Kentucky Derby Thoughts & Plays

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

if he gets in..big IF...i throw out the Ark derby and look a race back to the Remsen when Optimizer looked shot out of a cannon at the 1/8 pole...he came 5 wide and that was just too much ground to make up on the winner Secret Circle...now i am not saying for the win mind you....this is a horse to put on your tri and super tickets...this horse has beaten all these contenders along the way already....he debuted up at the spa on the turf and won at stupid odds of 27-1....i have no idea what or if something happened between DWayne and Robby Albarado.... Robby was riding him fantastic..then all of a sudden 3 jock switches in the last 5 races....i freaking hate jon court w/a passion in a big spot...but like i said, this isn't for a win this is for exotic tickets...i kinda like as an early pick Union Rags..unfortunately, i believe he will be the favorite...we'll see

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: OK, here are a couple of more of the criteria that I consider.............

These numbers are the Race Ratings and the Class ratings for the last 3 races each possible entry ran. I take the average of the 3 and they are as follows....


.......................................Last 3 Average Race Ratings

Union Rags.................................119.0
Hansen......................................118.6
Liaison.......................................118.6
Take Charge Indy........................118.6
Dullahan.....................................118.6
Creative Cause............................118.6
Rousing Sermon..........................118.3
I’ll Have Another..........................118.3
Alpha.........................................118.0
El Padrino...................................118.0
Prospective..................................117.6
Reveron.......................................117.6
Trinniberg....................................117.6
Optimizer.....................................117.3
Bodemeister.................................117.3
Done Talking................................117.3
Sabrecat......................................117.3
Daddy Long Legs...........................117.0
Gemologist...................................117.0
Secret Circle.................................117.0
Daddy Nose Best...........................116.6
Mark valeski..................................116.3
Isn’t He Clever...............................116.3
Went The Day Well.........................114.6


.........................................Last 3 Average Class Ratings

Union Rags........................................122.0
Bodemeister.......................................122.0
Alpha................................................121.6
Hansen..............................................121.6
El Padrino...........................................121.3
Creative Cause....................................121.0
Take Charge Indy................................121.0
Gemologist.........................................120.6
Dullahan.............................................120.6
Mark valeski........................................120.6
Reveron..............................................120.3
Trinniberg............................................120.0
I’ll Have Another..................................120.0
Secret Circle........................................120.0
Daddy Nose Best..................................119.6
Prospective..........................................119.3
Rousing Sermon...................................119.3
Sabrecat..............................................119.3
Done Talking........................................119.0
Liaison.................................................119.0
Isn’t He Clever......................................119.0
Went The Day Well................................118.0
Daddy Long Legs...................................117.0
Optimizer.............................................117.0

----looking forward to next weeks post position draw.....​

 

[elevenblack301]

if he gets in..big IF...i throw out the Ark derby and look a race back to the Remsen when Optimizer looked shot out of a cannon at the 1/8 pole...he came 5 wide and that was just too much ground to make up on the winner Secret Circle...now i am not saying for the win mind you....this is a horse to put on your tri and super tickets...this horse has beaten all these contenders along the way already....he debuted up at the spa on the turf and won at stupid odds of 27-1....i have no idea what or if something happened between DWayne and Robby Albarado.... Robby was riding him fantastic..then all of a sudden 3 jock switches in the last 5 races....i freaking hate jon court w/a passion in a big spot...but like i said, this isn't for a win this is for exotic tickets...i kinda like as an early pick Union Rags..unfortunately, i believe he will be the favorite...we'll see

Thanks, will keep him in mind for the exotics........

 

[elevenblack301]

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/.../pdfs/20120417 PPs Top Derby Contenders_0.pdf

TomTom,

Thanks for the heads up on the link............. much appreciated...

 

[elevenblack301]

:howdy: OK, now to take a look at the records of the possible contenders......

I like to look at the Lifetime, the current Year 2012, and the record at Churchill....


