Miami Dolphins vs NE Pats

[guju]

Have been salivating about watching this game since their first matchup many weeks ago. This was the game that turned it around for these fins. What are everybody's thoughts on this game???? Are these fins really in it to win it? Or are they just like the fins of old and will disappoint when it really matters. Would love to hear people's thought on the line itself, line movement, and public consensus... which seems pretty lopsided on NE. Started this season with $500 in an offshore and have grinded my way to $5000. Thinking about playing this game heavy if some of the masters on this site agree. Thanks a bunch.

ope:

G

 

[HonestRob]

I'm no master but I like Miami in a tight one. I love that the line has moved to even and I'm hoping Miami is an underdog before game time. I'm considering putting 1 unit on it but I think it's a close game so I may lay off it.

 

[midman2161]

To be honest with you guys I think Belichick's Patriots have lost back-to-back games once since like 2003...

 

[midman2161]

And I couldnt even SAY when the last time they were swept by a divisional opponent in a season.

 

[HonestRob]

To be honest with you guys I think Belichick's Patriots have lost back-to-back games once since like 2003...

Those kind of stats don't mean much to me. I look at the matchups. Even so that streak was with Tom Brady at QB. Cassel is playing well now but he's not Tom Brady. Streaks are meant to be broken. :toast:

Really though I think it's real close and won't be surprised no matter who wins. I'd only be surprised if it's a blowout one way or the other.

 

[jonnyg4508]

And I couldnt even SAY when the last time they were swept by a divisional opponent in a season.

I'd say they are a tad different team than they have been in the last handful of years...

no?

 

[dirtymoose]

anytime NE is getting points ill take NE to the bank

 

[709]

I'm no master but I like Miami in a tight one. I love that the line has moved to even and I'm hoping Miami is an underdog before game time. I'm considering putting 1 unit on it but I think it's a close game so I may lay off it.

:think2::think2: What is your point ? You like Miami in the tight one, then you said you think it's a close game so you may lay off it.
I am no master but... do not understand.

 

[BAGIANT]

If you look at all the things that favor NE, you just have to ask yourself WHY has the oddsmaker made the Fins a 2 point fave? Now don't ask yourself this question when the game is over and you already took the Pats. Evaluate it BEFORE the game so you can either bet the Dolphins or PASS the game.

There are those of you out there in football land that think this is a mortal lock. Just ask yourself when's the last time Vegas gave out Xmas presents in November?

 

[HonestRob]

:think2::think2: What is your point ? You like Miami in the tight one, then you said you think it's a close game so you may lay off it.
I am no master but... do not understand.

I like Miami to win a close game. I may lay off it as in not make a bet on it because it's a close game and I think either team can win but I give a slight edge to Miami. Surely you bet games where you think your pick has a big edge and don't make bets on the games where you believe the edge is small?

Is "tight one" some type of betting lingo I'm not familiar with? By tight one I mean a tight or close game.

 

[709]

If you look at all the things that favor NE, you just have to ask yourself WHY has the oddsmaker made the Fins a 2 point fave? Now don't ask yourself this question when the game is over and you already took the Pats. Evaluate it BEFORE the game so you can either bet the Dolphins or PASS the game.

There are those of you out there in football land that think this is a mortal lock. Just ask yourself when's the last time Vegas gave out Xmas presents in November?

That's why you "stuckinvegas"
Reply of your quote: It was November 2nd that Vegas gave out Xmas present
Pats was underdog +6 and they COVERed

 

[midman2161]

Those kind of stats don't mean much to me. I look at the matchups. Even so that streak was with Tom Brady at QB. Cassel is playing well now but he's not Tom Brady. Streaks are meant to be broken. :toast:

Really though I think it's real close and won't be surprised no matter who wins. I'd only be surprised if it's a blowout one way or the other.

Since they took the leash off Cassel the Pats passing attack has been one of the best in the AFC.. anyone that saw his 400 yard passing performance can attest to that. People were lining up to take the Bills after the Pats got smoked by the Chargers, and Belichick didnt allow them to come close to losing that game. The fact that this is close to a must-win for the Pats cannot be overlooked, and having watched this team over the course of the season would be surprised if they dropped both to Miami this season.

 

[Sea-Urchin]

Both teams are 6-4 and are in the playoff hunt. Miami has the advantage because they are at home. This is a revenge game for the Pats and Belichick is well aware of the phins "wildcat" plays. You bet the Pats are prepared to defend the wildcat if they have to.

One side note, Pats are 3-4 when Cassel passes for more than 30 attempts and 3-0 when Cassel passes under 30 attempts. So the Pats will use their running game and they're ranked 8th in that catagory.

