Is sportsbetting mostly luck or skill?

[Iceman]

I think the best way to answer this is that MOST INDIVIDUAL games and thier outcomes are based on luck but when you look at them as a whole (and that means over 500 bets or more) than the skill of a bettor comes into play.

This is the main reason the I think line shopping is 10X more important than handicapping. I am not sure that most of us are smart enough to CONSISTENTLY beat the consesnus line as we all have the same information at our disposal. The line is basically established by millions of dollars exchanging hands and over time is the most ACCURATE way to gauge what a number on a game should be. Knowing that the consensus number over time is the most accurate number out there this is why I think you should spend way more time shopping for an extra point or so and gettng those few half point wins here or there. It may seem like a waste of time, as 95% of the time the points mean nothing but over time you will see the edge and that is where the SKILL in sportsbetting comes into play. Handicap if you must and focus on hitting 51% of your plays than shop for the best number and win another 4 out of 100 or so that most will push or lose.

When I first came to the RX a few years ago I read this all the time and never applied it. I took it for granted. You have to do this over hundreds of plays to see it work and sometimes you will get frustrated and think it isnt worth it but this is I what I believe that you must do to be a longterm winner and makes sportsbetting a skill.

 

[WVU]

Absolutely mostly luck with a sprinkling of skill. Much like poker

 

[GREENHEAD]

Absolutely mostly luck with a sprinkling of skill. Much like poker

Well its official.Since you've become a mod your IQ has dropped to about 70.How can you make a statement like that is beyond me.

 

[xpanda]

Picking the right side of a game is 50/50, largely. Buying your side at the right price, at the right number, at the right time - with reasonable consistency - is skill.

imo.

 

[WVU]

Well its official.Since you've become a mod your IQ has dropped to about 70.How can you make a statement like that is beyond me.

Ok so you are saying it is the other way around? Mostly skill with a bit of luck? I don't care how good you are at either sportsbetting or poker, luck plays a huge part. You cannot control those 4th quarter turnovers and you cannot control those pocket pairs that flop into sets. Even if only 10% skill it would separate the best from everyone else over time

 

[GREENHEAD]

Ok so you are saying it is the other way around? Mostly skill with a bit of luck? I don't care how good you are at either sportsbetting or poker, luck plays a huge part.

Skill is 90 %.

 

[WVU]

Skill is 90 %.

You are crazy.

 

[steaktartar]

Ok so you are saying it is the other way around? Mostly skill with a bit of luck? I don't care how good you are at either sportsbetting or poker, luck plays a huge part. You cannot control those 4th quarter turnovers and you cannot control those pocket pairs that flop into sets. Even if only 10% skill it would separate the best from everyone else over time

WVU i ve been in this 25 years the same few guys win money every year and the others all fall by the wayside...........are you telling me BW and the likes are lucky every year and everyone else is unlucky? sorry but incorrect statement

 

[Iceman]

I knew this would spark some debate. I think you are all right but the problem is some of you are looking at this for a one game perepective (where luck means almost everything) and others are looking at this from a longterm who wins money perspective (and that is over the longhaul skill means everything).

Both answers are right to me.

No way the opposites are true meaning skill is important for a few games or that luck wins over 500 bets or more.

 

[TomBrady#1]

Put it this way...the ones that win it is because of skill. The very skilled ones win over time and there is no other explananation for that. Skill includes, capping, discipline, money management, and more.

 

[MattRain]

We shouldn't confuse luck with randomness. Sports matches in general are a flip of an uneven coin.

The skill required is to figure out which side of the coin is being offered at an advantageous price, then bet that side optimally by guesstimating your edge and adjusting each bet according to the number of simultaneous events.

The rest is just patience and discipline.

Skillful sportsbetting is incredibly boring.

 

[WVU]

WVU i ve been in this 25 years the same few guys win money every year and the others all fall by the wayside...........are you telling me BW and the likes are lucky every year and everyone else is unlucky? sorry but incorrect statement

No, I am not saying that at all. If it was 90% luck and 10% skill then over a large sample the most skillful will win.

To believe that either sportsbetting or poker is mostly skill is rediculous

 

[coconutman]

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

 

[steaktartar]

No, I am not saying that at all. If it was 90% luck and 10% skill then over a large sample the most skillful will win.

To believe that either sportsbetting or poker is mostly skill is rediculous

luck evens out good and bad.........so luck over the long run would have zero factor.........it is all skill

 

[GoSteelers248]

Skill is 90 %.

Skill is 90%??? are you serious man?? yday, I bet on NY Knicks 1half -4.5..... NY is leading by 6 points and with 1.2 seconds left Minnesota put lay up in.... so you are saying you expect this to happen?? well, this could be 10% of luck went wrong way to me right.... what about last weekend on NFL, my friend bet on 1st quarter under 7.5 (forgot who played this game) and with 0 second left on clock one team put a TD and lose the bet....I could go on and on with these ridiculous lost my friend and I had this past 2 weeks..... so I don't know how skill is 90%...it's more like 10-20% of skill and 80-90% of luck

 

[Fishhead]

No, I am not saying that at all. If it was 90% luck and 10% skill then over a large sample the most skillful will win.

To believe that either sportsbetting or poker is mostly skill is rediculous

EXACTLY correct.............

Very......no, exactly like poker.

However, the small amount that involves skill will enable the professional to thrive year in and year out.

The most SKILLED players in each, poker and sportsbetting, are the ones that end up with the cash.............and with proper money management skills, have an income for life.

 

[Iceman]

Skill is 90%??? are you serious man?? yday, I bet on NY Knicks 1half -4.5..... NY is leading by 6 points and with 1.2 seconds left Minnesota put lay up in.... so you are saying you expect this to happen?? well, this could be 10% of luck went wrong way to me right.... what about last weekend on NFL, my friend bet on 1st quarter under 7.5 (forgot who played this game) and with 0 second left on clock one team put a TD and lose the bet....I could go on and on with these ridiculous lost my friend and I had this past 2 weeks..... so I don't know how skill is 90%...it's more like 10-20% of skill and 80-90% of luck

Once again you are talking about 1 game, no one debates that. The skill is timing the market and betting that NY Knicks bet at -4.

 

[WVU]

luck evens out good and bad.........so luck over the long run would have zero factor.........it is all skill

I disagree. A bad player may benefit from getting lucky when he is in for the flop with crap. A skilled player would not even be in the hand.

 

[steaktartar]

Skill is 90%??? are you serious man?? yday, I bet on NY Knicks 1half -4.5..... NY is leading by 6 points and with 1.2 seconds left Minnesota put lay up in.... so you are saying you expect this to happen?? well, this could be 10% of luck went wrong way to me right.... what about last weekend on NFL, my friend bet on 1st quarter under 7.5 (forgot who played this game) and with 0 second left on clock one team put a TD and lose the bet....I could go on and on with these ridiculous lost my friend and I had this past 2 weeks..... so I don't know how skill is 90%...it's more like 10-20% of skill and 80-90% of luck

how bout the guy that had the other side? luck evens out over the long run.....skill makes a winner

 

[Fishhead]

EXACTLY correct.............

Very......no, exactly like poker.

However, the small amount that involves skill will enable the professional to thrive year in and year out.

The most SKILLED players in each, poker and sportsbetting, are the ones that end up with the cash.............and with proper money management skills, have an income for life.

The majority of my income has come from gambling for the past 15 years..........skill has played a much more significant part in accomplishing this feat, but luck is still involved in 90%+ of the games I wager on or the hands I play in poker/video poker.

Hope this somehow makes sense.