Let The Madness Begin ...never too early

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NC ST became only the 2nd team in history to win 5 games in 5 days to win their Conf Tourn....

The 1st team to do so was back in 2011 UConn ........ Won Title !

That UConn team and this NC ST .... very different numbers with their stats

UConn was a much better team on paper

Just something I dug up , is all .... maybe NC ST can make a Sweet 16 Run ?
 

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I'm not playing all trends ... just sharing

4 Seeds
6-14-1 ATS (30%) when favored by 8.5 points or more.
Play against all 4 Seeds if you like the trend


No. 5s remain extremely vulnerable when playing as 6-point favorites or, more recently, 18-8 SU but 8-16-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2009....Play against Sd St ...




Power conference schools are 24-18 SU and 13-27-2 ATS (32.5%) as No. 5 seeds in the first Power conference schools are 24-18 SU and 13-27-2 ATS (32.5%) as No. 5 seeds in the first round since 2008....
Play Against Ats Wisconsin

No. 6 seeds are favored by 4 points or more, as Unders
are 19-5 (79.2%) in such games since 2009, with games producing just 128.7 PPG on average and totals of about 138.2...Under's in these games ... Byu / Texas Tech

8 Seeds ...As small favorites of 3 points or less over No. 9’s,...., No. 8 seeds are on a brutal skid of 8-15 SU and 5-17-1 ATS (22.7%)!...Plays against ... Neb and Fau
 

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Charleston .... 20-0 this year if they score 80 pts .......... vs that Bama D .......hmmmmm
 

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My numbers on Ats Winners for each seed change yearly ... so just beware

no such thing as a lock ........ I don't wager on all my trends , as well...

Been doing March Madness for over 40 years ...but that don't mean shit

when it comes to this time of year ...LOL

Stats from Kenpom that I use ....


9 Def Stats Used9 Off Stats Used
Adj. EfficiencyAdj. Efficiency
Turnover %:Turnover %:
Off. Reb. %:Off. Reb. %:
FTA/FGA:FTA/FGA:
3P%:3P%:
2P%:2P%:
FT%:FT%:
Block%:Block%:
Steal%:Steal%:


Let's start with 16 Seeds

I'm only going to post the teams that I would play against

Some possible 16 Seeds have play-in games ...fyi

Since 2002 there have been 43 .... # 16 Seed Ats Winners

1) ....Stetson .... 41/43 ....# 16 Ats Winners had 6 or Less Def Stats Over 250 Rank out of the 9 used that are posted above...

Stetson has 7 Def Stats Over 250 Rank

the 2 other # 16 Ats Winners that had 7 Def Rank Stats over 250

had a Kenpom SOS Rank of of 217 or lower ..... Stetson SOS Rank 267

Stetson would be a play against

2) ....Howard ( Play-In Game )

Only 2 ....# 16 Ats Winners had an Adj Def Eff Rank above 300 with an SOS Rank 315 or Higher

both of those team which covered had an Adj Off Eff Rank 173 or Lower

Howard had an Adj Off Eff Rank of 192

Howard would be a play against

3)...Wagner ( Play-In Game )

ZERO ....out of 43 .....# 16 Ats Winners had an Adj Off Eff Rank above 304

Wagner Adj Off Eff Rank 334

Wagner would be a play against


Recap

Play against # 16 Seeds if available

Stetson

Howard

Wagner

This is by far NO LOCK ... only stats I've stored over the years that I'm sharing

for the 1st time this year

If not much interest ... I likely won't post as much ...so feedback appreciated

BOL this year gents

Boomer


Next up 15 Seeds
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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Sounds interesting to me.
 

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15 Seeds

Stats used for 15 seeds from Kenpom

Adj OAdj DEO Turn%D Turn%
0 Reb%D Reb%O FTA/FGAD FTA/FGA
0ff 3P%Def 3P%Off 2P%Def 2P%
Off Blk%Def Blk %Off Steal%Def Steal %
SOS


By my numbers ....like I mentioned ....these can change yearly

Play Against these 15 Seed Team Ats Wise according to my numbers only ...... your call

Since 2002...there have been 42 .... # 15 Seed Ats Winners

1) ... St Peter's .. back in 2022 when they went to E8 they had an Adj Eff Margin + 7

this year ... Adj Eff Margin Minus - 2 ...hmmmmm

1st strike against .... ZERO .... # 15 Seed Ats Winners had an Adjusted Offense Efficiency Rank above 260

St Peter's Adj OE Rank # 305

2nd strike against .... ZERO .... # 15 Seed Ats Winners had an Off 2 Point Rank above 318 Rank

St Peter's Off 2 Point Rank 359


Recap

Play Against St Peter's

Next Up 14 Seeds
 

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14 Seeds

Stats Used

Adj OAdj DEO Turn%D Turn%
0 Reb%D Reb%O FTA/FGAD FTA/FGA
0ff 3P%Def 3P%Off 2P%Def 2P%
Off Blk%Def Blk %Off Steal%Def Steal %
SOS

Since 2002 .... there have been 36 ..... # 14 Seed Ats Winners

Play Against these 14 Seeds .....if you like the Trend ....your call

1) ... Morehead St .... ZERO ....# 14 Seed Ats Winners failed to meet at least

6 out the 17 Average Ranked Stats used above .... Morehead St has 5 Met Avg Stats

now this can change this year if they cover vs Illini ...... just sharing

2) ...Colgate ....

