Pancho Sanza said:
Pinnacle need to put you on the payroll, clearly they are way off on some games.
arty:
You truly are a tool. I said as far as BALANCE they were probably pretty close.
I would have made KC 6.5 (which it moved to from 6) as a tester instead of the full 7, because it is the prime time game and they will get action regardless.
NE opened 9.5 and has been pushed to 10.5, and will probably reach 12. I would have opened at least 10, (and even then it would have moved)but has been on and off the board so who knows what is accurate there.
Rams probably -10, but seems like 9.5 is right since it hasn't moved yet.
Denever was a decent line, they opened 12.5 and have gone to 13, I figure they will hit 14 before it is over.
Sea I would have opened 10 probably, but since they have moved from 11.5 to 13, I guess I would have had a worse line there.
It has a lot more to do with the teams than the lines. People that take teams based on the lines are destined to lose. Probably why everyone that chases and follows steam is either not posting or is borrowing money to bet a bunch of teasers.
When a team isn't even close it doesn't matter what the line is. But if you posted Denver -21 90% of the action would be on the Jets, even though I think Denver has a better than 50% chance to cover even that number. But that is full fledged gambling, and not the low level gambling most books do these days. But when people see 21 they automatically think "take the points". WHY? If Jets are 30 points worse is 21 going to do you any good?
People let the line influence them WAY too much in this game.