The above example by sportsavant is a great example where this problem totally breaks down.
You cannot lump all games together and say and extra half is worth 8.5 cents because you will lose your ass.
Getting an extra half on a double digit chalk in the NBA wil not even get you to 50% winners let alone the 51.45% needed to breakeven at -106.
You cannot lump all games together and say and extra half is worth 8.5 cents because you will lose your ass.
Getting an extra half on a double digit chalk in the NBA wil not even get you to 50% winners let alone the 51.45% needed to breakeven at -106.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SportSavant:
I assume what he is saying is that if 19 of 20 books have -11 -110 but you find by chance -10.5 -105...then over the long haul its a winner....
but I am just guessing............<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
What were saying is -10.5 -115 is even better than -11 -110.
I assume what he is saying is that if 19 of 20 books have -11 -110 but you find by chance -10.5 -105...then over the long haul its a winner....
but I am just guessing............<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
What were saying is -10.5 -115 is even better than -11 -110.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>To spell it out for you, for the most part I/we are referring to middling/scalping. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
No you are NOT!
Thats completely false and you know it.
As described by Fezzik you are talking about playing on one side blindly against the line.
No you are NOT!
Thats completely false and you know it.
As described by Fezzik you are talking about playing on one side blindly against the line.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>BASICALLY, on average, a half point in the NBA is worth between 6 and 7 cents on spreads of 10 and under!
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
That is totally false only the 1 and 2 are worth as little/less than this.
The average half is worth over 8 cents in this range.
These numbers are computed from a database of games from 1985 to the present day.
Why all the "PLEASE" and "WOW" you are treating me like I do not know what I am talking about when it is plain to see that I do.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
That is totally false only the 1 and 2 are worth as little/less than this.
The average half is worth over 8 cents in this range.
These numbers are computed from a database of games from 1985 to the present day.
Why all the "PLEASE" and "WOW" you are treating me like I do not know what I am talking about when it is plain to see that I do.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>How much of an advantage at -105 do you have if you find an NBA line off by 1/2 point?
Looking for the mathmatics. Also which 1/2 points are the most important <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Answering question B first, half pts in games late in the season between teams still in the hunt or playoffs with spreads<10(<7 would be worth even more but it is very close), I would consider most important.
Question A is a little confusing, at -105 the hold is a little less than 2.5%, avg NBA half point is worth around 1.9%
Looking for the mathmatics. Also which 1/2 points are the most important <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Answering question B first, half pts in games late in the season between teams still in the hunt or playoffs with spreads<10(<7 would be worth even more but it is very close), I would consider most important.
Question A is a little confusing, at -105 the hold is a little less than 2.5%, avg NBA half point is worth around 1.9%
lurker--Things have changed since 1985 dude!!!!
Do you really think games with totals of 259 have the same meaning as from 1996 and beyond?????
In the NFL, do you use the same statistics BEFORE the 2-point conversion as now???
Without being a smartass or sounding outlandish, TRUST ME I KNOW WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT WITH NBA SPREADS!!
Do you really think games with totals of 259 have the same meaning as from 1996 and beyond?????
In the NFL, do you use the same statistics BEFORE the 2-point conversion as now???
Without being a smartass or sounding outlandish, TRUST ME I KNOW WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT WITH NBA SPREADS!!
No, sorry you are coming acc**** as a smartass.
You don`t have to insult me or evade my questions when you are clearly incorrect.
I am not a "dude" either.
You are saying each half in the NBA is worth between 6 and 7 cents on halfs of 10 or less that is not even close as that is between 2.83% and 3.27%.
Halfs in the NBA hit at around 4% acc**** the board from spreads under 10 not including PK.
I just did from 1994 till the present day and its still around 4% or between -108 and -109.
Please tell me which years you want me to use?
Let me ask you are question to see how sharp YOU are?
How much is a half point worth on first half lines on average over the last 10 years?
Also you might want to answer Journeyman on his thread about slot machines.
Tell him how banking machines like cherry pies work.
You don`t have to insult me or evade my questions when you are clearly incorrect.
I am not a "dude" either.
You are saying each half in the NBA is worth between 6 and 7 cents on halfs of 10 or less that is not even close as that is between 2.83% and 3.27%.
Halfs in the NBA hit at around 4% acc**** the board from spreads under 10 not including PK.
I just did from 1994 till the present day and its still around 4% or between -108 and -109.
Please tell me which years you want me to use?
Let me ask you are question to see how sharp YOU are?
How much is a half point worth on first half lines on average over the last 10 years?
Also you might want to answer Journeyman on his thread about slot machines.
Tell him how banking machines like cherry pies work.
