Jibba's Thursday MLB

[thecakeoff]

Daily pick record for buffettgambler on 05/30/2007

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD>Sport</TD><TD>Game</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Wager</TD><TD>Amount</TD><TD>Result</TD><TD>Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta
Milwaukee</TD><TD class=datacell>9
3</TD><TD class=datacell>Milwaukee 114
</TD><TD class=datacell>500
</TD><TD class=datacell>loss
</TD><TD class=datacell>-500
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Arizona
Philadelphia</TD><TD class=datacell>4
3</TD><TD class=datacell>Philadelphia -103
</TD><TD class=datacell>500
</TD><TD class=datacell>loss
</TD><TD class=datacell>-515
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>San Diego
Pittsburgh</TD><TD class=datacell>9
0</TD><TD class=datacell>San Diego -136
</TD><TD class=datacell>500
</TD><TD class=datacell>WON
</TD><TD class=datacell>+500
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Cleveland
Boston</TD><TD class=datacell>8
4</TD><TD class=datacell>Cleveland 167
</TD><TD class=datacell>500
</TD><TD class=datacell>WON
</TD><TD class=datacell>+835
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Florida
Chi. Cubs</TD><TD class=datacell>9
0</TD><TD class=datacell>Chi. Cubs -134
</TD><TD class=datacell>500
</TD><TD class=datacell>loss
</TD><TD class=datacell>-670
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Detroit
Tampa Bay</TD><TD class=datacell>3
5</TD><TD class=datacell>Detroit 107
</TD><TD class=datacell>500
</TD><TD class=datacell>loss
</TD><TD class=datacell>-500
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Seattle
LA Angels</TD><TD class=datacell>6
8</TD><TD class=datacell>Seattle 124
</TD><TD class=datacell>500
</TD><TD class=datacell>loss
</TD><TD class=datacell>-500
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[thecakeoff]

I do actually care who he's on. Love the wealth of knowledge and expertise we have here at the Rx, but he's still the best baseball capper (and possibly overall) that I've met on here.

hedge your seattle and san diego bets then

 

[Jibba]

Daily pick record for buffettgambler on 05/30/2007

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD>Sport</TD><TD>Game</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Wager</TD><TD>Amount</TD><TD>Result</TD><TD>Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta
Milwaukee
</TD><TD class=datacell>9
3
</TD><TD class=datacell>Milwaukee 114

</TD><TD class=datacell>500

</TD><TD class=datacell>loss

</TD><TD class=datacell>-500

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Arizona
Philadelphia
</TD><TD class=datacell>4
3
</TD><TD class=datacell>Philadelphia -103

</TD><TD class=datacell>500

</TD><TD class=datacell>loss

</TD><TD class=datacell>-515

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>San Diego
Pittsburgh
</TD><TD class=datacell>9
0
</TD><TD class=datacell>San Diego -136

</TD><TD class=datacell>500

</TD><TD class=datacell>WON

</TD><TD class=datacell>+500

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Cleveland
Boston
</TD><TD class=datacell>8
4
</TD><TD class=datacell>Cleveland 167

</TD><TD class=datacell>500

</TD><TD class=datacell>WON

</TD><TD class=datacell>+835

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Florida
Chi. Cubs
</TD><TD class=datacell>9
0
</TD><TD class=datacell>Chi. Cubs -134

</TD><TD class=datacell>500

</TD><TD class=datacell>loss

</TD><TD class=datacell>-670

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Detroit
Tampa Bay
</TD><TD class=datacell>3
5
</TD><TD class=datacell>Detroit 107

</TD><TD class=datacell>500

</TD><TD class=datacell>loss

</TD><TD class=datacell>-500

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>MLB</TD><TD class=datacell>Seattle
LA Angels
</TD><TD class=datacell>6
8
</TD><TD class=datacell>Seattle 124

</TD><TD class=datacell>500

</TD><TD class=datacell>loss

</TD><TD class=datacell>-500

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

You left out that he is #1 in winning percentage on the season over there. Anyway, I had two days worse than that last week, but I hope people would give me credit that my long-term winning percentage isn't around 15%.

