If Sandy Koufax was in his prime pitching tommorow for KC, what would the line be?

[FairWarning]

KC +131 is kc had koufax in his prime. Remember, he wouldn't likely go 9 innings. Today's game is much more complex. Almost every pitch requires max effort.
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Correct. The starting pitcher is the most important thing when handicapping, but its importance is shrinking because of pitch counts. Koufax today would be a smaller favorite because he could get pulled for a pinch hitter. If today's game was in KC instead of Houston, he would be a much bigger fav thanks to the DH.

 

[pool]

Budworth22

I completely disagree with you're assessment. The game isn't any more complex today than it was back then. It's baseball period. Since St. Louis is the team I follow the most I'll use them for an example. If LaRussa had Bob Gibson pitching today and Gibson was cruising and LaRussa tried to pull him in the 7th or 8th inning there would be a fight on the mound. St. Louis fans know what I mean. Any manager that had a starter like Koufax with a bullpen like KC and pulled him in a game he wasn't struggling in would be fired.

 

[Budworth22]

In the old days, you only had to battle 2-3 hitters max per team. Nowadays teams have much better hitters. The use of video technology and computers has transformed baseball, as has the increased home run ball. Gibson wouldn't be able to throw as many innings as today's most durable starters do, look at his body. Every pitch really counts in todays game, in the old days it did not. Pitchers cannot just lay it in there now. They have to rely on the strikeout a bunch more. Scouting is also much more advanced, and hitters now focus on fouling off pitches to win the battle of attrition.
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[FairWarning]

I completely disagree with you're assessment. The game isn't any more complex today than it was back then. It's baseball period. Since St. Louis is the team I follow the most I'll use them for an example. If LaRussa had Bob Gibson pitching today and Gibson was cruising and LaRussa tried to pull him in the 7th or 8th inning there would be a fight on the mound. St. Louis fans know what I mean. Any manager that had a starter like Koufax with a bullpen like KC and pulled him in a game he wasn't struggling in would be fired.

Pool, the studs today get pulled all the time. Zambrano is as hot as anyony right now and got pulled at the 100 pitch mark last two starts. Saw Sabathia get pulled after 110 pitches last week after 5 innings even though he gave up 3 hits. Gibson, Jenkins, Koufax, Marichel, Seaver, Palmer, etc - no different. The money is too great to have their "investments" on the DL.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Hate to disagree on something like this, especially since no one can prove they are right or wrong but I think you guys are going way overboard on what the new price would be. Koufax wouldn't come close to dominating these days, not even close. Hell to be honest with you his record doesn't knock me off my socks back then and he was pitching to a pool of players that was much smaller than it is today. Not only the size of our country but now we have the best players in the world around, he wouldn't know what to do with a guy like Ichiro for instance. He always had trouble with his control, and by todays standards his stuff would not be near as overpowering as it was in the 50's/60's. To me he only had a good 5 years in his whole career.

I think the line on Houston today is already too high with Petitte/Duckworth, that being said the line would remain very close to what it is with Koufax, if anything might rise a little bit (for Houston) with him on the hill.

 

[pool]

FairWarning

Please don't take this the wrong way. I understand what you mean by teams protecting their investments. When you compared Zambrano and Sabathia to Gibson and Koufax I laughed so hard I had tears in my eyes. Gibson and Koufax were two of the best pitchers to ever play the game. Zambrano and Sabathia won't even be Hall of Famers. How is it that all the old time pitchers never spent as much time on the DL as pitchers now days yet they pitched so many more complete games? Just talk to baseball fans who saw these pitchers pitch and they'll tell you how good they were compared to todays pitchers.

 

[FairWarning]

Please don't take this the wrong way. I understand what you mean by teams protecting their investments. When you compared Zambrano and Sabathia to Gibson and Koufax I laughed so hard I had tears in my eyes. Gibson and Koufax were two of the best pitchers to ever play the game. Zambrano and Sabathia won't even be Hall of Famers. How is it that all the old time pitchers never spent as much time on the DL as pitchers now days yet they pitched so many more complete games? Just talk to baseball fans who saw these pitchers pitch and they'll tell you how good they were compared to todays pitchers.

Might want to look at Koufax's numbers again. I realize he left the game early, but Sabathia and Zambrano are far ahead of him at their stages on their careers. Sabathia won 17 games his first year. Took Koufax 8 years to do the same. Koufax only averaged 15 wins/year for his career (and thats with seasons of 25,26,27 wins). Koufax threw 27 CG's each of his last two seasons. Think that had something to do with his career being cut short?

I never saw Koufax, I started following baseball in 1969. I will say the medicine is far better today than the mid-60's.

