Kaboom's Derby Notes/Trends

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Didn't realize so many cappers knew about this angle ...feel foolish posting it now ...but ...why not ?

Last 14 Years ..Any horse that Finished In The Money in the Wood Memorial.....DID NOT Finish In The Money in the Kentucky Derby

0-25 Trend

These trend all come to an end ....you are warned ....

2018 Wood Memorial Horse 's that finished ITM this year

1st ) Vino Rossi .... who I like a bunch
2nd) Enticed ....many wise guys like this pony

Your call ....GL !!!
 

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[FONT=&quot]So I have been working with the 9th Generation in a horse's pedigree ... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I use specific horse's in the 9th Generation for my maybe worthless angle but interesting nonetheless .... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Horses I look for inside the 9th Generation are Bona Vista , Bown Bud , Cyllene , Cleopatra , Display , Discovery ,Domino , Pharos , Phalaris , Polymelus , St Simon , St Frusquin, St German , Stephan the Great ,Ksar , Whisk Broom , ...there is a few more ... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]So I look for these horse from top to bottom in an order to where they are listed in the 9 Generation ... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Noticed that Bolt d' Oro ...in the 9th Generation does not match any other horse from 1985 to 2017 that finished in the Top 4 Spots ... 1st / 2nd / 3rd or 4th .... using my horses that I mentioned above ... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Bolt d' Oro first horse mentioned is Polymelus ( which is a very popular horse that is found in many winners and ITM horses in the Derby ) ....but the second horse listed .... out my horses I use is Brown Bud .... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]No horse that finished ITM or 4th place has ever started the 9th Generation with those 2 horses in order .... of course ...just following my list of horses I use ... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I really liked Bolt d' Oro and he may win ....but if following this small angle I use ...I will be playing in the 5th spot of my High 5 only .... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Please no bashing ....if u disagree with the angle , that's cool .... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I've made money in the past with some of these same type angles .... serious [/FONT]
 

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[FONT=&quot]Adding [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Vino Rossi ... Since 1985 / 5 Times in the Wood Memorial a horse has finished ITM with the same exact order of horses I use in the 9th Generation ... Cyllene/St Simon/ St Frusquin ...in all 5 times the horse finished 4th or worse in the Derby ....but 2 times the horse finished in 4th place ... each time they had Nerarco in top line in 5th Generation and Northern Dancer in 3rd Generation Top Line .... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Vino Rossi ....has the 5th Gen Nearco First Line and Northern Dancer 3rd Gen Top Line ...[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]So If playing Vino Rossi using the above info ... play 4th or 5th positions only ... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Just something I noticed ...unsure how I'm playing the horse , myself ...


Remember 0-25 last 25 horses who finished ITM in Wood Memorial , did not finish ITM in the Derby if entered ...[/FONT]
 

Make Me some $
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Kaboom really good stuff here. I will be using some of these angles esp the Conduit Mare Profile to strike out some horses. Keep up the good work and let's sign some paperwork!!
 

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Kentucky Derby post draw, updated odds

PostHorseOdds
1Firenze Fire50-1
2Free Drop Billy30-1
3Promises Fulfilled30-1
4Flameaway30-1
5Audible8-1
6Good Magic12-1
7Justify 3-1
8Lone Sailor50-1
9Hofburg20-1
10My Boy Jack30-1
11Bolt d'Oro8-1
12Enticed30-1
13Bravazo50-1
14Mendelssohn5-1
15Instilled Regard50-1
16Magnum Moon6-1
17Solomini30-1
18Vino Rosso12-1
19Noble Indy30-1
20Combatant50-1

[h=3]Best and worst post positions[/h]Post positions may not matter for the long haul, but they can make all the difference in the scrum at the beginning of the race. According to America's Best Racing's Christina Moore, No. 17 is the dreaded post position. No horse has ever won the Derby out of that gate, and only three have finished in the money. Solomini is a longshot at 30-1 to do so. Beyond that, Posts 18-20 have yielded just one winner, and nine in the money finishes between them. Vino Rosso out of No. 19 is the one most likely to buck that trend at 12-1 odds.
Post No. 5 is the magic number, with 10 champions starting out of that gate. At 8-1 odds, Audible has decent potential to build on that legacy. 21 horses have finished in the money from No. 5, surpassed only by Posts 2 (seven winners, 25 ITM finishes), run by Free Drop Billy at 30-1 odds; and 10 (nine winners, 24 ITM), owned by My Boy Jack -- also at 30-1 odds.
Which post is the best depends on which jockey it is, with some preferring to stay outside due to less bustle and others preferring the middle. Ultimately, however, no amount of luck in the draw will top the horses with more stamina. Justify running out of Post 7 is a good draw for the favorite, and certainly wouldn't do anything to hurt his odds moving forward.
 

