It is the average replacement player, even if you change it to a higher threshold of player, the numbers are going to come back the same in the sense that the player values will basically be the same. It is all relative.
i.e you could say with a higher threshold of player as replacement that someone like Kimbrel would have a lower surplus value, but so would everyone else above and below him as it relates to the metric.
Certainly I know it is relative, I'm just saying a better way to get a sense of a guy's worth might be to compare him to a middle of the road somewhat established major league player that isn't highly paid, the kind of guy that wouldn't be too difficult to acquire instead of a fringe player from the minors as a replacement.
Kimbrel's greed will cost him a lot, turning down 17.9 M for one year with a team won the world series last year was incredibly stupid, if he waits until June 1st to sign, it will take him a few weeks to be ready to pitch, so late June before he pitches, at that point your looking at like 30-35 IP , maybe 5-6 M then instead of 17.9 !
As to replacement players, here is the perfect example of a replacement player. Yankees have so many injuries they almost are at the point of having to have walk- on tryouts !
They called up some guy I never heard of , Gio Urshela a 3B, SS type to help cover Andujar's abscence.
He's 27, slightly negative WAR, but close to zero
168 MLB games in just over 3 seasons
468 at bats,8 he,39 rbi, 10 errors.
Now that is a replacement fringe guy for sure, clearly no great hitter, unsure of his defensive skills, but clearly a huge step down from Andujar, even if was like an Ozzie Smith with the leather, which I doubt. He will suffice for now, back to Scranton before too long when Cashman/ Steinbrenner devise another solution. You have guys like this for precisely this reason, to fill a hole for awhile, he's clearly never going to be a major league starting 3B guy, at best a bench player.
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