Strike # 1 ) ....ZERO ....# 14 Seed Ats Winners had an Adj OE Rank above 195
Colgate Adjusted Offense Efficiency Rank 211 .......
if Colgate Covers ...a new number is established for Adj Off Rank

Strike # 2 )....ZERO ....# 14 Seed Ats Winners had an Off FTA/FGA ( Free Throw Attempted / Field Goals Attempted)
Rank of above 304 Rank
Colgate Offense FTA/FGA Rank # 318 Rank

Strike # 3 ) .....ZERO ....# 14 Seed Ats Winners had an SOS Rank above 327
Colgate SOS Rank 340


Oakland

this one can go either way ...but posting my angle regardless

Only 1/36 ....# 14 Seed Ats Winners had just 2 Ranked Stats in Top 100 out of the 17 used above
that one team had an SOS Rank 131 ........... Oakland SOS Rank 198

personally lean Kentucky here - 12 - 139 juice

Recap

Play Against ..........if you like the trends ........your call

Morehead St

Colgate

Lean against Oakland

Next Up ... if I get 3 thumbs up ... 13 Seed
 

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K. Boom....appreciate all your added info and thought's my friend....
here's to a great start to M/M.....indy
 

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13 Seeds

Using these 16 Stats ... Off and Def ...then the 1 SOS Stat

Adj OAdj DOff Turn %Def Turn %
Off Reb %Def Reb %Off FTA/FGADef FTA/FGA
OFF 3P%Def 3 P %OFF 2 P%Def 2 P %
Off Block %Def Block %Off Steal %Def Steal %
Sos

Since 2002 .... 33 .....# 13 Seed Ats Winners

All 13 Seeds have a shot at covering the spread ...

Yale and Samford best chances to cover

then Charleston

Least chance ... Vermont .... but they can cover ... chances are not as good as top 3 above ...imo
 

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12 Seeds

Your Call / My Poss Play Against 12 Seeds

35 .... # 12 Seed Ats Winners

ZERO ...# 12 Seed Ats Winners had 7 or more Ranked Stats 200 to 299 ....out of 17 Used

UAB has 7 Ranked Stats between 200-299 Rank

ZERO ....# 12 Seed Ats Winners had an Adj DE of above 104

UAB has an Adj DE 108

ZERO ....# 12 Seed Ats Winners had Def To % below 17%

UAB Def TO % 16%

3 Strikes against UAB to cover the spread

Anything can happen ....just trying to help
 

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Oregon Coach Altman

has taken the Ducks to Ncaa Tournament 7 times

he has won all 7 of his 1st round games

and 5 out of 7 Years reached S16
 

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11 Seed Ats Winners since 2001
48 ….. Number # 11 Seed ATS Winners
40 out of 48 or 83% ….# 11 Seed Ats Winners
had an Adjusted Efficiency Margin of 12 or Higher
48 ….. Number # 11 Seed ATS Winners
40 out of 48 or 83% ….# 11 Seed Ats Winners
had 8 or Higher Top 100 Rank Stats out of 18 Used
48 ….. Number # 11 Seed ATS Winners
38 out of 48 or 79% had 1 or Less Rank Stats
above 300 Rank out of the 18 Used
48 ….. Number # 11 Seed ATS Winners
44 out of 48 or 92% # 11 Seed Ats Winners
had an SOS Rank of 169 or Lower
The Highest # 11 Seed SOS Rank # 224 to Win Ats

Only 11 seed that looks a bit suspect .... Duquense

but NC ST only 6 Top 100 Rank Stats ....not impressive

2024 11 SeedsAdj EMTop 100 RankOver 300 RankSOS 169 or Lower ?
Duquense96197
New Mexico1910185
NC ST136058
Oregon138067
 

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One of my trends that I sent to the guys on my list

Before The Tournament
Off 3 Point %
10 Straight Champs Shot 36 % or Higher

I dropped a bunch of Teams from the list because I have other trends that support to delete from winning the Title

Baylor ... 41%
Kentucky ..41%
Purdue ...40%
Alabama...38%
Texas ..38%
Msu.. 37%
Duke ..37%
Arizona ...37%
FAU..37%
Conn...37%
Mia Fla ...37%
Would be useful to know all teams who qualify
 

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Best coaches against the spread in NCAA Tournament (in field this year): Dana Altman 15-6-1 ATS John Calipari 32-24-3 ATS John Groce 7-1 ATS Hubert Davis 6-0 ATS Dan Hurley 9-3 ATS Data since 2005
 

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3/18/2024
Since 2016, the Mountain West conference is 7-16 ATS
…............................................................................................................................................................
Since Arizona won the national title in 1997, no team west of Texas has won it all.
…............................................................................................................................................................
Since seeding began in 1978, every NCAA champion
100% of them — to play in a conference tournament
made it to at least their conference semifinals (won at least one game).
This would Eliminate from Winning Title
Tennessee
Kentucky
…............................................................................................................................................................
Teams with 60% or more of the bets on the spread are 71-96-5 (42.5%) against the spread
in the NCAA Tournament since 2016.
These "public" bets have been .500 ATS or worse in six straight NCAA Tournaments.
…............................................................................................................................................................
First half unders in the NCAA Tournament overall are 187-141-6 (57%) since 2018.
When those games are played in the Round of 64 or First Four, they are 102-74-3 (58%) to the under.
…............................................................................................................................................................
Least Profitable Coaches ATS in NCAA Tournament since 2009 ($100/wager):
Lon Kruger: 5-12 ATS ($712)
Tony Bennett: 7-14 ATS (-$731)
Rick Barnes: 3-15 ATS (-$1,219)
…............................................................................................................................................................
Zags …. last eight games in the NCAA Tournament overall, the Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS
dating back to the Final Four in 2021.
…............................................................................................................................................................
 

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