Should they be is regards to prediction or balance?
As for balance I think most of them are pretty accurate.
Predictive numbers would be something like this, if current form holds up
NE -14+
Rams -20
Dal -17 +
Sea about right 10-14 points on the road, SF has been playing well at home and in general, so they actually have a shot to cover that number IMO. After that destruction by Wash they have been in every game they played this month.
SD about right line, but could/should be one of those 44-21 games, but with marty ball could be a 44-10 lead turning into a 44-37 win.
Den could win that game by 30
KC tough game. Hou playing better, but anything less than a full TD and you have to take the other side. Other than Cle they haven't stayed within a TD of anyone. (Cinci beat them by 6 tho)
As for balance I think most of them are pretty accurate.
Predictive numbers would be something like this, if current form holds up
NE -14+
Rams -20
Dal -17 +
Sea about right 10-14 points on the road, SF has been playing well at home and in general, so they actually have a shot to cover that number IMO. After that destruction by Wash they have been in every game they played this month.
SD about right line, but could/should be one of those 44-21 games, but with marty ball could be a 44-10 lead turning into a 44-37 win.
Den could win that game by 30
KC tough game. Hou playing better, but anything less than a full TD and you have to take the other side. Other than Cle they haven't stayed within a TD of anyone. (Cinci beat them by 6 tho)
Pancho Sanza said:Pinnacle need to put you on the payroll, clearly they are way off on some games.arty:
You truly are a tool. I said as far as BALANCE they were probably pretty close.
I would have made KC 6.5 (which it moved to from 6) as a tester instead of the full 7, because it is the prime time game and they will get action regardless.
NE opened 9.5 and has been pushed to 10.5, and will probably reach 12. I would have opened at least 10, (and even then it would have moved)but has been on and off the board so who knows what is accurate there.
Rams probably -10, but seems like 9.5 is right since it hasn't moved yet.
Denever was a decent line, they opened 12.5 and have gone to 13, I figure they will hit 14 before it is over.
Sea I would have opened 10 probably, but since they have moved from 11.5 to 13, I guess I would have had a worse line there.
It has a lot more to do with the teams than the lines. People that take teams based on the lines are destined to lose. Probably why everyone that chases and follows steam is either not posting or is borrowing money to bet a bunch of teasers.
When a team isn't even close it doesn't matter what the line is. But if you posted Denver -21 90% of the action would be on the Jets, even though I think Denver has a better than 50% chance to cover even that number. But that is full fledged gambling, and not the low level gambling most books do these days. But when people see 21 they automatically think "take the points". WHY? If Jets are 30 points worse is 21 going to do you any good?
People let the line influence them WAY too much in this game.
No I like SF in that game, but will wait for it to peak. I think 10 is more realistic.
Dallas hell ya. Det sucks in case you haven't figured it out. Det looking good agaisnt a hapless AZ team has people stymied, coupled with the way Dallas won Monday night, and people are frozen. That line hasn't moved one Iota. I bet it myself for a decent lead at -9 +108, and that didn't even move the vig. If Dal won that game 44-10 I wouldn't be shocked one bit. I surely can't see how Det wins SU, so I surely can't bet them +points.
If you meant Rams, yes why not?
AZ on the road..
@ NYG 19-42 loss
@ Sea 12-37 loss
@ Dal 13-34 loss
Show me where they have even been close on the road against a decent team? So why should I think they will all of a sudden start, they just lost to Det by 8 on the road. Are the Rams a point and a half better than Det? I hope so.
Dallas hell ya. Det sucks in case you haven't figured it out. Det looking good agaisnt a hapless AZ team has people stymied, coupled with the way Dallas won Monday night, and people are frozen. That line hasn't moved one Iota. I bet it myself for a decent lead at -9 +108, and that didn't even move the vig. If Dal won that game 44-10 I wouldn't be shocked one bit. I surely can't see how Det wins SU, so I surely can't bet them +points.
If you meant Rams, yes why not?
AZ on the road..
@ NYG 19-42 loss
@ Sea 12-37 loss
@ Dal 13-34 loss
Show me where they have even been close on the road against a decent team? So why should I think they will all of a sudden start, they just lost to Det by 8 on the road. Are the Rams a point and a half better than Det? I hope so.
Pancho Sanza said:
Why are you stuck on Seattle? I said I would think Sea -10 was right, obviously a lot of people think they are more than that, since it has moved.
Dallas is "probably right" at -9/10 ( I see mostly 8s,) but more than likely that is because of teasers and not the line itself. I just think they are 14 or more points better. Obviously books won't pst that then they get buried with Det money on tesaers. So they are handcuffed in that game.
They have been all year, that is why favs are winning at a 60% rate, because they can't post lines big enough and stay balanced.
Like I said, I am not sure what books could do to make the dogs and favs more even. Nothing really, it is up to the teams to do that, and to do that the shit teams have to play better or at least have a lot more shit teams matched up against each other.
I agree with everything in your post because if you have something that works stick with it. The only difference I would say is, I personally have mostly played Dogs in the past, but for some reason when I disect these games this year, I have seen better value in the favorites. Not sure why but I'm gald I have an open mind to change my philosphyFishhead said:
RED EYE said:
I'm exactly the same Red Eye, my two bets last week were Detroit and M/L Green Bay, I backed Indy -16 the other week against SF49ers but lost on Washington against the Giants. Its all a matter of opinion, whether the value is in the Dog or Fav, if you get it wrong enough times, you go skint. I mentioned those two games because in my opinion there is a difference. I have opposed Arizona the last two weeks but this week they play a team with a useless secondary, the only way Arizona can score, so if Boldin is back this week, giving up 9.5 hasnt the same value as giving up 9.5 to a 49er team going against a solid Seattle Defense.
Even more ridiculous is posters talking on a Wednesday about squares losing money on games Sunday when there is a question about who's starting, how square and arrogant is that. I keep saying it, all thats changed over the years in the NFL is the depth, or lack of it, on teams. One or Two players out can be horrendous and its only a matter of whether the other team can take advantage of it that week. On paper, Dallas giving up 9.5 looks a bit too much but Arizona with their 2nd & 3rd WRs out, couldnt take advantage of Detroits dodgy secondary, since then Detroit has lost two linebackers, so the match ups get to look better for Dallas and so does the 9.5
