If you cap your own games, shouldn`t you ...

[TheGeneral+]

Whatever works is the way to go.

If you have your own system and it works, then roll. I doubt many at all have their own system of predicting the line. Some do as I read about it, but a small %.

 

[SoundofSilence]

I use my power ratings to determine my line and total before the actual lines are posted. I then scratch any game that has new significant injuries. I keep injury values for significant players and how many points them being out effects the team (on a 3 game sample size) and I adjust accordingly. I then compare my line to the actual line and if it is off by a certain amount (2pts for NFL single digit lines, 4pts for NFL double digit lines; 3pts for CFB single digit lines, 6pts for CFB double-digit lines), then I take it. Every point that the actual line is better than my predicted line over the base requirement (2/4, 3/6) I add a unit... I then adjust if that extra point is a significant point (3/7/10)...

All of this takes about an hour for NFL, 2-3 hours for CFB -- but its produced a winning season the past 5 years.