.................................Life........................2012.....................Churchill

Alpha........................6..3-2-0...................3..2-1-0..................1..0-0-0
Bodemesiter..............4..2-2-0...................4..2-2-0...................0..0-0-0
Creative Cause...........8..4-2-2...................3..1-1-1..................1..0-0-1
Daddy Long Legs........5..3-0-0...................1..1-0-0..................1..0-0-0
Daddy Nose Best.......10..4-2-1..................2..2-0-0..................2..0-1-0
Done Talking..............7..3-0-2..................2..1-0-0..................0..0-0-0
Dullahan....................8..2-2-2..................2..1-1-0..................3..0-0-1
El Padrino..................6..3-1-1..................3..2-0-0..................0..0-0-0
Gemoligist.................5..5-0-0..................2..2-0-0..................2..2-0-0
Hansen.....................6..4-2-0...................3..1-2-0..................1..1-0-0
I’ll Have Another........5..3-1-0...................2..2-0-0..................0..0-0-0
Isn’t He Clever..........8..4-2-0...................4..1-1-0...................0..0-0-0
Liaison.....................7..3-0-1...................3..0-0-0...................0..0-0-0
Mark Valeski.............5..2-2-0...................3..1-2-0...................0..0-0-0
Optimizer.................9..1-2-1...................4..0-1-0...................2..0-0-0
Prospective...............8..4-2-0..................4..2-1-0...................1..0-0-0
Reveron...................7..3-2-2...................3..1-1-1...................0..0-0-0
Rousing Sermon.......9..2-2-4...................3..0-0-2....................0..0-0-0
Sabrecat..................8..3-0-2..................2..0-0-1....................2..0-0-1
Secret Circle............7..5-2-0...................4..2-2-0....................1..1-0-0
Take Charge Indy.....6..2-2-0...................2..1-1-0...................1..0-0-0
Trinniberg................7..3-2-0..................2..2-0-0....................1..0-0-0
Union Rags..............6..4-1-1..................2..1-0-1....................1..0-1-0
Went The day Well....5..2-2-0..................3..2-0-0.....................0..0-0-0

Hansen and Gemologist are 'perfect' at Churchill....... but then again Gemologist is a perfect 5-5 anywhere..... Not much to go on here, but again a number that I crunch later on , on the lower end of my priority scale....

 

[HermosaEv]

exciting times

eleven black -

thanks for sharing your thoughts and thread. i am sure there will be plenty of haters this year as there were last year, but i hope those that read the thread simply remember this is YOUR strategy and YOUR suggestions. I dont ever sense any authoritative/egotistical tone to your posts, so I welcome your input and research. we should all be pretty open minded to such data when trying to 'cap' this tough event.

i feel this year is pretty wide open...always hard to predict three year olds as they can make giant strides at any time...but your data seems to suggest a top tier that is pretty clear. that said, i'd be curious to know how closely these horses rank from top to bottom versus years' past? to clarify, these most recent class ratings you posted, etc range from 116-123 or so. with those figures, that is a total variation of roughly 7 (123-116)....how does that variation relate to years' past? was last years favorite only 6 or 7 better than the longest shot? I ask because if last year the variation was (just for example) 1 or 20, it may suggest this year is more of a wide open race or favorite favoring race. make sense? Maybe we would all benefit by playing longshots if the favorites are only marginally better than the favorites...following...!?!?

thanks for the good work and data. i dont know how much i'll use - but your excitement is contagious! i'll be the guy in section 325 at derby screaming his head off!

 

[elevenblack301]

eleven black -

thanks for sharing your thoughts and thread. i am sure there will be plenty of haters this year as there were last year, but i hope those that read the thread simply remember this is YOUR strategy and YOUR suggestions. I dont ever sense any authoritative/egotistical tone to your posts, so I welcome your input and research. we should all be pretty open minded to such data when trying to 'cap' this tough event.

i feel this year is pretty wide open...always hard to predict three year olds as they can make giant strides at any time...but your data seems to suggest a top tier that is pretty clear. that said, i'd be curious to know how closely these horses rank from top to bottom versus years' past? to clarify, these most recent class ratings you posted, etc range from 116-123 or so. with those figures, that is a total variation of roughly 7 (123-116)....how does that variation relate to years' past? was last years favorite only 6 or 7 better than the longest shot? I ask because if last year the variation was (just for example) 1 or 20, it may suggest this year is more of a wide open race or favorite favoring race. make sense? Maybe we would all benefit by playing longshots if the favorites are only marginally better than the favorites...following...!?!?

thanks for the good work and data. i dont know how much i'll use - but your excitement is contagious! i'll be the guy in section 325 at derby screaming his head off!

