Apollo Kid said:Try,
My disclaimer: This is not a conference I follow closely. That said, here is how I see this playing out:
Arizona and Washington are in. That's 2. Both will be high seeds.
So that leaves Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona St to try and figure out here.
Let's start with Arizona St. because they are the easiest. They're done unless the win the Pac 10 tourney. They have an RPI of 58, a SOS of 59 and they have to play at Washington, at Washington St. and and home vs. Arizona. That's just murder. Though circle the Arizona game because they're gonna be getting a ton of points at home in the last game of the season. It will probaby be senior day or something like that.
Here's where this prop gets tricky:
UCLA -- RPI 38, SOS 17. They have to play rivals USC, go to ND and then play both Oregons at UCLA. That's not too bad of schedule left. I think they are in.
Stanford -- RPI 35, SOS 33. They have to go play at the Oregons and then finish with the Washingtons on their home floor. Because of their scheduling, I'm not sure they get in despite what has turned out to be a good season.
ESPN is projecting Stanford gets in as a 4. They're probably right. But I don't want to lay -500 on the over. That's real gamble with a huge risk/small reward to bank on Stanford getting in this thing.
But there is one other wild card here: The conference tourney. This is one crazy conference and having someone come out of nowhere to win it is a possibility. The tourney is at the Staples Center in LA, by the way.
Personally, I don't like the play. I hope this helped.
AK
thanks for the notes. I love this wager over for my reasons and all the things above. IT cant lose. push or win 95%. its -500 but it should be -1500.