think american lion gonna end up being my horse
from haskin over at bloodhorse
Several horses caught the eye this morning, especially American Lion, a big long-striding colt, whose coat was dappled out with a healthy shine to it. This is a free-running horse, and although you don’t want to grab him and take a strong hold of him, he still should be laying several lengths off the pace because of the amount of speed in the race. The key is to get him in a good position going into the first turn. The Tiznows have a tendency to get good later on and this colt could be coming into own at the right time. With Eskendereya out of the race, he is now the only horse in the field to have run a negative Thoro-Graph number this year; that coming in the Illinois Derby (gr. II).
think awesome act gonna be too short of a price to take
and people will dismiss american lion due to all the speed in here but think he'll be fine sitting behind the pace going at the pace he wants to run at...just looks like that type of horse that can run 24s around the track all day long and that's all it really takes to win the derby...just like his dad.....might be a bit too soon we'll see...but think this guy has the most upside potential of anybody in here....loved the look of his stride and such in the illinois derby....
we'll have to see how they bet it come derby day
american lion, awesome act, stately victor and super saver the 4 i got at the top of my list...as far as who i think could be value derby day....
don't see how anybody can back looking and lucky and sidney's candy in here based on their projected 1st and 2nd choice....no reason to take anything under 10-1 in this race....
from haskin over at bloodhorse
Several horses caught the eye this morning, especially American Lion, a big long-striding colt, whose coat was dappled out with a healthy shine to it. This is a free-running horse, and although you don’t want to grab him and take a strong hold of him, he still should be laying several lengths off the pace because of the amount of speed in the race. The key is to get him in a good position going into the first turn. The Tiznows have a tendency to get good later on and this colt could be coming into own at the right time. With Eskendereya out of the race, he is now the only horse in the field to have run a negative Thoro-Graph number this year; that coming in the Illinois Derby (gr. II).
think awesome act gonna be too short of a price to take
and people will dismiss american lion due to all the speed in here but think he'll be fine sitting behind the pace going at the pace he wants to run at...just looks like that type of horse that can run 24s around the track all day long and that's all it really takes to win the derby...just like his dad.....might be a bit too soon we'll see...but think this guy has the most upside potential of anybody in here....loved the look of his stride and such in the illinois derby....
we'll have to see how they bet it come derby day
american lion, awesome act, stately victor and super saver the 4 i got at the top of my list...as far as who i think could be value derby day....
don't see how anybody can back looking and lucky and sidney's candy in here based on their projected 1st and 2nd choice....no reason to take anything under 10-1 in this race....
I should have clarified more....
1) Lookin' at Lucky - I think he will improve on dirt as so many SoCal horses have...note his career best beyer came on dirt...he has been looking awesome and I think if he gets a clean trip he'll be tough to deny..his 98 beyer with trouble in Ark. Derby appears a notch above the others...
2) Dublin - think Lukas has been building him up to a peak performance and hopefully this is it.. he'll get a solid pace to run at and should get the jump on the deep closers... he's the only horse I have a future on from a few weeks ago and even though his work today was suspect..it came on a wet track and under lights...which he probably didn't like..
3) Stately Victor - don't think his last was a fluke..question about the dirt form? but I think he'll be flying late... his pedigree screams more distance... even if you don't like..you gotta think about inclusion underneath in the exotics because he should be coming late...
4) Sidney's Candy - just think he is the best of the speed horses... but distance/race shape are major concerns...
I don't like Awesome Act after hearing trainer quote say he might "just be a one-turn dirt miler, but we'll see" I give +'s to the closers though...which is why I am all over Dublin, Stately Victor, and even Dean's Kitten...Those 3 will be in almost all of my exotics...
I really just don't know about American Lion...he's been very under the radar and I don't know what to make of him.. main concern is he won on the front end in his last...and his pedigree seems a bit on the short side.
As far as the Pletcher bridgade..Mission Impazzible and Super Saver are the 2 I like the most...I am just concerned with the fact that almost all of his horses have been on the lead or literally flanked right off it...and I don't think thats a position you want to be in with all the speed in this race..
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i don't like mission impazzible at all
got the most ridiculously garden trip in there...
breaking like a rocket....stalking the speed...and they came home pretty damn slow
plus i've noticed over the years FG tends to be kind of a quirky track...you see alot of horses not transfer their form to other dirt tracks
and it can swing both ways.....guessing rachael for instance just didn't like FG on top of other issues.....
speaking of that
here's a quiz question for you guys..i tried googling it but couldn't find it...
who's the last lousiana derby winner to win the kentucky derby? I can't think of it....
