First time this year, but I actually have three big plays today. I feel very confident in all three.
Big Play Overall Record: 29-9
Big Play Tracking:
April 25: DBacks +130 (W)
April 26: Orioles +118 (W)
April 28: Yankees -1 [even] (W)
April 29: Tigers -110 (L)
May 5: Brewers +122 (L)
May 8: Marlins -160 (W)
May 8: Dodgers -120 (W)
May 14: DBacks +120 (W)
May 17: Yanks TT over -120 (W)
May 21: Tigers -125 (L)
May 22: Tigers -110 (W)
May 22: Athletics +105 (L)
May 25: Padres +105 (W)
May 26: Royals +130 (L)
May 29: Yankees -159 (W)
June 2: Twins +110 (W)
June 3: Red Sox -1 [-145] (W)
June 6: Royals +110 (W)
June 8: Rangers -172 (W)
June 11: Angels -140 (W)
June 16: Orioles [even] (W)
June 16: Braves -120 (W)
June 17: Indians -140 (W)
June 19: Reds -125 (W)
June 24: Blue Jays -105 (W)
June 28: DBacks -155 (W)
July 5: Astros +105 (L)
July 6: Giants -150 (W)
July 7: Dodgers -150 (W)
July 9: White Sox -145 (W)
July 17: Tigers -120 (W)
July 19: Twins -120 (W)
July 21: Marlins -120 (L)
July 27: Blue Jays -165 (W)
July 27: Reds -140 (L)
July 28: Reds -136 (L)
July 28: Rays +112 (W)
August 3: Giants -142 (W)
Aug 7:
SF Giants -126
ARI DBacks -107
BOS RSox -159
SF:
Lincecum has pitched well lately. 1.35 ERA in 20 innings of work in the past 3 games. 2.77 ERA in 149 innings on the year. At home, 3.36 in 69 innings, 2.92 in day games. Against Philly, in 154 ABs (strong sample size), they are only batting .175 with only 8 RBIs. Howard has hit him well, but also SO 8 times out of 23 ABs. If he can take care of Howard, then shouldn't have much of a prob with the rest of the lineup. Tim should be able to hold Philly to a minimal score.
Oswalt's first game since being activated off of the DL. One of my rules, don't trust a pitcher first game off of the DL! Wait to see how well he really is. Therefore, on it's face, I'm already liking this matchup. The last three games prior to going on the DL, Oswalt had a 6.46 ERA. 3.79 ERA on the year which isn't terrible, but only a 4-6 record. He has been the "Bosh" of Philly's big three so far this year. Not getting much run support and I don't see that happening today as well. SF batting .281 vs. Roy in 231 ABs (good sample size). .317 OBP and only 44 SOs. Beltran is .370 against with a jack and 8 RBIs in 27 ABs.
Big mismatch on the mound. SF is a big play.
ARI:
Kennedy has shaped up as a very good pitcher this year becoming the ace of the DBacks. Overall, he is 13-3 with a 3.17 ERA. Recently, he has been unstoppable. In his last 3 games, he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Put that together with ARI's offense and you have a deadly combo. Against LA, they are only batting .233 with only 5 RBIs in 60 ABs. LA's big guys haven't hit him - Eithier going 1 for 9 and Kemp going 2-8. Kennedy has the stuff to shut down this Dodger offense.
Kershaw has been great all year as well. Not many people realize though that Kennedy has been every bit as good. The number are nearly the same; however, Kennedy doesn't have the luxury to pitch in LA. Although ARI has a poor BA against Clayton, they have made him throw pitches in the past. Only 36 SOs in 106 ABs which isn't too terrible considering Kershaw is a SO pitcher. Kershaw gave up 4 runs to ARI in his last outing against them so we know they have the ability to put up some runs.
Fun fact: Clayton Shaw was the only person indicted in the alleged conspiracy to assassinate President John F. Kennedy. He was found not guilty. Resource: JFK by Oliver Stone.
DBacks have the better offense which should play key in a pitchers' duel. Going with ARI as a big play.
BOS:
Beckett has been solid all year. 9-4 record with a 2.20 ERA. Against NY, they are only batting .261 in 449 ABs. That's including ARod who has hit him well but is not playing today. NY's #3 hitter Teixiera is only hitting .171 against him. Beckett has really impressed me this year and had what it takes to minimize the damage against the Yankees.
Garcia is my main focus here. He has done surprisingly well this year with a 10-7 record and a 3.22 ERA. BOS is batting .301 with 6 HR and 22 RBIs on 163 ABs. Ortiz .294, Aviles .636, Crawford .286, Ellibury .300, Scutero .462. Overall, only 28 SOs on the 163 ABs. Boston's offense is far too consistent and potent for Garcia to handle. He has faced BOS 3 times this year, 2 starting and 1 in relief. In his last start vs. BOS, he lasted 1.2 innings and gave up 4 ERs. The start before that, 5 innings pitched and gave up 4 ERs. Before that, pitched 1 inning in relief and gave up a run. He has not faired well against the Red Sox.
Another big consideration is BOS has owned NY this year with a 10-2 record. It's had to bet against that. RSox offense is very consistent and can put up a lot of runs quick. Very dangerous and with a solid pitcher like Beckett on the mound, make it hard to go against. Red Sox are a big play today.
Hookem