Hermosa Ev,

Many thanks for the kind words..... I am glad that I am able to be of some help to you and most of the others on this site. Yes, you are right, I remember some of those "negative" posts last year. Never could understand "WHY" though. I, along with you and the most of others are only here to help. But I guess no matter what, there is always going to be a...... you know what....

You raise a good point about the differences with this years' crop compared to the past few years. I will try to look into it. Might make for some interesting conversation and chatter....

Spread the word, the derby is contagious in itself........... I have always loved this time of year........ ever since I was a weeeeeee little one, many, many moons ago....

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Here are some numbers from the Brisnet Past performances......... they are the Run Styles of the horses and the Early Speed Points.......... I normally do not like the early pace setters for this kind of race, bit I think that is obvious. So here we go with another of the criteria that I consider when I am capping this type of race.


.......................Brisnet Run Styles ... .Early Speed Points

Alpha...............................P..............................5
Bodemeister.....................E..............................8
Creative Cause.................P...............................4
Daddy Long Legs.............NA..............................1
Daddy Nose Best..............S...............................2
Done Talking...................S................................0
Dullahan.........................S................................0
El Padrino.......................P................................5
Gemologist.....................E/P.............................7
Hansen...........................E...............................8
I’ll Have Another.............E/P.............................7
Isn’t He Clever................E/P.............................4
Liaison............................P...............................2
Mark Valeski...................E/P.............................5
Optimizer........................S...............................0
Prospective......................P...............................1
Reveron.........................E/P.............................7
Rousing Sermon...............S...............................0
Sabrecat..........................P..............................0
Secret Circle...................E/P.............................6
Take Charge Iny..............E/P............................5
Trinniberg........................E..............................8
Union Rags.......................P.............................2
Went The Da.y Well...........P.............................5

E - early run style

E/P - lay behind the pacesetter

P - middle of the pack

S - back of the pack closer

Early Speed Points range from a low of 0 to a high of 8, the higher the number the more early speed the horse shows at the first call.....

 

[kbrod66]

11 black, cant wait till the pps come out w/ post positions,then ill do the handicapping of the kentucky derby (better than sex) well sometimes,but i will be looking at drf,and bris...but alot of what i look for u put up already,awsome..i will post here with the pics.

 

[kbrod66]

i see with the 3 - e8s..we will get some hot pace up front,i know bode is going to get hit at the windows,but i think hes a throw out for me because of no race as a 2 yo

 

[elevenblack301]

11 black, cant wait till the pps come out w/ post positions,then ill do the handicapping of the kentucky derby (better than sex) well sometimes,but i will be looking at drf,and bris...but alot of what i look for u put up already,awsome..i will post here with the pics.

kbrod66,

you gave me a good laugh with the better than sex comment......... but I feel the same way when it comes to the derby.......... when the Sunday after the derby comes, I already start thinking of next year, but I am glad there is the Preakness and Belmont not far away ( and Breeder's Cup etc...) ..... but the derby is the CASH COW......

I also look at the drf pp's but love the brisnet's ultimate pp's ... and looking forward to next Wednesday ( the draw )..... yea, post your picks here , and we can put our heads together and bring this monster home...

Thanks to all of you with your comments, also, and please post all of your picks here and let's see what we can do...... will list some more of my criteria 'stats' tomorrow.... BE WELL EVERYONE !

 

[TomTom]

TomTom,

Thanks for the heads up on the link............. much appreciated...