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i'm not knocking looking and lucky and sidney's candy....they look like pretty solid horses....but i'm a value player.....and they will be underlays come derby day regardless if they get it done or not.....i personally won't be taking any horse under 20-1 in here on the win end of things...
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yeah looks like american lion might be a bit short on bottom...that's where he gets his added speed....but tiznow himself could run all day long.....don't think a quarter will be a problem....especially the way he is built.....looks just like his dad.....just looks like a big striding grinder that can run all day long to me....
got the most ridiculously garden trip in there...
breaking like a rocket....stalking the speed...and they came home pretty damn slow
plus i've noticed over the years FG tends to be kind of a quirky track...you see alot of horses not transfer their form to other dirt tracks
and it can swing both ways.....guessing rachael for instance just didn't like FG on top of other issues.....
speaking of that
here's a quiz question for you guys..i tried googling it but couldn't find it...
who's the last lousiana derby winner to win the kentucky derby? I can't think of it....
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i'm not knocking looking and lucky and sidney's candy....they look like pretty solid horses....but i'm a value player.....and they will be underlays come derby day regardless if they get it done or not.....i personally won't be taking any horse under 20-1 in here on the win end of things...
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yeah looks like american lion might be a bit short on bottom...that's where he gets his added speed....but tiznow himself could run all day long.....don't think a quarter will be a problem....especially the way he is built.....looks just like his dad.....just looks like a big striding grinder that can run all day long to me....
Interesting point on the fairgrounds thing hadn't really thought of it like that before...
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I just got the lists of all the Louisiana Derby winners/Kentucky Derby winners since 1900 and I don't see a single match... So I will now be tossing Mission Impazzible lol...
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I would agree with what you said about American Lion...thats exactly the way I have been looking at Dublin...as a grinder that can just keep going...and thats what I am hoping for as I have him in a future at 25-1 and that will be my main derby win bet for me...
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I agree that I am also a value player...which is why I will have a couple of boxes leaving LAL and Candy out and using horses like Stately Victor and Dean's Kitten... I will just use them in my multirace wagers...
Best of luck
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I just got the lists of all the Louisiana Derby winners/Kentucky Derby winners since 1900 and I don't see a single match... So I will now be tossing Mission Impazzible lol...
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I would agree with what you said about American Lion...thats exactly the way I have been looking at Dublin...as a grinder that can just keep going...and thats what I am hoping for as I have him in a future at 25-1 and that will be my main derby win bet for me...
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I agree that I am also a value player...which is why I will have a couple of boxes leaving LAL and Candy out and using horses like Stately Victor and Dean's Kitten... I will just use them in my multirace wagers...
Best of luck
i don't like dublin really either
supposedly he's been veering out on the turns and such
churchill the turns are quite important....the race is usually won on the turn most of the time.....street sense for instance was a great turn horse
honestly i'll probably toss sidney in my exotics a bit....that horse is utterly insane on the turns...at least on the plastic....that's where he makes his winning move in his races...and like american lion i don't see him as a need the lead horse.....
here's the stuff on dublin
Dublin (five furlongs in 1:02.88): After creating a bit of a stir here Sunday morning, when he attempted to bolt on a couple of occasions on the far turn during a routine gallop, Dublin returned before dawn for his final Derby prep, which came in company with stablemate Luv Guv.
With jockey Terry Thompson aboard, Dublin broke off about three lengths behind his partner but quickly narrowed the gap while in hand through an opening eighth and quarter-mile of 12.42 and 24.50 seconds. But it became apparent that Thompson had his hands full with Dublin leaving the three-eighths pole as he attempted to bear out around the final bend. The little wrestling match slowed Dublin to a 37.56 three-eighths split, after which he leveled off a bit better once finally straightening away for the run down the stretch. With a little tap of encouragement, Dublin gradually began to pull clear of his mate and probably did his best running through the final sixteenth of a mile, although for the second time in less than a week, his gallop out was nonexistent(six furlongs in 1:18.22).
