<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by tuleythetout:
The tourists who are stupid enough to play 6-5 blackjack would have kept betting the Panthers at that price
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
One of the first things you learn as a bookmaker in Vegas is playing to the FACES.
Obviously, if a highly respected bettor bet me the limit at +7 -130, then I would think strongly again about my 7 holding up being a strong number throughout the days heading up to the game.
The tourists who are stupid enough to play 6-5 blackjack would have kept betting the Panthers at that price
One of the first things you learn as a bookmaker in Vegas is playing to the FACES.
Obviously, if a highly respected bettor bet me the limit at +7 -130, then I would think strongly again about my 7 holding up being a strong number throughout the days heading up to the game.
What do you guys think about this? If u buy the opening line -6½ (-110)to -6 -120, risking that way 20 cents on Juice for the (6) 6.6% 2 Field Goals probabilty to land there usin 2002 stats, that for sure increases a lot on The superbowl,and then when the game is near the kickoff getting the +7.5 ( maybe at that time -115) so you lay 115/010 on the plus, gettin the chance of middling on the (7) 11.3% Touchdown possibility, that gives u more than 17.9 % probability of getting as much as 200 bucks laying only 20 bucks as a example! (1/4)in Superbowl!!
NewSchool- I am busy on another project currently, but will try to get around and anylaze your play later.
Just by looking, it is a very close call, but I can tell you right now based on previous years rusults that it is not advantages to buy a 6.5 down to 6.0 and having said that I know that laying -6.5 -110 and taking +7.5 -115 in NOT a win since only a SEVEN occurs about 5.3% of the time since the 2 point conversion was installed.
Laying -6.5 -110 and taking +7.5 -110 is a VERY SMALL WIN.
LATER
Just by looking, it is a very close call, but I can tell you right now based on previous years rusults that it is not advantages to buy a 6.5 down to 6.0 and having said that I know that laying -6.5 -110 and taking +7.5 -115 in NOT a win since only a SEVEN occurs about 5.3% of the time since the 2 point conversion was installed.
Laying -6.5 -110 and taking +7.5 -110 is a VERY SMALL WIN.
LATER
FISHEAD.......QUOTE "LAYING 6' AND TAKING 7' IS A VERY SMALL WIN"
then why dont you book some action at those numbers???????
let me just say you will not see any books floating numbers like that......
FISHEAD'S.....statistical analysis of the chance of the game landing on 7 is around 5.1 and 5.4%..........is very misleading.......if that was the case books would have no problem taking action at 6,7,7'
imo........normal stats dont apply to the superbowl......so you can disregard the 5.1 chance of the game landing on 7.......
last time the line was 7 in the superbowl it landed 7...........
historically when oddsmakers fluctuated the line too much over key numbers they have been burnt...............just my two cents
then why dont you book some action at those numbers???????
let me just say you will not see any books floating numbers like that......
FISHEAD'S.....statistical analysis of the chance of the game landing on 7 is around 5.1 and 5.4%..........is very misleading.......if that was the case books would have no problem taking action at 6,7,7'
imo........normal stats dont apply to the superbowl......so you can disregard the 5.1 chance of the game landing on 7.......
last time the line was 7 in the superbowl it landed 7...........
historically when oddsmakers fluctuated the line too much over key numbers they have been burnt...............just my two cents
dimes- I dont understand your question in the beginning of your post.
Why dont I book around those numbers???
I wouldnt!!
Agree the Superbowl is a different enity than regular season somewhat. Are you saying the game has a greater chance of falling 7 in the superbowl?
Your post is confusing to me.
Why dont I book around those numbers???
I wouldnt!!
Agree the Superbowl is a different enity than regular season somewhat. Are you saying the game has a greater chance of falling 7 in the superbowl?
Your post is confusing to me.
Scoring in football tends to take place an average of only about 8 times a game and as a result of few scores; the final scores do group around certain numbers, known as key numbers. The major key numbers are 3 and 7, but 1, 4, 6, 10, 13 and 14 have a high likelihood of being the final margin of victory as well and are sometimes referred to as minor key numbers. If we look at how all these numbers relate to 3 and 7, its easy to see why they occur frequently. The following chart shows the frequency of certain final scores for the 2002 NFL season as well as the relationship of the number to a combination of Touchdowns and Field Goals:
3 16.0% Field Goal
7 11.3% Touchdown
6 6.6% 2 Field Goals
10 5.1% Touchdown + Field Goal
3 16.0% Field Goal
7 11.3% Touchdown
6 6.6% 2 Field Goals
10 5.1% Touchdown + Field Goal
