Let's Break Down Thursday Night Football

[DNoonan]

Had some time today and thought I would see if we can get some discussion and thoughts going on the eagles/panthers game......I have included some my my thoughts and some stats below.....who do you like?

Week	Favorite	XLS Line
6	Carolina Panthers	-0.6
Offensive Stats		Defense
	Home	Away				Home	Away	League Average
	Carolina	Philadelphia	League Avg			CAR
Item	2017	2017	2017		Item	2017	2017	2017
# of Games Played	5	5	4.8		# of Games Played	5	5	4.8
Points Scored	21	27.4	21.9		Points Allowed	18.8	19.8	21.9
Yards Req'd Per Point	16.6	15.0	16.0		Yards Per Pt Allow	14.57	17.47	15.3
RANKS					RANKS
Yards Gained (1=GOOD)	18	3	17		Yards Allow (1=BAD)	31	11
Rushing Yards Gained	20	5	17		Rushing Yards Allow	28	32
Passing Yards Gained	15	10	17		Passing Yards Allowed	29	4
Yards/Game - Total	349.4	411.2	351		Yards/Game - Total	274	346	334
		+61.8					+72
Yards/Game - Pass	250.8	272.4	243.2		Yards/Game - Pass	194.2	283.2	227.1
		+21.6					+89
Yards/Game - Rush	98.6	138.8	107.6		Yards/Game - Rush	79.8	62.8	106.7
		+40.2				+17
Passing Attempts per Game	30.4	35.4	34.2		Passed on Per Game	33.8	39.4	34.3
Completion %	66%	62%	63%		Completion % Allowed	70%	66%	64%
Yards Per Pass Att	8.3	7.7	7.1		Yards Allow Per Pass Att	5.7	7.2	6.6
	+0.55						+1.44
Yards Per Pass Completion	12.4	12.4	11.2		Yds Allow Pass Compl	8.2	11.0	10.4
	+0.03						+2.74
Rushing Attempts per Game	29.0	30.8	26.3		Rushing Att per Game	19.8	16.0	126.7
Yards per Rush	3.4	4.5	4.1		Yards per Rush	4.0	3.9	4.0
		+1.1				+0.11
Sacks Taken	15	13	12		Sacks	17	12	12
3rd Down Conversion %	50%	53%	40%		3rd Down Conversion %	38%	35%	40%
Fumbles Lost (pass)	x	x	x		Forced Fumbles	4	4	4
Fumbles Lost (rush)	2	1
INTs Thrown	5	3	4		INTs (takeaways)	1	3	4
Penalties #	24	35	34
Penalty Yards	218	327	286
1st Downs/Game	20.2	23	20
Passing TDs	8	10	7		Passing TD Allowed	7	8	7
Rushing TDs	2	3	3		Rushing TD Allowed	3	3	3

Carolina Offense vs. Philly Defense

Statistically, teams have been able to throw the ball on the eagles, although some of that comes against prevent defenses in meaningless games. Carolina has been around league average in terms of overall efficiency, requiring an average of 16.6 yards to score a point. Philly’s defense has had some bend but don’t break to it with teams having to gain on average 17.47 yards to score a point vs. league average of 15.3 yards. Teams have not rushed the ball much against the eagles as they have been leading and/or facing passing teams. Cam’s completion percentage is above league average at 66% and philly’s d is allowing a surprising 70% completion rate year to date.

Philly Offense vs. Carolina Defense

The Eagles offense has been explosive year to date scoring well above league average at 27.4 points per game and gaining a healthy 4.5 yards per carry on the ground and Blount has been rolling. The Eagles have been able to control time of possession this year, but go up against a Carolina defensive including allowing ~60 less yards per game than league average and putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks as evidenced by 17 sacks year to date. Carolina is a much better D than Philly has been shining against, will be a big prime time test.

Other Factors

Penalties - Carolina has been very disciplined, racking up only 24 penalties year to date (although 7 were last week). Philly has taken around the league average at 35. This works out to be about two more penalties per game than Carolina (and has cost them 110 more yards season to date).

Turnovers – Cam has protected the ball better the last few games, but has five INTs this year vs. only one pick on D. Wentz has thrown three and they have picked three.

Strength of Schedule

Philly: @Redskins, @Chiefs, Giants, @Chargers, Cardinals
Carolina: @49ers, bills, saints, @pats, @lions

Key Injuries: Olsen (Car); Johnson (right tackle) in concussion protocol for philly

Situation: short week, can be tough on road team....Carolina coming off back to back road victories........philly's last three opponents....meh...this will be a step up

Formula Line: Carolina -0.6
Current Line: Carolina -3.5
Value: Philly (2.9 points)

Pick: 1* philly +3.5

 

[Loves2kickass]

It will be a close game either way. Not worth a bet tonight. Much better selections on Sunday.

