CHICAGO +3½ +100 over Green Bay SportsInteraction
This week’s flavor of the week: The Green Bay Packers. Why not? After all, the Packers went into Philadelphia two weeks ago and knocked off the very trendy Eagles before stopping in Atlanta to pulverize the NFC’s top-seeded Falcons by a dominating 48-21. Green Bay’s defense has been strong all season and its level has risen in these playoffs. The Pack suffered many injuries during this campaign but adapted well and with some of their starters back in the line-up, the offence has become increasingly dangerous. The Packers are on a four-game winning streak and are a victory away from a trip to Dallas for this year’s Super Bowl. While most everyone is picking this sexy Green Bay squad to win on Sunday, the Chicago Bears will have something to say about that. This figures to be Green Bay’s toughest playoff test, yet the Packers are favored for the first time this post-season in all places, Soldier Field. Talk about an overreaction. All Chicago has done is win the NFC North, split the season series (which we’ll get to in a moment) and handily defeat a Seattle team that the defending champion Saints could not. This is a solid unit and one that knows this visitor all too well. Green Bay paid a visit here back in late September, as a 3-pt favorite, and departed as 20-17 losers. However, the game that intrigues us more was this year’s final game for both teams. The Packers were in a must-win situation to qualify for these playoffs. Despite the urgency, evidenced by Green Bay being an inflated 11-pt choice in that one, it took until the fourth quarter for the Packers to break a 3-3 deadlock before scoring a game-winning touchdown. The Bears were already locked in as a No. 2 seed and didn’t need to play their regular line-up. However, coach Lovie Smith decided to leave his starters in. Many were puzzled but some are thinking that Lovie was crazy like a fox. Not only did QB Jay Cutler and the rest of his Chicago mates get to witness the Packers at their desperation best, they also were presented an opportunity to play possum by not showing Green Bay their best hand. There is no question that Aaron Rodgers is in peak form right now. However, this is not a fast track like the Georgia Dome. Players alike will tell you that Soldier Field has one of the worst surfaces in this league. That suits the Bears just fine. Not only has Chicago covered six of its past seven on grass, the Bears have the more versatile backfield with Matt Forte (who had 151 combined yards in Week 17), complimented by Chester Taylor and a run defense that was ranked #2, only behind Pittsburgh’s stout group. This figures to be a battle and while Chicago, and particularly Cutler, can be erratic at times, we’re happy to be receiving points on this field with a strong defense and an opponent that matches up well with its familiar rival. Play: Chicago +3½ +100 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –3½ over N.Y. Jets Pinnacle
Had this game been played before the Jets knocked off the heavily favored Patriots last week, this game would have had the Steelers favored by six or more. Thank you, Patriots. New York’s upset resulted in a reduced rate and one we intend to take full advantage of. While we can’t ignore what the Jets have done to get here, they have not seen a defense quite like this Steelers group. Both New England and Indianapolis were leaky throughout the season and to their credit, the Jets’ coaches found ways to control tempos and find enough holes to ultimately come out on top. Don’t expect the same on this day. Pittsburgh’s defense was nothing less than incredible this season. Most notably, the strongest part of their defense is what New York relies mainly upon, that being the ground game. The J-E-T-S love to run the ball and they did it efficiently, gaining an average of 148 yards-per-game, ranking them 4th overall. But if you can’t run, it forces you to pass and as we’ve said time and time again, we really don’t want to rely on Mark Sanchez’ arm to win us a game. Sanchez is a maintenance guy at this point of his young career, not a guy whose throwing ability can carry you to victory. Pittsburgh’s run stoppers allowed an average of slightly less than 63 yards per game, one of the lowest totals in league history. To illustrate, the next best unit did not allow two or three or ten yards less per game but a bulky 28 yards per. We saw Pittsburgh’s defense force its will on the Ravens just last week. Baltimore had less than 100 yards of offense heading into the fourth quarter, before finishing with a mere 153 for the game. To make this trip worse for the Jets, the Steelers have not forgotten New York’s recent visit here as the Jets left town with a 22-17 victory. However, in that game, Pittsburgh outgained its visitor by more than 100 yards and the Jets were aided by a rare 97-yard kick return by Brad Smith. In addition, the Steelers were without star safety Troy Polamalu and tight end Heath Miller, both of whom will play this weekend. As odd as it may sound, this game could actually be a letdown spot for the Jets. Nothing mattered more than defeating the Patriots in a playoff game. Now the New Yorkers are being asked to play its fifth road game in six weeks and they will have had one day’s less rest than their host. For the first time this post-season, the Jets will face an opponent that is better on both sides of the ball and the outcome will not be a favorable one. Play: Pittsburgh –3½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
