You guys are right, the juice is key in all of this. Amazing how many people look at everything first before that though. It's funny watching Pinnacle manipulate the sqaures where they want them with how they do their juice. Speaking of Pinnacle be careful with their leans, they got the best price on Citadel right now because they want you on that side. Many sharps will tell you that place is the toughest for them to beat. I got to say too, that Citadel team is horrible, might be the worst team in Division I, if not they are close.
One other thing that is just my opinion. Personally I am more comfortable taking leads when I go with the chalk in these big spread games. It's not always right and you figure what works best for you but I believe you got more upside when you do that early rather than taking the dog. For instance just glancing at LiveLines you can see that San Diego opened at 9-, now the price is 11- and 12. Gonzaga opened 8- and is 9- at most places, good chance it will go up some more. It's less likely you will take a +14 early and then see the line drop all the way down to 10 than it is the other way.
Don't get me wrong, this is my own opinion. I work best this way and have a better feel but it might be totally different for you. Follow it and come to your own conclusions. Tonight for example if given the choice I'd have taken the other side of the Citadel game at 13 (-105) if available rather than the +14 (-105) side of it. I think the game has a better chance of rising two points to 15 than it does dropping two points to 12. Could be wrong, let's see what happens. Like Fish says this stuff is so hard to get across typing in a forum, anyway good luck man.