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F me, F U
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Love your input and thoughts Bozzie. Thx. I may have shared I owned BABA once then decided too much China BS affecting so punted. I truly think you’re on right track. I just couldn’t long term stomach Lol

NFL
I am looking at these
Panthers
Saints
Bears
SeaChickens
 

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Sunday 4

Lions+7
Vikings +1.5
saints +2.5
Dallas KC over 55.5



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Welcome to the Sunday edition of Wall Street Breakfast, which previews events for investors to watch during the upcoming week. If you want to receive this a day earlier, follow Stocks to Watch and select the option to receive email notifications.

Outlook
Economic reports in the week ahead

Trading will be lighter next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. without a lot of investor events to track. The two most interesting earnings reports of the week could be from Zoom Video (NASDAQ:ZM) and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY). Both companies are looking to assure investors that they are set up well for the post-pandemic environment. The economic calendar includes updates on existing home sales, durable goods, GDP as well what will a closely-watched release of FOMC minutes from the last central bank meeting. The end of the week sees the beginning of what is anticipated to be a record sales haul for the Black Friday to Cyber Monday shopping period.
Earnings
Earnings spotlight: Monday, November 22: Zoom Video Communications (ZM), Agilent Technologies (NYSE:A), Spire (NYSE:SR), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) and Niu Technologies (NASDAQ:NIU).

Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, November 23: Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI), HP (NYSE:HPQ), Best Buy (BBY), Gap (NYSE:GPS), Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS), Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL), Jack in the Box (NASDAQ:JACK), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) and Vmware (NYSE:VMW).

Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, November 24: Deere (NYSE:DE) and Futu Holdings (NASDAQ:FUTU).

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IPOs
IPO watch: No IPOs are due to start trading next week, but there will still be plenty of action with analysts posting ratings on a large number of companies that went public last month. The analyst quiet period expires on Globalfoundries (NASDAQ:GFS), Fluence Energy (NASDAQ:FLNC), Informatica (NYSE:INFA), Rent the Runway (NASDAQ:RENT), Solo Brands (NYSE:DTC), Arteris (NASDAQ:AIP), Augmedix (NASDAQ:AUGX) and Marpai (NASDAQ:MRAI) on November 22. Analysts will also get to post ratings on HireRight (NYSE:HRT), Udemy (NASDAQ:UDMY), Entrada Therapeutics (NASDAQ:TRDA), Sonendo (NYSE:SONX), AirSculpt Technologies (NASDAQ:AIRS), Aura Biosciences (NASDAQ:AURA), Biofrontera (NASDAQ:BFRI) on November 23.

IPO lockup period expirations: IPO lockup periods expire on Paymentus (PAY) on November 22, as well as Figs (NYSE:FIGS), Singular Genomics Systems (NASDAQ:OMIC) and Day One Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:DAWN) on November 23. Centessa Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:CNTA) and Zivo Bioscience (NASDAQ:ZIVO) see IPO lockup periods end on November 24 and LianBio (NASDAQ:LIAN) has its lockup period expiring on November 26.

Dividends
Projected dividend increases: Companies forecast to boost their quarterly dividend payouts include McCormick (NYSE:MKC) to $0.37 from $0.34, Merck (NYSE:MRK) to $0.70 from $0.65, Hormel (NYSE:HRL) to $0.2575 from $0.245, South Jersey Industries (NYSE:SJI) to $0.315 from $0.3025 and Four Corners Property (NYSE:FCPT) to $0.33 from $0.3175.
Analysis
Zoom Video earnings preview: Zoom Video (ZM) reports earnings as the company looks to convince investors the post-pandemic growth story is strong. Analysts are largely bullish on ZM into the report. Morgan Stanley thinks Zoom shares could rally if the update on small-medium business churn is better than anticipated. Meanwhile, estimates from JPMorgan call for ~31% growth this quarter and even further deceleration to 15% growth in Q1 of 2022 before the company gets past the tough comparisons and re-accelerates through the remainder of the next fiscal year. "We believe it will be the combination of growth out of Zoom phone, international penetration for meetings, and adoption of ancillary capabilities like Zoom Rooms that can drive that growth. In addition, we will be interested to see what type of commentary comes from management around the possibility of monetizing the free base of users and the uptake of solutions like Zoom Events," previews JP. The firm notes that the stock has been trading like the average SaaS company in terms of revenue multiple, but reminds that Zoom is anything but average. Zoom Video has topped sales and EPS estimates in ten straight quarters.

Electric vehicle buzz: Investors are unlikely to give EV stocks a rest next week even with the holiday cutting into trading hours. Some of the biggest gainers over the last week are Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN), Canoo (NASDAQ:GOEV), Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID), Hyzon Motors (NASDAQ:HYZN), Mullen Automotive (NASDAQ:MULN), Proterra (NASDAQ:pTRA), General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR). Looking ahead, expect more speculation on Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) autonomous car plans and which stocks may benefit. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM), Aeva Technologies (NYSE:AEVA), Innoviz Technologies (NASDAQ:INVZ) and Ouster (NYSE:OUST) have been some of the early candidates.

Black Friday/Cyber Monday preview: The Black Friday to Cyber Monday shopping period will have a different look this year with two million more people than last year expected to shop over the three days, despite retailers starting their promotions earlier than ever. The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday sales during November and December will grow between 8.5% and 10.5% to between $843.4B and $859B. A NRF survey indicates that clothing is at the top of the shopping list of consumes, followed by gift cards, toys, books/music/movies/video games and food/candy. Many malls are planning to return to traditional holiday experiences with decorations and experiences, such as pictures with Santa and Christmas present wrapping stations. A couple of interesting Black Friday stories to watch will be the traffic reports from mall players like Macy's (NYSE:M), Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) and Kohl's (NYSE:KSS). In the runup to the big shopping period, Bank of America reports that clothing spending at brick and mortar stores was up 18.6% in comparison to the pre-pandemic level seen in 2019. Analysts are also keying in on the promotional stances from Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:pTON) and Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) with its Mirror product. Meanwhile, Yeti Holdings (NYSE:YETI) is the top pick for the holidays at Bank of America. Finally, early selling trends for Apple (AAPL) will be watched closely. Wedbush Securities estimates that Apple is on pace to sell ~40 million iPhones between Black Friday and Christmas which would be record holiday pace for the company despite the lingering chip shortage limiting supply.

