Lets see who is the first SHARP to answer this!!

[BillyB+]

Peep<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>number frequency ptc.
1-----------133 4.1%
2-----------216 6.7%
3-----------186 5.8%
4-----------164 5.1%
5-----------200 6.2%
6-----------211 6.6%
7-----------293 9.1%
8-----------195 6.1%
9-----------178 5.5%
10---------176 5.5%
11---------147 4.6%
12---------123 3.8%
13---------127 4.0%
14---------100 3.1%
15----------84 2.6%
16----------77 2.4%
>=17----663 20.6% <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[Fishhead]

Billy B-

My numbers almost to a tea!!

 

[drunkguy]

Those numbers are absolutely worthless in determining how much a half point is worth. I believe P88p is well aware of this fact ( we have discussed before) and posted these numbers "as is" for anyone interested. Why don't the tell you anything?

1) the percentages listed have no relation to the point spread. In fact, for "7" that indicates when either the favorite or the DOG wins outright by 7.

2) the games listed are only for games lined on an integer. Any lines including half points were omitted. That may or may not throw off the accuracy of the data.

3) not sure where he got his lines from, and this adds more variablilty. Open or closing numbers? Sharp book or square book? Consensus line or are there some outlying rogue lines thrown in? This is important to consider, because if his database has a game lined at 4, but it was definitely available at 5 at some books, then where does it fit into the data? Should it count as a buy to 4, or a buy off 5?

Anyone interested in finding these values should examine Stanford's Wong's treatment of this problem in sharp sports betting. There is a lot of subjectivity in determining these values depending on the paramenters you establish...

 

[lurkerforages]

Fishhead, what are you talking about?

The numbers that are posted by Billy B have absolutely no relationship to the worth of a half point in the NBA?

How can they be "your numbers almost to a tea"?

Please explain what you mean?

 

[lurkerforages]

Drunk, you beat me to it.

I have all the openers and closers and chose to use the closing numbers.
As an example tonights hawks game went off at +5.5 and you liked the mavs what is -5 worth instead of -5.5?
I know the hawks won, this is just an example.
Looking at the data -5.5 pushed on -5 4.38% of the time which has made it worth over 9 cents!

 

[drunkguy]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by lurkerforages:
Drunk, you beat me to it.

I have all the openers an closer and chose to use the closers.
As an example tonights hawks game went off at +5.5 and you liked the mavs what is -5 worth instead of -5.5?
I know the hawks won this is just an example.
Looking at my data -5.5 pushed on -5 4.38% of the time which has made it worth over 9 cents!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

That is exactly the way to do it. Although the most accurate way to go, most don't have the patience to analyze every number like that.

 

[lurkerforages]

I use microsoft access to program in the formulas to bring back any results I need.
I have results for every spread both home and away, chalk and dog.
When I am shopping for the best number the chart by my computer will quickly tell me what each half has been worth and how many cents its worth.
Same with first half and quarter lines.
As a matter of interest I also have values for 1 whole point if I am lucky to catch a move.

 

[BillyB+]

lurker- great info to have. you find any big differences between H/A? i.e. When the line is 7 it hit's approx 5.2% of time. Is it higher home or away?

 

[Tekari]

lurker do you think you could provide the stats on percentage of push at each number ATS?

 

[lurkerforages]

Yes, sure there is.

Ask Fishhead he seems to have all the numbers

 

[wilheim]

Fish will be back in the AM.


wil.

 

[ATX]

can someone please convincingly explain how past results are predictive?

does anyone ever look at how much the average NBA line is off on sides?

I agree with a lot of drunkguy's points. Why wouldnt the value of a half point be different for every single event?

 

[Fishhead]

Lurker & Drunk

I finally agree with you.

Obviously for example, a 10 point favorite is going to fall on 10 much more than a 3 point favorite will fall on 10.

Yes, I use the % numbers for each INDIVIDUAL SPREAD. I use a UNIQUE set of variables to arrive at those percentages. My percentages will NOT be the same as WONG's, or anybody elses.

I believe my percantages to be PLENTY accurate for the way I PERSONALLY middle or scalp the NBA. It works for me, and am content with my numbers.

By the way, even though the number SEVEN is the strongest number in theory, the numbers TWO and FIVE are much more valuable to me for making money with what I do PERSONALLY...... A CANNOT LOSE PLAY LONGTERM....and no you will not drag it out of me in this forum as to why. Sure some of you sharps know why anyway.

If so, keep to yourselves please.

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Anyone interested in finding these values should examine Stanford's Wong's treatment of this problem in sharp sports betting <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


Why he claims that a point is worth 3.5% on average and that is too low.

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
What is a half a point worth on first half bets?
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I do not follow the NBA closely or actively bet it,

but I do know that about 50.5% of the points scored in an NBA game are in the first half, and a point is worth around 3.8% on a game. Should be able to figure it out from there.

 

[lurkerforages]

SPV, we are talking about point spreads not totals.

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

Yea I know, just trying to use some basic logic,

if slightly over half the points are scored in the first half,

it could logically mean that the 1st half values are worth slightly more than twice what the game values are, second half values slightly less.

But like I said I do not follow this stuff and was more thinking out loud than anything.

 

[lurkerforages]

seems silly to guess when you can just look at a database and it will tell you how often a number pushed or was half a point away.
As far as I can remember Wong has done no work on point spreads in the NBA.
I believe he has done some work on game totals.

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

Wong is on record as stating apoint is worth on avg 3.5% on sides in the NBA.

It is not a guess, it is called deductive reasoning. It is the foundation of modern mathmematics.

I have zero desire to debate the merits and drawbacks of databases again.
They are great for telling you what already happened.

 

[Fishhead]

I have studied WONG till I am blue in the face over the years and he has a good basis by which to go by.

MANY of you are making this WAY to difficult for the purpose all these numbers and percentages serve a purpose for!!


PUTTING THEM TO USE IS THE KEY TO MAKING MONEY.

PS- Do not take WONGS theory on how to play the banking slot machines as gospel......

When you all are buying me a beer at the bar, I will give you the more precise lowdown on them.