Markie Mark's 2006/07 NHL Chase Thread

[MarkieMark+]

how do you usually fare in the begining of the year mark?

Last year was a bit of a rough start so this year I am going to pick my spots for the first few weeks.

 

[MarkieMark+]

k, I'm having a little trouble understanding this chase...

Let's say the Isles actually win tonight and we lose 1.58 units... do we bet against the Isles next game to win 1.58 units? or more?

If the Islanders win I will bet against the Islanders the next game and wager enough to win back the 1.58 Units that were lost PLUS 1 Unit of Profit.

 

[stosh]

thanks Mark...

I'm a small bettor right now, just over $400 in my off shore account.
What should I risk on the Isles? Risk $7.90 to win $5?

 

[globulous]

stosh.. play with whatever you're comfortable with.
Since this is a chase system, you could wind up risking quite a bit on certain games, so i'd be risking about 1-2% on each game... given your bankroll, to win $5 is about right.

 

[stosh]

stosh.. play with whatever you're comfortable with.
Since this is a chase system, you could wind up risking quite a bit on certain games, so i'd be risking about 1-2% on each game... given your bankroll, to win $5 is about right.

:toast:

 

[globulous]

Markie:
a couple of questions...

1) when the home team is a dog, do you risk 1 unit to win 1+, or do you risk TO WIN 1 unit?

2) do you have any data from past years on how heavy home favourites have fared in your system? say -200 or heavier?? if we run into trouble this year, this is where it will come from.

 

[gskiman]

I will be playing an AWAY SERIES CHASE for the entire 2006-07 NHL Season. This type of system requires a lot of discipline, as you will not get rich quick. You can, however, realize a profit of somewhere between 150 and 200 UNITS over the course of a season if you follow the rules - that's where the discipline comes in.

The whole idea behind this system is simple. Hockey is a very physical game and with an 84 game schedule there is a lot of travel required over short periods of time, often leaving teams battered, bruised and tired - especially when they are on extended road trips. With this in mind, teams embarking on a road trip that is a MINIMUM of 3 games long have a very low chance of winning all of the games on that road trip.

Each road trip is called a SERIES. The goal for each SERIES is to realize a PROFIT of 1 UNIT by betting AGAINST the traveling team. If the traveling team wins the 1st game of the road trip then the CHASE begins. You now must wager enough on the 2nd game of the SERIES to recover the lost wager on the 1st game while still trying to realize a PROFIT of 1 UNIT. If, by chance, the traveling team were to sweep their road trip, you must then take the total amount lost in that SERIES and spread it out evenly across the remaining SERIES. This will give you a NEW GOAL that will be MORE THAN 1 UNIT PROFIT per SERIES. Raising the target for PROFIT in the remaining SERIES will ensure that you are still going to PROFIT by 1 UNIT for each SERIES over the course of the entire season. A SERIES that is longer than 3 games may produce the opportunity to win more than 1 UNIT of profit over the entire road trip. These SUB-SERIES may be played when the travelling team loses a game but still have a minimum of 3 games remaining in their road trip.

I have identified 161 SERIES for the 2006-07 NHL Season. This means that if the rules are followed, a profit of 161 UNITS or more could be realized once April rolls around. It was a long haul last year but I produced a PROFIT OF OVER 130 UNITS as documented in this forum.

I suggest starting with a bankroll of 100 UNITS to play this system. It doesn't matter what your unit size is but you must identify how much you can afford and NOT CHANGE YOUR UNIT SIZE FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON. If you can afford $200 then your unit size should be $2 and you must stick with this unit size or else you may end up losing in the end.

I also combine my knowledge of hockey to cap some of these games. If you play this system blindly you may be headed for disaster. All plays will appear in this thread along with some capping information and explanations when required. It all starts on October 5th but I will pick my spots at first since most Series losses tend to come early in the season. All betting lines will be taken from Pinnacle.

Good Luck and let's make some money!
MM

If you played this chase system in 05-06, how many times did the road team sweep their road series, and that was out of how many road series?That would be the key indicator to predicate 06-07 success on.

 

[gskiman]

OK sheet is ready, however it's too big to post on the RX...
2.5mb...

if anyone wants it, let me know at mooseheed2001@yahoo.ca

Tracks
SU sys. record
Sys. record by game # in a series
SU home record vs. road team
Road record (including ALL games, not just sys. plays) vs. home teams per game #
Situational records (3 days off, b2b, 3 in 4a, 3 in 4b)
Schedule by date,
Schedule by team

all you need to do is enter the lines and scores, and record with W or L when a series Wins or when it loses

gl to all
GAME ON!

Will I need excel to print the spread sheet?

 

[WhiteFalcon]

2 down...

Two down.. 98? 128? to go??
are we going to cap it this year or just go until the last month.
:toast:

WhiteFalcon.

 

[WhiteFalcon]

Sub Series?

So will the NYI series move to 1b sub series now since there are three games left on the road, and agaisnt better teams? (Although, the trip from SJ to LA has two days rest, and the trip from LA to ANA is not worth measuring)

Thanks, WhiteFalcon

 

[MarkieMark+]

Check out this link for your answer

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=307262&page=32

If you played this chase system in 05-06, how many times did the road team sweep their road series, and that was out of how many road series?That would be the key indicator to predicate 06-07 success on.

 

[MarkieMark+]

So will the NYI series move to 1b sub series now since there are three games left on the road, and agaisnt better teams? (Although, the trip from SJ to LA has two days rest, and the trip from LA to ANA is not worth measuring)

Thanks, WhiteFalcon

Yes, the NYI Series will become a Sub-Series No. 1a since they still have 3 games left on their road trip against some pretty good teams.

 

[MarkieMark+]

Thursday, October 6

TOTAL TO DATE: 2-0 (+2.00 UNITS)
Nice start to the Chase System with a 2-0 night.

Current Goal Per Series = 1.00 UNITS

PENDING SERIES
None

NEW SERIES
Series 1a - NY Islanders
Series 4 - Boston
Series 5 - Montreal

TODAY'S PICKS - All lines are from Pinnacle (OT Included)
FLORIDA -109 over Boston (Wager 1.09 Units to Win 1.00 Units)
BUFFALO -169 over Montreal (Wager 1.69 Units to Win 1.00 Units)

MM

 

[MarkieMark+]

^ Date should be:

Friday, October 6

 

[iceman33]

Mark could you bet against the canucks this game since they lost the first of three even though you didn't play game one?

 

[MarkieMark+]

Mark could you bet against the canucks this game since they lost the first of three even though you didn't play game one?

Vancouver beat Detroit last night by a score of 3 to 1.

The Vancouver Series is a NO PLAY for me. I think the Canucks are going to have a great start this year.

 

[passingthewind]

Markie, are all games played on ml with you and no puck lines correct?

 

[stosh]

quick start last night... glad we can reload on the islanders

 

[globulous]

Will I need excel to print the spread sheet?

Yes.. you'll need Excel to view the sheet, let alone print it..
FHMesq and I are working on it and we're trying to upload it to a webpage to make it readily available to everyone.. no idea when this will be done.. hopefully in the next week or so, but it will be updated with all the games, lines/scores when it is.

 

[stosh]

4 plays... + 4 units...

:money8: :money8: :money8: :money8: