good numbers to look at here....www.chef-de-race.com
:howdy: OK, here we are with about one week before the call to the post.......... so now a few personal comments for the possible entries...
Alpha----- only off the board was last year's juvenile encountering problems at the gate... believe he is a strong win contender but may be hurting after his last race
Bodemeister----- bucking history with no 2 yo starts....will have plenty of company up front and believe he will fade in the final furlong, but he is firing on all cylinders at the moment
Creative Cause----- has the pedigree and class to go the distance....8/8 in the money never losing by more than 1 length in all of those races....strong win contender
Daddy Long Legs----- very slow UAE derby...don't expect much here
Daddy Nose Best----- proven contender over all surfaces...should be a play in the exotics
Done Talking----- his stalking style may help him finish on the bottom of some tickets
Dullahan----- doesn't like dirt, no polytrack BG winner has ever finished in the money for the derby.... but .....
El Padrino----- this horse loves the slop, very interesting longshot...if off track pound him
Gemologist----- has the pedigree to run all day, but think he is still a little inexperienced for this big dance
Hansen----- will a grey win this year's derby ?... he has the heart ...
I'll Have Another----- may be a play on my exotic tickets , not sure about his win chances yet
Liaison----- believe his derby chances are slim at the moment
Mark Valeski----- possible foot injury after LA derby....have to see how he is working
Optimizer----- think he is on outside looking in at the moment
Prospective----- off track contender, but on a fast track he is much below the rest of the field
Reveron----- think he is on outside looking in at the moment
Rousing Sermon----- could catch the bottom of the exotic wagers ??
Sabrecat----- saw him drifting in the stretch of the Ark derby....shows a possible tired horse
Take Charge Indy----- the Borel factor.....have to be a contender for this matter alone at Churchill hiding on the inside rail
Trinniberg----- will run as fast as he can for as long as he can, and then will end up at the bottom of the field.... may burn some of the contenders with him
Union Rags----- great win candidate on fast and off track surface....has all of the tools and likes to sit off the pace
Went The Day Well----- has the connections of Animal Kingdom .....think he is a very live longshot
Alpha----- only off the board was last year's juvenile encountering problems at the gate... believe he is a strong win contender but may be hurting after his last race
Bodemeister----- bucking history with no 2 yo starts....will have plenty of company up front and believe he will fade in the final furlong, but he is firing on all cylinders at the moment
Creative Cause----- has the pedigree and class to go the distance....8/8 in the money never losing by more than 1 length in all of those races....strong win contender
Daddy Long Legs----- very slow UAE derby...don't expect much here
Daddy Nose Best----- proven contender over all surfaces...should be a play in the exotics
Done Talking----- his stalking style may help him finish on the bottom of some tickets
Dullahan----- doesn't like dirt, no polytrack BG winner has ever finished in the money for the derby.... but .....
El Padrino----- this horse loves the slop, very interesting longshot...if off track pound him
Gemologist----- has the pedigree to run all day, but think he is still a little inexperienced for this big dance
Hansen----- will a grey win this year's derby ?... he has the heart ...
I'll Have Another----- may be a play on my exotic tickets , not sure about his win chances yet
Liaison----- believe his derby chances are slim at the moment
Mark Valeski----- possible foot injury after LA derby....have to see how he is working
Optimizer----- think he is on outside looking in at the moment
Prospective----- off track contender, but on a fast track he is much below the rest of the field
Reveron----- think he is on outside looking in at the moment
Rousing Sermon----- could catch the bottom of the exotic wagers ??
Sabrecat----- saw him drifting in the stretch of the Ark derby....shows a possible tired horse
Take Charge Indy----- the Borel factor.....have to be a contender for this matter alone at Churchill hiding on the inside rail
Trinniberg----- will run as fast as he can for as long as he can, and then will end up at the bottom of the field.... may burn some of the contenders with him
Union Rags----- great win candidate on fast and off track surface....has all of the tools and likes to sit off the pace
Went The Day Well----- has the connections of Animal Kingdom .....think he is a very live longshot
These are just a few short comments....
let's see what the next few days bring us....be well everyone....
let's see what the next few days bring us....be well everyone....
:think2: What do all of these horses have in common.............
.....Alpha
.....Bodemeister
.....Done Talking
.....Daddy Nose Best
.....Dullahan
.....Gemologist
.....Hansen
.....Reveron
.....Sabrecat
.....Went the Day Well
Well, they are the entries this year that have had their Best Beyer Figure on their last prep race before the Derby.......
Just another little tidbit....
.....Alpha
.....Bodemeister
.....Done Talking
.....Daddy Nose Best
.....Dullahan
.....Gemologist
.....Hansen
.....Reveron
.....Sabrecat
.....Went the Day Well
Well, they are the entries this year that have had their Best Beyer Figure on their last prep race before the Derby.......
Just another little tidbit....
:think2: OK, here are latest workouts for the contenders..........for the past 2 weeks or so.......
.................................distance.........time..............track..........
I’ll Have Another..............6f.............1:13.80.............Hollywood
Take Charge Indy.............5f............1:00.47.............Palm Meadows
Liaison............................6f............1:12.92.............Churchill
Bodemeister....................5f............1:00.62.............Churchill
Creative Cause................5f............1:00.20..............Hollywood
Daddy Nose Best.............6f.............1:13.70.............Churchill
Isn’t He Clever................4f...............51.60..............Churchill
Mark Valeski...................5f...............59.63..............Churchill
Optimizer.......................4f...............48.42..............Churchill
Sabrecat........................5f............1:02.62..............Churchill
Trinniberg......................5f.............1:02.40.............Calder
Rousing Sermon.............7f.............1:27.20.............Hollywood
Went The Day Well.........6f..............1:14.40............Keeneland
Union Rags....................4f................47.40.............Keeneland
El Padrino......................5f..............1:00.56............Palm Meadows
Gemologist....................5f..............1:00.81............Palm Meadows
I’ll Have Another............6f..............1:13.60............Hollywood
Take Charge Indy...........5f..............1:01.47............Palm Meadows
Creative Cause...............5f..............1:01.20...........Hollywood
Daddy Nose Best...........5f...............1:00.20...........Churchill
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.................................distance.........time..............track..........
I’ll Have Another..............6f.............1:13.80.............Hollywood
Take Charge Indy.............5f............1:00.47.............Palm Meadows
Liaison............................6f............1:12.92.............Churchill
Bodemeister....................5f............1:00.62.............Churchill
Creative Cause................5f............1:00.20..............Hollywood
Daddy Nose Best.............6f.............1:13.70.............Churchill
Isn’t He Clever................4f...............51.60..............Churchill
Mark Valeski...................5f...............59.63..............Churchill
Optimizer.......................4f...............48.42..............Churchill
Sabrecat........................5f............1:02.62..............Churchill
Trinniberg......................5f.............1:02.40.............Calder
Rousing Sermon.............7f.............1:27.20.............Hollywood
Went The Day Well.........6f..............1:14.40............Keeneland
Union Rags....................4f................47.40.............Keeneland
El Padrino......................5f..............1:00.56............Palm Meadows
Gemologist....................5f..............1:00.81............Palm Meadows
I’ll Have Another............6f..............1:13.60............Hollywood
Take Charge Indy...........5f..............1:01.47............Palm Meadows
Creative Cause...............5f..............1:01.20...........Hollywood
Daddy Nose Best...........5f...............1:00.20...........Churchill
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:howdy: Something I read the other day concerning the Pedigrees of these horses....
" Thanks. The truth is that most of these colts, on pedigree, could handle the 10f distance. Then you have to temper that with their form and running style and how they're training.
The easy pedigree tosses are Mark Valeski, Done Talking, Daddy Long Legs, Rousing Sermon, and Trinniberg.
The ones I'm very suspect of at the distance are Bodemeister, Hansen, Take Charge Indy, and Liaison.
The remainder should handle the 10f just fine if they're good enough: Alpha, Creative Cause, Daddy Nose Best, Dullahan, El Padrino, Gemologist, I'll Have Another, Prospective, Sabercat, Union Rags, Went the Day Well.
Top 3 pedigrees that will love the distance: Alpha, El Padrino, I'll Have Another. "
" Thanks. The truth is that most of these colts, on pedigree, could handle the 10f distance. Then you have to temper that with their form and running style and how they're training.
The easy pedigree tosses are Mark Valeski, Done Talking, Daddy Long Legs, Rousing Sermon, and Trinniberg.
The ones I'm very suspect of at the distance are Bodemeister, Hansen, Take Charge Indy, and Liaison.
The remainder should handle the 10f just fine if they're good enough: Alpha, Creative Cause, Daddy Nose Best, Dullahan, El Padrino, Gemologist, I'll Have Another, Prospective, Sabercat, Union Rags, Went the Day Well.
Top 3 pedigrees that will love the distance: Alpha, El Padrino, I'll Have Another. "
With exactly a week until the big race I am no closer to putting together any derby wagers then I was a week ago.
A huge field that makes me feel racing luck will determine the outcome more than talent and training. Also so many good horses in this large field that I find myself having trouble throwing many out...especially on attempting to put together Tri tickets and super's.
For example, I feel a horse like Prospective could run the race of his life and come on late and get in the exotics....but I like so many other horses ahead of him that it would cost me a lot of money to include everyone I feel might have a chance to hit the tri or super......so if I put tickets together and leave off a horse like Prospective ( due to bankroll concerns ) and then he hits the board I would kick myself for not including him...
