Kentucky derby picks

[tiznow]

yeah dean's kitten i have in my lower rung as a possibility

I just can't get over that one run on dirt at belmont though running a 28.....guess his bottom says dirt will be okay....but on top kitten's joy pure turfer....

read that stately victor came down with a sickness or something soon after that CD run to add the excuses as far as his dirt runs go on top of the ridiculous 1:15 and 4 pace.....

 

[zou1222]

Yeah Dean's Kitten is a reach but I think his style fits if he shows up on the dirt...

As far as Stately I am on the same page.. I just rewatched the Blue Grass and it is so impressive.. He was motoring through the stretch and the gallop out was awesome I almost think he will like this distance more than 1/8th...his dosage index is 3 2 11 0 0 for a 1.91 (only two lower in the field are Dean's Kitten at 1.15 and Sidney's Candy at 1.86)... between that and his gallop out you can tell this guy is a long distance runner... I also like the fact that he seems to be peaking at the right time which is a huge factor in the derby.. He appears set for a huge run if he handles the dirt... his dad did just fine on it.

Lets just hope we get the price on him which I think we will because he only had a 94 beyer in the bluegrass and appears a notch below the others to the general public's eye.

 

[Michelangelo]

I knew my Derby horse when I watched the Bluegrass. I don't believe in "freak" performances. Stately Victor destroyed what I thought was a very strong field of competitors in that Bluegrass, and he did it with solid times too. Some horses just take a bit longer to mature. There was nothing in his previous form that indicated that race but I saw it. And he ran it. That lousy previous form will just help his value.

The only concern I have is that the Bluegrass was on synthetic. But it's not enough of a concern to give me pause.

Anything 10-1 or up and I'll be ecstatic.

 

[tiznow]

yeah i just think there was something going on with him near the end of his 2yo campaign....like the sickness thing

dont' think dirt should be any problem at all

he ran well first out on dirt as a 2yo at toga....and 7f is a tough distance to ask a horse first out and the horse that beat him there came back to beat winners his next race...

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[tiznow]

his action looks like an all surface type action to me

like say a giant's causeway, zanyetta, etc...

that mix of dirt and turf influences worked out well in him

main question is he good enough and of course can get a decent trip in the 20 horse chaos...lol

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks for that video Tiz. He looked a bit green down the stretch there to me. But in the next video when he broke his maiden he looked like he knew what he was supposed to do although he got a benefiting rail trip in that one (by the way I just realized that I was at The Spa when he broke that maiden). Maybe thats why I like him!

 

[tiznow]

HA

i honestly think he might be better on dirt lets hope so

he's not really a turn of foot horse...his stride isn't extremely quick and zippy like say a sidney's candy...he's a fairly decent sized horse that hits the ground pretty powerfully....

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Anyone's take on Devil May Care and Endorsement?

 

[tiznow]

haven't seen the past performances on devil may care yet

endorsement just doesn't look like much to me

i mean he has a shot nobody is ever "hopeless" persay shit happens like MTB but he's a 60-1+ longshot in here in my book

the horse completely shut down after the sunland derby looked like he gave it everything he had and quarter probably will be too much for him

he has no foundation as a 2yo other than 1 maiden race in november and he just doesn't look like a special horse to me....to win the derby off as little experience as he has he has to be something really really special and he doesn't look like a special horse to me...

and the trainer has been fiddling around with his training regiment all week changing plans so i think something may be slightly amiss with him

 

[zou1222]

I agree 100% with tiz on Endorsement...

I don't like him in here... I know a lot of guys are throwing him around..but something doesn't seem right about the workout regime and I just was not ever impressed with him...

As far as Devil May Care...You'll find her PP's in there for anyone who cares..

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/... Kentucky Oaks 136 Graded Stakes Earnings.pdf

Here is her last race... Notice her swerving in the lane.. She got a perfect trip that race and that favorites did not.. She appears to still have some greenness in her... On top of all this a Malibu Moon going 1 1/4th? and facing boys for the first time? Not for me... and I bet she gets overbet.

