Today my algorithm picked two games, HOWEVER each game has one key (defined as an injury or illness to the first or second leading scorer) player questionable. Past results have proven the chances of the OVER picks winning are materially lowered (if key players don't play).
The two games I'll continue to monitor for update are as follows:
Tuesday, January 24, 2017 Rutgers Maryland 130.5
***Star player and top scorer, Melo Trimble is questionable with an illness (didn't practice Monday). He is also one of the best players in the nation and his absence would be missed. The line on paper looks very low and no surprise my algorithm picked up on the potential value (but I think Melo not playing has been incorporated into the line). Again, out of precaution, no OVER pick will be made yet.
Tuesday, January 24, 2017 Kent State Northern Illinois 139.5
****Second leading scorer, Jaylin Walker is questionable and missed the last game while he nurses a foot injury. Again, out of precaution, no OVER pick will be made yet.
PLEASE feel free to pass along any updates on the status of these two players, as I'm a one man show lol.
Bounce back on Wed...
OVER Combined Totals Pick(s):
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Michigan State Nebraska 135.0
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Florida International Old Dominion 122.5
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Valparaiso Wisc Milwaukee 131.0
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Arizona Oregon State 128.5
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Eastern Illinois Tennessee State 136.5
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Portland State Idaho 145.0
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Michigan State Nebraska 135.0
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Florida International Old Dominion 122.5
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Valparaiso Wisc Milwaukee 131.0
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Arizona Oregon State 128.5
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Eastern Illinois Tennessee State 136.5
Thursday, February 2, 2017 Portland State Idaho 145.0
Going to start assigning the number of units to play for each pick. Prior to this all plays were played with the same number of units.
OVER Combined Totals Pick(s): Units to Play (1 to 6)
Wednesday, February 8, 2017 1 St. Peter's Quinnipiac 137.0
Wednesday, February 8, 2017 5 Idaho Northern Colorado 134.0
OVER Combined Totals Pick(s): Units to Play (1 to 6)
Wednesday, February 8, 2017 1 St. Peter's Quinnipiac 137.0
Wednesday, February 8, 2017 5 Idaho Northern Colorado 134.0
yes...great question actually...and i'll be honest with you varkeyboy...i'll start by saying how pissed i am with MYSELF....short story is i should have been doing some sort of variation of units per play all along. overall it is what it is and you are what your record says you are. im early in my posting pick career so definitely going to take this on the chin and improve going forward.
details-i have equations and i analyze and look at them before each season (see what continues to work and what doesn't work anymore, what isn't consistent etc.)...i choose the equations i want to base my picks on...the actual formula i use to tell me what games are good picks was TO BE FRANK...flawed...NOT WRONG but it's not maximizing the pick...in lamen terms my picks were not weighted (this pick is a 3 unit, this pick is 1 unit, this pick is a 5 unit), rather all picks were weighted the same...one pick is one unit...but that is not what the formula was designed to do...overall an oversight on my part...PRETTY FREAKING STUPID OVERSIGHT AND IM STILL PISSED ABOUT IT...i am glad this came to light though and i can now ensure picks across ncaab, nccafb, mlb, etc. are USED to it's fullest!
details-i have equations and i analyze and look at them before each season (see what continues to work and what doesn't work anymore, what isn't consistent etc.)...i choose the equations i want to base my picks on...the actual formula i use to tell me what games are good picks was TO BE FRANK...flawed...NOT WRONG but it's not maximizing the pick...in lamen terms my picks were not weighted (this pick is a 3 unit, this pick is 1 unit, this pick is a 5 unit), rather all picks were weighted the same...one pick is one unit...but that is not what the formula was designed to do...overall an oversight on my part...PRETTY FREAKING STUPID OVERSIGHT AND IM STILL PISSED ABOUT IT...i am glad this came to light though and i can now ensure picks across ncaab, nccafb, mlb, etc. are USED to it's fullest!
