Sick is right. THis is a horrible bet. THis is like that guy who did live betting on NYG and cried when philly ran the punt back to win the game with a minute left. It's not easy money that's why you lost. They didn't use any mathematical skill and they got burned. They had probably been betting on teams that were up for some time thinking it was easy free money and they saw the sword of variance finally catch up to them. This guy got lucky, variance was on his side tonight. It may not be next time.
To a true advantage player variance is accepted, but to a wild gambler variance is your best friend and your worst enemy
To a true advantage player variance is accepted, but to a wild gambler variance is your best friend and your worst enemy
If this game would have landed on 1, Danny May would have been sick to the stomach, because he had no right playing that.. 1 pt games are not as uncommon as some of you must think.. 7-6
10-9, 14-13, 17-16, 20-19 21-20, 24-23,28-27....
Actually, the thing that was overlooked here is that it was calculated at 1.7% or more would be a bad bet, when in fact, that number is really 1.3%, not 1.7%. Reason why is it was overlooked that KC -1.5 -180 will win close to 62% of the time because it is a big fav laying -180, not 50%. That is why it is 1.3%, not 1.7%. So only about 35% of the time will you pick up 10 beans, and 3% of the time, you will get murdered. That is why it was not worth it at all this play..
So basically, Danny May today won nothing at all, and risked losing everywhere had KC won by 1. Not worth betting a game where you will push 62% of the time, win 10 bucks 35% of the time, and lose 280 bucks, 3% of the time. If you do this math, you will see how lethal this is..
I am very happy all worked out well for Danny, because he would have knocked himself in the head a lot tonight had this game ended 24-23.
And the worst part of it was, that he was only doing it to try to pick up 10 small bucks, if the big dog wins outright too..
Man, those are horrible odds Danny, you better not do that ever again..
, because one day, it will hit..
10-9, 14-13, 17-16, 20-19 21-20, 24-23,28-27....
Actually, the thing that was overlooked here is that it was calculated at 1.7% or more would be a bad bet, when in fact, that number is really 1.3%, not 1.7%. Reason why is it was overlooked that KC -1.5 -180 will win close to 62% of the time because it is a big fav laying -180, not 50%. That is why it is 1.3%, not 1.7%. So only about 35% of the time will you pick up 10 beans, and 3% of the time, you will get murdered. That is why it was not worth it at all this play..
So basically, Danny May today won nothing at all, and risked losing everywhere had KC won by 1. Not worth betting a game where you will push 62% of the time, win 10 bucks 35% of the time, and lose 280 bucks, 3% of the time. If you do this math, you will see how lethal this is..
I am very happy all worked out well for Danny, because he would have knocked himself in the head a lot tonight had this game ended 24-23.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by The General:
If this game lands on 1, then how many are you going to have to hit to make up the loss? Not worth the risk IMO.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Genny, seeing it's about 1.3% of the time he'd have to land on 1 to break even... If that game landed on 1, he'd have to hope the next 77 games don't land on the 1 for him to just get his money back..
Now that would be painful to have to go through, hoping the next 77 games don't hit the 1, just to get your money back. OUCH!!
DannyMay should count his blessings for that game not landing on 1 last night..
If this game lands on 1, then how many are you going to have to hit to make up the loss? Not worth the risk IMO.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Genny, seeing it's about 1.3% of the time he'd have to land on 1 to break even... If that game landed on 1, he'd have to hope the next 77 games don't land on the 1 for him to just get his money back..
Now that would be painful to have to go through, hoping the next 77 games don't hit the 1, just to get your money back. OUCH!!
DannyMay should count his blessings for that game not landing on 1 last night..