Box office preview: The movie industry is hoping for a big weekend with Sony (NYSE:SONY) releasing supernatural sequel Ghostbusters: Afterlife in more than 4K theaters. The film is forecast to bring $27M to $28M in the U.S. and Canadian over the extended weekend and as much as $45M globally. Warner Bros. (NYSE:T) sports drama King Richard starring Will Smith is projected to bring in $8M to $10M even as it streams simultaneously on HBO Max.


Events
Annual meetings: Notable annual meetings in the week ahead include Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) and StoneCo (NASDAQ:STNE) on November 22. Tilray has been scrutinized in the past for its executive compensation packages that were disclosed around the meetings.
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2-2 on the NFL somehow I've only had one losing weekend..besides the vig.




Top News
Covid curbs

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With surging coronavirus infections across the country, Austria has become the first western European nation to reimpose a national lockdown on its citizens since COVID-19 vaccines became widely available. The unpopular measure will shutter restaurants, bars, theaters, Christmas markets and non-essential shops for 10 days initially, but could be expanded to as many as 20 as intensive care beds run short. The government has also made it compulsory for all citizens to get vaccinated as of Feb. 1. Austria has the lowest vaccination rate in western Europe, with 66% of its population fully vaccinated, though that compares to 59% in the U.S.

Quote: "It is a situation where we have to react now," Health Minister Wolfgang Mueckstein told ORF TV. "A lockdown, a relatively tough method, a sledgehammer, is the only option to reduce the numbers [of infections] here."

Overnight, the euro dropped below $1.13 to a fresh 16-month low as investors bet Europe's economic recovery will lag behind the U.S. Oil also pointed lower, with Brent and U.S. crude hitting seven-week lows of $78.05 and $74.76, respectively, as fresh COVID restrictions prompted demand concerns and protests. Tens of thousands marched through Vienna on Saturday, Dutch police opened fire on protesters in Rotterdam (resulting in seven injured) and demonstrations took hold in Switzerland, Italy, Belgium and Northern Ireland.

Go deeper: The number of reported U.S. COVID-19 deaths for 2021 topped 770,800 on Saturday, according to the CDC, putting the pandemic-long total at more than twice the 385,343 COVID deaths recorded last year. That's despite broad vaccination campaigns and precautionary measures, though many epidemiologists attribute the alarming statistic to the highly contagious Delta variant and the spread of the disease among the unvaccinated. Comparing the two pandemic years is not identical (scarcity of tests, first deaths weren't recorded until February 2020, etc.), though a death toll that doubled over the last year is still catching infectious-diseases doctors by surprise. (39 comments)

Cryptocurrency
'Bitcoin City'
El Salvador is doubling down on its bet on Bitcoin (BTC-USD), detailing plans to build a modern Alexandria called "Bitcoin City." The metropolis would be circular, with an airport, residential and commercial areas, and feature a central plaza designed to look like a Bitcoin symbol from the air. Geothermal energy would be provided from the Conchagua volcano in southeastern El Salvador, while the city would not levy any taxes (property, income or capital gains) except for VAT.

Flashback: In June, El Salvador passed a law making it the first country in the world to accept Bitcoin as legal tender, while the plan took effect in September with the launch of the Chivo Wallet (a government-sponsored digital wallet designed to facilitate transactions). Despite the hype, dollars remain by far the main medium of exchange, as well as the currency coming into the country. In September and October, Salvadoreans abroad sent only $32M in remittances back home using the Chivo Wallet, representing about 2.5% of the total remittances.

"This is going to make El Salvador the financial center of the world," President Nayib Bukele declared. "Invest here and make all the money you want... This is a fully ecological city that works and is energized by a volcano."

Construction of "Bitcoin City" will begin in 2022 and will be funded initially by sovereign bonds backed by the cryptocurrency. The first 10-year issue would be worth $1B, and carry a coupon of 6.5%, with half of the sum going to buy Bitcoin on the market and the other half used for infrastructure and Bitcoin mining. After a five-year lock-up, El Salvador would start selling some of the Bitcoin used to fund the bond to give investors an "additional coupon," and other bonds would follow.

Volatility watch: Bitcoin has slipped about 16% from its record high of $68,990 which it reached earlier this month, but it is still up more than 90% this year. (30 comments)

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Stocks
Holiday-shortened week
Turkey prices are going up ahead of Thanksgiving, but what about the stock market? Despite inflation figures coming in hot, equities continue to notch fresh record highs, with investors offering their thanks before taking some time off this Thursday. Financial markets will close Nov. 25 for the holiday, while the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will be open on Friday until 1 p.m.

If history is any guide: "The entire week of Thanksgiving has averaged a 60 basis point, or 0.60 percentage point, advance for the S&P 500, with the best returns coming on Wednesday and Black Friday, and the only decline on average on Monday," said Bespoke Investment Group, citing data that goes back to 1945. Lately, the gains have swung to Mondays in Thanksgiving week, with small declines on Tuesday and rallies on the last two days of the session.

The week is also typically characterized by some of the lowest trading volumes of the year. That could change this time around, with President Biden expected to announce his pick for Fed Chair in the coming days. "If [Lael] Brainard is nominated, it wouldn't be a surprise to me to see some near-term volatility," noted said Jeff Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments. "Usually, the market tests a Fed chair."

At the register: Average turkey prices cost 24% more than last year, according to the Farm Bureau, coming in at $23.99 for a 16-pound turkey. That's not all. Cranberries are up 11%, dinner rolls cost 15% more, pie crusts are 20% higher, while russet potatoes and sweet potatoes are up 16% and 4%, respectively.

Financials
Transaction fees
Visa (V) expects to resolve its differences with Amazon.com (AMZN) in the U.K. and hopes that the e-commerce giant keeps the payment network on as partner for its co-branded credit card. "We've resolved these things in the past, and I believe we'll resolve them in the future," CFO Vasant Prabhu announced in an interview. Amazon recently told its British customers it was acting because of Visa’s high fees, though Mastercard (MA) and Visa set nearly identical transactions fees in the U.K., according to payments firm Bambora.

Backdrop: Shares of Visa slid last Wednesday after Amazon said it would stop accepting UK-issued Visa credit cards for purchases made in Amazon.co.uk. It also offered affected customers £20 off their next purchase using an alternative payment method, which followed a report that Amazon was considering switching its co-branded credit card deal to Mastercard. Earlier this year, the retail giant moved to limit Visa's use in markets like Singapore, where a 0.5% transaction surcharge was added, as well as Australia.

