Thanks Saratoga. I will be back, but just can't waste my time capping games right now when there's no point in it. Spend hours going over these games and they turn out in ways that I could never have even imagined. Eventually teams will start winning games when they should (like when they have a 5 run lead in the bottom of the 9th, or when they're playing one of the worst pitchers in the league). Until then I'm staying away, saving myself some money, and not wasting peoples' time here.
same here jibba. that is why im staying away for a while and enjoying my profits. some really weird shit going on. first and foremost relief pitching sucks. would someone please tell managers that in the old days your starter was your starter for a reason and pitched a ton of complete games. stop taking guys out when they hit that "magic number" of 100 pitches and letting some tool that barely made your roster that has an era over 6 come in and blow the game. horrible.
you would think with technology and nutrition that guys could pitch more these days, but i guess im an idiot. i think managers just outthink themselves and go by the book too much. later guys
you would think with technology and nutrition that guys could pitch more these days, but i guess im an idiot. i think managers just outthink themselves and go by the book too much. later guys
Yeah, it's definitely frustrating. But in the end, if we're going to gamble, we have to be responsible for factoring these things in. And I got too complacent with sticking to how I picked games when things were changing. I'll be back soon enough and hopefully will get back on the winning track. Got a good start to that yesterday actually. Once I get my confidence back, I'll start posting my plays again. Hopefully that will be sooner rather than later. Until then, I'll be around here and there and wish everyone the best of luck.
Updated record: Lost over 15 units in 3 days with a 3-13 (I think) stretch. Will probably just follow someone else for a few days unless there is something I really like. Really should just continue to clear my head. Thanks to everyone though. I've learned a ton from you guys. Fortunately, money management is one of those things.
Money Lines:
Favorites: 148-93 for +17.51 units (61.4%)
Underdogs: 56-61 for +11.74 units (47.9%)
Total: 204-154 for for +29.25 units (57%)
Totals: 5-1 for 5.13 units
Run Lines: 12-14 for -0.04 units
Parlays: 1-3 for -2.97 units
Money Lines:
Favorites: 148-93 for +17.51 units (61.4%)
Underdogs: 56-61 for +11.74 units (47.9%)
Total: 204-154 for for +29.25 units (57%)
Totals: 5-1 for 5.13 units
Run Lines: 12-14 for -0.04 units
Parlays: 1-3 for -2.97 units
Jibba,
Hang in there and do not forget the bigger picture- that you have a positive ROI year to date. Baseball is a long season with a lot of cyclical changes that leaves every style of bettor vulnerable to a rough stretch. Every bettor is bound to experience a rough stretch over the course of the season, and if one is fortunate to avoid it, it is more of a product of luck rather than skill. The goal is not to avoid such stretches; rather the goal is to respond appropriately to it. First of all, do not misperceive the last few days as a “slump” where you are not seeing the games “clearly”, rather look at it as what it truly is- randomness. I guarantee you that you know just as much about baseball the last three days as you did last week. Your perception on the players the last three days is just as accurate as they were during one of your profitable stretches. But the beauty of this endeavor is that we are dealing with human beings, that don’t always play to their true worth, making handicapper’s second guess their judgment.
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It has been my experience with bettors that after a few bad days of returns (which was merely a product of randomness, bad luck, and games deviating from fundamental form) is when the handicapper truly hits his slump. They misperceive the few bad days as a slump, and feel the need to change their handicapping style (which usually contains more emotion) and feel the need to press their bets and chase. This is when the capitulation stages occurs, which is a product of why such a high rate of gamblers lose (ironically originally caused over a short span of randomness).
<o> </o>
Don’t second guess your approach too much. But this opens up doors to rationally think out some minor tweaks that could improve results. I am not going to tell you not to take time off, but do realize the true derivation of the bad stretch. Come back confident of your abilities and never handicap scared.
<o> </o>
Good luck.<o></o>
Hang in there and do not forget the bigger picture- that you have a positive ROI year to date. Baseball is a long season with a lot of cyclical changes that leaves every style of bettor vulnerable to a rough stretch. Every bettor is bound to experience a rough stretch over the course of the season, and if one is fortunate to avoid it, it is more of a product of luck rather than skill. The goal is not to avoid such stretches; rather the goal is to respond appropriately to it. First of all, do not misperceive the last few days as a “slump” where you are not seeing the games “clearly”, rather look at it as what it truly is- randomness. I guarantee you that you know just as much about baseball the last three days as you did last week. Your perception on the players the last three days is just as accurate as they were during one of your profitable stretches. But the beauty of this endeavor is that we are dealing with human beings, that don’t always play to their true worth, making handicapper’s second guess their judgment.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>It has been my experience with bettors that after a few bad days of returns (which was merely a product of randomness, bad luck, and games deviating from fundamental form) is when the handicapper truly hits his slump. They misperceive the few bad days as a slump, and feel the need to change their handicapping style (which usually contains more emotion) and feel the need to press their bets and chase. This is when the capitulation stages occurs, which is a product of why such a high rate of gamblers lose (ironically originally caused over a short span of randomness).
<o
> </o>Don’t second guess your approach too much. But this opens up doors to rationally think out some minor tweaks that could improve results. I am not going to tell you not to take time off, but do realize the true derivation of the bad stretch. Come back confident of your abilities and never handicap scared.
<o
> </o>Good luck.<o
></o>Thank you BG. You're absolutely right. My fear is that I am, in fact, chasing. I know these stretches become easier the longer one has been doing this, and that kind of experience is one thing I have yet to gain completely. By now, I should expect these kinds of stretches and be willing to deal with them appropriately, but still haven't quite been able to shake my own tilt factor.
Thanks for putting it in perspective. Maybe I'll jump right back in, but keep my plays to a half unit each. My biggest issue is just getting my confidence back. I'm a little apprehensive of going right back to the big dogs after a few tough losses with dogs recently, but I can't fix the "problem" by chasing with big favorites hoping to win back those losses easily. Just not the way it works. Nothing comes easy. Thanks again.
Thanks for putting it in perspective. Maybe I'll jump right back in, but keep my plays to a half unit each. My biggest issue is just getting my confidence back. I'm a little apprehensive of going right back to the big dogs after a few tough losses with dogs recently, but I can't fix the "problem" by chasing with big favorites hoping to win back those losses easily. Just not the way it works. Nothing comes easy. Thanks again.