The sudden propensity to drift out around the turn and the failure to gallop out with any serious energy cannot be taken as positive signs less than one week out from the big event.
supposedly he's been veering out on the turns and such
churchill the turns are quite important....the race is usually won on the turn most of the time.....street sense for instance was a great turn horse
honestly i'll probably toss sidney in my exotics a bit....that horse is utterly insane on the turns...at least on the plastic....that's where he makes his winning move in his races...and like american lion i don't see him as a need the lead horse.....
here's the stuff on dublin
Dublin (five furlongs in 1:02.88): After creating a bit of a stir here Sunday morning, when he attempted to bolt on a couple of occasions on the far turn during a routine gallop, Dublin returned before dawn for his final Derby prep, which came in company with stablemate Luv Guv.
With jockey Terry Thompson aboard, Dublin broke off about three lengths behind his partner but quickly narrowed the gap while in hand through an opening eighth and quarter-mile of 12.42 and 24.50 seconds. But it became apparent that Thompson had his hands full with Dublin leaving the three-eighths pole as he attempted to bear out around the final bend. The little wrestling match slowed Dublin to a 37.56 three-eighths split, after which he leveled off a bit better once finally straightening away for the run down the stretch. With a little tap of encouragement, Dublin gradually began to pull clear of his mate and probably did his best running through the final sixteenth of a mile, although for the second time in less than a week, his gallop out was nonexistent(six furlongs in 1:18.22).
The sudden propensity to drift out around the turn and the failure to gallop out with any serious energy cannot be taken as positive signs less than one week out from the big event.
Yeah and I noticed that about Dublin.. I already have that future locked in so there isn't anything I can do but hope that was a fluke thing.. One thing to note is that he did this under the lights at churchill and in the slop.. his work last weekend was excellent... So maybe the darkness/lights/rain just spooked him a little.. At least thats what I'll be hoping for.
like here's american lions race as a 2yo
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he's just fine sitting off the pace....he's not rank and running within himself.....he was just faster than his competition in the illinois derby.....
like in the san felipe leparoux did the wrong thing in trying to slow this guy down he doesn't want to be restrained...
just let him do his thing and he ends up in whatever position he ends up based on how fast they going....and who knows maybe everybody will take back and let him pull the war emblem...LOL
plus its pretty logical a guy like him is going to prefer dirt over the plastic quite a bit....as plastic is good for the turn of foot horses...this guy a pure big striding grinder with speed not a turn of foot horse.....like say a curlin.....horses like that tend to hate the plastic stuff....like we saw with curlin in the BC classic on plastic
now i just gotta hope i get at least 20-1 on him come derby
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he's just fine sitting off the pace....he's not rank and running within himself.....he was just faster than his competition in the illinois derby.....
like in the san felipe leparoux did the wrong thing in trying to slow this guy down he doesn't want to be restrained...
just let him do his thing and he ends up in whatever position he ends up based on how fast they going....and who knows maybe everybody will take back and let him pull the war emblem...LOL
plus its pretty logical a guy like him is going to prefer dirt over the plastic quite a bit....as plastic is good for the turn of foot horses...this guy a pure big striding grinder with speed not a turn of foot horse.....like say a curlin.....horses like that tend to hate the plastic stuff....like we saw with curlin in the BC classic on plastic
now i just gotta hope i get at least 20-1 on him come derby
I agree with everything you said there...it just seems to me like it'll be tough to not have him on the lead because of the way he doesn't like to settle...I think it will be a very hard task to get him to sit behind a group of 6 or 7 horses and not pull his way to the front... I guess that's why he'll be value.. but I agree that if he could sit off the lead in that spot...he could be tough
he's not fast enough to do it even if he wanted to
he doesn't look like the type of horse that is gonna be pissed not to be on the lead....he's gonna be pissed if you don't let him run like he wants to run though
he doesn't have it in him to run that fast early
he wasn't rating persay....in his 7f races as a 2yo...he was just running along in his 24s ish pace like he likes and was fine sitting off horses
in the san felipe sidney went slow...and american lion was like fuck you leparoux let me do my thing i know what i'm doing....lol
and the horse was right there too...only hope was getting lead on sidney there....
man the more i look the more i like him
the 98 beyer they gave him gave backtalk who he totally crushed in the illinois derby a 75....backtalk hasn't run below a 79 in his career except on the plastic in the breeders cup futurity and ran an 87 for his 3yo debut....think that fig is low regardless of the time of that race track was just ridiculously slow that day.....and like haskin said he got some negative thourghgraph number which i have no clue how it is figured but is some sort of speed figure i believe....the horse that ran 2nd and cleared the rest of the field by 11.....ran 2nd to awesome act in the gotham gaining on him in the stretch run....
