How is Craig Kimbrel still unsigned?

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So the only player in MLB history to get voted unanimously for the HOF played a position only slightly better then an average closer .

Again I can’t prove that an elite player like Kimbrel is worth more then 2.5 wins a season over average but the closer position is so much more then someone who gets outs regularly in the 9th inning .

There is nothing more demoralizing to a baseball team that has an unreliable closer .
Its always in the back of every players mind that no matter what we could still lose this game in the 9th.

None of these scenarios can be calculated with a formula .

Im very pro analytics.
But closer has to be the most difficult position in baseball to value with numbers

Mariano Rivera last signed a FA deal for one season in 2012.

That is ages ago in MLB salary paradigms and it was also on heels of his previous 15 yrs with the richest team in baseball.

The eighth and ninth inning are indeed the most commonly high leverage for pitchers.

But in past five to seven years teams w smarter analytics and payroll mgmt have decided to take a different tack and build a bullpen made up of multiple men who can confidently get high leverage Outs.

And it's obviously the mindset of MLB's leading mgmt minds. None of the aforementioned leading teams other than the Yankees are deploying 8figure annual salaries for a single arm pitching just 75 or less innings per year.

Tough to be Kimbrel (or Keuchel or a few other pitchers) at this moment in baseball history. If they want to continue playing they will be forced to work with at most 2-3 year deals and AAV about half what may have been paid as recently as three and certainly five yrs ago
 

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2.5 WAR is a lot though (an elite closers surplus value), it isn't slightly abover average...FanGraphs calculates a surplus win to be worth about 8m. That would put avg prime Kimbrel season value to be at around 20m. His 3 best seasons all were between 3.2 and 3.7. But you have to keep playing like the best in the league to be worth that and the position lacks longevity.

Only 35 pitchers had a higher WAR than that last year, is an average Kimbrel season worth better than 35 pitchers? Seems like that is a decently accurate measure of his value.

Valid analysis, thanks

Distinction appears to be that "relief pitchers" - aka guys who only work 70 IP workloads are far easier to replace than guys who can work 170 IP (for one example) or batters who can put up 500+ PA per year
 

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The problem with WAR is your trying to estimate how much better a player is than some guy you can pull up from AAA ball if needed in a pinch. A guy that likely hasn't shown quite enough to remain in the majors just yet. I'd rather have some sort of stat that compares a big time player to just an average level established MLB player that is no star, just compent and ordinary and not outrageously expensive, how much better is whomever than a guy like that ?
 

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The problem with WAR is your trying to estimate how much better a player is than some guy you can pull up from AAA ball if needed in a pinch. A guy that likely hasn't shown quite enough to remain in the majors just yet. I'd rather have some sort of stat that compares a big time player to just an average level established MLB player that is no star, just compent and ordinary and not outrageously expensive, how much better is whomever than a guy like that ?

It is the average replacement player, even if you change it to a higher threshold of player, the numbers are going to come back the same in the sense that the player values will basically be the same. It is all relative.

i.e you could say with a higher threshold of player as replacement that someone like Kimbrel would have a lower surplus value, but so would everyone else above and below him as it relates to the metric.
 

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There are upwards of 40 to 50 arms in MLB who can deliver most of the raw stats Kimbrel brings but heretofore they have not been given the shot to fit into the role of "designated closer".

Most are aged well under 30 and cost between league minimum and maybe a couple million per year max.

The game's strongest analytical teams work for TB, NYY, HOU, BOS, CHC, LAD and PHI. And they are all moving away from designated closers, save for NY and - until Jansen's contract ends - LA.

The day of the "50 Save" man is gone forever. The day of the 40save man is drawing near. And for most teams, even a 30 save guy will be unusual.

Winning teams will continue to log 50+ Saves overall, but those will be distributed between two, three and frequently even four to five men each closing games based on matchups from the 7th inning on.

Joe Maddon, Terry Francona, AJ Hinch, Kevin Cash and Gabe Kapler are who you want to watch to better learn how pitching staffs will best be handled in coming seasons. And outside of NYY with their virtually unlimited payroll, no team will be paying a man who pitches under 90 innings more than $10m.....even that will be rare. Relief pitchers in general will be progressively dialed down salary-wise into the tiers of $3-5million tops.

The mental part is just as important as the physical part. I don't agree that the Cubs are moving away from closers. Their closer has been hurt since August. Maddon has been drifting away from the sabermetrics in handling his pitching. The real closer is the 8th inning pitcher now.
 

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It is the average replacement player, even if you change it to a higher threshold of player, the numbers are going to come back the same in the sense that the player values will basically be the same. It is all relative.

i.e you could say with a higher threshold of player as replacement that someone like Kimbrel would have a lower surplus value, but so would everyone else above and below him as it relates to the metric.

Certainly I know it is relative, I'm just saying a better way to get a sense of a guy's worth might be to compare him to a middle of the road somewhat established major league player that isn't highly paid, the kind of guy that wouldn't be too difficult to acquire instead of a fringe player from the minors as a replacement.
Kimbrel's greed will cost him a lot, turning down 17.9 M for one year with a team won the world series last year was incredibly stupid, if he waits until June 1st to sign, it will take him a few weeks to be ready to pitch, so late June before he pitches, at that point your looking at like 30-35 IP , maybe 5-6 M then instead of 17.9 !

