LMFAO--KANSAS #1 in RPI,.......

trytrytry · Feb 22, 2005

Apollo Kid said:
Try,

My disclaimer: This is not a conference I follow closely. That said, here is how I see this playing out:

Arizona and Washington are in. That's 2. Both will be high seeds.

So that leaves Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona St to try and figure out here.

Let's start with Arizona St. because they are the easiest. They're done unless the win the Pac 10 tourney. They have an RPI of 58, a SOS of 59 and they have to play at Washington, at Washington St. and and home vs. Arizona. That's just murder. Though circle the Arizona game because they're gonna be getting a ton of points at home in the last game of the season. It will probaby be senior day or something like that.

Here's where this prop gets tricky:
UCLA -- RPI 38, SOS 17. They have to play rivals USC, go to ND and then play both Oregons at UCLA. That's not too bad of schedule left. I think they are in.

Stanford -- RPI 35, SOS 33. They have to go play at the Oregons and then finish with the Washingtons on their home floor. Because of their scheduling, I'm not sure they get in despite what has turned out to be a good season.

ESPN is projecting Stanford gets in as a 4. They're probably right. But I don't want to lay -500 on the over. That's real gamble with a huge risk/small reward to bank on Stanford getting in this thing.

But there is one other wild card here: The conference tourney. This is one crazy conference and having someone come out of nowhere to win it is a possibility. The tourney is at the Staples Center in LA, by the way.

Personally, I don't like the play. I hope this helped.

AK

thanks for the notes. I love this wager over for my reasons and all the things above. IT cant lose. push or win 95%. its -500 but it should be -1500.

BuzzRavanaugh · Feb 22, 2005

Fishead-

Iowa State is in, and a team nobody wants to play. Stinson is a guy that would create problems for a bunch of teams in the tourney.

Looks like Northern Iowa and Wichita State fighting it out for the second Valley bid if they get one.

Illini · Feb 22, 2005

Wichita St just flushed their bid down toilet the last week and a half. UNI has no shot. SIU will be the only team that gets in if they win the conference tournament. It's a shame too, because it is a quality conference, one of the best mid-major conferences in the country.

Fishhead · Feb 22, 2005

Illini said:
Wichita St just flushed their bid down toilet the last week and a half. UNI has no shot. SIU will be the only team that gets in if they win the conference tournament. It's a shame too, because it is a quality conference, one of the best mid-major conferences in the country.

I think 3 teams have a shot at making it.

---FISH---

D2bets · Feb 22, 2005

SIU is the only sure bet to get in at-large if needed. Wichita St. would have a shot at-large if they finish season strong and lose in the conf finals. So the conference theoretically could get 3 in, but I'd say it's more likely they get 1 than 3. I suppose if UNI can win AT SIU and AT Witchita then maybe theoretically they could sneak in, but even that would be iffy. I think if SIU runs the table they need to get a significant seed, maybe as high as #6. SIU is a very good team that can make noise in the tourney.

viking611 · Feb 22, 2005

Apollo Kid said:
Fish - I agree about Iowa. But if Iowa beat Illinois, they very well could have been back on the bubble. I don't have my schedule in front of me, but I think they have Mich. St. this week too. Those two games were the crucial ones when I was handicapping the prop. After Mich. St, it's slim pickings.

Iowa does not play Mich St. Play at Minnesota, at Penn St, home vs Ohio St, at Michigan. They go 4-0, they are sitting at 8-8 and 20-9 for the season. win a couple in the tourney and that is 22 wins and back on the bubble. I honestly do not think that winning 4 in a row will be enough to get them in though but do think they can win the big 10 tournament. Have given the Illini a scare twice this season with the second one without the best player in the big 10. The big ten tourney regularly features a team ranked #4 or lower in the final. Every year since it started actually, i think.

Fishhead · Feb 22, 2005

UNI is 18-8 overall and 3rd in the conference with an RPI ranking of 46.

I feel if they split with WSU and SIU.........they are in the BIG DANCE.

