First one I am taking this year is Toronto.
If Toronto stays healthy they are going to really challenge Boston and New York. They have a great pitching staff, from top to bottom possibly the best in the MLB imo. They have two of the top starters in the league and an awesome bullpen. They have a little depth to work with too this year. They upgraded their batting and have some great fielders to sub in when the situation calls. This team is stacked, and being in Boston and New York's division I don't think hurts them. I think it bumps up their line and gives them more value.
Toronto Blue Jays 35-1
Toronto is a gutless team. No heart. They've got some damn good pitching though!