The whole spat is putting a spotlight on credit card transaction fees, and could provide an opening for other payment options, especially upcoming fintech players. Account-to-account payments and 'buy now, pay later' option have been growing in popularity - compared to the payment rails and traditional systems of Visa and Mastercard - and Amazon has been experimenting in the space, offering BNPL options to U.S. shoppers through third-party provider Affirm (AFRM).

Commentary: "This should not be considered a shock, as Amazon has been using every negotiating tactic available to bring down the cost of processing payments," said Kenneth Suchoski, equity research analyst at Autonomous Research, adding that the move would have little impact on Visa's bottom line. (33 comments)


Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.1%. Hong Kong -0.4%. China +0.6%. India -2%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +0.2% at $76.09. Gold -0.6% at $1840.50. Bitcoin -2.7% at $57250.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +5 bps to 1.58%
Today's Economic Calendar
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:00 Existing Home Sales
11:30 Results of $58B, 2-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Results of $59B, 5-Year Note Auction

Companies reporting earnings today »
 

F me, F U
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Thx Bozzie...juicing not a bad thing...better than losing outright ;)

Why is Japan and India having near zero confirmed cases?? Austria SPIKED...

Jerome Powell tabbed again...Market likes.
 

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Top News
Powell stays on

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Correction: Yesterday's WSB wrote that 2021 U.S. COVID deaths doubled over the previous year, though the figure surpassed 2020 fatalities last weekend (not doubled). The article has been updated accordingly.

Treasuries yields and the dollar spiked, gold sold off and stocks rose and fell towards the end of the session on Monday after Jerome Powell was nominated for another four-year term at the Federal Reserve. The central bank is now expected to maintain its current course on tapering economic support as it grapples with rising inflation and lingering economic impacts of the pandemic. Less dovish or hawkish monetary policies typically coincide with higher interest rates as the cost of borrowing increases due to a tightness in financial conditions.

2 for 1 deal: In another big announcement, Fed Governor Lael Brainard was elevated to vice chair, the bank's No. 2 role. There had been much speculation that she could have even taken the top job in recent weeks, with Brainard meeting with President Biden and progressive lawmakers calling for her appointment. By nominating both, the administration is able to rely on a steady hand at the Fed, while also addressing the need for taking regulatory concerns more seriously. Brainard is seen as the Democratic party's most accomplished economic policymaker, spearheading campaigns on big bank oversight and finding a path to address climate change through the Fed's financial stability mission.

In terms of future policy, many have pointed to Powell's success in navigating the U.S. economy through COVID-19 and one of the worst contractions since the Great Depression. That doesn't mean he's without criticism, though he has largely been able to overshadow his detractors and opponents. We're starting to see a slight pivot from "inflation is transitory" and moves to policy normalization would "begin in a slow fashion," giving a greater sense of urgency and command of the economic backdrop.

Next steps: The nominations of Powell and Brainard must be formally submitted to the Senate, which will refer them to the Senate Banking Committee. Confirmation hearings will then be scheduled, and the 100-member Senate will vote on their appointments, with both expected to be approved despite some partisan disagreements. "Our base case is that they will be cleared by the full Senate this year," said BTIG analyst Isaac Boltansky. Biden also has three vacancies to fill at the Fed's seven-member Board of Governors, including the vice chair for supervision role recently vacated by Randal Quarles.


Economy
Lowering prices
As the Biden administration faces mounting frustration over inflation, the president will "deliver remarks on the economy and lowering prices for the American people" at 2 p.m. ET. That's according to a statement from the White House, which gave no other details on the expected content. Later today, Biden will travel to Nantucket, Massachusetts, where he and first lady Jill Biden will celebrate Thanksgiving.

Bigger picture: Inflation has emerged as a big threat for Biden amid supply chain bottlenecks and other factors that still have to be brought under control. Take gasoline prices for example, which are at seven-year highs. While the White House has blamed OPEC+ for the surge, it's evaluating all tools to quell rising prices after the cartel snubbed its request to pump more. Biden may announce a release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve today, which would come in conjunction with India, Japan and South Korea.

"I think we do have to be concerned about inflation. It's reached the levels that concern most Americans who are seeing it and their pocketbook when they go to the store to buy food or to fill up their cars," said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who chaired the Fed from 2014 to 2018. "Over the longer run, the Fed needs to play an important role to make sure that [inflation] doesn't become endemic. And I know they can be counted on to do that."

Other threats: Surging coronavirus cases in Europe has also seen countries reimpose lockdowns this week, but the U.S. is not thinking about those tools to put a damper on infections. "We are not headed in that direction. We have the tools to accelerate the path out of this pandemic; widely available vaccinations, booster shots, kid shots, therapeutics," White House COVID-19 response coordinator Jeff Zients told reporters. "We can curb the spread of the virus without having to in any way shut down our economy."

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Consumer
Riding high
Uber Canada (UBER) customers in Ontario will soon be able to order cannabis online through the Uber Eats app in a first-of-its-kind partnership with dispensary Tokyo Smoke (CGC). Orders will be fulfilled within an hour of order placement, marking the ride-hailing giant's foray into the booming business. Canada legalized marijuana for adult use in 2018, with financial institutions and payment processors legally allowed to accept marijuana transactions.

Note: For now, Uber won't be delivering the cannabis products. Users will have to pick up the orders at one of Tokyo Smoke's 56 locations in Ontario (the Uber app will verify a person's age, while staff will check ID when a customer arrives).

Uber has also been thinking about how it will enter the U.S. cannabis industry, which is forecast to hit $29B in annual sales by the end of this year. Back in April, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi commented on those plans, announcing that the company was waiting for government legalization to enter the American market. "When the road is clear for cannabis, when federal laws come into play, we're absolutely going to take a look at it," he said during an interview with CNBC.

Go deeper: Canada's illegal weed market still takes in more than 40% of all non-medical marijuana sales, meaning there's plenty of room for growth for law-abiding corporations.


On The Move
Lira low
Emerging markets are on watch after the Turkish lira suffered one of its worst days since a currency crisis in August 2018. The freefall was prompted by comments from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who praised a third consecutive monthly interest rate cut and asserted that his country was fighting an "economic war of independence." Erdogan believes in an unorthodox approach that higher rates cause inflation, rather than prevent it, but despite the beliefs the annual figure reached nearly 20% in October.

