Im taking Kansas City - 1 1/2 -180 and Oakland ML +190

[DannyMay]

I know its a big risk.

 

[Fishhead]

YOUR RISKING $280 to win $5

You have to ask yourself if their is a 1 in 56 chance of this game landing on KC by one.

 

[Tekari]

wow that is a horrible bet

 

[Fishhead]

If it does not land on 1.....YOU WILL BREAK EVEN OR WIN $10. That is how I derived at the $5 figure.

 

[HacheMan]

Well, if you win Danny, you get to treat yourself to a value meal at McDonalds.....

 

[Fishhead]

1 in 56 equates to 1.78571%

 

[Fishhead]

But on paper, KC has a better chance of covering 1.5 than Oakland does winning so your average win is actually less than $5

 

[vinividivinci]

I didn't know the insane asylums had internet access for their most-deranged patients.


VVV

 

[Fishhead]

So moving on lets say your risking $280 to win $4.80.

Dividing $280 by 4.80 we come up with 58.33.

So 1 in 58.33 is 1.714%

Does somebody have the figures on how often a 4 pt favorites wins by one? Or lands on one no matter the spread? I dont have those figures.

 

[Fishhead]

Believe you have a decent bet. I think KC wins this game by exactly one point less than 1.7% of the time.

 

[sickgambler]

on 100 dollars each side..

3% of the time, game will land on 1, and he will lose -840 (-280x3)

57% wins by 2 or more to break even

40% dog will win outright for 10 bucks = +400


_________


So over 100 middle/scalps here, daniel would lose 440 bucks (-840 +400). Very bad move on your part, Danny..

Basically, out of every 100 games, you will win 10 bucks, 40 times..And you will lose 280, 3 times, for 840 bucks, for a net loss of 440.. Is this really worth the sweat to sit there and cheer to win 10 bucks, and sweat out to lose 840 if it lands on 1.. Ouch!!!

Good luck Danny, and I will cheer for you that the game don't land on 1 tonight..

 

[SubZaero]

Never mind, i'm pretty sure he meant +1½....

[This message was edited by SubZaero on October 20, 2003 at 08:51 PM.]

 

[Fishhead]

SICK- Unless I am missing something, cant figure KC WINNING THIS GAME BY ONE POINT EXACTLY 3% of the time. No way!

 

[Fishhead]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SubZaero:
Maybe i'm not seeing this right, and correct if i'm wrong, but if he has KC-1½, and they win by 1, doesn't he lose both bets????

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

SUB- exactly. That is why he is risking $280 to win 10 or break even. That averages out to be close to $5.

 

[SubZaero]

Thanks strut, i got it now. It's just that in the thread's subject he has -1½. But i'm sure is just a typo.

 

[Fishhead]

Less chance of a game falling on one also since the advent of the 2 point conversion. Danny has a good bet.

 

[Journeyman]

Danny has been known to be a bit off the wall,lol....

Dan, may I ask, what your exact wager is tonight? as far as amounts?

I don`t see the reward / risk on this at all being worth it...

GL though..

 

[sickgambler]

why does Danny have a good bet here? This is one of the most horrible bets of all time. In the NFL, favs winning by 1 with the line -4 or less is very close to 3%..

This is a bad bet, very very bad bet...

 

[Fishhead]

Like I said, if the chance of the 4 point favorite winning by exactly one point is greater than 1.70%, this is not a good bet. This is what it all comes down to. Then it is still alot of theory involved. The only time I would even consider making a bet like this is to satisfy a rollover requirement or something equilavent.

 

[IDENTITY]

lol who is right, sick or strut? which of you knows more about the odds?