Just how bad the real estate situation is in the PHX area...

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Not looking for sympathy here at all. Just reporting the facts. This is rather eye opening I think.

We bought our home a little over 3 years ago. This was about 9 months before the housing boom hit its peak here in the PHX area. We bought the home as a HOME to live in and raise our family, not necessarily as an investment. Although this is always a consideration when anyone buys a home.

We signed the papers to build a new home in December of 2004. The purchase price at that time for a 4 bedroom + den, 2.5 bathrooms, 2 car garage was 260K. By the time our home was completed and moved into (June 2005), the same model was selling for a STARTING price of 300K. This was the price before upgrades.

We had our house appraised 9 months after we moved in because we were refinancing our 2nd for a better rate. The house appraised at that time for $350K. This was a conservative number as many of our models were selling in the $370K-$390K range at that time.

About 2 years later this is where we stand. Every 4th house in our neighborhood looks vacant. You can tell by the weeds in the front yard. Every 4th house has a for sale sign. No houses are moving.

How much are people ASKING for our model? 190K is about the average. 190K and they still arent selling. This number of 190K is HALF the price of what houses were selling for about 2 years ago.

The unfortunate people that bought at the peak have lost 50 percent of the value of their home. Many are just mailing their keys in and leaving. They would rather take the hit on the credit, then wait it out for years until they get back to even.

Unfortunately I dont think we have seen the worst. I really feel that the real estate crises, coupled with gas prices, is going to bring our nation's economy to its knees within the next 18 months.

I know a lot of people have been saying this. But I really dont think that people realize just how bad the real estate situation is.

It will affect everyone. Not just those with houses.
 

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I usually pick up the Sunday paper and spend parts of the day reading it leisurely.

Two things have stood out in the past couple months:

1) The help wanted/job ads have been steadily shrinking. Used to be you would see a full page of casino ads and now you are lucky to see even two or three individual ads. The paper is also supplementing the section by putting in filler ads like subscribe to the paper or read Jim's column in the employment section.

2) The housing section amazes me. There are a few ads for homes for sale and then pages and pages of ads of houses for rent. I'd say it is a 5:1 ratio of rental ads to sale ads.

These two things have been increasing in the past few months and it is a sign of an ever-increasingly troubled economy.
 

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Not looking for sympathy here at all. Just reporting the facts. This is rather eye opening I think.

We bought our home a little over 3 years ago. This was about 9 months before the housing boom hit its peak here in the PHX area. We bought the home as a HOME to live in and raise our family, not necessarily as an investment. Although this is always a consideration when anyone buys a home.

We signed the papers to build a new home in December of 2004. The purchase price at that time for a 4 bedroom + den, 2.5 bathrooms, 2 car garage was 260K. By the time our home was completed and moved into (June 2005), the same model was selling for a STARTING price of 300K. This was the price before upgrades.

We had our house appraised 9 months after we moved in because we were refinancing our 2nd for a better rate. The house appraised at that time for $350K. This was a conservative number as many of our models were selling in the $370K-$390K range at that time.

About 2 years later this is where we stand. Every 4th house in our neighborhood looks vacant. You can tell by the weeds in the front yard. Every 4th house has a for sale sign. No houses are moving.

How much are people ASKING for our model? 190K is about the average. 190K and they still arent selling. This number of 190K is HALF the price of what houses were selling for about 2 years ago.

The unfortunate people that bought at the peak have lost 50 percent of the value of their home. Many are just mailing their keys in and leaving. They would rather take the hit on the credit, then wait it out for years until they get back to even.

Unfortunately I dont think we have seen the worst. I really feel that the real estate crises, coupled with gas prices, is going to bring our nation's economy to its knees within the next 18 months.

I know a lot of people have been saying this. But I really dont think that people realize just how bad the real estate situation is.

It will affect everyone. Not just those with houses.


First of all, let me say I feel for you and apperciate your honesty, most people say they sold at the high watermark and are just using the examples as numbers.

In reference to economy, I agree with you completely, the housing market imo is not coming back for at least 24-36 months.
 
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I was in Phoenix and noticed the same thing. Not like the real estate market is doing great here, but that 50%+ number that Wildcat threw out is dead on. I've never seen anything like it in my life.
 

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Funny

I'll give you $140k...sight unseen.

Deal?

Funny...

It looks like I wont be selling this house for at least 5 years. Thats really fine by me though. I love the house. We love the area. We are in a community in far north Phoenix. A little ways out of the hustle and bustle so to speak.

2 things that suck. If we bought this house today, our mortgage would be at most 2/3 of what we now pay. And gas is hitting us hard because we are on the outskirts. 400 bucks a month in gas is a tough pill to swallow.

Hunker down. Look at the budget and cut all corners. Keep our jobs and ride it out! Thats the only option.
 