As to replacement players, here is the perfect example of a replacement player. Yankees have so many injuries they almost are at the point of having to have walk- on tryouts !

They called up some guy I never heard of , Gio Urshela a 3B, SS type to help cover Andujar's abscence.
He's 27, slightly negative WAR, but close to zero
168 MLB games in just over 3 seasons
468 at bats,8 he,39 rbi, 10 errors.

Now that is a replacement fringe guy for sure, clearly no great hitter, unsure of his defensive skills, but clearly a huge step down from Andujar, even if was like an Ozzie Smith with the leather, which I doubt. He will suffice for now, back to Scranton before too long when Cashman/ Steinbrenner devise another solution. You have guys like this for precisely this reason, to fill a hole for awhile, he's clearly never going to be a major league starting 3B guy, at best a bench player.
.224,
 

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The mental part is just as important as the physical part. I don't agree that the Cubs are moving away from closers. Their closer has been hurt since August. Maddon has been drifting away from the sabermetrics in handling his pitching. The real closer is the 8th inning pitcher now.

Not so much among the most smartly analytical clubs, which at this moment would be the Rays, Red Sox, Astros and A's

The whole concept of 'the closer' began in late 80s and held serve for almost a quarter century.

But today, smarter teams have snapped to the realization that:

1) Paying a single pitcher who works approx 70 innings a year *top dollar* is a dubious use of salary.
2) Holding back use of your perceived *best arm* until the 8th or 9th inning leads to many occasions throughout a season where the game is lost in the 5th-7th innings because you encounter a truly high leverage moment during those innings (for a common example.....leading by one or two or maybe tied and your opponent loads bases with zero or one outs) and tradition sez to use a possibly much less dominant pitcher hoping to stifle the rally.

Both Maddon and Francona gave us a big stage peek at the *new* paradigm during the 2016 postseason.

Maddon repeatedly brought A Chapman in as early as the sixth inning and Francona was using Andrew Miller in similar fashion.

The new paradigm will be clubs still having two, maybe three guys in the 70-90 inning range while also having two to three of their best relief arms working 110-130 innings.

Think of how the best managers used relievers in the 1970s.

Sparky Anderson used Borbon and Eastwick for combined 230+ innings

Billy Martin used Sparky Lyle in 1977 for 130 innings including playoff appearances of 3+ innings

In 1978 Yankees used Lyle and Gossage for over 240 innings combined

Oakland won three World Series using Rollie Fingers 120+ innings
 

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It could well be a valid point w regard to Kimbrel that he (thru his agent) is telling clubs he will only sign if promised multiple years AND only (90% of appearances) pitches in 9th or later.

Too bad for him because the game is changing away from his preferences
 

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The two best highly detailed explanations regarding where MLB is going with regard to how pitching staffs will be constructed and handled would be:

AHEAD OF THE CURVE -- by Brian Kenny (published following 2015 season)

SMART BASEBALL -- Keith Law (published last summer)
 

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The two best highly detailed explanations regarding where MLB is going with regard to how pitching staffs will be constructed and handled would be:

AHEAD OF THE CURVE -- by Brian Kenny (published following 2015 season)

SMART BASEBALL -- Keith Law (published last summer)

And for the best ways to see the new paradigm in action, watch the Rays, Astros, RedSox, A's, Cubs and Indians

Don't blink or you might miss seeing the Yankees (who have the highest paid analytics team in MLB....no shock) begin regularly employing an Opener to start at least one game in five, especially if Severino is shelved for season.

Having Chapman, Betances (when returned), Britton and Ottavino on the roster and *only* using them in the back half of games is a horrid use of manpower. Letting one of them Open a game for first five to seven batters is smarter than rolling out some lower-ability *young prospect*

The RedSox used an Opener yesterday at Arizona and will likely be doing it many more times especially in the *fifth starter* slot.

By 2021 or sooner, every team in MLB will be using an Opener to start at least one game a week....The less financially heavy teams will frequently be doing it twice a week
 

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Agree Sarge. I didn't like this opener stuff when Tampa Bay basically originated the concept , but it has been very successful and copied
A team like the NYY that lacks starters but has an excellent bullpen is perfect for an opener, anything really to get more innings out of your best arms, I've been saying for years to use your pitching staff as a staff and not have guys that are only used in specific innings, bring in your best when it matters the most regardless of what inning it is
 

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Red Sox will right the ship soon but bullpen looking quite average right now .... Pedroia back for them is great but he'll take some time to adjust since only playing 3-4 games since last May
 

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Kimbrel now on his second trip to DL since joining Cubs in late June. 5.68 ERA 1.53 WHIP

Only 35 Million Dollars still guaranteed on this contract which now eclipses the Angels pair of monster financial baths taken when they traded for A Pujols and J Hamilton
 

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Guy was ineffective from day one. Red Sox sure dodged a bullet. Didn’t really help them in the end though
 

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Hindsight is always 20/20 or better !

I never bought into the concept of paying megamillions to guys like Rivera, Chapman, Kimbrel etc, that pitch 60 innings a season, that closer role is the most overpaid position in sports
 

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Hindsight is always 20/20 or better !

I never bought into the concept of paying megamillions to guys like Rivera, Chapman, Kimbrel etc, that pitch 60 innings a season, that closer role is the most overpaid position in sports

Not really overrated when you need a guy to close out a high leverage game. Not many capable of doing it.
 

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