 

[thecakeoff]

yeah he has great knowledge of the sport but people need to stop worshiping him and think for themselves he's a normal winning handicapper hitting a little bit above 60%

 

[everythingthatsgreen]

I have respect for him but no way I change how I feel about my Seattle bet. There is nothing anyone can tell me that could get me throw $1 on Padilla on the road. Maybe since the ML went from -132 all the way to -160 he is doing just for value but the steam isn't always wrong and its not always right.

 

[Jibba]

hedge your seattle and san diego bets then

I don't change my plays based on who he's on, althogh as I stated earlier in this thread, I always keep the possibility available if someone makes a strong case for betting against one of my choices. This is why I'm going to go over ETG's post and possibly re-evaluate the LAA/Baltimore game.

<TABLE class=data id=tblLeaderboard cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD>No.</TD><TD>Member</TD><TD>WLT</TD><TD>Pct</TD><TD>RSI</TD><TD>Units</TD><TD>Record</TD><TD id=tdStatus>Status</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>toadman22</TD><TD class=datacell>977-798-67</TD><TD class=datacell>55.04%</TD><TD class=datacell>5.77</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+56140</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>jsh73</TD><TD class=datacell>938-770-64</TD><TD class=datacell>54.92%</TD><TD class=datacell>5.22</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+51785</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>KidShingle</TD><TD class=datacell>870-760-56</TD><TD class=datacell>53.37%</TD><TD class=datacell>3.83</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+45307</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>flmmkrz</TD><TD class=datacell>316-218-16</TD><TD class=datacell>59.18%</TD><TD class=datacell>6.36</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+42015</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>vaughn457</TD><TD class=datacell>822-673-47</TD><TD class=datacell>54.98%</TD><TD class=datacell>3.28</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+39350</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>gman50</TD><TD class=datacell>598-456-16</TD><TD class=datacell>56.74%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.89</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+38105</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>clepto</TD><TD class=datacell>668-580-38</TD><TD class=datacell>53.53%</TD><TD class=datacell>3.02</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+37790</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>skypaiger2</TD><TD class=datacell>443-327-22</TD><TD class=datacell>57.53%</TD><TD class=datacell>5.21</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+37565</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>nayrb23</TD><TD class=datacell>783-668-47</TD><TD class=datacell>53.96%</TD><TD class=datacell>3.32</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+36085</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>10</TD><TD class=datacell>Rbart330</TD><TD class=datacell>932-795-56</TD><TD class=datacell>53.97%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.90</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+35975</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>11</TD><TD class=datacell>Lowtide</TD><TD class=datacell>854-728-55</TD><TD class=datacell>53.98%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.86</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+35835</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>12</TD><TD class=datacell>ReddragonX</TD><TD class=datacell>548-466-22</TD><TD class=datacell>54.04%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.25</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+35080</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>13</TD><TD class=datacell>dlclelml</TD><TD class=datacell>419-284-6</TD><TD class=datacell>59.60%</TD><TD class=datacell>4.03</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+34490</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>14</TD><TD class=datacell>taruncheel</TD><TD class=datacell>915-782-59</TD><TD class=datacell>53.92%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.75</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+33972</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>15</TD><TD class=datacell>RESP</TD><TD class=datacell>469-362-26</TD><TD class=datacell>56.44%</TD><TD class=datacell>3.71</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+32580</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>16</TD><TD class=datacell>buffettgambler</TD><TD class=datacell>188-123-0</TD><TD class=datacell>60.45%</TD><TD class=datacell>5.74</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+31930</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>17</TD><TD class=datacell>cresten</TD><TD class=datacell>958-852-63</TD><TD class=datacell>52.93%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.27</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+31645</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>18</TD><TD class=datacell>HogzillaPicks</TD><TD class=datacell>578-452-31</TD><TD class=datacell>56.12%</TD><TD class=datacell>3.33</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+30693</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>19</TD><TD class=datacell>bloodhound</TD><TD class=datacell>561-443-24</TD><TD class=datacell>55.88%</TD><TD class=datacell>3.02</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+30450</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>20</TD><TD class=datacell>obmarn</TD><TD class=datacell>227-156-3</TD><TD class=datacell>59.27%</TD><TD