By the numbers: The lira plunged as much as 8.8% and broke through the symbolic threshold of 12 to the dollar, hitting an all-time low of 12.50. The currency is down almost 40% against the greenback this year and has fallen for the last 10 days in a row.

Over the last two years, Erdogan has fired three central bank chiefs due to disagreements over monetary policy. In his latest speech, he contended that Turkey would not give in to "opportunists" and "global financial acrobats" that are calling for rate hikes. Instead, his government is prioritizing growth to boost investment, production, exports and employment. "That's why we pay no attention to the clamor of the doomsayers," he declared.

Commentary: "It's a dangerous game the Turks are playing," noted Uday Patnaik, head of emerging-market debt at Legal & General Investment Management. "As people lose faith in the value of the currency, you could see a potential run on the banks. This would be hugely problematic, we haven't seen that yet as far as I know." Turkey has already spent billions of dollars to support the lira, and interventions could return again if investors continue to pull funds from developing markets.

Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -1.2%. China +0.2%. India +0.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -1.2% at $75.83. Gold -0.7% at $1794.10. Bitcoin -2% at $56112.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.65%
Today's Economic Calendar
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:45 PMI Composite Flash
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
11:30 Results of $24B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $59B, 7-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply

Companies reporting earnings today »
What else is happening...
Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) sees revenue growing at slower rate in months ahead.

Payment stocks slump amid COVID worries, regulatory outlook.

Authentic Brands (AUTH) abandons IPO, sells $12.7B stake to private investors.

AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon (NYSE:VZ) gain in wake of big telecom merger deals.

Health tech boom... H&F and Bain Capital to acquire athenahealth for $17B.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Model S Plaid set to hit China around March.

American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) push for antitrust suit to get tossed.
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Thx for posting B! Always good stuff...

ThxGiv: Looking at these: Lions, Boys, Bills...


I'm playing too but haven't really looked..It's a bit of a drive to my local...
I'll have another MH later I think.

Happy early Thanksgiving man
 

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Any news on ADVL? It's been dropping the last few sessions.

I'm about ready to give up on BABA, but I'd take a pretty big loss (for me). smh
 

F me, F U
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Any news on ADVL? It's been dropping the last few sessions.

I'm about ready to give up on BABA, but I'd take a pretty big loss (for me). smh
I think BABA still goes down for some time...bottom not quite yet...if anyone looking, I'd wait. China is still hammering them...yesterday. I'd say closer to $100 it's a BUY...could always sell and use loses to offset +++
 

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Any news on ADVL? It's been dropping the last few sessions.

I'm about ready to give up on BABA, but I'd take a pretty big loss (for me). smh

I'm long and see this as temporary ...My guys at Morgan Stanley love it.

sorry man..
 

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Top News
Strategic Petroleum Reaction

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Happy Thanksgiving! Many thanks to all of our Wall Street Breakfast readership as we go into the holiday season. WSB won't be published with markets closed tomorrow, but tune back in Friday.

WTI crude rose more than 4% over the last 24 hours to retake $79/bbl after the Biden administration announced plans to release 50M barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Reserve, along with China, Japan, India, South Korea and the U.K. While the move was meant to lower prices, the volumes announced were much less than the market was expecting and would need to be sustained over a longer period of time. Many of the barrels will also need to be returned by the refiners who buy them, leaving traders forecasting tighter balances.

Quote: "I told you before that we're going to take action on these problems. That's exactly what we're doing," President Biden said from the White House. "It will take time, but, before long, you should see the price of gas drop where you fill up your tank, and in the longer term, we will reduce our reliance on oil as we shift to clean energy."

Meanwhile, a large portion of the barrels is set to be exported to China and India. That's because the supplies will comprise of sour crude, a type of oil that many American refiners are avoiding due to its high sulfur content, which makes it more expensive to process. Foreign buyers are also attracted to the oil since it's cheaper than the global Brent benchmark.

Go deeper: Following the decision, some are even referring to the U.S. emergency stockpile as the Strategic Political Reserve, with the president under pressure to tamp down inflation. OPEC+ is also scheduled to meet in a few weeks and could unveil a counterpunch if the group feels threatened. The cartel would need to give up two months of output increases to offset the 50M barrel release, after snubbing several requests from Washington to pump more oil. The U.S. national average price for a gallon of gas was $3.40 on Tuesday, according to AAA, more than a $1 increase from a year ago.

Economy
Thanksgiving spending
Holiday shopping trends are on track to make a comeback this year, with 158.3M people (nearly 2M more people than last year) expected to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. That's according to the latest report from the National Retail Federation, which estimates consumers will shell out an average $997.73 on holiday sales during November and December. At those levels, it would mean a growth rate of between 8.5% and 10.5% over 2020 to a total of $843.4B-$859B, setting records for both the expansion and total amount spent.

By the numbers: 75% of American adults will conduct their e-commerce through big retailers like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) or Walmart (NYSE:WMT), which will be similar to or increase relative to the 2020 holiday season. However, some still prefer brick-and-mortar for the holidays. Among those shopping on Thanksgiving Day, 65% are likely to do so in stores, up from 50% last year, when COVID-19 concerns kept many people at home. On Black Friday, 64% are likely to shop in stores, up from 51% last year.

"Pandemic-related supply chain disruptions have caused shortages of merchandise and most of this year's inflationary pressure," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz declared. "With the prospect of consumers seeking to shop early, inventories may be pulled down sooner and shortages may develop in the later weeks of the shopping season. However, if retailers can keep merchandise on the shelves and merchandise arrives before Christmas, it could be a stellar holiday sales season."

Shopping carts: Apparel continued to top the NRF list, expected to be scooped up by 53% of shoppers, followed by gift cards at 46%, toys at 39%, books/music/movies/video games at 35% and food/candy at 31% as the top five categories.

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Consumer
'Everything's $1.25'
After 35 years of selling merchandise for a buck, Dollar Tree (DLTR) is raising its standard price point to $1.25. The change will take place by the end of April and follows hot inflation numbers over the last six months. Despite acknowledging those market conditions, Dollar Tree said its move was "not a reaction to short-term or transitory market conditions," but would rather help mitigate historically high costs like freight, distribution and wage increases.