Your welcomed and here's more info that was sitting in my inbox while I was out and about earlier.

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505u.pdf

 

[elevenblack301]

Your welcomed and here's more info that was sitting in my inbox while I was out and about earlier.

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505u.pdf

TomTom,

Again, much THANKS........ I have been looking at this Brisnet PP's for the past week or so........ OK, boys and girls.... go to this link, print it out and start your 'capping'...... I absolutely love these Ultimate PP's , I probably get most of my criteria ( well around 60 % or so ) from these pages.

Keep checking that inbox.....maybe it will spit out some selections soon................ thanks again..........be well.......

 

[elevenblack301]

By the way, here is a link that will help you to understand some of these numbers on the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances...... if you need that help....


http://www.brisnet.com/library/ppexplan.pdf


Happy Capping.................

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Ok, here is another " capping citeria " to consider.............. the Pedigree Ratings........


..........................Fst.................Off..............Dis................# Difference

Alpha..................115...............116.................119.....................+ 4
Bodemeister.........114...............112................115.................... + 1
Creative Cause.....109...............109.................117.................... + 8
Daddy Long Legs...111..............111.................110..................... - 1
Daddy Nose Best...110..............111.................111.................... + 1
Done Talking.........108.............107.................113..................... + 5
Dullahan...............105.............103..................107.................... + 2
El Padrino.............112..............113..................115................... + 3
Gemologist............112.............112...................118................... + 6
Hansen.................110.............109...................113................... + 3
I’ll Have Another....106..............105..................108................... + 2
Isn’t He Clever.......112..............109..................107................... - 5
Liaison..................111..............111..................108................... - 3
Mark Valeski..........105..............104...................105.................. + 0
Optimizer..............108..............110...................110.................. + 2
Prospective............109..............107...................107.................. - 2
Reveron................107..............106....................103.................. - 4
Rousing Sermon.....110..............112...................108................... - 2
Sabrecat...............109...............106...................107.................. - 2
Secret Circle..........107...............105....................104................. - 3
Take Charge Indy...117...............116....................122................. + 5
Trinniberg..............99.................97......................98.................. - 1
Union Rags............111................111....................114................ + 3
Went The Day Well..108................109...................109................ + 1


FST - on a fast track
OFF - on an off track
DIS - distance
# Diff - the difference for a fast track and the distance,..... higher positive better

 

[kbrod66]

sorry 11 b. never thought to put out my pic today at keenland..i post on view from vegas.com under the horse racing threads..nice one today at keenland race 8........winner ....ex....tri.

thursday keenland race 1. #3 joha (w) $$$........hopefully with ward having 2 in the race we might keep our ml. at 3/1

 

[kbrod66]

11 black,curious,do u pay for your bris net.

 

[thekeyman]

TomTom,

Again, much THANKS........ I have been looking at this Brisnet PP's for the past week or so........ OK, boys and girls.... go to this link, print it out and start your 'capping'...... I absolutely love these Ultimate PP's , I probably get most of my criteria ( well around 60 % or so ) from these pages.

Keep checking that inbox.....maybe it will spit out some selections soon................ thanks again..........be well.......

i can't get it to print,it keeps saying there are no pages selected to be printed,now ive printed a lot of stuff and this has happened once before.i have where it say pages,ALL selected and it is not showing 1-10 in the pages box so whaat can i do to fix this

 

[FastEd]

I'll be going to the derby (infield action with all the misfits) for a bachelor party. This year seems a little tough for me to figure out so I hope to get some advice from the better handicappers on here (who are the cappers....I don't know).

All this info is great. Thanks again!

 

[elevenblack301]

i can't get it to print,it keeps saying there are no pages selected to be printed,now ive printed a lot of stuff and this has happened once before.i have where it say pages,ALL selected and it is not showing 1-10 in the pages box so whaat can i do to fix this

Have you got it to work yet....................... it prints fine on my end..........try and print the separate pages 1-10 , instead of the 'all' tab.......... it should work, hope it does.....