class=datacell>4.30</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+29995</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>21</TD><TD class=datacell>jneu</TD><TD class=datacell>308-208-9</TD><TD class=datacell>59.69%</TD><TD class=datacell>4.51</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+29570</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>22</TD><TD class=datacell>greeneyeddevils</TD><TD class=datacell>899-812-65</TD><TD class=datacell>52.54%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.53</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+29472</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>23</TD><TD class=datacell>jint11</TD><TD class=datacell>752-663-44</TD><TD class=datacell>53.14%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.55</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+29275</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>24</TD><TD class=datacell>BC1</TD><TD class=datacell>626-578-43</TD><TD class=datacell>51.99%</TD><TD class=datacell>1.40</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+29265</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>25</TD><TD class=datacell>kwells68</TD><TD class=datacell>440-382-25</TD><TD class=datacell>53.53%</TD><TD class=datacell>1.77</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+29265</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>26</TD><TD class=datacell>PJBelle</TD><TD class=datacell>234-188-15</TD><TD class=datacell>55.45%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.62</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+29185</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>27</TD><TD class=datacell>sodbuster925</TD><TD class=datacell>597-564-25</TD><TD class=datacell>51.42%</TD><TD class=datacell>0.86</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+29095</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>28</TD><TD class=datacell>kensmith</TD><TD class=datacell>424-331-24</TD><TD class=datacell>56.16%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.98</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+29055</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>29</TD><TD class=datacell>eag801</TD><TD class=datacell>376-312-12</TD><TD class=datacell>54.65%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.46</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+28935</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>30</TD><TD class=datacell>george30</TD><TD class=datacell>523-415-10</TD><TD class=datacell>55.76%</TD><TD class=datacell>1.96</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+28065</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>31</TD><TD class=datacell>Fullbrights</TD><TD class=datacell>383-349-20</TD><TD class=datacell>52.32%</TD><TD class=datacell>1.35</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+28025</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>32</TD><TD class=datacell>Xeon</TD><TD class=datacell>488-399-33</TD><TD class=datacell>55.02%</TD><TD class=datacell>3.28</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+27370</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>33</TD><TD class=datacell>razorbacknutt1</TD><TD class=datacell>268-228-18</TD><TD class=datacell>54.03%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.04</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+27077</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>34</TD><TD class=datacell>mlevine</TD><TD class=datacell>1010-839-63</TD><TD class=datacell>54.62%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.75</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+27070</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>35</TD><TD class=datacell>dberry963</TD><TD class=datacell>534-467-21</TD><TD class=datacell>53.35%</TD><TD class=datacell>1.72</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+27061</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>36</TD><TD class=datacell>sas2</TD><TD class=datacell>258-198-12</TD><TD class=datacell>56.58%</TD><TD class=datacell>3.45</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+26715</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>37</TD><TD class=datacell>noble07</TD><TD class=datacell>286-201-7</TD><TD class=datacell>58.73%</TD><TD class=datacell>3.39</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+26605</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>38</TD><TD class=datacell>ummagumma</TD><TD class=datacell>784-710-48</TD><TD class=datacell>52.48%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.16</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+26480</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>39</TD><TD class=datacell>shuu</TD><TD class=datacell>747-689-51</TD><TD class=datacell>52.02%</TD><TD class=datacell>1.15</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+26441</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell>pending</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>40</TD><TD class=datacell>sugar74</TD><TD class=datacell>438-353-10</TD><TD class=datacell>55.37%</TD><TD class=datacell>2.56</TD><TD class=datacell-s>+26341</TD><TD class=datacell>View</TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I think you're exaggerating the responses about BG. Nobody worships him, as is clear by the fact that I (and others) are going against some of his plays. But Sonny was just trying to be helpful without starting a whole new thread with his plays.

 

[Jibba]

I have respect for him but no way I change how I feel about my Seattle bet. There is nothing anyone can tell me that could get me throw $1 on Padilla on the road. Maybe since the ML went from -132 all the way to -160 he is doing just for value but the steam isn't always wrong and its not always right.