he doesn't look like the type of horse that is gonna be pissed not to be on the lead....he's gonna be pissed if you don't let him run like he wants to run though
he doesn't have it in him to run that fast early
he wasn't rating persay....in his 7f races as a 2yo...he was just running along in his 24s ish pace like he likes and was fine sitting off horses
in the san felipe sidney went slow...and american lion was like fuck you leparoux let me do my thing i know what i'm doing....lol
and the horse was right there too...only hope was getting lead on sidney there....
man the more i look the more i like him
the 98 beyer they gave him gave backtalk who he totally crushed in the illinois derby a 75....backtalk hasn't run below a 79 in his career except on the plastic in the breeders cup futurity and ran an 87 for his 3yo debut....think that fig is low regardless of the time of that race track was just ridiculously slow that day.....and like haskin said he got some negative thourghgraph number which i have no clue how it is figured but is some sort of speed figure i believe....the horse that ran 2nd and cleared the rest of the field by 11.....ran 2nd to awesome act in the gotham gaining on him in the stretch run....
Early< early< thts.........
hello derby $crew$ !!!!!! LOOKIN AT LUCKY .. (prob. Fav) hoss to beat!!!!
l .LIne of david.........Spot Ho$$, !! American Lion,.. TIZNOW COLT!!!! + !!!Jackson Bend ( nicky Z) ....WISE Guy Ho$$!!!
CONYVENACE.... THE LONGER PRICED BAFFERT entrant$$$$
,,,,,,,,,syndey's Candy. Endorsement...22.4,46.3.110.2..RABBITS!!!......
MISSION IMPAZIBLE.. Pletchers,,, Best > ???? .$- SETSUKO MANDELLAQ MAFIA COLT $$ -Might SNEAK $ IN $...... Dublin ..lukas sucker hoss!!!
HomeBoy Kris.. ( DUTROW / R. RODRIGUEZ) $$$ MAGIC $$$$PRADO ??
ICE BOX (nicky Z).... RULE...( PLETCHER)...NOBLE'S PROMISE (MCPEEK= ???????????? HOSSES!!!!!~~:<<:grandmais
$ GOOD RACING LUCK to ALL$
hello derby $crew$ !!!!!! LOOKIN AT LUCKY .. (prob. Fav) hoss to beat!!!!
l .LIne of david.........Spot Ho$$, !! American Lion,.. TIZNOW COLT!!!! + !!!Jackson Bend ( nicky Z) ....WISE Guy Ho$$!!!
CONYVENACE.... THE LONGER PRICED BAFFERT entrant$$$$
,,,,,,,,,syndey's Candy. Endorsement...22.4,46.3.110.2..RABBITS!!!......
MISSION IMPAZIBLE.. Pletchers,,, Best > ???? .$- SETSUKO MANDELLAQ MAFIA COLT $$ -Might SNEAK $ IN $...... Dublin ..lukas sucker hoss!!!
HomeBoy Kris.. ( DUTROW / R. RODRIGUEZ) $$$ MAGIC $$$$PRADO ??
ICE BOX (nicky Z).... RULE...( PLETCHER)...NOBLE'S PROMISE (MCPEEK= ???????????? HOSSES!!!!!~~:<<:grandmais
$ GOOD RACING LUCK to ALL$stately victor caught haskin's eye today too
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We went over to the Trackside training center Sunday afternoon, and looking at Stately Victor up close in his stall, if there is a better-looking horse in this year’s Derby we haven’t seen him. This colt is an eyeful, and we can’t get away from that nagging feeling that maybe his victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) was not a fluke, and that he’s just simply getting good, whether he runs on Polytrack or dirt. He’s still a guess and bettors will have to decide what to do with him.
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We went over to the Trackside training center Sunday afternoon, and looking at Stately Victor up close in his stall, if there is a better-looking horse in this year’s Derby we haven’t seen him. This colt is an eyeful, and we can’t get away from that nagging feeling that maybe his victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) was not a fluke, and that he’s just simply getting good, whether he runs on Polytrack or dirt. He’s still a guess and bettors will have to decide what to do with him.
also another reason i like stately is interacif was totally motoring home out in socal vs. sidney
while at keeneland that day he had nothing in the stretch....kinda surprised the owners are probably passing up on the derby with interatif after he worked well today....