Bigger picture: Following a test on 200 stores conducted in September, a survey showed that 77% of shoppers were almost immediately aware of the price increase, but 91% suggested they would still continue shopping at Dollar Tree with the same frequency. Dollar Tree also related that its new strategy will allow stores to carry a wider array of merchandise that couldn't be sold for $1. The chain is separately instituting $3 and $5 pricing levels, though the move won't come along with a name change.

"We think the company's decision to operate at a single $1.25 price point across all stores and most SKU's is a subtle, yet critical distinction, that significantly augments the odds of success in 2022 (and beyond), in our view," said Gordon Haskett analyst Chuck Grom. "Moreover, the higher price point will allow for the Tree to drive an improved assortment (via new items + lapsed products) over time that should translate into improved traffic trends, which have been under duress for a couple of years now."

Market movement: Investors cheered the raised prices, sending DLTR shares up 9.2% on Tuesday, as the move will allow the company to defend its margins against inflation pressures. Earnings for the third quarter also showed that net sales grew 3.9% Y/Y in the three months that ended in October.


Earnings
Sounding the alarm
The retail news flow did not stop coming yesterday as a flurry of earnings dominated the headlines. Shares of Gap (GPS) slumped 20% in AH trading after slashing its outlook as COVID-related factory closures led to significant product delays, while Nordstrom (JWN) collapsed 27% as labor costs cut into profits and sales. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) was also among the biggest losers in the sector, with mall retailers feeling investors' wrath amid worries about margins and slowing growth.

Snapshot: Another interesting story that made waves was a remark from Best Buy (BBY) CEO Corie Barry on a post-earnings interview. She told CNBC that the rise of organized crime is a "horrible change" for the "trajectory of the business" and the electronics retailer is "working hard to try to stem" loosely organized bands of thieves who have targeted the firm's locations. Barry also noted that Best Buy was among many retailers who have faced a spike in these attacks and has put measures in place to prevent the thefts, such as locking up certain products and working with local law enforcement.

Shares of BBY also tumbled 12% following the gross margin decline, but the stock is up 17% in the six weeks before earnings, so it now stands where it traded in the middle part of October.

Outlook: Kroger previously highlighted organized crime as a reason for its reduced margins when it reported quarterly results back in September. Over in San Francisco, Louis Vuitton (OTCPK:LVMHF), Burberry (OTCPK:BBRYF) and Hermes (OTCPK:HESAF) stores were ransacked last weekend, while a raid on a Nordstrom in nearby Walnut Creek was even more brazen. Just before closing time, some 80 people jumped out of a group of cars and assaulted two employees before escaping with hands full of merchandise.

Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong +0.1%. China +0.1%. India -0.6%.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude +1% at $79.11. Gold +0.3% at $1788.80. Bitcoin +1% at $56698.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 1.65%
Today's Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 GDP Q3
8:30 International Trade in Goods (Advance)
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Corporate profits
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
12:00 PM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes

Companies reporting earnings today »

What else is happening...
Walgreens (NASDAQ:WBA), CVS (NYSE:CVS), Walmart (NYSE:WMT) held liable in opioid trial.

Palantir (NYSE:pLTR) CEO: California will benefit from people leaving.

Will a month-long strike weigh on Deere's (NYSE:DE) earnings?

Texas wins contest for Samsung's (OTC:SSNLF) new $17B chip plant.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) sues NSO Group, saying U.S. citizens were targeted.

China pressures Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) to crack down on cloud fraud.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) likely to last longer than China's Communist Party - Dimon.

Allbirds (NASDAQ:BIRD) descends for third session, shoe brand still up 26% from IPO.

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) plans to use helicopter to catch rocket booster.
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Top News
Friday turns black

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Today's shortened trading day was supposed to be a calm one, given the typically low trading volumes seen on Black Friday, but fears of a new COVID-19 variant found in South Africa is shaking up sentiment. Dow futures plunged more than 800 points overnight, while contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.8% and 1.2%, respectively, after stocks sold off in Europe and Asia. WTI crude oil futures (CL1:COM) also tumbled nearly 7% to under $73 as the U.K. imposed fresh travel restrictions, though Zoom Video (ZM) and Peloton (PTON) took off as the news revived the stay-at-home-trade.

New variant: Believed to have first emerged in Botswana, B.1.1.529 will be called as such until a Greek letter is assigned to it by the World Health Organization. The variant carries an unusually large number of mutations associated with increased antibody resistance and is "clearly very different" from previous incarnations. South African scientists have already detected 30 mutations to the spike protein, which play a big role in how the virus enters the body.

The biggest concern is whether the virus could lead to more serious illness or decrease the effectiveness of vaccines and treatments. While we don't yet know whether it's more infectious or deadly than other variants, it's spreading across the globe. B.1.1.529 has been found in travelers arriving in Hong Kong, just as COVID cases surge around the world heading into the holiday season.

Go deeper: The World Health Organization has scheduled a special meeting for today to discuss whether to declare the new strain a "variant of concern." "For the moment it is understood that the number of cases is small, but due to the thin liquidity levels in Asia trading as a consequence of the U.S. holiday the reaction does appear to be outsized," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. Other variants of concern include Delta, which is now dominant worldwide, as well as Alpha, which triggered a deadly wave of infections across Europe and the U.S. last winter and spring. (81 comments)

New Technology
Robotaxi revolution
Baidu's (NASDAQ:BIDU) robotaxi business, called Apollo, can now begin charging fees for passengers taking one of its 67 self-driving cars in Beijing. It's the first time a large city in China has allowed companies to charge the public for robotaxi rides, and sets the stage for other cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou to do the same. So far, Baidu can only offer public trips when a safety driver is accompanying passengers, but the company expects that to change in the next year or two.

Bigger picture: While Baidu didn't reveal exact pricing of the new service, it said fares would be similar to other premium ride-hailing apps like DiDi (NYSE:DIDI) - which can cost twice as much as ordinary rides. The new autonomous regulatory permit also covers an area of 60 square kilometers, including a town called Yizhuang that features businesses like JD.com's (JD) headquarters. On Nov. 16, Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) autonomous driving company AutoX claimed its fully driverless robotaxis now operate in the largest single region in China - 168 square kilometers located in Shenzhen's Pingshan District.

Over in the U.S., Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) Waymo has been testing self-driving taxis primarily in California and Arizona. Waymo can currently charge the public for fares in a part of Phoenix, while its driverless vehicles don't need a safety driver. General Motors (NYSE:GM) self-driving unit Cruise also said earlier this month that it applied for final approval to become the first robotaxi operator to commercialize fully autonomous rides in San Francisco.