 

[FairWarning]

Zambrano has 13 more wins at this stage of his career than Koufax too so you never know about who makes the HOF.

 

[pool]

That's why discussions like this are really difficult. Stats don't really tell you how good a pitcher was. Look at Clemons last year. His W/L record and no decisions wasn't really indicative of how good he really pitched. He got no run support and the bullpen blew alot of his games. In his prime he would have finished alot of those games but because of his age he just can't do that any more. Zambrano is a good pitcher but he isn't nearlly as good as Koufax was. Don't take my word for it just ask some old time fans you might know. The year Gibson had an era of 1.12 he had 9 or 10 losses. How the hell do you lose 9 or 10 games with a 1.12 era. He lost 1-0 and 2-1 several times. That effected his W/L record but it wasn't his fault he didn't get any run support. It's just very hard to make modern day fans understand how good some of the players were back in the 60's or 70's. Today you have the DH (which I hate), you have ALOT more teams than you had in the 60's so the talent is spread out more (except for the Yankees).

 

[CHOPTALK]

I just said Koufax just because he is regarded as an all-time great.

If you rather insert Bob Gibson or Roger Cleamons be my guest.

The point is, all the people who say that 70% of you capping going to pitching is too much.

But yet 1 pitcher can change the line over 200 cents.

It sure seems to me that the sportsbook uses at least 70% pitching, if not more.

I say Houston -125. Would not go as far as to make KC the fav. Although I would be betting KC today if that were a real game.

 

[ClipJoint]

Anyone who says Kansas City would not be favored is smoking crack.

Scott Kazmir is favored in some of his starts for Tampa Bay.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

You really think that subbing Koufax instead of using Duckworth would swing the line over 200 cents by itself? Hell the Duck went 6 innings and only gave up 2 runs, he's actually pitching pretty well this year considering what team he is on. No run support, no defense behind him, and certainly no bullpen/closer to seal the deal.

Koufax dominated his era, at least the last 5 or 6 years (he was 36-40 his first 6 years in baseball), but overall if he played in todays game he would have trouble making a team.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Anyone who says Kansas City would not be favored is smoking crack.

Scott Kazmir is favored in some of his starts for Tampa Bay.

CLIP JOINT, that even makes my point even more true.

A single pitcher can make a team go from +220 to being a favorite. But at the same time people make fun of me for saying that baseball capping is 70% pitching.

That was the whole point of this thread.

 

[ClipJoint]

The line would swing that far for sure...you eliminate one of Kansas City's many weaknesses by taking their bullpen out of the picture because Koufax could go the distance. It affects a lot more in the line than just the obvious starter vs starter when you have a pitcher that throws that many complete games.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

........you eliminate one of Kansas City's many weaknesses by taking their bullpen out of the picture because Koufax could go the distance.

Could being the key word there. In todays game how often do you see complete games being throw? Besides that he would still have the worst team in baseball to play with. Shoddy fielding, poor hitting etc...

Good discussion, opinions never hurt anyone, I just can't understand it. Houston goes from -240 to being a dog because we get Koufax instead of Duckworth? Wow.

 

[CHOPTALK]

And thats my whole point.

70% on pitching is more than justified.

Philly went something like 48-114 in the 60s one year, while STEVE CARLTON went 27-8 on that same team.

They were the worst team in baseball 3 out of 4 days. But they were the best team in baseball everytime he stepped on the mound.

 

[ClipJoint]

Could being the key word there. In todays game how often do you see complete games being throw? Besides that he would still have the worst team in baseball to play with. Shoddy fielding, poor hitting etc...

Good discussion, opinions never hurt anyone, I just can't understand it. Houston goes from -240 to being a dog because we get Koufax instead of Duckworth? Wow.

A line also has a lot to do with public opinion.

Duckworth is perceived by the public as much worse than he really is.

Koufax with his name would have every square in America backing him and the odds makers know that.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Good point Chop.

Although to play devil's advocate why are you using an example from way back in the 60's? Sure that happens, a pitcher can get hot and win no matter what team he is on. But many many more times than that is a bad team will hold a good pitcher down. No way can I see any pitcher moving the line well over 250 cents. Sorry, we will just disagree on this.

 

[ClipJoint]

Good discussion, opinions never hurt anyone, I just can't understand it. Houston goes from -240 to being a dog because we get Koufax instead of Duckworth? Wow.

How much do you think the line swings when you substitute Kazmir for McClung in Tampa Bay?

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

A line also has a lot to do with public opinion.

Duckworth is perceived by the public as much worse than he really is.

Koufax with his name would have every square in America backing him and the odds makers know that.

Agree agree agree. Still wouldn't make KC a favorite over Petitte and the Astros right now. They are playing great ball right about now on top of it all, well at least up until today. LOL.