That's my thoughts. We're talking about a line movement of 30+ points. Normally I'd give serious thought to going against that kind of movement. And it does make me slightly nervous. But I still love my M's play.

 

[finman13]

well thoughtout input cakeoff:+)

 

[Jibba]

Alright, here are my thoughts and reactions ETG.

Tigers/Indians: Agree with the under, and think under first 5 might be even better. Not sure I'll actually play it though. And after a lot of thought, I think I'm going to stay away from this game altogether unless I get +150 on the Tigers, and surprisingly, that's actually becoming a possibility (currently at +144). Tigers are reeling right now and as much as I want to back them as a big dog with Verlander on the hill, they've just got so many problems. Like you said, they are missing some key pieces in their bullpen, which has been really bad lately. And it looks like they will be without both Brandon Inge and Carlos Guillen tonight. Considering how well the Indians play at home, I just can't bring myself to back the Tigers without a very generous price. And I also don't like the idea of paying so much chalk to go against Verlander on the road, where he has been money. In the end, despite all of Detroit's problems, I think they are going to be pumped coming into this game, and getting +150 would be worth a gamble on them.


Mariners/Rangers: Completely agree with your thoughts on this one. Can't really add much on that one that I didn't include in my original writeup. I really like this one for us, and have to think the line movement of 30 points for us has to be a good sign.


Angels/Orioles: I'll admit that I had my eye on this one originally as well. But that's when I thought the line would be at a reasonable price, somewhere around -160 to -170. I agree that Burres hasn't been lights out so far as a starter, but to be fair, he's gotten the job done by giving up only 5 runs in his last 3 starts (one of which was in Boston, one of the toughest places and offenses to face as a lefty this year). With LAA being a middle of the pack team this year against lefties as far as OBP and SLG are concerned, I don't think he's going to be terribly overmatched.

Now, I agree that Escobar has really pitched well against these Orioles in the past, but that's just not a determinative factor for me in this one. This offense is clicking right now, and while I don't expect them to blow Escobar out of the water like Seattle did, I certainly think that they can get past their troubles with Escobar and score some runs in this one. But you make a solid argument, so much so that I think I'll drop a half unit from my O's play. Thanks for adding those well thought-out opinions. Feel free to post them here anytime if you feel like it.

Anyway, going to post the remainder of my card now, or at least what I have so far. Like Florida as Obermueller and Vargas have identical stats over their last 3 starts, and Florida is playing much, much better right now. Like the Cards as well, due in part because Cook is being overvalued. Colorado has been playing great, but not enough to justify being -160 favorites over the Cards IMO. I hope to go 1-1 with these two plays.

Mariners: 1.98 units to win 1.5.
Reds: 1.8 units to win 1.5.
Padres: 1.94 units to win 1.5.
Mets: 2.06 units to win 1.5.
Florida +154: 1.5 units to win 2.31.
St. Louis +160: 1.5 units to win 2.40.
Orioles: 1 unit to win 2.06.*


*See above discussion. I bought out of 0.5 units on the LAA game at the exact price I got them at (-206). I'll lose out on a tiny percentage of the bet depending on who wins. Sorry to all for changing a pick mid-day. This is the first time I've done it all year, and I would not expect to do it again for the rest of the year. But sometimes our judgment changes. I still like the value on the O's, but just not quite as much.

_______________________________________________________

I'll check back in when I get home from work. Not sure if I'll add anything tonight, although that Tigers line keeps creeping. BOL to everyone on their cards tonight.

 

[thecakeoff]

detroit tigers are now +144 at matchbook i also made the O's a small play at 0.5*

 

[finman13]

final card for me tonight jibba

dodgers
mets
marlins
cards
astros (arroyo just what the dr ordered)
angles rl
mariners
cavs and over

think the line is right on for the indians. pirates line only went up a pt and scared to take an average wsox team against halladay
bol jibba

 

[finman13]

lets add over 9.5 in marlins game

 

[everythingthatsgreen]

Jibba - Nice responses, appreciate it..

