Here is what I have tried to add to what I had been doing successfully for 16 months. I am always looking for more plays and have thought this out long and hard and am now at a crossroads.
Originally what I have tried to do is beat slow moving books before they went to the next number as long as the number had moved enough, some call it the Pinny lean (as I used Pinny as my indicator) and others say it was somewhat chasing steam, bottom line I was just trying to beat thje closing line. I have been able to win at around a 54% clip like clockwork for almost 16 months and had 1 losing month and averaged around 900 plays a month. Overall I have been very happy with this.
I noticed this method working when I first started middling/scalping and I was mainly beating the slow moving books and losing or breaking even at the faster, sharper, buy back books. There was/is little to no handicapping involved. Bets were found any and everywhere such as 1st half totals, halftimes, etc and stuff like that, just not your game sides and totals though those were important.
This hoops season I decided to add something into the mix, which was to almost due the complete opposite of what I started out doing. I would find the settled in opening number (after a few hours of players betting off the opener) and if there was enough line movement throughout the day I would bet against the move. Meaning for example if Miami opened with a total of 208 and the total went up to 212 (ususally looked for 1.5 pts on a side and 2 point movements on a total) I would bet under the best number I could find at one of my 10 books. I would wait late to make these bets almost assuring me I always bet the best number seen all day. I tried to beat the Pinny closing line and with a few reduced juice shops I ususally did or I would catch a better than Pinny number at a book that may have overreacted to the line move.
Here is the problem: I lost doing this. I was still going with the my orginal plan also, which was too beat the slow moving books but if I missed the moves (which happens) I would basically bet against this. Now I only tried this with about 150 bets and I ran right around 50% with it, which A) means nothing in the big scope of things and B) 50% is losing money. Right before every half hour set of tipoffs I looked at the upcoming games and seen if they had moved enough off of their original starting number and than looked to see if I had bet the move earlier in the day and if not now I was loking to reverse it and fade the move. Basically doing the opposite. I did show a small profit with NBA totals but got pounded with NBA and CBB sides (didnt bet if injuries were the cause for line move). Doing this with CBB and all the smart money out there on totals maybe really dumb is something that also scared me.
My theory was shouldnt you win if you almost always get the best number? I have always explained to others that beating the closing line with the Pinny lean squeezes 5 extra wins out 100 that most push and lose on and that is where your edge comes into play. I thought (and still sort of do) that this is the same thing. Betting numbers at their apex should win.
For most that cap their plays this whole thing may be too extreme but it is proven over time that you if you beat the closing line you will win longterm and I have seen it firsthand myself. Now I am not neccessarily beating the closing number by a big enough magin to pull the trigger on this new method but I am always getting the best number and I only bet it if there was enough line movement from the settled in opener. I know this sounds like I am contradicting myself but lets says Miami opens -8 versus Indiana and closes -11. Miami -8 is a good number and Inidana +11 is a good number (I think).
Would love to hear feedback on this. Also would love to speak to someone who has data from past few years that may be able to back test this for me and see if this wins. If there is anyone out there that can help please contact me on this. Basically want to know if I am wasting my time. I will never quit with my Pinny lean and that will always be the focus but beating slow moving steam seems smart and is something I want to add into what I do. Call it the reverse Pinny lean (LOL). The probelm is alot of times you are fading some big line mover type guys, guys that I have witnessed winning for years but hopefully the lines move enough that overall we both win. The scary thing is I have never heard of a book boot someone for fading steam but follow and it you will get someone heat. So maybe I am answering my own question.
Originally what I have tried to do is beat slow moving books before they went to the next number as long as the number had moved enough, some call it the Pinny lean (as I used Pinny as my indicator) and others say it was somewhat chasing steam, bottom line I was just trying to beat thje closing line. I have been able to win at around a 54% clip like clockwork for almost 16 months and had 1 losing month and averaged around 900 plays a month. Overall I have been very happy with this.
I noticed this method working when I first started middling/scalping and I was mainly beating the slow moving books and losing or breaking even at the faster, sharper, buy back books. There was/is little to no handicapping involved. Bets were found any and everywhere such as 1st half totals, halftimes, etc and stuff like that, just not your game sides and totals though those were important.
This hoops season I decided to add something into the mix, which was to almost due the complete opposite of what I started out doing. I would find the settled in opening number (after a few hours of players betting off the opener) and if there was enough line movement throughout the day I would bet against the move. Meaning for example if Miami opened with a total of 208 and the total went up to 212 (ususally looked for 1.5 pts on a side and 2 point movements on a total) I would bet under the best number I could find at one of my 10 books. I would wait late to make these bets almost assuring me I always bet the best number seen all day. I tried to beat the Pinny closing line and with a few reduced juice shops I ususally did or I would catch a better than Pinny number at a book that may have overreacted to the line move.
Here is the problem: I lost doing this. I was still going with the my orginal plan also, which was too beat the slow moving books but if I missed the moves (which happens) I would basically bet against this. Now I only tried this with about 150 bets and I ran right around 50% with it, which A) means nothing in the big scope of things and B) 50% is losing money. Right before every half hour set of tipoffs I looked at the upcoming games and seen if they had moved enough off of their original starting number and than looked to see if I had bet the move earlier in the day and if not now I was loking to reverse it and fade the move. Basically doing the opposite. I did show a small profit with NBA totals but got pounded with NBA and CBB sides (didnt bet if injuries were the cause for line move). Doing this with CBB and all the smart money out there on totals maybe really dumb is something that also scared me.
My theory was shouldnt you win if you almost always get the best number? I have always explained to others that beating the closing line with the Pinny lean squeezes 5 extra wins out 100 that most push and lose on and that is where your edge comes into play. I thought (and still sort of do) that this is the same thing. Betting numbers at their apex should win.
For most that cap their plays this whole thing may be too extreme but it is proven over time that you if you beat the closing line you will win longterm and I have seen it firsthand myself. Now I am not neccessarily beating the closing number by a big enough magin to pull the trigger on this new method but I am always getting the best number and I only bet it if there was enough line movement from the settled in opener. I know this sounds like I am contradicting myself but lets says Miami opens -8 versus Indiana and closes -11. Miami -8 is a good number and Inidana +11 is a good number (I think).
Would love to hear feedback on this. Also would love to speak to someone who has data from past few years that may be able to back test this for me and see if this wins. If there is anyone out there that can help please contact me on this. Basically want to know if I am wasting my time. I will never quit with my Pinny lean and that will always be the focus but beating slow moving steam seems smart and is something I want to add into what I do. Call it the reverse Pinny lean (LOL). The probelm is alot of times you are fading some big line mover type guys, guys that I have witnessed winning for years but hopefully the lines move enough that overall we both win. The scary thing is I have never heard of a book boot someone for fading steam but follow and it you will get someone heat. So maybe I am answering my own question.