Jibba's Tuesday MLB

[BigCat]

BOL tonight with your plays!

 

[Loren78]

Shame on the Marlins, would have taken them if I had to choose...I did not expect that kind of performance from Carlyle.....I expect a different outcome for the Tigers,Padres & Sox Games....GL!!!!!!!!

 

[NickFantana]

I really don't like Young in this spot. I think he is due to get absolutely torched.

Look at his HR%/fly ball rate. (3.5% of his fly balls are going for homers). Data shows pitchers have little or no control over whether their fly balls go for homers.
"HR/Fly or HR/F (Link)<dl><dd>Home Runs as a percent of outfield flyballs. The home run totals are adjusted by the home ballpark's historic home run rates. Research has shown that about 11% to 12% of outfield flies are hit for home runs. For pitchers, significant variations from 11% are probably the result of "luck," but for hitters this stat is more indicative of a true skill (hitting the ball hard!)."</dd></dl>Basically, he is an extreme flyball pitcher who's hr rate/fly balls will likely triple from here on out. He is only getting 27.6% Ground Balls (lowest in Baseball, this is bad), while also allowing 19.5% Line Drives (high or very high).

Last year he had 13.2% of Fly's become homers. If you normalize his homer rate, his era would be 4.49 this year. Tread with caution Jibba.

Isn't it also possible that he's adjusted his stuff a little bit? Last year his GB/FB ratio was the lowest since he's been in the bigs. And it's worth mentioning that he pitches in the worst home run hitters park in the league, especially at night. If you could ever survive being a flyball pitcher it would be at Petco. The Padres should trade for Scott Elarton.

 

[Jibba]

Gonna be an awful night. I can feel it. Bluejays came back from 5 down in the 9th to kill one of my big dogs. Don't see anyway the Drays can win after something like that. Probably won't get the chance anyways as they can't get anyone out and there are still 2 on and 1 out. Can't believe this shit.

 

[Nino]

Tough loss Jibba.....don't worry, Red Sox should win easily and Chris Young will come through..

 

[Jibba]

Just really pissed off right now. Can't catch a break and sick of being on the wrong end of these awful losses. Hope your night has gone better than my potentially giant 0-fer.

 

[Loren78]

I had a 0 for weekend not to far back...just brutal.....just hop right back on tommorrow cuz everything will be back to status quo....as these dogs can't get lucky every night...

 

[jowens7]

Stay positive bro, your playing on profit so theres nothing to hang your head about. Personally, I cant wait to see who your on tomorrow.

 

[Jibba]

Thanks guys. Was really frustrated last night. If I'm going to lose because guys like Carlyle and DiNardo are throwing 6 or 7 shutout innings, I feel like I'm better off flipping a coin. And I'd like to say I'm playing with profit, but unfortunately I withdrew all my profits and then some awhile back to help out in getting a new car for the wife. Not in danger of busting out or anything, but would like to start building up the profits again. Easier said than done of course.

Anyway, seeing as how I'm frustrated and worn out from this to an extent, I'm just going to post a few plays here.

Brewers -114: 1.71 units to win 1.5.
White Sox +150: 1.5 units to win 2.25.
Angels -180: 2.7 units to win 1.5.
Padres -113: 1.7 units to win 1.5.
Rockies -1.5, +135: 1.5 units to win 2.03.
Indians -1.5, -112: 1.68 units to win 1.5.


Currently, the only game I'm looking all that strongly at is Atlanta. May add that one others if I see some good line movement. Also may end up starting a new thread with an updated record if I have time, but just burnt out right now. BOL to everyone today.

 

[Jibba]

Should be it for the day:

Atlanta -1.5, +166: Olsen is unhappy in Florida and MCab is out today. Braves haven't scored much lately, but I like this price. Atlanta's bats won't stay completely dry forever, even with Chipper likely to miss another few weeks now. 1 unit to win 1.66.

 

[Jibba]

If anyone is looking for a solid play in the two o'clock game, fading me is probably a very solid bet right now. Feel like I'm just not seeing these games right at all. May be baseball's way of telling me to clear my head a bit. Hopefully things turn around as the day goes on, but the Atlanta play looks like I can already chalk it up as a loss. Not like they're the Toronto Bluejays or anything. :lol:

 

[Jibba]

0-2 and soon to be a very big 0-3. Angels with a 4-0 lead and Lackey on the mound looked safe. Don't know where these Twins have been every single time I've bet on them this year. Really sorry to anyone who's been following or listening to me.

 

[ldabdou]

Howbout some hometown cooking tonight?

 

[sportsman]

Jibba shake these off brother, your one of the best cappers on here, and you know we all go through these ups and downs, but dont let this get you dont to bad, your better then that!

 

[Jibba]

Thanks for the positive words guys. Really been a tough two days. And as I'm sure most people here know, when things go bad in gambling, they go very bad. And that's what's happened the last couple days. Just can't catch a break. But you gotta take the good with the bad I guess.

Just two plays right now. Hopefully I can take it slow and try to build back up some of the profits. Chalk, chalk, chalk . . .

Toronto -210: 3.15 units to win 1.5.

Parlay - Toronto & Cleveland: 1 unit to win 1.10

 

[everythingthatsgreen]

Jibba, I hear ya, when things go bad, they go really bad. I think I am in the process of breaking out of my funk that has hit me for the last 2 weeks. Keep your head up.. Got any thoughts on Astros/Rockies, Phillies/Mets, Cubs/Braves?

 

[silver7]

Same Here Pal

Mon. I was up 49U, a/o this A.M. I`m down to 32. Will play thru Sun., if it hasn`t improved I`m pulling the plug till 8/30. Cutting size of units also. Feel like loading the whole thing up on Jake Ml & RL tonite. BOL Jib

 

[finman13]

take the spurs tonight

 

[Jibba]

I don't deserve to be gambling right now. I decided to lay off Pittsburgh and take Toronto, since in my eyes they should have been -400 in this spot. I just wanted to win a game and get an ounce of confidence. TB is the worst road team in 2 decades in baseball, possibly longer, and they have one of the worst 10 pitchers in baseball throw a great game against one of the better young pitchers in baseball, and against a team that was on fire until yesterday. Then it's Toronto's bullpen, as opposed to TB's, who blows it. Who knows, maybe TB will blow up like they did a few nights ago in the 9th (when they screwed me out of my +220 dog), but I don't get lucky apparently. I honestly can't believe that Toronto lost that game, and never even had the lead. I absolutely can't win and will not be back for awhile. I don't feel like losing any more money, which is all I do these days. Made some good money this season, but it's not happening anymore. Sorry again guys.

 

[Saratoga]

fade...

jibba : ( :ughhh: Jibba your one of the best. All of us have been through it. You'll be back soon. Your too good a capper'.