About the Cleveland game, I think I am an Under only play on that and that is provided the line hits 9 at Bet Jam from Over 8.5-125...I am the first one to admit I am a CC homer but I won't pay -150 to back him vs. Verlander, I missed that chance at -130. On the flip side, CC at home has been money this yr and the Tribe at home are real tough. As far as the O/U goes; that extra half run is the difference between losing on 9 runs, pushing on 9runs, or losing on 10runs, the latter two of which I desire. I have been beaten on that half run enough this yr so I am pretty stubborn about it.

Verlander has 4 starts vs. the Tribe, 3 last yr and 1 this yr.

5/26/07 In Detroit Vs. Sabathia: 6ip, 3h, 2r, 2er, 4bb, 5k, 1hr....Score 3-6 Clev
8/26/06 @ Clev Vs. Westbrook: 4.2ip, 10h, 8r, 8er, 1bb, 6k ..... Score 6-8 Clev
7/26/06 @ Clev Vs Sabathia: 6.2ip, 5h, 1r, 1er, 0bb, 8k, 1hr..... Score 4-1
5/27/06 In Detroit Vs. Byrd: 7ip, 7h, 1r, 1er, 1bb, 5k, 1hr.... Score 3-1

The four walks from him last game is a departure from the norm. Over the course of the yr he has walked 4+ guys in 3 of 10 starts. He has walked 1 or less in 6 of 10 starts this yr. I am expecting 1-2er, 3 would be the most the Tribe get off him in 6.1-7ip. I can't remember correctly but didn't Verlander start to fall off somewhere around late August? He is chugging along strong right now so I dont think he gets tagged for 8er again. I feel strongly about that.

You say that Inge and Guillen are out tonight:

Inge Vs. Sabathia: .105 in 38ab
Guillen Vs. Sabathia: .276 in 29ab

Inge being out tonight doesnt hurt the offense, he has only 4 hits in 38 at bats off CC. Guillen has 8 in 29ab, was 0-4 last game but is hitting .320ish on the yr and outside of Sheffield, he has had the most success in his career vs. CC. I would expect Omar Infante to replace Inge at 3rd and that is basically like giving a free out at the moment until proven differently.

Infante Vs. Sabathia: .125 in 16ab, 2hits, also 0-4 last game off CC.

I feel strong seeing a 3-2, 2-2, 2-1 game at the end of 6 or 7 innings. I don't like the Detroit bullpen situation at all as I stated above and the Indians are not shutdown either. Both of these pitchers are horses though so if they keep their pitch counts low they will be able to truck on into the 7th. That is where the ump comes in and presently I don't have the name of the ump but a big strike zone and a mostly Under ump and this play might fly at 8.5+105.

Detroit O/U on the road: 9-15-2
Cleveland O/U at home: 11-10

At 8.5 I like this play but it will bother me that I cant get it at 9. At 9, I feel really confident that 10 runs won't be scored combined between the two teams and at worse I walk away with a push.

Regarding the Halo's game, my intentions were to provide a counter argument and I will feel bad if the O's end up winning because you missed out on a nice +200 doggie at 1.5 Units? If the Angels spank them then I will be happy that I was able to save you .5unit.

I wish you the best of luck tonight in all of your games.

 

[Jibba]

Just going to respond to everyone here, rather than post a few times in a row.

thecakeoff,

They're down to +141 now. We'll see how the movement goes leading up 'til gametime. Probably just going to put in a bid at +150 or +152 and see what happens. As for the O's, would love to hit that big doggie tonight. Will be tough, but think they have a solid enough shot at the upset. And for what it's worth, this may or may not be encouraging to you:

Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels: -185 to –230 (line history)

Looks like the public thinks the Orioles five-game win streak will be snapped today at the hand of the Angels and maybe they should. Baltimore was favored in four of those five wins.

Starter Kelvin Escobar has been lights out so far this season. He is 6-2 with 2.64 earned run average and 45 strikeouts. The Angels have won in five of his last six starts.

“All the money has been Escobar and the Angels,” Catford says.

finman,

Agree on the Dodgers. Saw a few good cappers here on them and decided to follow with a small play (half unit) on that one. Still think Arroyo will be solid tonight, as he has been all year on the road, but certainly not his biggest supporter and wouldn't be shocked if he gets hit. Just like him a hell of a lot more than Woody. Agree on the Chi Sox. Just staying away. Will take a look at those NBA plays though. Thanks and BOL tonight.