Apollo goes global? "We have partnered with many transportation companies in China and are trying to partner with similar companies in other places," said Wei Dong, VP of Baidu's intelligent driving group. "If there is such demand for autonomous driving in other markets, Baidu is willing to cooperate with overseas partners, whether it is an operating company, an automaker or another transportation company. We can export our technologies and experience, and jointly operate in certain areas on the basis of complying with local laws and regulations... Baidu is willing to open up for the international market." (51 comments)

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Trending
Busy holiday travel
The number of air travelers this week is expected to reach or even exceed pre-pandemic levels, according to AAA. That could be a boon for airlines like American (NASDAQ:AAL), Southwest (NYSE:LUV), Delta (NYSE:DAL), United (NASDAQ:UAL) and JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU), as long as they could avoid a repeat of massive flight cancellations. In recent months, staffing shortages, scheduling mismanagement and bad weather have all led to trouble for the biggest U.S. carriers.

Statistics: Over 2.3M people passed through U.S. airports on Wednesday, marking the most hectic day for air travel since February 2020. In terms of disruptions, less than 0.5% of U.S. domestic flights were canceled Monday through Wednesday, according to FlightAware, and only around 60 flights were scrapped as of Thursday afternoon. Sunday is expected to be even busier, and will prove to be the industry's next challenge.

"The airlines are prepared for the holidays," noted Helane Becker, an airlines analyst at Cowen. "They cut back the number of flights, the industry has enough pilots, they are putting more flight attendants through their [training] academies, and they are paying flight attendants a premium - what I'm going to call hazardous-duty pay - to encourage people not to blow off work."

Going by car: AAA sees a total of 48.3M people traveling at least 50 miles from home over the holiday period - an increase of nearly 4M over last year - despite higher prices at the pump. The nationwide average for gasoline on Tuesday was $3.40 a gallon, according to AAA, up more than 60% from last Thanksgiving. President Biden has meanwhile ordered 50M barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help bring down energy costs, though that decision may spark a backlash from OPEC+. (9 comments)
 

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part 2


Consumer
Retail in focus
Today marks the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season as investors size up Black Friday to determine the current mood of the U.S. consumer. While fears of a new COVID variant are overshadowing the shopping bonanza, many consumers will still be looking around for bargains. A variety of reports have boosted and hampered the retail sector in recent weeks, making it hard to size up an industry heavily exposed to supply chain disruptions.

Flashback: Shares of Gap (GPS) and Nordstrom (JWN) slumped 20% in AH trading on Wednesday after slashing their outlooks on COVID-related factory closures and labor costs that cut into profits. On the other hand, Kohl's (KSS) jumped more than 10% from a week ago - after reporting strong sales growth - while retail executives spoke extensively on how they were managing supply chain issues and inflation. Personal incomes and consumer spending for October also came in higher than expected, though core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, remained elevated at 4.1%.

Holiday shopping trends are on track to make a comeback this year, with 158.3M people (nearly 2M more people than last year) expected to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. That's according to the latest report from the National Retail Federation, which estimates consumers will shell out an average $997.73 on holiday sales during November and December. However, supply issues may have brought forward many holiday purchases, potentially denting Q4 sales. "I would not be surprised if that was a dynamic around the holiday season," said Sarah Henry, a portfolio manager at Logan Capital Management.

Black Friday schedule: The stock market will shut early at 1 p.m. today, bond markets will close an hour later, and metals and U.S. crude oil will settle at 12:30 p.m. and 1:30 p.m., respectively. Some history... Back in 1992, the major U.S. exchange operators called for a 2 p.m. Eastern close for the Friday after Thanksgiving, two hours earlier than the regular close at 4 p.m. The following year, the NYSE and Nasdaq chose to shutter markets at 1 p.m., a schedule that is currently observed.

Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -2.5%. Hong Kong -2.7%. China -0.6%. India -2.9%.
In Europe, at midday, London -2.7%. Paris -3.3%. Frankfurt -2.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -2.3%. S&P -1.7%. Nasdaq -1.2%. Crude -6.9% at $72.98. Gold +1.5% at $1810.20. Bitcoin -5.9% at $54586.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 1.51%
Today's Economic Calendar
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
NYSE Early Close 1:00 PM ET
SIFMA Early Close 2:00 PM ET

Companies reporting earnings today »

What else is happening...
China wants DiDi (NYSE:DIDI) to delist from U.S. on security fears - Bloomberg.

Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone supply seen improving with Black Friday on deck.

OPEC panel says U.S. crude release will swell surplus in 2022.

Goldman pinpoints rising and falling stars held by hedge funds.

NYT's (NYSE:NYT) Wirecutter staff walk off the job before Black Friday.

Disney (NYSE:DIS) annual report presages monster content spending for coming year.

Warburg Pincus cuts the valuation of Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) affiliate Ant Group.

Deere (NYSE:DE) forecasts strong growth after Q1 marred by strike impacts.

Micron (MU) and UMC (UMC) reach settlement deal; withdraw complaints.
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Haven't been around so much lately..bought a two motorcycles for trail riding around here.
NFL 4

Taxans -2.5
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Eagles -4
Rams-2

Outlook
Economic reports in the week ahead

Investors will come back from the weekend looking to determine if the market sell-off tied to a new COVID variant is overdone or if the pandemic recovery timeline is being pushed back. The selling pressure was not limited to travel and leisure stocks, as a risk-off trade swept over the tech sector, electric vehicle names and cryptocurrencies as well. It will be a busy week with a key OPEC meeting on the calendar and the November jobs report due out on Friday.
Earnings
Earnings spotlight: Monday, November 29: Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) and Navigator Holdings (NGVS).

Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, November 30: Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM), Globalfoundries (NASDAQ:GFS), Box (NYSE:BOX), Hewlett Packard Enterprises (NYSE:HPE) and NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP).

Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, December 1: Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY), Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW), Crowdstrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) and Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS).

Earnings spotlight: Thursday, December 2: Marvell Technologies (NASDAQ:MRVL), Dollar General (NYSE:DG) and Kroger (NYSE:KR).

Earnings spotlight: Friday, December 3: Big Lots (BIHG) and Hibbett Sports (NASDAQ:HIBB).

