Kaboom's Derby Notes/Trends

[Kaboom]

Feel free to add on guys .... AWD means Average Winning Distance

Year	Derby Winner	Sire AWD	Dam Sire AWD	Combined Sire / Dam AWD
2017	Always Dreaming	7.1	6.4	13.2
2016	Nyquist	7.1	7.2	14.3
2015	American Pharoah	7.4	6.3	13.7
2014	California Chrome	6.4	6.5	12.9
2013	Orb	7	7.8	14.8
2012	I’ll Have Another	7.3	7.7	15
2011	Animal Kingdom	6.9	10.4	17.3
2010	Super Saver	7	8.2	15.2
2009	Mine That Bird	6.6	7.4	14
2008	Big Brown	7	7.9	14.9
2007	Street Sense	7	7.1	14.1
2006	Barbaro	8.3	6.4	14.7
2005	Giacamo	6.9	7	13.9
2004	Smarty Jones	6.2	6.4	12.6
2003	Funny Cide	6.3	6.6	12.9
2002	War Emblem	6.7	7.5	14.2
	Average	AVG 7	AVG 7	AVG 14
2018	Derby Possible's	Sire AWD	Damsire AWD	Combined Sire / Dam AWD	Notes
	Audible	6.7	6.4	13.1	Since 2002 Only 1 Horse has won with Combined Sire and Dam
					below 13.2 and that's Calf Chrome in 2014 had a 12.9
	Noble Indy	6.8	6.3	13.1	Since 2002 Only 1 Horse has won with Combined Sire and Dam
					below 13.2 and that's Calf Chrome in 2014 had a 12.9
	Mendelssohn	7.2	6.6	13.8
	Bolt d' Oro	7.7	8.2	15.9
	Enticed	7.7	7.2	14.9
	Bravazo	7.4	6.6	14
	Promises Fulfilled	6.6	6.9	13.5
	Magnum Moon	7.1	7.2	14.3
	Runaway Ghost	7.2	6.9	14.1
	Quip	7.1	6.7	13.8
	Lone Sailor	7	6.9	13.9
	Rayya	6.9	6.8	13.7
	Hofburg	7.6	6.9	14.5
	Good Magic	7.5	7.4	14.9
	Solomini	7.5	7.1	14.6
	My Boy Jack	6.9	7.2	14.1
	Flameaway	7.2	7.2	14.4
	Firenze Fire	6.5	7.2	13.7
	Gronkowski	6.8	7.5	14.3
	Free Drop Willy	7.2	8.1	15.3
	Catholic Boy	7	7.6	14.6
	Snapper Sinclair	6.5	6.4	12.9	Since 2002 Only 1 Horse has won with Combined Sire and Dam
					below 13.2 and that's Calf Chrome in 2014 had a 12.9
	Combatant	7.2	7.1	14.3
	Blended Citizen	7	7.2	14.2
	Reride	7	7.6	14.6
	Strike Power	6.5	7.7	14.2
	Dream Baby Dream	6.7	6	12.7	Since 2002 Only 1 Horse has won with Combined Sire and Dam
					below 13.2 and that's Calf Chrome in 2014 had a 12.9
	Old Time Revival	5.8	6.8	12.6	Since 2002 Only 1 Horse has won with Combined Sire and Dam
					below 13.2 and that's Calf Chrome in 2014 had a 12.9
	Instilled Regard	7.9	6.4	14.3
	Peace	6.6	7	13.6
	Givemeaminute	6.5	7.6	14.1
	Greyvitos	7.1	6.9	14
	Gold Town	8	7.1	15.1
	Kanthaka	6	6.4	12.4	Since 2002 No Winners below 12.6 Com Sire/Dam AWD
	Pony Up	7	8.2	15.2
	Vin Rosso	7.5	8	15.5
	Tiz Mischief	6.7	7.6	14.3
	Ayacara	6.6	7.5	14.1
	Title Ready	7	7.3	14.3
	Machismo	7	7.6	14.3
	Arawak	7.4	7	14.4
	All out Blitz	6.6	7.6	14.2
	Coltandmiss	7.5	6.2	13.7
	Sporting Chance	7.6	7	13.7
	Dark Vader	6.7	6.6	13.3
	Marconi	7.6	6.3	13.9
	Take the One O One	7	6.8	13.8
	Zing Zang	7.6	6.9	14.3
	High North	7	7.4	14.4
	Shivermetimbers	6.2	7.2	13.4
	Exclamation Point	6.6	6.7	13.3
		Sire AWD	Dam Sire AWD	Combined Sire / Dam AWD	Note
	Justify	7.2	7.2	14.4	Both Horses out of Storm Cat Sire
2016	Nyquist ( Won Derby )	7.1	7.2	14.3	Very Similar AWD