ETG,

Solid stuff again. Thanks for posting all that info. We can never have enough around here. As for the O/U, there are a ton of trends over at covers.com.

Detroit:

• <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. <LI class=morehot>Over is 8-1 in Tigers last 9 on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Over is 6-1-1 in Tigers last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Over is 6-1-2 in Tigers last 9 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1-1 in Tigers last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Tigers last 7 road games. <LI class=morehot>Over is 9-2-1 in Tigers last 12 overall. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-1-1 in Tigers last 6 games following a loss. <LI class=more>Over is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 vs. American League Central. <LI class=more>Over is 24-9-2 in Tigers last 35 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. <LI class=more>Under is 36-15-1 in Tigers last 52 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=more>Under is 68-30-2 in Tigers last 100 games as an underdog. <LI class=more>Under is 38-17-2 in Tigers last 57 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=more>Under is 40-18-1 in Tigers last 59 games as a road underdog. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-1 in Verlander's last 5 road starts. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-0-1 in Verlander's last 5 starts vs. American League Central. <LI class=morehot>Over is 6-0 in Verlander's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1 in Verlander's last 8 starts as a road underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1 in Verlander's last 7 starts as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Over is 6-1-1 in Verlander's last 8 starts overall. <LI class=morehot>Over is 6-1-1 in Verlander's last 8 starts on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1 in Verlander's last 6 Thursday starts. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1 in Verlander's last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1-1 in Verlander's last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1 in Verlander's last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1 in Verlander's last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-1 in Verlander's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 8-2-1 in Verlander's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Verlander's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
• Over is 5-2 in Verlander's last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.

Cleveland:

• <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-0 in Indians last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Over is 13-3-3 in Indians last 19 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-1 in Indians last 5 vs. American League Central. <LI class=more>Over is 8-3-1 in Indians last 12 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=more>Over is 18-7-1 in Indians last 26 Thursday games. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2 in Indians last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=more>Over is 17-8-1 in Indians last 26 games as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-0 in Sabathia's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1 in Sabathia's last 6 Thursday starts. <LI class=more>Over is 10-3-1 in Sabathia's last 14 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=more>Under is 6-2 in Sabathia's last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3 in Sabathia's last 11 starts as a home favorite. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3 in Sabathia's last 11 home starts. <LI class=more>Over is 8-3-1 in Sabathia's last 12 starts during game 1 of a series. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3 in Sabathia's last 11 starts vs. American League Central. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3 in Sabathia's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=more>Over is 5-2 in Sabathia's last 7 starts overall. <LI class=more>Over is 5-2 in Sabathia's last 7 starts on Grass. <LI class=more>Under is 7-3 in Sabathia's last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 9-4 in Sabathia's last 13 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Head to Head:

• <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Sabathia's last 5 starts vs. Tigers. <LI class=more>Over is 5-2 in Sabathia's last 7 home starts vs. Tigers. <LI class=more>Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in Cleveland. <LI class=more>Under is 17-8-2 in the last 27 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Tigers are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.
• Indians are 0-4 in Sabathia's last 4 home starts vs. Tigers.

Nothing available right now on the ump. The reason I lean Detroit here is because I agree with a low scoring game. In those types of games I'd generally prefer the dog. BOL tonight man.

 

[everythingthatsgreen]

Yea I try not to run myself crazy with trends.

Best of Luck tonight again.

I might be around tomorrow/might not, If I am I will be sure to drop by.. As the wkend approaches I go out a lot more, wake up hungover and do a lot less capping. I am a fresh college grad enjoying life at home under his parent's roof taking the summer off.

 

[cnote]

That scares me. Could just be the public hitting the Giants because of their win last night and because of Cain's unreal stats on the road this year. Or maybe they just don't like Hernandez. But I hate seeing a line move that strongly (and quickly) against me.

slim posted the sharps were on the giants today..reason for big move earlier

 

[BigHustla]

like what i see Jibbs!