I will play the Pats with the points due to coaching and players experience. Teams rarely fool belichick twice.

 

[guju]

stuckinvegas.... i was thinking along the same lines as you... that there is something fishy about the line. And this season has been no mystery... trying to take advantage of a fishy line has led to a loss. I think the oddsmakers are trying to lure tons of Pats action (as they already have). You know what they say... if it looks too good to be true... it usually is. Yes the pats covered as a 6-point dog but usually these lure lines always fall the other way. I love that the line continues to go in the Dolphins favor. It will be intersting to see if the oddsmakers HOLD the line with the Dolphins as the favorite despite the continued massive lopsided action on the Pats. I agree that this Dolphins team is no real superpower... but neither is this pats team. I agree that Bellicik is a master coach and will be prepared for this division battle... but Im visiting family down in S. Fla right now and this Dolphins team has a lot of heart and they want this one bad.

Would love to hear all other members thoughts. Chime in

Thanks
G

 

[savannahslim]

FWIW--I'm showing -1 & pick'em across the board.
Should be interesting.

 

[Snookslayer]

At the beginning of this season, Dolphin fans (like myself) didn't think Miami would even finish above .500 and now here we are in Week 12 and the Fins are in the playoff hunt. I don't think there are a lot of Fish fans who actually believe (or expect) that the Dolphins will eventually clinch the playoffs, but it sure is nice to play meaningful games like this matchup late in the season.

I foresee the Dolphins doing what they've been doing... mainly running the football with success. The question in my mind is whether Miami can slow down Cassel, Moss and Welker. Miami ranks 21st in pass defense and 22nd in overall INT's and considering how the Patriots passing game came to life last week, ya gotta think New England will score some points.

Kinda seems like one of those games where the last team with the ball wins.

 

[Coin86]

Me thinks Bill Belichick comes up with a great game plan, I mean giving all the extra days he has had to prepare his team... I really think this is a huge revenge game for Belichick and he will have his players motivated like never before.

Miami can't beat NE twice in one season, imo.

This will be the third straight home game for Miami.
Week 10: W over Seattle, 21-19
Week 11: W over Oakland, 17-15

Miami has played 2 straight games at home against 2 horrible teams, winning both games, but barely. Now we have NE coming in... a doubly pissed off NE who lost to the Jets on Thursday. The thing I like about that game is that NE was in a 24-6 deficit at one point, came back and then lost in OT. I think they are capable of rebounding quite soundly.
Then there is the loss to Miami in week 3 when Miami used the wildcat formation and suprised the hell out of NE. Belichick will be ready for the wildcat this time.

-Matt Cassell has greatly improved since week 3
-Bill Belichick tends to thrive in games like this, especially when playoff spots are on the line and when he is playing against divisional rivals. He has also had extra time to prepare for this game.
-Three straight home games for Miami.... I do NOT see this as an advantage to be honest.

 

[Snookslayer]

I don't know if it'll have any bearing on the game, but one thing is for sure.... ALL the pressure is on the Patriots in this game. God willing, they'll choke it.

 

[Loren78]

If you look at all the things that favor NE, you just have to ask yourself WHY has the oddsmaker made the Fins a 2 point fave? Now don't ask yourself this question when the game is over and you already took the Pats. Evaluate it BEFORE the game so you can either bet the Dolphins or PASS the game.

There are those of you out there in football land that think this is a mortal lock. Just ask yourself when's the last time Vegas gave out Xmas presents in November?

^ What he said...

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

I'm sick of seeing people talk about fishy lines. Here's a crazy idea: maybe your opinion of the two teams in question is way off. Maybe that line you think is so fishy, is in fact very accurate, and the line you would give the game is terribly off.

What are these huge advantages the Pats have over Miami? Miami has no advantages over New England? The opening spread suggested even teams. It seems people want teams to become what we thought they would be before the season despite what has ACTUALLY happened. Miami is quite obviously a better than .500 team this year. And it appears NE is the same. Miami crushed NE earlier in the year, in NE, and people still think NE is a lot better than Miami? I realize that game does not mean Miami is way better, but a lot of people are throwing that game out in their evaluations. Which is idiotic.

Again, I will stress, when you think a line is fishy it means YOU are the one who's evaluation is off, not Vegas'. Same situation with Indy-SD. People are ready to accept Indy is back to power but SD is not. All year Vegas has inflated San Diego's line, treating them like a top five team, and they open as 3 pt faves at home and people are going crazy over 'fishiness?' Try to be a little objective and realize you are the one who's wrong..