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IPOs
IPO watch: Nuvectis Pharma (NVCT) is expected to price its IPO next week and begin trading, It is a busy week of analyst quiet period expirations. Analysts can begin posting ratings on Evotec SE (NASDAQ:EVO), Allbirds (NASDAQ:BIRD) , Arhaus (NASDAQ:ARHS), NerdWallet (NASDAQ:NRDS), Claros Mortgage Trust (NYSE:CMTG) , Cadre Holdings (NYSE:CDRE) , MDxHealth SA (NASDAQ:MDXH) and Blue Star Foods (NASDAQ:BSFC) on November 29. Analysts will start buzzing on Cian (CIAN), IO Biotech (NASDAQ:IOBT), Real Good Food (NASDAQ:RGF), Biorestorative Therapies (NASDAQ:BRTX) and Mainz Biomed (NASDAQ:MYNZ) on November 30.

IPO lockup period expirations: The IPO lockup period expires on Dlocal (NASDAQ:DLO), which is up more than 50% from its IPO pricing level.

Dividends
Projected dividend increases: Companies forecast to raise their quarterly dividend payout by a significant amount include Raymond James (NYSE:RJF) to $0.35 from $0.26, Fortune Brands (NYSE:FBHS) to $0.32 from $0.26, Ethan Allen (NYSE:ETD) to $0.29 from $0.25, Stryker (NYSE:SYK) to $0.69 from $0.63, McCormick (NYSE:MKC) to $0.37 from $0.34, Eastman Chemical (NYSE:EMN) to $0.75 from $0.69, Toro (NYSE:TTC) to $0.285 from $0.2625, Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) to $0.28 from $0.26 and Merck (NYSE:MRK) to $0.70 from $0.65.
Energy
OPEC meeting preview: The OPEC+ meeting next week is attracting more attention than normal. Traders are watching to see if the group will stick with the plan to proceed with output increases next week, even as Saudi Arabia and other producers push back against the release of strategic reserves by the U.S. and other nations in an effort to push down energy prices. Ahead of the meeting, crude oil benchmarks (CL1:COM) plunged more than 10% on Friday after a newly discovered coronavirus strain sparked fears over the global economic recovery and the potential effects on travel and oil demand.

Events
Corporate events: Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) four-day AWS re:Invent event will be watched closely in the tech sector with new AWS products and services to be featured. A number of other companies have seen share price moves after showing off their products, services or platforms at AMZN's annual learnings conference, including Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG) and NetApp (NTAP). On November 30, BioMarin Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:BMRN) holds its Virtual R&D Day, Novartis (NYSE:NVS) holds a five-hour R&D day with detailed updates on the company's pipeline, and Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) conducts a guidance webcast. Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF) also hosts its annual investor update.
Analysis
Sales updates: Online retail will be watched closely next week as early reports arrive on Black Friday to Cyber Monday sales. Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), Wayfair (NYSE:W) and Yeti Holdings (NYSE:YETI) are some of the stocks that are being set apart by analysts as potential winners. In the tech sector, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is reported to have had a big weekend with Wedbush Securities forecasting sales of more than 10 million iPhones for the Black Friday weekend. "Despite the chip shortage and Rubik's Cube logistics that Apple (and every other technology, auto, and retail vendor) is dealing with we are seeing tremendous demand trends both in the US and China for iPhone 13 which is a positive sign that Apple could exceed selling 80 million iPhone units in the quarter with stronger Pro versions driving higher ASPs," updates analyst Dan Ives.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise earnings preview: The last few analysts to weigh in on Hewlett Packard Enterprises' (HPE) earnings report have forecast a largely in-line report, but have pointed to plenty of wildcards that could impact sentiment. Most of the focus will be on the demand outlook for 2022. "Given a solid IT spend environment (networking, server & storage) with networking peer CSCO reporting robust order growth +33% in Oct-qtr (vs. 31% in July), our sense is that the demand environment for HPE will continue to be strong," notes Evercore ISI. Also working in its favor, HPE is noted to have wrapped up an ERP initiative (implementing a single ERP system company-wide and demanding better/timely supplier data) which is expected to help alleviate supply pain points going forward. On the server side, the outlook and general demand environment is also said to continue to look solid.

Outlook
Annual meetings: Microsoft is (NASDAQ:MSFT) holds its annual meeting with advisory groups asking shareholders to back a proposal at its forthcoming annual meeting that would force the tech giant to be more transparent about its sexual harassment policies following allegations of misconduct by co-founder Bill Gates. The meeting is also expected to include more discussion over Microsoft's plans to be a major metaverse player.
Stocks
Barron's mentions: IBM (NYSE:IBM) is called one of the biggest bargains in the tech sector in a glowing cover story profile. IBM is noted to have begun laying the groundwork for its recovery in 2020 when it picked cloud expert Arvind Krishna to replace Ginni Rometty. The publication says if IBM proves that it can return to growth, the stock could see a gain of 50% or more in the years to come. Gentherm (NASDAQ:THRM) is called a cheap way to play the electric vehicle boom. The company’s new ClimateSense product - which uses thermoelectric devices, sensors, and software embedded in seats, footwells, armrests, and the steering wheel - is seen as advantageous to EVs by taking the load off heating, ventilation and air-conditioning. The biggest market question of the weekend is if the Black Friday sell-off was a low-volume overreaction to news of the COVID-19 variant. "Quite simply, nobody yet knows what the economic impact might be," concludes Barron's on the new market wildcard.

Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Renaissance Capital

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Top News
The Omicron edition

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The newly discovered Omicron coronavirus variant has the world on edge, with a lot of questions surrounding its infectiousness, ability to cause serious disease and to what degree it's able to evade the immune response from prior infection or vaccination. The strain first identified in South Africa was dubbed a "variant of concern" last week by the World Health Organization, sparking fresh worries it could prolong the nearly two-year COVID-19 pandemic. While no cases of this variant have yet been identified in the U.S., the CDC is "continuously monitoring" the situation and many say it is only a matter of time.

Snapshot: The Omicron variant has about 50 mutations, more than 30 of these are on the spike protein that allows the virus to bind to human cells. The receptor-binding domain (i.e. the part of the virus that first makes contact with our cells) also has 10 mutations, which is far greater than just two for the rapidly spreading Delta variant. The high level of mutation means that Omicron likely came from a single patient who could not clear the virus, giving it the chance to genetically evolve (a similar hypothesis was proposed for the Alpha strain).