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[JakeT.]

I've been backing American Lion for a while and think that Dublin is in a similar spot. Hoping for around 10/1 on both of them. I think one will win.

 

[zou1222]

I've been backing American Lion for a while and think that Dublin is in a similar spot. Hoping for around 10/1 on both of them. I think one will win.

Think me and tiznow are right there with you Jake T... he loves American Lion and I love Dublin though his weekend work when lugging out scares me a bit..but could have just been combo of rain/slop/working under lights

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Also heard Zito's Icebox may fair well.

Top "raw" horses I'm looking at right now (in no particular order) would be as follows:
1. Looking at Lucky
2. Awesome Act
3. American Lion
4. Sidney's Candy
5. Stately Victor
6. Devil May Care
7. SuperSaver
8. Icebox

Which horses would you completely scratch from the entire derby field if you had to do it today?

 

[tiznow]

i don't like american lion at 10-1...LOL

fair value 13 to 15 to 1 or somewhere around there....

i'll come up with my no take line once the posts are drawn

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

My disclaimer: I am strictly an amateur at this, but love the conversation and appreciate the knowledge. Much like the Super Bowl, I am coming out of the woodwork like other individuals do.

 

[tiznow]

1/4 shouldn't be a problem for devil may care i don't think....has plenty of stamina on the mom side....

she does look green as hell but she does have the look of being a good horse to me...

hey zou take a look at her FG run just to show another example of the quirkness of FG...some horses love it some just hate it....

that said its gonna be asking alot of her and she still looks green as hell

she's probably a 30 to 40-1 shot in here i'm giving her the benefit of the doubt probably....and more times than not the fillies in derby's are usually overbet....pretty likely she goes off sub 30-1 being a filly and having a 100 beyer last out which very few in here do

 

[tiznow]

man look at the comment lines on her

LOL

broke slow rushed up, stumbled break, fractious gate, and then she had that thing there in her last....

if she ever figures it out she's probably gonna be a really good one....but can't be messing around like that in a 20 horse field or you pretty much hopeless

 

[zou1222]

First of all in repsonse to tiznow:

I just watched her last at FG... I do get what your saying... I know that they are known for their lengthy stretch and weird turns... Devil May Care is actually sitting at 6-1 last time I looked at Vegas odds... I won't give her the time of day at that price...But being pletcher/johnny v and that big beyer she very well could get bet down to that but I don't think quite that low...

Also though those odds are kind of low.. endorsement at 8-1? No way there either too many question marks surround that one as well...

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In response to squeezethejuice:

I would completely toss out:

Awesome Act
Discreetly Mine
Rule
Line of David
Conveyance
Endorsement - reluctantly but I just have a bad feeling about this one...wiseguy horse
Paddy O' Prado
Homeboykris
and probably any of the next in lines to get in except Zito's horse..

 

[tiznow]

Yeah she could end up being 3rd choice in here she,s definetely not value at under 20 to 1 glad shes in here so i can toss her if she takes as much money as we think she could

the take on vegas lines are absolutely ridiculous they have next to zero value at this stage of the game

 

[zou1222]

Yeah agreed... here they are if anybody cares...


American Lion
+1200

Awesome Act
+1000

Backtalk
+2000

Conveyance
+1800

Deans Kitten
+2000

Devil May Care
+600

Discreetly Mine
+2500

Dublin
+1200

Endorsement
+800

Homeboykris
+2500

Ice Box
+1000

Interactif
+2000

Jackson Bend
+1500

Line of David
+1800

Lookin at Lucky
+200

Make Music for Me
+3000

Mission Impazible
+1200

Nobles Promise
+1200

Paddy OPrado
+2500

Rule
+2000

Sidneys Candy
+300

Stately Victor
+1800

Super Saver
+1200