If you cap your own games, shouldn`t you ...

[Journeyman]

If you cap your own games, shouldn`t you do so first without knowing the actual line? How many,I wonder cap before ever knowing what the line is?

IS THIS THE RIGHT STRATEGY FOLKS?

 

[CaPPiNgTiGeRz]

Usually i'll cap games first and then come up with my own number and then compare with the actual pointspread and access value. Then i'll go ahead and make my bets. Im not one of the best cappers around but it has made me money for years now , so cant say if its the right or wrong way to go about handicapping. Different systems and styles work just as well for different players. If it works for you and makes money its the right strategy.

 

[VG789]

I always look at the lines first before doing anything else;this way,you might notice something that otherwise you wouldn't know (injuries etc.)

 

[wilheim]

Depends on the sport for me. In the NFL where every team is well known, I look at the line first. What I look for is games I can eliminate (big favs are one category), and games I can focus on. I like to bet small dogs so I will start with them. Baseball imo. is the best sport to make your own line first then compare it to consensus lines. Baseball teams can be big dogs one day, and favorites the next day vs. the same team, depending on who is pitching. This is not the case (barring injuries) in any other sport.


wil.

 

[daringly]

Journeyman - you're on the money. If you're serious about getting monster advantages, you have a tested method to determine the "fair line", and you have different risk amounts set (based on the actual line) before any line comes out.

When a line does come out, it simply tells you how much to bet (which is most often nothing, if it is in your "pass-range").

 

[RPM]

i cap before i know the line. so i would advise others not to do it that way.

 

[drunkguy]

depends...

personally, I rarely cap a game without looking at the line first, because I am capping AGAINST the line. A quick look can usually identify spots where you may be able to find value. I then concentrate on capping those games and determining if I think the line offers enough value to bet against.

If you have a ton of free time, the reverse will work just fine. But for me, when there are 100 games on a Saturday, there is no way I am capping every game without knowing where I stand with the lines. Usually I can discard 70% of all games right off the bat just by glancing at the line. Leaves more time to focus on the juicy stuff.

 

[Railbird]

The line is usually the last thing I look at, I pretty much already know what the line is going to be anyway.

 

[NickDouglas]

It depends on the sport but generally I try to handicap without looking at the lines first. Viewing the lines first sometimes draws me into "sucker bets" where the line looks too good to be true and it usually is.

 

[wilheim]

Rail - Ok real quick, UCLA at Arizona St. on thursday night. What will the line be?



wil.

 

[Railbird]

ASU -4.5

 

[Railbird]

BTW,

I think Howland will never reach the success Jimmy Harrick or Stevie Lavin had.

 

[MondoMan]

Wilhiem,

I'll never question Railbirds capping methods after all the shit he took making USC the fav in the opener at Auburn last year (college football). I may not agree with some of the jazz he says, but he nailed that one and backed it up for a couple months before the game was played.

I actually havea question for Railbird if he's out there. Is Matt Cassell still on the USC roster and before last season did he have a shot to make the starters spot?

One more thing boys, play Delaware -1 tommorrow at William & Mary.

 

[Railbird]

Mondo,

There making Matt a Tightend, Drew Bennentt was a 3rd string qb at UCLA.

 

[Railbird]

Mondo,

There making Matt a Tightend, Drew Bennentt was a 3rd string qb at UCLA.

 

[Horseshoe]

Like Wilheim, it depends on the sport, in college and pro football, I often make sets of power-rating numbers/then personal adjusted numbers on SEC & Top 20 games prior to Sunday night, but in most other sports, especially MLB & Moneyline events..I check the numbers first, then cap.

RPM, I find that making a line early, makes seeing the weekly line adjustments dips and climbs easier to notice and remember, plus keep old power sets around all year, they make for good research at times.

Rail, what is USC for the BCS next fall at now, how much you gonna lay on 'em?..gotta be prohibitive favorite(as much for best talent, as uncontested path to Miami)!

[This message was edited by Horseshoe on February 11, 2004 at 03:12 AM.]

 

[Railbird]

BTW,

My handicapping method is that I am out in the field quite a bit, meaning that I outwork the bookmakers. Im at the UFC fight at Madalay bay, Im going to he AFA-UNLV game the next day Im calling my cousin from the LongBeach St-Pacific game on my cell phone who is in the field at PebbleBeach . Im flying up to SanJose to watch 8 tennis matches the last 26 hrs to watch the sibel open in person. Im calling my freinds that have coaching jobs in Arena Football. Tommorrow I go check the medical staff in Torrey Pines to see if anyone has health issues and ask my caddy connections if they have any solid info. After a round at Torrey Thursday I may check a USD Torrero game in person.

 

[Horseshoe]

Rail, like the true cappers, you are passionate about sports-betting and capping, and that makes it enjoyable.

I've seen many a great cappers, that quite frankly felt it a chore, and burnt-out, despite their financial success.

I personally like to take a month off minimum heading into football season, or right at the MLB All-Star break, then back into Baseball continuing into Football.

 

[Railbird]

Shoe,

SEC,FSU and Miami are allowed to lose one, USC is not allowed to lose one. It is very obvious USC is 2 tds better than anyone, that wont change in 2004.

I also keep old Powerratings around for a reference point.

When do these Arena openers go up?

 

[Horseshoe]

LOL..Arena lines?..I'm following you!