For me personally this Derby has me stumped to the point I might look at another way to try and make money on it...meaning I might handicap the race before and after the derby to make a few selections in those races and then go ALL on the derby leg of the Pick 3....and then just sit back and enjoy the race kowing I will have ALL in the Derby on my Pk 3 tickets...anything over 8 or 10-1 winning the Derby could make the Pick 3 worth a good shot.
But as it stands right now...If the derby was to be run this afternoon I would put Union Rags to win on top of a Tri ticket with ALL and ALL...and then also get another tri ticket with Union Rags 2nd. with ALL on top and ALL for 3rd place...
I feel the last race of Union Rags was the best thing that could have happened to him and to his jockey....if there is one horse I feel will be ready for the run for the roses it will be Union Rags and since I can't seem to narrow down other selections I would use ALL on my tri's and then just sit back and enjoy the race and root for Rags to hit 1st or 2nd along with a bomb or two. ( like Prospective )
But with a week still to go my mind could change of course but if it was run today that is what I would do cause I can't seem to narrow down my selections but do like Rags.
TomTom,
Yep, this is going to be a wide open affair............think it might be ripe for some big exotics.............. you make a very good point about Union Rags....and his last race............ I was also thinking that race might have been the best thing to happen to him coming into the derby..........
...... with your tri tickets, you might also want to go all-all-URags....so then he he comes in the money with any bombers along you hit it............ hate to see he come in 3rd....and you only have him on top or second..... ( just speaking from my own experience when I did kick myself...)
......be well............
Yes, wheeling Rags in all 3 spots would be ideal and will do that if my bankroll allows it....but then if I place him in Tri ALL/ALL/Rags I know then I will want to also put him 4th with for the super's but in order to do that would need to use some key horses to come in above him...
But with my being so confused on this field I think I will stick to using Rags 1st and 2nd with ALLS in tri's but if I have a good week and have a better than expected derby bankroll for sure I will also place him to show in a ALL/ALL/Rags tri...It would really hurt to see 2 bombs come in 1st and 2nd with Rags hitting 3rd and the Tri pays like $25k and I am sitting there rooting for Rags but am still a loser with first and second only. That would surely suck
Strange derby it is going to be...I actually feel it would be great if a woman jockey wins this derby....It would be great for the sport but not for the majority of gamblers I am afraid.
Rosie/ALL/ALL..lol.... Would be a monster payoff and I would be very happy for her....Rosie, Rags and Perspective. In this 20 horse field I feel anything can happen...
But with my being so confused on this field I think I will stick to using Rags 1st and 2nd with ALLS in tri's but if I have a good week and have a better than expected derby bankroll for sure I will also place him to show in a ALL/ALL/Rags tri...It would really hurt to see 2 bombs come in 1st and 2nd with Rags hitting 3rd and the Tri pays like $25k and I am sitting there rooting for Rags but am still a loser with first and second only. That would surely suck
Strange derby it is going to be...I actually feel it would be great if a woman jockey wins this derby....It would be great for the sport but not for the majority of gamblers I am afraid.
Rosie/ALL/ALL..lol.... Would be a monster payoff and I would be very happy for her....Rosie, Rags and Perspective.
In this 20 horse field I feel anything can happen...:howdy: What post positions have produced the most Derby winners ...?
Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:
1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 10
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 4
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 2
OK, so what does that tell us ? Just another tidbit, that may have provide the extra little help in choosing one or the other.....
Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:
1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 10
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 4
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 2
OK, so what does that tell us ? Just another tidbit, that may have provide the extra little help in choosing one or the other.....
if your going to use the post position wins ,take into consideration,when did they start having 20 horse fields. also,11 black,big races like this one at long distances usually turns into a jockeys race.do you have any good stats of jockeys in the derby..for,,,,,,w p s....the old saying been there done that
elevenblack
this horse is bred for the dirt though
Dullahan----- doesn't like dirt, no polytrack BG winner has ever finished in the money for the derby.... but .....
Dullahan
He was a solid fourth in the Juvenile, and he beat Hansen last time out in the Blue Grass. That race was on a synthetic surface, though, so running on dirt will make things different.
He’s bred to handle the dirt, though, and he looked fine on the Churchill surface at the Breeders’ Cup. He’s the best deep-closer in the field, and if all the speed in the field materializes then that could be a very good style to have.
He also has three-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux aboard.
this horse is bred for the dirt though
Dullahan----- doesn't like dirt, no polytrack BG winner has ever finished in the money for the derby.... but .....
Dullahan
He was a solid fourth in the Juvenile, and he beat Hansen last time out in the Blue Grass. That race was on a synthetic surface, though, so running on dirt will make things different.
He’s bred to handle the dirt, though, and he looked fine on the Churchill surface at the Breeders’ Cup. He’s the best deep-closer in the field, and if all the speed in the field materializes then that could be a very good style to have.
He also has three-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux aboard.