 

[Baldheadedprick]

[h=4]2018 KENTUCKY DERBY FREE PAST PERFORMANCES HERE BY POINTS LEADERS, AS OF (04/10/18)[/h]

 

[Kaboom]

Expressbets // posted 2017

Since 2009, only Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have challenged ‘Apollo’s Curse’ by starting sophomores in the Kentucky Derbythat did not race as 2-year-olds. With such runners the pair of powerhouse trainers is a combined 0-for-4 during that time. In the past three Derbies, Materiality (6th in 2015) is the only one to attempt to vault the 1882 hurdle which now is 59: 0-3-4 all time.

Last Foreign-Bred to Win: Sunny’s Halo (1983) Canada

Last New Jersey-Bred to Win: Cavalcade (1934)

 

[Kaboom]

Last 25 Years of Derby Winners ...Leading Female Family Line Number is ( 1 ) ... There have been 5 Derby Winners with Female Family Line # 1

This Year's Female Family Line which carry the # 1 ... some of these may not enter

Justify

Quip

Noble Indy

Pony Up

Givemeaminute


I broke down every horse that was entered in the Derby the last 25 years

The #1 Female Family Line ..17 / 68 entries or 25% finished in the Top 4 Positions ...1st / 2nd / 3rd or 4th ... Very good !!!

Out of those 17 ... 12 of those finished in either 1st or 2nd place or 71 % .... WOW !!!

I have all the breakdowns for all the families , which I believe is a nice tool to determine who may finish in the Top 4 Positions ...

Not sure how this will pan out , but if I can't decide between a few horses , I'm going with the history of these Female Family Lines ...

GL !!

 

[Kaboom]

