I dont think there is any hard rules as its a matter of opinion but what nobody has mentioned is there's a hell of a lot of Traders out there nowadays (including Books and Locals)) who havent any intention of forming an opinion on the game or having a bet. That is why you see so much activity both ways 1/2 before a Game compared to years ago and if you dont believe me look at one of the Exchanges doing a live game, there's Thousands and Thousands before the off and only hundreds after. Personally I think its too time consuming but I know people who make it pay and they couldnt tell you one players name for their lives. You are all missing one huge point in all this but spilling the beans would be folly on my behalf. :drink:
Beeen using Matchbook and I am able to get a good number before it moves. However, it comes at a price of -110 or greater usually. Trying out Rx Odds & of course have Pinny up, but what I dont understand is how Mathcbooks juice is beating the line move of both the Rx Odds and Pinny. For example say Iowa is +14. Iowa then drops to +12.5 at Pinny & at Rx odds. In a heartbeat I am at Matchbook looking to bang Iowa +14, but the juice is already at -118! The inflated juice just seems to be ahead of every line move there. Anyone know why?
So a 14 cent move based off of what number?
No, I just meant that if the origin of a move was a 54% bet, then we'd only need a 14 cent move before we have a breakeven bet on the other side, and this is assuming we're betting into an 6 cent market. If we're betting into a market paying 100% then we would only need a 6 cent move to find ourselves with a breakeven bet.
The inflated juice just seems to be ahead of every line move there. Anyone know why?
Because matchbook is immediately being bet into, i.e. other people are getting there before you do.
No, I just meant that if the origin of a move was a 54% bet, then we'd only need a 14 cent move before we have a breakeven bet on the other side, and this is assuming we're betting into an 6 cent market. If we're betting into a market paying 100% then we would only need a 6 cent move to find ourselves with a breakeven bet.
The inflated juice just seems to be ahead of every line move there. Anyone know why?
Because matchbook is immediately being bet into, i.e. other people are getting there before you do.
I'll try and find your last thread on this, asked you about this in it, but think it died. But ultimately I am doing something similar this year as well. I have found that this works best in more public games, but I still try and play all sides and totals I can. I am pretty busy this year, so only getting 20 plays a week, including the weekend. And am not even looking at anything but game lines. I think looking at the so-called smart money is good.
But, that can get a little hazy. However, I do lay off favs who I feel are big public favs yet the line gets worse for the dog, thus giving the fav value. I dont know if this matters or not at all, but it makes me feel more confident in the plays. However if a line moves enough I will still take the best line all day every time, I use 2 point move is enough to justify playing what I deem a smart move. I think there is only a small spread where my bet will lose in the long run, thus even this sharp money is not sharp if it is being bet into a bad line.
The other thing I like to see is pin shading juice on the side you want at about that half hour mark. The reason why I like this is because we pretty much literally see that we are catching a peak. and in fact I only am betting the games where pin shades the side I want to bet. This almost guarantees I will beat their line ever time to with at least a low vig out. I dont have any numbers to back up why I do that, but it makes me feel more confident.
I am trying it out and comparing it to just beating the move, just by using a contest with stale lines as beating the closing lines. I don't have the time to actually watch and predict line movement all day. Thus far, they are both up a couple units over about only 50 plays, which is nothing. I expect them both to be up at the end of the year because I am only taking extreme numbers on both sides of what I consider a "true" number. Beating the steam seems to be doing a little better then fading the steam, but imo it is more work if I were to actually try and bet those plays.
But, that can get a little hazy. However, I do lay off favs who I feel are big public favs yet the line gets worse for the dog, thus giving the fav value. I dont know if this matters or not at all, but it makes me feel more confident in the plays. However if a line moves enough I will still take the best line all day every time, I use 2 point move is enough to justify playing what I deem a smart move. I think there is only a small spread where my bet will lose in the long run, thus even this sharp money is not sharp if it is being bet into a bad line.
The other thing I like to see is pin shading juice on the side you want at about that half hour mark. The reason why I like this is because we pretty much literally see that we are catching a peak. and in fact I only am betting the games where pin shades the side I want to bet. This almost guarantees I will beat their line ever time to with at least a low vig out. I dont have any numbers to back up why I do that, but it makes me feel more confident.
I am trying it out and comparing it to just beating the move, just by using a contest with stale lines as beating the closing lines. I don't have the time to actually watch and predict line movement all day. Thus far, they are both up a couple units over about only 50 plays, which is nothing. I expect them both to be up at the end of the year because I am only taking extreme numbers on both sides of what I consider a "true" number. Beating the steam seems to be doing a little better then fading the steam, but imo it is more work if I were to actually try and bet those plays.