Rx. Poster
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I hear ya. Its no picnic here either but, you definately top ticked the market. How could you know? There's no way.

I bought YHOO at $95 in 1999.

By the way, Phoenix is not on the west coast.
 

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I hear ya. Its no picnic here either but, you definately top ticked the market. How could you know? There's no way.

I bought YHOO at $95 in 1999.

By the way, Phoenix is not on the west coast.

Not yet !

:drink:
 

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I hear ya. Its no picnic here either but, you definately top ticked the market. How could you know? There's no way.

I bought YHOO at $95 in 1999.

By the way, Phoenix is not on the west coast.

Thanks for the education. I'm actually aware that PHX is not literally on the west coast.

Wasnt really wanting to pinpoint where I was from when I signed up back then. West Coast was close enough I guess.
 

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I am curious as to appox. where abouts is your place. I grew up in the 44th st. and Thomas road area. You got me thinking so I went in to the classifies and found that was on the same street and they were asking 445,000 which is ridiculously HIGH for these houses IMO. So is it just certain areas of the valley getting hit????? thanks and good luck.
 

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Something else that stuck out to me was the property taxes of 1700.00 a year, pretty cheap. Up here in Seattle area I am more than double that for a house similar in value. Just for your info the house I was looking at was 4307 e. pinchot.
 

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I am curious as to appox. where abouts is your place. I grew up in the 44th st. and Thomas road area. You got me thinking so I went in to the classifies and found that was on the same street and they were asking 445,000 which is ridiculously HIGH for these houses IMO. So is it just certain areas of the valley getting hit????? thanks and good luck.

The community is called Anthem. Located about 15 minutes north of Bell Road on I-17. Literally nothing was here 8 years ago. Now I would imagine there close to about 10,000 homes in this community. A quarter of them are probably vacant. Investers hit this place hard 3-4 years ago. Now the homes just sit and the weeds grow. Not good. Not good....
 

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What I find most interesting is that in Miami (I'm in the market) realtors are selling so little they have stopped posting on Craigslist. 3 years ago if a condo went on sale, 10 realtors would put it on Craigslist. Now if one puts it up every 2 weeks, it is unusual.

Get your dollars and credit ready - a year or two or three from now, we are going to be buying things pennies on the dollar.

Hate to tell you, but I bet areas of Miami, Phoenix, LV, LA, etc get cut in half again.

Sean
 

" Thanks for tip Bricktop "
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What I find most interesting is that in Miami (I'm in the market) realtors are selling so little they have stopped posting on Craigslist. 3 years ago if a condo went on sale, 10 realtors would put it on Craigslist. Now if one puts it up every 2 weeks, it is unusual.

Get your dollars and credit ready - a year or two or three from now, we are going to be buying things pennies on the dollar.

Hate to tell you, but I bet areas of Miami, Phoenix, LV, LA, etc get cut in half again.

Sean


If this happens I'm proper fucked.
 

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The community is called Anthem. Located about 15 minutes north of Bell Road on I-17. Literally nothing was here 8 years ago. Now I would imagine there close to about 10,000 homes in this community. A quarter of them are probably vacant. Investers hit this place hard 3-4 years ago. Now the homes just sit and the weeds grow. Not good. Not good....

My mother-in-law lives in Anthem. Hell of a commute and you are right about it being nothing 8 years ago.
 

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What I find most interesting is that in Miami (I'm in the market) realtors are selling so little they have stopped posting on Craigslist. 3 years ago if a condo went on sale, 10 realtors would put it on Craigslist. Now if one puts it up every 2 weeks, it is unusual.

Get your dollars and credit ready - a year or two or three from now, we are going to be buying things pennies on the dollar.

Hate to tell you, but I bet areas of Miami, Phoenix, LV, LA, etc get cut in half again.

Sean

I feel terrible for all those who are in deep but I hope you're right for my sake cause I've sold most of my investments here in Canada and looking to get some steals in the US in the upcoming future.
 

Oh boy!
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What I find most interesting is that in Miami (I'm in the market) realtors are selling so little they have stopped posting on Craigslist. 3 years ago if a condo went on sale, 10 realtors would put it on Craigslist. Now if one puts it up every 2 weeks, it is unusual.

Get your dollars and credit ready - a year or two or three from now, we are going to be buying things pennies on the dollar.

Hate to tell you, but I bet areas of Miami, Phoenix, LV, LA, etc get cut in half again.

Sean

I don't know about the other markets but the LA market is NOT going to get cut in half. It's not even at the halfway point now. It's never been cut in half even in worse times than now.

The average house price in nearby Orange County was $600,000. It's now $500,00.
 

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The PHX market really depends on where you live. Certain areas are doing fine, and the higher end market is still pretty strong.

I would think worse than gas prices would be that horrid commute along I-17. That alone would make me want to move.
 

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