Only 22 days until Kentucky Derby 144

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Justify[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Bob Baffert[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Scat Daddy[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: California[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 1st, Santa Anita Derby, Apr 7[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"Has never faced adversity..." Either did American Pharoah, the great ones carve out adverse free trips. A deserving derby favorite but Apollo curse looms large.[/FONT]	[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Enticed[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Medaglia d'Oro[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Florida[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 2nd, Wood Memorial, Apr 7[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Gut mugged down the stretch and was shocked they didnt take Vino Rosso down. I question added distance with this one however. Solid horse.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bolt d'Oro[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Mick Ruis[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Medaglia d'Oro[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: California[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 2nd, Santa Anita Derby, Apr 7[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Can't knock him too much for 2nd place finish in Santa Anita Derby. Fast closing fractions were there, just couldn't catch a possible freak.[/FONT]	[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Quip[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Distorted Humor[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Florida[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 1st, Tampa Bay Derby, Mar 10[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race:[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]With the pace so slow, I just don't know what to make of this race. Quip punched his ticket any way you slice it.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Audible[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Todd Pletcher[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Into Mischief[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Florida[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 1st, Florida Derby, Mar 31[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Warming up to this one as he fits the buckpasser-x and fast closing fractions angle that has been very strong indicator of hitting the derby exacta.[/FONT]	[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] [/FONT]​ [FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Promises Fulfilled[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Dale Romans[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Shackleford[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Florida[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 9th, Florida Derby, Mar 31[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Did not look great in post parade and fell victim to speed duel with Strike Power. Don't think he has what it takes to be a major factor in Kentucky Derby.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Mendelssohn[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Simon Callaghan[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Aidan O'Brien[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Europe[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 1st, UAE Derby, Mar 31[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Ran 106 beyer in 18 1/2 length UAE Derby romp. Was aided by track bias on that day.[/FONT]	[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Hofburg[/FONT] ​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: William Mott[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Tapit[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Florida[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 2nd, Florida Derby, Mar 31[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sired by Tapit he ran 2nd in Florida Derby after pace meltdown. Have to dig deeper but 1st impression; not a threat in Kentucky Derby.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Good Magic[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Chad Brown[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Curlin[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: New York[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 1st, Bluegrass Stakes, Apr 7[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bounced back nicely in Bluegrass cementing himself as a legit contender for Chad Brown.[/FONT]	[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Lone Sailor[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Tom Amoss[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Majestic Warrior[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Louisiana[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 2nd, Louisiana Derby, Mar 24[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Considering the pace if he was a legit derby win contender he would of caught Noble Indy.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Magnum Moon[/FONT] ​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Todd Pletcher[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Malibu Moon[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Florida[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 1st, Rebel Stakes, Mar 17[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Arkansas Derby, Apr 14[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Impressive win in Rebel, We have 2 horses with a chance to break the Apollo curse.[/FONT]	[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Runaway Ghost[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Todd Fincher[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Ghostzapper[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: New Mexico[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 1st, Sunland Derby, Mar 25[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hasn't been up against the top of the crop but 6 finishes in the money in 7 career starts with 4 wins.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Flameaway[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Mark Cassee[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Scat Daddy[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Florida[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 2nd, Bluegrass Stakes, Apr 7[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A true versatile warrior that brings it every time. His heart may be his best asset. As honest a race horse as you will find. Must play underneath in all exotics and if the race falls apart, ya never know.[/FONT]	[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]My Boy Jack[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Keith Desormeaux[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Creative Cause[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Arkansas[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 3rd, Louisiana Derby, Mar 24[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Lexington, Apr 14[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Will qualify for Derby off 3rd place finish but that closing move was fools gold. Someone had to close into that blazing pace. Poor mans Exaggerator?[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Solomini[/FONT] ​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Bob Baffert[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Curlin[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: California[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 2nd, Rebel Stakes, Mar 17[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Wood Memorial[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Caught a rough trip, off a long layoff, but still wasnt catching Magnum Moon in Rebel.[/FONT]	[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Combatant[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Steve Asmussen[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Scat Daddy[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Arkansas[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 3rd, Rebel Stakes, 2017[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Arkansas Derby, Apr 14[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]He's a grinder that keeps hitting the board. Water will keep getiing deeper. A poor man's Practical Joke.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Vino Rosso[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Todd Pletcher[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Curlin[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: New York[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 1st, Wood Memorial, Apr 7[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Raise A Native sire line, Buckpasser in the X, closed final 3/8 of Wood in 37.59. Fits a lot of angles to be a factor in Derby.[/FONT]	[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bravazo[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: D. Wayne Lucas[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Awesome Again[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Kentucky[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 8th, Louisiana Derby, Mar 24[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This:https://twitter.com/horseracing4beg/status/977683934635900929[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Noble Indy[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Todd Pletcher[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Take Charge Indy[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Florida[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 1st, Louisiana Derby, Mar 24[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hung right up near a blazing pace in LA Derby and still had enough to hang on. Impressive, but may be an indictment of his competition.[/FONT]	[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] [/FONT]​ [FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Gronkowski[/FONT]​ [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trainer: Jeremy Noseda[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sire: Lonhro[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stationed: Europe[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last Race: 1st, Burradon Stakes, Mar 30[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 5[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Punches ticket to Kentucky winning Euro Road To The Derby.[/FONT]

 

[Kaboom]

Broke down last 18 years...... ( Win/Place/Show/ 4th place Horses ) of the Kentucky Derby and to my surprise ....