---FISH---
ps- If Iowa State can continue their roll it can only help UNI.......as they defeated Iowa State earlier in the year.

viking611 · Feb 22, 2005

Only two out of MVC. SIU and whoever wins tournament. If SIU wins tournament then most likely whoever they play in the final if UNI or Wichita. If SIU makes final and play anyone besides those two teams, probably looking at one from Valley. Wichita has shot themselves in the foot and need to make a run.

Fishhead · Feb 22, 2005

One team out of the MVC........CMON!

That would be a travesty!

---FISH---

D2bets · Feb 22, 2005

Fish, UNI lacks a quality road win. I think the only way the conference gets 3 is if someone other than those top 3 wins the tourney, in which case either Witchia or UNI would get an at-large, but not both.

I think I can agree that the MVC should have at least 2 teams dancing; SIU and one other.

BuzzRavanaugh · Feb 22, 2005

The Missouri Valley has some nice wins early, would be a shame to get only one in. Bracket buster killed Wichita State.

Don't think they will get three in. I bet they would get two in and Creighton ought to have something to say about it as well as WSU, UNI.

viking611 · Feb 22, 2005

There are only 3 teams that are worthy a mention and not all 3 will get in. There just isn't enough spots for them all. SIU is a lock. UNI and Wich are the only other two and if someone else wins the tourney, I can't see them getting in. CReighton actually has better SOS and has 4 wins v. RPI top 50 whereas UNI has one win and lowere SOS.

Fishhead · Feb 22, 2005

Your telling me the 8th best conference in America out of 31 conferences is only going to get ONE team?

---FISH---

THREE of these FOUR should make it........and DEFINETLY TWO of them.

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WICHITA STATE
CREIGHTON
NORTHERN IOWA

viking611 · Feb 22, 2005

most likely 2 teams.

Illini · Feb 22, 2005

Fishhead said:
One team out of the MVC........CMON!

That would be a travesty!

---FISH---

Sad, but true. UNI has no shot, and I stand firm on that. Wichita has a shot, but they have severely hurt themselves lately. They need to win at SIU and make the finals of the tournament.

BuzzRavanaugh · Feb 22, 2005

I think the Big Conferences should be punished. The PAC 10 and Big 10 should get three in. The Big 12 4 or 5. SEC 3 or 4.

The mid majors should be rewarded this year. Teams like Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Pacific and Utah State are the story this year not these middle of the road big conference teams.

viking611 · Feb 22, 2005

Illini said:
Sad, but true. UNI has no shot, and I stand firm on that. Wichita has a shot, but they have severely hurt themselves lately. They need to win at SIU and make the finals of the tournament.

UNI has a shot because they play AT southern and AT wichita. Win both of those and they are looking good. Will it happen though...probably not.

Fishhead · Feb 22, 2005

viking611 said:
UNI has a shot because they play AT southern and AT wichita. Win both of those and they are looking good. Will it happen though...probably not.

Still believe if they just split these two games, they will have a better than 50-50 shot at making the tournament.

PS- Inside tip.............NCAA SELECTION COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN BOB BOWLSBY, the current Athletic Director at IOWA, is the former AD at NORTHERN IOWA.

BuzzRavanaugh · Feb 22, 2005

Fishhead said:
Still believe if they just split these two games, they will have a better than 50-50 shot at making the tournament.

PS- Inside tip.............NCAA SELECTION COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN BOB BOWLSBY, the current Athletic Director at IOWA, is the former AD at NORTHERN IOWA.

Great inside tip- he does have to leave the room when they talk about Iowa but can stay in when they talk UNI. Makes sense.

Bowlsby is maybe the sharpest AD in the country. Makes great hires.

Another inside tip: If Alford were to leave (for Indiana, as was speculated) Bowlsby has Mark Turgeon (Wichita State coach) on his list for replacements.

GreenDoberman · Feb 22, 2005

MVC gets one or two, two if SIU loses in tourney.

WCC gets two, should be Zags and St. Mary's.

CAA gets one, whoever wins tourney. Hopefully it will be ODU, if not they are in serious touble.

Big West gets one, two only if UOP loses in conf. final. Utah St. on short end of stick again.

Mntn. West gets two, Utah and whoever else shakes out.

Just my opinion.