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Vino Rossi ... Since 1985 / 5 Times in the Wood Memorial a horse has finished ITM with the same exact order of horses I use in the 9th Generation ... Cyllene/St Simon/ St Frusquin ...in all 5 times the horse finished 4th or worse in the Derby ....but 2 times the horse finished in 4th place ... each time they had Nerarco in top line in 5th Generation and Northern Dancer in 3rd Generation Top Line ....
Vino Rossi ....has the 5th Gen Nearco First Line and Northern Dancer 3rd Gen Top Line ...
So If playing Vino Rossi using the above info ... play 4th or 5th positions only ...
Just something I noticed ...unsure how I'm playing the horse , myself ...


Remember 0-25 last 25 horses who finished ITM in Wood Memorial , did not finish ITM in the Derby if entered ...


Please disregard this info on Vino ...I was wrong
 

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I’m curious as to what is it you see to say “by 5 lengths or more” at this point? I mean saying Justify to win is one thing but you really think at this stage he is that much better than every other horse? Would his post matter? This looks like a pretty good field to me so if you see something specific I’m just curious what it is. Thanks for all the info.

Changed my mind bro .....

Unsure who I'm picking right now
 

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Predicted finish on a few ...I have my reasons ....

My Boy Jack...5th or worse

Noble Indy....5th or worse


3rd place or Worse

Audible

Combatant

Enticed

Bravazo

Free Drop Billy
 

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Predicted finish on a few ...I have my reasons ....

My Boy Jack...5th or worse,,,since 1985 ...0 - 128 finished in top 4 trend in Derby

Noble Indy....5th or worse,,,,since 1985 ...0 - 128 finished in top 4 trend in Derby


3rd place or Worse

Audible ...since 1985 falls into a category 2/64 finished at best 3rd or 4th place

Combatant ....since 1985 falls into a category 2/64 finished at best 3rd or 4th place

Enticed ...since 1985 falls into a category 1/32 placed ...1/32 Showed ... 1/32 ...finished in 4th place

Bravazo......since 1985 falls into a category 1/32 placed ...1/32 Showed ... 2/32 finished in 4th place

Free Drop Billy....since 1985 falls into a category 1/32 placed ...1/32 Showed ... 2/32 finished in 4th place


Just a little something I broke down .... your call ...
 

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Yea that was such a rough trip for Mendelssohn ..... NOT !!!!!

Today at CD

Pull him on Facebook ... Thoroughbred Today ....
 

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Good stuff, Kaboom, thanks!!!


Thx bro ...just trying to help us out ....by far ...no expert but I'm a number cruncher , so the stuff I use , does pay off and at times it don't ? LOL !!

GL !!!
 

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Kaboom

I just wanted to thank you for this thread great insight from you & others. Good luck with your picks.
I will be all over Mendelssohn & won’t have Justify on any of my tickets
 

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Kaboom

I just wanted to thank you for this thread great insight from you & others. Good luck with your picks.
I will be all over Mendelssohn & won’t have Justify on any of my tickets

You are welcome bro ....appreciate the stop in ... GL on the races !!!
 

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When will you make your final final final selection?
And don’t get me wrong I usually wait till at least and hour before post time. Or less.
GL!
 

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Surpassed only by Posts 2 (seven winners, 25 ITM finishes), run by Free Drop Billy at 30-1 odds. This must be a mistake, Post 2 is one of the worst, right?
 

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When will you make your final final final selection?
And don’t get me wrong I usually wait till at least and hour before post time. Or less.
GL!


Hosted a huge Derby Party , I couldn't get to the forum ....sorry ...

Had a real nice day ... Picked up around $3000 .... Hit a few Super's ...Tri's ...Pic 3 's and Pic 4's ...and had a stretch of 8 race wins in a row ...Had Justify in a futures bet ....


Unusual for me .... trust me ....

496915634-15/4/18 12:14pm$27.00$0.00$1,067.08WinChurchill Downs [ 5/5/2018 ] Race #4 $ 0.25 Superfecta (2, 3, 9 / 2, 3, 4, 9 / 2, 3, 4, 9, 10 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10)

4972115965/5/18 9:38pm$160.00$2,514.30Wager Won490632647-1$20.00$140.00Win3/30/18 12:00pm Other Sports Horses Kentucky Derby - Justify +700
4972043785/5/18 8:44pm$70.50$2,354.30Wager Won494501896-1$15.00$55.50Win5/5/18 5:30pm Horses Other Sports 8001 Justify wins Kentucky Derby +370*vs Field wins Kentucky Derby

On to the Preakness and breaking it down ....
 

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