Meanwhile, the first South African physician to raise the alarm over Omicron has called its symptoms unusual but mild. For example, none of her patients experienced a loss of taste or smell, considered as hallmarks of the disease, but rather showed up with body aches and "feeling so tired," according to Dr. Angelique Coetzee. Other South African scientists and health officials have also said there were no signs so far that Omicron led to more serious illness.

Go deeper: Americans need to be prepared to do "anything and everything" to fight the Omicron variant, White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday, adding that it's still "too early to say" whether lockdowns or new mandates will be appropriate. More definitive information would become available in about two weeks, though it is important to take note that other "variants of concern" - like South Africa's Beta and Brazil's Gamma - did not take off around the world as initially feared. "There are lots of unknowns," added Sharon Peacock, director of the COVID-19 Genomics U.K. Consortium. "It's so important to stress how much we don't know at the moment about this new variant."

Trending
Travel restrictions
Even before Omicron, many European countries began reimposing pandemic restrictions in response to rising coronavirus cases. Austria shut down, Germany flirted with another national lockdown, while Belgium announced it would close nightclubs and prohibit private parties except for weddings and funerals. The focus is now turning to travel restrictions as countries seek to slow the spread of the Omicron variant, which has so far been detected in Australia, Belgium, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands and Scotland.

What's happening: In the most far-reaching effort, Japan joined Israel in banning the entry of all foreigners. Meanwhile, Morocco said it would suspend all incoming flights for two weeks starting Monday, Australia reversed its border reopening plans, while the Philippines ditched an idea to let in vaccinated tourists. Over in the U.S., travel will be restricted for non-U.S. citizens from South Africa and seven other countries starting today, though there is no indication of how long the ban will remain in place.

"I've decided we're going to be cautious," President Biden told reporters. "We don't know a lot about the variant except it is a great concern, seems to spread rapidly."

Outlook: The new restrictions come just as airlines and jet manufacturers like Boeing expressed optimism about a resurgence in demand. While flights between the U.S. and South Africa are limited compared with other global destinations, sudden changes in travel rules could further delay the return of lucrative international business travel. Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) and United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL), the two airlines that fly direct to Johannesburg, said they are not adjusting their schedules, but it remains to be seen how many of the 122 flights scheduled for December will end up running or are booked enough to be profitable.

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Outlook
Market effects
Futures for the three major U.S. stock averages rose overnight as investors considered the potential effects of the Omicron variant. Stocks previously sold off on Friday, with Wall Street suffering its worst day in more than a year, in an echo of panic that swept through markets when COVID was spreading in early 2020. The frantic response has more to do with fears of lockdowns and restrictions on the economy, as well worries that the variant could stall the global recovery.

Other movement: WTI crude oil prices (CL1:COM) rebounded more than 5% this morning to retake the $70 level, while travel industry shares inched up after a bloodbath before the weekend. A flight to safety also saw the 10-year Treasury yield tumble 15 bps to 1.49% on Friday, but it regained the 1.54% level overnight. Cryptocurrencies are in the green, with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rising 4.5% to $57,187 and Ether (ETH-USD) up 4.9% to $4,302 in the past 24 hours.

"While central bank commentary has been focused on upside risks to inflation, this [new COVID variant] highlights that there are significant downside risks and we are in a significant phase of uncertainty for the economy," noted Chris Scicluna of Daiwa Capital Markets.

What it means: Volatility is likely to ensue as more details about Omicron emerge as the market heads into December. The macro backdrop will be important to watch, specifically the jobs report on Friday, as well as if the inflationary environment continues to gain steam. Investors are also eager to assess coming rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, but Omicron could put a dent in the central bank's plans if new risks arise to economic activity.


Healthcare
Scientists scramble
Vaccine makers have thus far been hesitant to tweak existing coronavirus jabs due to fears it could become a game of whack-a-mole, but a super strain may change that sentiment. Testing involving Omicron is already underway among the big manufacturers, with several saying it would take about two weeks to establish whether the new variant renders their shots less effective. On Friday, South Africa's health minister said he expects current jabs to still offer protection against severe illness and death from Omicron, though they might be less effective at preventing infections and milder disease.

In case it doesn't: Pfizer (NYSE:pFE) and partner BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) said they would be able to adapt their vaccines within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days. Moderna can meanwhile get a new construct into human trials in less than 60 days, though manufacturing would take a few months. Any new candidates would also need to clear the regulatory process, getting a green light from the Food and Drug Administration.

In terms of therapeutics, Pfizer's (PFE) Paxlovid and Merck's (NYSE:MRK) molnupiravir are expected to target parts of the virus that are not changed in Omicron, and could be all the more important if vaccine-induced and natural immunity are threatened. Both drugmakers have licensed their antiviral pills to other manufacturers, so they should be widely available if needed. The Biden administration has even ordered 13M courses of the two drugs after seeing significant success in trials at preventing severe illness in high-risk groups.

Outlook: Regarding manufactured antibodies, Omicron's mutations are likely to render some treatments ineffective, according to Dr. David Ho, professor of microbiology and immunology at Columbia University. Investors are particularly worried about antibody drugs from Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), but some think Vir Biotechnology (NASDAQ:VIR) and AstraZeneca's (NASDAQ:AZN) could hold up better against this variant due to the way the antibodies are constructed to target the spike proteins. The new variant might also dull the impact of monoclonal antibody treatment because of those same mutations, declared Dr. Wendy Barclay, head of the G2P-UK National Virology Consortium.

Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -1.6%. Hong Kong -1%. China flat. India +0.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.2%. Paris +1.2%. Frankfurt +0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.7%. S&P +0.9%. Nasdaq +1%. Crude +5.1% at $71.63. Gold +0.6% at $1796.30. Bitcoin +4.5% at $57187.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +5 bps to 1.54%
Today's Economic Calendar
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
3:00 PM Fed's Williams Speech

Companies reporting earnings today »

What else is happening...
Black Friday sales growth reverses for first time - Adobe Analytics.

Thermo Fisher (NYSE:TMO) confirms its COVID tests accurately detect Omicron.

OPEC no longer has incentive to maintain oil production increases.

Biden to seek federal oil lease reforms like higher fees and climate focus.

Macau stocks on watch after Suncity (OTCPK:SCGHF) CEO detained by authorities.

Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) to spend $17.6B over five years to ramp up EV production.

Peloton (NASDAQ:pTON) sues Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) as legal spat heats up.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) may have AR headset for sale by late 2022 - MacRumors.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) forced to turn down €1.1B in subsidies for Germany battery factory.
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