Homedawg's World Series Thread 8-11. -5.16

[homedawg]

Playoffs: 8-11. -5.16

Other thread was getting kind of cluttered so started a new one for the world series.

Pending Bets:

Tampa to Win World Series 1.50/8.97
Made at beginning of playoffs

Philadelphia to Win World Series 1.50/1.88
Hedge against earlier bet.

GM 1

2 Units

Phil/TB Under 7.5 +114

The long lay off favors the pitchers, esp with such dominate arms as Kaz, and Hamels. Hamels has been down right dirty, and Kaz hasn't been bad himself. I don't see Philly scoring many runs in this series. They rely so heavily on the long ball, and simply don't see them getting them consistently enough against the Tampa staff. I expect the pitchers to dominate game 1.

 

[TheGuarantee]

Good luck, wanted to play this myself, but saw it at wsex at -125. Has it really moved that much? Personally I think the price on Hamels is very playable.

 

[beerformyhorses]

thanks homedawg. i was leaning under as well. do u think it might reach 8 closer to gametime, as public perception is both teams score alot of runs with the longball?

 

[homedawg]

i don't see the game coming off 7.5. Hamels is looked at as an under pitcher, and even tho Kaz struggles at times he is seen as an under pitcher for the most part as well. i would grab it at the best available juice

 

[beerformyhorses]

thanks dawg. lets hope for a great pitchers duel. maybe 2-1 12 inning game and the managers use the entire pen in game 1.

 

[homedawg]

2 Units

Tampa -101

 

[homedawg]

Tuesday: 1-1. +.26
Overall: 9-12. -4.90


stupid last min bet on TB costs me.

 

[beerformyhorses]

game 1 total played out as expected. pitchers dominated. round 2 on thursday, with football as well.

 

[homedawg]

game 1 total played out as expected. pitchers dominated. round 2 on thursday, with football as well.

Yes sir. You have to think Tampa should win this game. Also a lean to the over. btw San Jose St may be one of my bigger wagers of the yr this Friday.

 

[beerformyhorses]

yeah i agree. tampa lost game one to sox and came back and won game 2. im def leaning tampa as well. i dont believe myers will be as sharp on the road as he is at home. plus he is not batting to annoy the pitcher and frustrate the rays with his dink hits. thanks for the insight on san jose st. im not real familiar with them. i will def take your word on them. best of luck and lets cash tonight.

 

[knucklecup]

The difference being, the Rays had no business winning game two. If not for Terry Francona, that series is played out way differently IMHO.

 

[homedawg]

2 Units

GM 2 TB/PHIL Under 8.5 -115

 

[homedawg]

Thurs: 1-0. +2.0
Overall: 10-12. -2.90

 

[homedawg]

GM 3

2 Units

Philadelphia +112

Hate to do this, but I think Philly may steal one when most don't expect them. Just by looking at the pitching matchup you have to think Tampa, no brainer, but after a closer look I feel they can run into some problems tonight (or whenever they play the game). Garza is getting a ton of love, and deservily so, but facts are facts. Garza is a much better pitcher at home. 2.89era at home, 4.53 on the road. Throw that up against the Phils lefty dominant lineup and you may have some problems. All their big bats (Howard, Utley, and Victorino hit better against righties, and Jimmy Rollins hits about the same against both. Throw all those bats in that little bandbox where they all hit better and I see the Phils stealing one here.

Phil/TB Over 9 -110

Small stadium where the balls fly out at an alarming rate. Favorable batter vs. pitcher matchups.

 

[BetHalfLines]

On the Phils too, and headed down there early this afternoon. I think everyone is on TB, which makes me happy. I like Moyer to pitch well tonight, after 2 poor games. I know TB is patient at the plate, but I think he does enough to get the win. Not to mention, both of his poor outings were on the road, so this gives things a nice change. (and yes, his road ERA during the year was better, but ohh well). Hopefully, whoever is behind the plate will give him the corner calls behind a raucous Philly crowd. Good Luck.

 

[homedawg]

Saturday: 1-0-1. +2.24
Overall: 11-12. -.66

Pending Bets:

Tampa to Win World Series 1.50/8.97
Made at beginning of playoffs

Philadelphia to Win World Series 1.50/1.88
Hedge against earlier bet.

 

[homedawg]

GM 4

5 Units

Tampa -107

Much better matchup for the Rays. They get a righty who they hit much better against. Also helps that Blanton is a contact pitcher, something Longoria, and Pena need to see. Tampa plays small ball and going against a contact pitcher such as Blanton is usually benificial.
As for Sonnastine he will keep the ball in the park, something that Garza struggles with at times. I think he will fare much better than Garza did (as I played the Phils in game 3). As I said Philly lives on the long ball and they were able to get a handful off of Garza. If you make the Phils work thats when they tend to struggle. I think Sonnastine will do just that. Keep the ball in the park, and let his offense go to work on a contact pitcher.

 

[topspinelite]

nice turnaround this post season.

Tampa bay will even it up tonite. Blanton is going to surrender at least 3 runs, and phillys will have a hard time stringing together enough hits to make those up.

 

[homedawg]

Thanks Topspinelite. My exact thinking

 

[Boxer22]

nice turnaround this post season.

Tampa bay will even it up tonite. Blanton is going to surrender at least 3 runs, and phillys will have a hard time stringing together enough hits to make those up.

They had a really tough time hitting tonight. HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA gotta love the Philly haters.