35 / 54 that finished in Win / Place or Show Spots or 65 % finished in 4th or worse place the race prior to Kentucky Derby ...

49 Horses that finished 1st/2nd/3rd or 4th place out of 72 or 68% ... Finished in 4th or worse place the race prior to the Kentucky Derby ..

Last Year 2017 3/4 Finished 4 or better in race prior to Derby .... fyi

Summary

65% of all horses that finish 1st / 2nd or 3rd in the Kentucky Derby ...finished 4th or worse in their race prior to the Kentucky Derby ...

68% of all horses that finished in the Top 4 Spots .....finished 4th or worse in their race prior to the Kentucky Derby ...


Interesting ....


Feel free to add notes / trends to the thread if you have something to share ....

 

[Kaboom]

[FONT=&quot] Audible.......His stamina is at an 11 in the Conduit Mare Numbers . While that does not mean he can’t win, the last time a horse with that low a stamina number has won on the first Saturday was 1970.[/FONT]

 

[Kaboom]

Since 2010 ... Poss 24 Spots In the Money ... 1st / 2nd / 3rd place .... There have only been 3 ITM horses that had an Index of over 1.00 in the Conduit Mare Profile of a Pedigree ... with the highest being 1.05 Index 2015 Derby Winner last TC Winner American Pharoah

There was a horse that finished 4th since 2010 too ... Index 1.14 ...just an fyi


2018 Derby Horses ( Contenders ) that have over a 1.00 Index

Audible 1.32

Noble Indy 1.42

Bolt d' Oro 1.00

Enticed 1.19

Mendelssohn 1.09

Quip 1.04

Bravazo 1.14

My Boy Jack 1.52

Free Drop Billy 1.14

Hofburg 1.04

Combatant 1.27

Snapper Sinclair 1.35

Restoring hope 1.14


Of the 3 Horses that finished ITM their Center of Distribution or CD inside the pedigree chart was lower than 1.01 ....

So any horse that has an Index over 1.00 and a CD over 1.00 ...None have finished in the money ( ITM ) since 2010 last 8 years .. so 0-24 ...

This year's horses that ...if tailing this angle ...we can toss

Audible 1.17 CD..... watch him burn my ass ...lol ... trends do fail guys ...just beware

Snapper Sinclair 1.30 CD


Thoughts / Feedback ...always appreciated ...

 

[Kaboom]

Audible.......His stamina is at an 11 in the Conduit Mare Numbers . While that does not mean he can’t win, the last time a horse with that low a stamina number has won on the first Saturday was 1970.

Audible is a NY Bred ....only 1 ( Funny Cide ) has ever won the derby

 

[Michelangelo]

Good work, sir. Thanks.

 

[Kaboom]

Good work, sir. Thanks.

Thx bro ... !! GL

 

[Kaboom]

My Top 10

Justify ... by 5 lengths or more

Bolt D' Oro

Good Magic

Mendelssohn

Hofburg

Magnum Moon

Vino Rosso

Audible

Enticed

Noble Indy

 

[wabashwonders]

My Top 10

Justify ... by 5 lengths or more

Bolt D' Oro

Good Magic

Mendelssohn

Hofburg

Magnum Moon

Vino Rosso

Audible

Enticed

Noble Indy

I’m curious as to what is it you see to say “by 5 lengths or more” at this point? I mean saying Justify to win is one thing but you really think at this stage he is that much better than every other horse? Would his post matter? This looks like a pretty good field to me so if you see something specific I’m just curious what it is. Thanks for all the info.

 

[Kaboom]

I’m curious as to what is it you see to say “by 5 lengths or more” at this point? I mean saying Justify to win is one thing but you really think at this stage he is that much better than every other horse? Would his post matter? This looks like a pretty good field to me so if you see something specific I’m just curious what it is. Thanks for all the info.