 

[DNoonan]

Not the strongest play but 3.5 was enough for me to take a position based on my numbers. There are a lot of ways this could get there. Carolina could be up 10 and go into a prevent and Wentz and co could easily backdoor this at 3.5. Plus Cam could also have another rough night and eagles could control the ball and win turnover battle. Eagles secondary isn't great but they haven't allowed many deep (20+ yards) passes.

i don't love the situation for philly and recognize it will be harder to move the ball but I like that the line is down to 3 now

 

[Betallsports]

Not the strongest play but 3.5 was enough for me to take a position based on my numbers. There are a lot of ways this could get there. Carolina could be up 10 and go into a prevent and Wentz and co could easily backdoor this at 3.5. Plus Cam could also have another rough night and eagles could control the ball and win turnover battle. Eagles secondary isn't great but they haven't allowed many deep (20+ yards) passes.

i don't love the situation for philly and recognize it will be harder to move the ball but I like that the line is down to 3 now

I also took the position on Philly last night at +3.5
Think both teams match up well

Even though Cam has done well against the NFC East in the past, I see the Eagles having a slight edge on Offense, and even on Defense.

Looking back at each teams loss this season, Philly hung tough with KC ( @KC ) and the panthers lost to NO at home.
I think we all know the difference between those two teams.

anyway I think the +3.5 is a gift, and wouldn't be shocked if Philly won this one SU

Good Luck with your Plays

 

[DNoonan]

Thanks BAS. Good luck to you tonight and into the weekend. Let's do a 5 man gold contest team next year. I couldn't get it organized in time this year.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I took Philly at +3.5 too when it came out. Still not impressed with Carolina offensively and think Philly is 1 of the better teams in the league. It's 3 now so that isn't of much help to too many people.

One thing I will say is that Lane Johnson is 1 of the best RT's in the league. The Eagles offensive splits w/ and w/o him last year are pretty big and he had been playing great this year. He's likely going to be out with the concussion.


If you bet props I'll say Alshon Jeffrey at 57.5 -125 is 1 of the better props on a primetime game I've seen this year. Really surprised that isn't higher. Carolina has had a funnel defense this year that makes them easier to attack passing than running and they've defended the TE pretty well which should steer distribution away from Ertz and to the WR's. Jeffrey's had the toughest CB matchups in the league so far this year. I think he's a 75-85 yards per game receiver in this offense when healthy.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Line is down to 3. IMO the best you can do if you take the +3 is tie. No way Philly wins this game straight up. It could land on a 3.

 

[AlistairCookie]

If you bet props I'll say Alshon Jeffrey at 57.5 -125 is 1 of the better props on a primetime game I've seen this year. Really surprised that isn't higher. Carolina has had a funnel defense this year that makes them easier to attack passing than running and they've defended the TE pretty well which should steer distribution away from Ertz and to the WR's. Jeffrey's had the toughest CB matchups in the league so far this year. I think he's a 75-85 yards per game receiver in this offense when healthy.

How do you like it at 62.5+130?

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah, that works. The 55 cent improvement from -125 to +130 is worth more than 5 yards.

GL

 

[AlistairCookie]

Dang I drove home from work and now it's 52.5 -115. ... makes me wonder if something is going on cause the it's lower AND cheaper

 

[PatsFan1283]

Weird, I see -130/+100 at the 57.5 that it was earlier. Not sure why that line you have is so rogue.

Game total dropped but it's mostly dropping from Carolina's implied team total end which isn't too bad.

 

[AlistairCookie]

Just checked again, that's at 5dimes. Still 52.5

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah I checked a few different places and its still high 50's everywhere. Not sure what 5D is doing, usually their prop lines are similar to other places.

I don't use them anymore though and they've been cutting off inactive accounts so can't check it myself.

 

[thebiggbird]

down a yard + juice at heritage

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah I saw down like 1-2 yards at most places but 52 a outlier

edit: you didn't get it the first time at 62.5 +130?

yeah pop it at 52.5....I mean taking my opinion out of it that's just a very rogue line. I will say this, if it moved across the board 10 yards lower I wouldn't like it as much, when the market is moving against you that strong sometimes you gotta just face the fact your thesis wasn't as strong as you thought. But it isn't close to 52.5 anywhere else.

 

[AlistairCookie]

So obviously you love that even more, gonna give it a shot.

 

[StevieRay]

Over 4.5 catches -105 and over 59.5 -110 I see

 

[PatsFan1283]

yeah weird for 5D to be that off. Hope they don't cancel if it hits, you never know w/ them. But I doubt it.

I'll see Bovada put out some rogues on props but 5D usually is pretty consistent with the others.

 

[DNoonan]

Good luck guys. Hope you hit the prop!!

 

[AlistairCookie]

:stocker:

Ty Pats