maybe interatif bounced, didn't like that particular plastic that day, and stately just loved it...but stately was motoring home and galloped out like a monster
at this point likely betting stately and american lion to both win...assuming they both 20-1 or more....and will need one of um to run at least 2nd in the exotics....
plus ghostzappa although a young sire with limited data looks like a tiznow type sire where it takes his kids some time to get up to their potential.....
while at keeneland that day he had nothing in the stretch....kinda surprised the owners are probably passing up on the derby with interatif after he worked well today....
maybe interatif bounced, didn't like that particular plastic that day, and stately just loved it...but stately was motoring home and galloped out like a monster
at this point likely betting stately and american lion to both win...assuming they both 20-1 or more....and will need one of um to run at least 2nd in the exotics....
plus ghostzappa although a young sire with limited data looks like a tiznow type sire where it takes his kids some time to get up to their potential.....
I saw that tiznow...
I am really starting to like Stately Victor more and more the closer it gets...I think he is the best closer in the field right now...and his pedigree screams distance...
I am beginning to have a tough time separating Lucky, Stately Victor, Noble's Promise... I still like Dublin as well but gotta be worried about him.. and your American Lion makes sense for me as well... but its starting to get narrowed down...
I am really starting to like Stately Victor more and more the closer it gets...I think he is the best closer in the field right now...and his pedigree screams distance...
I am beginning to have a tough time separating Lucky, Stately Victor, Noble's Promise... I still like Dublin as well but gotta be worried about him.. and your American Lion makes sense for me as well... but its starting to get narrowed down...
he's not really a closer either....i mean he'll be midpack or further back in this race but....
when he's on his game (his two victories) he's a midpacker with some speed....if he's on his game he's basically kinda along the lines of an awesome act.....
and yeah he should run all day 1/4 should be no problem for sure....
still can't get over his gallop out after the bluegrass.....just monsterous....and rest of the field just seemed to be totally spent and toiling behind him down the stretch for most part
when he's on his game (his two victories) he's a midpacker with some speed....if he's on his game he's basically kinda along the lines of an awesome act.....
and yeah he should run all day 1/4 should be no problem for sure....
still can't get over his gallop out after the bluegrass.....just monsterous....and rest of the field just seemed to be totally spent and toiling behind him down the stretch for most part
just gonna let lucky beat me at this point....
swinging for the homerun here...
might be best horse...worked well today (granted track likely will be completely different come derby day)....but just no reason to use him at his short price in the 20 horse chaos of the derby.....maybe throw him in as a mini saver in the 3rd slot of tri or something but other than that i'll let him beat me
swinging for the homerun here...
might be best horse...worked well today (granted track likely will be completely different come derby day)....but just no reason to use him at his short price in the 20 horse chaos of the derby.....maybe throw him in as a mini saver in the 3rd slot of tri or something but other than that i'll let him beat me
good to hear american lion's work was just a maintence work as i suspected...if he was having to be pushed to come home in 25 i'd be a bit worried he was just out there clipping off a couple of 25s....plus i didn't want this horse to blow a big one anyway to kill his price or anything
his gallop out good
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With jockey David Flores in from California, WinStar Farm’s American Lion worked five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 over a muddy track at Churchill Downs April 26 in preparation for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).
The Tiznow colt was timed in fractional splits of :12 3/5, :25 2/5, and :37 3/5 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16 2/5.
"It was just a maintenance work," said trainer Eoin Harty. "With the track like it was, I didn’t want to take any risks. The horse is very fit, he’s training very well over the track so I really just wanted him to stretch his legs, which is basically what he did."
Flores said he did not want the colt to work fast, considering the track conditions that have been muddy or sloppy for the past several mornings. "He just cruised out there," said Flores, who rode American Lion for the first time when they paired to win the Illionis Derby (gr. III).
his gallop out good
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With jockey David Flores in from California, WinStar Farm’s American Lion worked five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 over a muddy track at Churchill Downs April 26 in preparation for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).
The Tiznow colt was timed in fractional splits of :12 3/5, :25 2/5, and :37 3/5 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16 2/5.
"It was just a maintenance work," said trainer Eoin Harty. "With the track like it was, I didn’t want to take any risks. The horse is very fit, he’s training very well over the track so I really just wanted him to stretch his legs, which is basically what he did."
Flores said he did not want the colt to work fast, considering the track conditions that have been muddy or sloppy for the past several mornings. "He just cruised out there," said Flores, who rode American Lion for the first time when they paired to win the Illionis Derby (gr. III).
