I do both. It depends on the sport as to which I do more often. I'm pretty good with bases moves, but I want a portion of the season to go by first. I'll take Steam maker's O/N NBA moves. With NFL it's not hard, esp. MNF games around a 7 spread, or the late Sun game.
Many profitable middles ( in theory) abound in college anything with enough books, those I will play blindly. If it's there, in real time I take it some I plan for, some I just find.
Many profitable middles ( in theory) abound in college anything with enough books, those I will play blindly. If it's there, in real time I take it some I plan for, some I just find.
As an example say a game opens -4.5 and suppose 90% of the shops have the game at -5 and you see a -4.5 out there and you gobble it up.
Almost impossible that line will go BELOW -4.5 ........and a very good chance it will go over -5 if one thinks it should and possibly will go to -6.
This is just one of many scenarios one can employ as a scalper/middler.
---FISH---
Almost impossible that line will go BELOW -4.5 ........and a very good chance it will go over -5 if one thinks it should and possibly will go to -6.
This is just one of many scenarios one can employ as a scalper/middler.
---FISH---
The General said:
I've done that many times, but far more often it moves right. I eat the vig on occasion ( buy back same line), but I overbet my position to start with planning a buyback for a middle. I bet unequal middles. Money management is needed, you can't hang 10 % of BR out there and get stuck with a 5-point move against.
If stuck with a negative move that I couldn't really buy back ( reasonably), I'd ride it out and hope for the best, that's why there is a limit on what % -age you can bet, without taking great risk. 20 % is way too much ! I'll say about 8% max, on a move prediction for a middle, and that's pushing it hard, real HARD ! That's with planning to take the other side for a portion.
I keep normal bets around 2-4 %, sometimes less.
I like to calculate the return, if it hits, against my net cost. In the above case I need about 20-1. I just find it easier this way rather than thinking in terms of how much vig a half run is worth.
For example over 8.5 (-105) and under 9 (-105) costs $5 if 9 doesn't hit for a return of $100 if it does. I'm conservative and usually don't play anything worse than this.
For example over 8.5 (-105) and under 9 (-105) costs $5 if 9 doesn't hit for a return of $100 if it does. I'm conservative and usually don't play anything worse than this.
been researching some stuff all nite and ran across this. This is for anyone, the above example is based off of openers only, correct? What time does openers come out, and on average how long to you see a similar move like the above one. This wouldn't be advised off of middle of day move correct? Any more info on this would be great.Fishhead said:
ice man said:
Openers come out at OLY, CRIS, PINNY, and a few other places in the early evening prior to next days games.
Yes, early morning(like right now), are a great time to monitor lines and pick up valuable information.
TIP- In the middle of the day, many sportsbooks are sleeping because the action is SO SLOW they are not monitoring the action...........this is often a good time to pounce.
do you advise this at all on cbb (read where your not a huge cbb middler). I picked up Citadel +14 -105 (now -13/13.5 everywhere but Pinny) and Elon +3 -105 (-2.5 most places). Just small token bets while trying to learn this and if the line starts to go back my way I have some time to react. I feel the reduced juice is the key in this.
You guys are right, the juice is key in all of this. Amazing how many people look at everything first before that though. It's funny watching Pinnacle manipulate the sqaures where they want them with how they do their juice. Speaking of Pinnacle be careful with their leans, they got the best price on Citadel right now because they want you on that side. Many sharps will tell you that place is the toughest for them to beat. I got to say too, that Citadel team is horrible, might be the worst team in Division I, if not they are close.
One other thing that is just my opinion. Personally I am more comfortable taking leads when I go with the chalk in these big spread games. It's not always right and you figure what works best for you but I believe you got more upside when you do that early rather than taking the dog. For instance just glancing at LiveLines you can see that San Diego opened at 9-, now the price is 11- and 12. Gonzaga opened 8- and is 9- at most places, good chance it will go up some more. It's less likely you will take a +14 early and then see the line drop all the way down to 10 than it is the other way.
Don't get me wrong, this is my own opinion. I work best this way and have a better feel but it might be totally different for you. Follow it and come to your own conclusions. Tonight for example if given the choice I'd have taken the other side of the Citadel game at 13 (-105) if available rather than the +14 (-105) side of it. I think the game has a better chance of rising two points to 15 than it does dropping two points to 12. Could be wrong, let's see what happens. Like Fish says this stuff is so hard to get across typing in a forum, anyway good luck man.
One other thing that is just my opinion. Personally I am more comfortable taking leads when I go with the chalk in these big spread games. It's not always right and you figure what works best for you but I believe you got more upside when you do that early rather than taking the dog. For instance just glancing at LiveLines you can see that San Diego opened at 9-, now the price is 11- and 12. Gonzaga opened 8- and is 9- at most places, good chance it will go up some more. It's less likely you will take a +14 early and then see the line drop all the way down to 10 than it is the other way.
Don't get me wrong, this is my own opinion. I work best this way and have a better feel but it might be totally different for you. Follow it and come to your own conclusions. Tonight for example if given the choice I'd have taken the other side of the Citadel game at 13 (-105) if available rather than the +14 (-105) side of it. I think the game has a better chance of rising two points to 15 than it does dropping two points to 12. Could be wrong, let's see what happens. Like Fish says this stuff is so hard to get across typing in a forum, anyway good luck man.