Honestly bro ..I really have nothing to lose but throwing out the 5 lengths or more ....just to be different , is all .... Nothing I see in past races , tells me he will beat this field by more than 5 lengths ....just a gut feel , which at times has paid off for me in the past ...

I really love how much bigger he looks than all the other horses entered in the Derby ....

Are u leaning on anyone yet bro ?

Appreciate your insight , as well ....

 

[wabashwonders]

Honestly bro ..I really have nothing to lose but throwing out the 5 lengths or more ....just to be different , is all .... Nothing I see in past races , tells me he will beat this field by more than 5 lengths ....just a gut feel , which at times has paid off for me in the past ...

I really love how much bigger he looks than all the other horses entered in the Derby ....

Are u leaning on anyone yet bro ?

Appreciate your insight , as well ....

A number of horses look very good to me but if I had to pick one from the list of favorites I like Mendelssohn the best. As for longshots I like Hofburg and My Boy Jack. I think it’s one of the best fields the Derby has had been in recent years.

 

[Kaboom]

[FONT=&quot]Hey guys ...very new to the game with the pedigree angles ...so be cool ... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Since 2010 .... Top 4 Spots in exotics ....that's 32 Spots ...win / place / show / 4th pl[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]There has never been a horse where a horse has finished in the Top 4 Spots with a first Triads Number in the 20's ..... [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]This year's horse with first number in Triads in the 20's ? [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Audible .... 22 - 23 - 19 [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Just posting ...by far ...not a say all .... I can care less if you like Audible or not ...[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Other facts [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The exact 2-d Female family line last 25 years 3/6 ( 1 win/pl/show ) in the money ... Hello Hofburg ???...2005 Giacomo won Derby at huge odds .... 2002 Proud Citizen ..Placed ....2006 Steppenwolfer Showed [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The exact female family line A-4 ... 2/5 in the money last 25 years .... a win and place .... 2014 Calf Chrome won Derby ....1994 Strodes Creek... Placed [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Hello ..Lone Sailor ....[/FONT]

 

[Kaboom]

From 1992 - 2017 ... Derby ...Top 4 Finishes ...with Exact Match Female Family Lines

with this year's Contenders .... Not mentioning 2 or less times Female Family Line Finished in Top 4 ....

2-d ...Hofburg .....3 Times in Top 4 ...a.... 1st / 2nd / 3rd

9-e Blended Citizen ....4 Times in Top 4 ....(2) Second Places ...(2) Fourth Places

9-e Audible ....4 Times in Top 4 ....(2) Second Places ...(2) Fourth Places

23-b Mendelssohn ...4 Times in Top 4 ....(3) Wins ....(1) 3rd Place

If you take away the letter and just use the family number ...this is all different .... fyi

 

[Baldheadedprick]

Kaboom great info thanks

 

[Kaboom]

Kaboom great info thanks

Hope it helps some people ??? Thx bro !

 

[Kaboom]

HORSE
OPEN
CURRENT

Justify
9/5
2/1

Magnum Moon
4/1
4/1

Mendelssohn
5/1
9/2

Bolt d'Oro
5/1
5/1

Good Magic
7/1
7/1

Audible
10/1
10/1

Vino Rosso
12/1
12/1

My Boy Jack
20/1
16/1

Enticed
18/1
18/1

Solomini
20/1
20/1

Instilled Regard
200/1
20/1

Noble Indy
20/1
24/1

Hofburg
30/1
30/1

Flameaway
30/1
40/1

Lone Sailor
30/1
40/1

Combatant
50/1
40/1

Bravazo
50/1
50/1

Free Drop Billy
50/1
50/1

Promises Fulfilled
50/1
50/1

Restoring Hope
50/1
50/1

Strike Power
50/1
50/1

Firenze Fire
60/1
60/1

Snapper Sinclair
75/1
75/1

Dream Baby Dream
50/1
100/1