Great day for NBA WISEGUYS!

[Fishhead]

Fishhead I want to be like you when I grow up..

.....or viceversa.


:toast: :toast:


HAVE A PROFITABLE NIGHT GYNO!

 

[boatboatboat]

edit

 

[Iceman]

4% probability


96% chance that you dont hit your middle... what a waste of time...


bet you lose 21 bucks hno:

middiling is the single biggest reason I have won this year. It's hard work but if done properly well worth it.

 

[PanchoSanza]

7 lands more than any other number in the NBA but only slightly more than 5 6 and 9.

Not as much as Fishy believes thats for sure.:drink:

 

[boatboatboat]

How much does Fishy believe that 7 lands?

 

[Fishhead]

7 lands more than any other number in the NBA but only slightly more than 5 6 and 9.

Not as much as Fishy believes thats for sure.:drink:

Never stated by how much, in this thread anyways...........:drink:

However, if you do a search you may find my NBA numbers someplace on this website which I posted a few years ago.

:drink:

 

[Magic32]

This is a great thread. What great reading!

BOL to everyone tonight. :drink:

 

[boatboatboat]

right now at matchbook you can get Eastern KTY for +122. They are a 1 pt dog.

FH that is the type of bet I am talking about. Taking basicly a pickem type game, and getting a +122. Lord.......bet 100 of those over the course of a year, and hit on 40 and you are MONEY!

 

[Fishhead]

right now at matchbook you can get Eastern KTY for +122. They are a 1 pt dog.

FH that is the type of bet I am talking about. Taking basicly a pickem type game, and getting a +122. Lord.......bet 100 of those over the course of a year, and hit on 40 and you are MONEY!

:toast: .......congrats.


Sorry, CAN'T write long right now........busy, busy time as ICEMAN stated.

FOLLOWING THAT ILLINOIS GAME CLOSELY.

 

[HarryCaray]

Total on Wash/Atlanta is 198.5 at the Greek and 200.5 at sportsbook, FYI.

 

[quantumleap]

4% probability


96% chance that you dont hit your middle... what a waste of time...


bet you lose 21 bucks hno:

I've been thinking about this from time-to-time today since we had the middling thread earlier that referred to last night's 10-point win by Seattle.

Let's say you make $100 bets and bet low vig (-105)-

If you hit a middle betting +10.5 and -9.5 you win:
$95 + $95 = $190

Any other result you win one bet and lose the other:
$95 - $100 = -$5.

Therefore you need to hit one middle for every 38 bets:
$190/$5 = 38 which translates into 2.6% (1/38).

Therefore, in order for this to be profitable, the favorite must win by 10 points in at least 2.6% of NFL games. I saw a table by Stanford Wong in his book "Sharp Sports Betting" that listed out the historical percentages of a favorite winning by a certain line. Does anyone know what it is for this scenario?

If you bet normal vig (-110) you are going to win $180 for every middle and you will lose $10 for every non-middle. You would have to win this middle once every 18 games or 5.6% of the time in order to make money in the long run.

 

[boatboatboat]

I suspect very few of his bets he pays a 10% vig.

 

[HarryCaray]

I've been thinking about this from time-to-time today since we had the middling thread earlier that referred to last night's 10-point win by Seattle.

Let's say you make $100 bets and bet low vig (-105)-

If you hit a middle betting +10.5 and -9.5 you win:
$95 + $95 = $190

Any other result you win one bet and lose the other:
$95 - $100 = -$5.

Therefore you need to hit one middle for every 38 bets:
$190/$5 = 38 which translates into 2.6% (1/38).

Therefore, in order for this to be profitable, the favorite must win by 10 points in at least 2.6% of NFL games. I saw a table by Stanford Wong in his book "Sharp Sports Betting" that listed out the historical percentages of a favorite winning by a certain line. Does anyone know what it is for this scenario?

If you bet normal vig (-110) you are going to win $180 for every middle and you will lose $10 for every non-middle. You would have to win this middle once every 18 games or 5.6% of the time in order to make money in the long run.

I imagine part of the key is getting more than one point or getting one side of the middle at +odds.

 

[Iceman]

I've been thinking about this from time-to-time today since we had the middling thread earlier that referred to last night's 10-point win by Seattle.

Let's say you make $100 bets and bet low vig (-105)-

If you hit a middle betting +10.5 and -9.5 you win:
$95 + $95 = $190

Any other result you win one bet and lose the other:
$95 - $100 = -$5.

Therefore you need to hit one middle for every 38 bets:
$190/$5 = 38 which translates into 2.6% (1/38).

Therefore, in order for this to be profitable, the favorite must win by 10 points in at least 2.6% of NFL games. I saw a table by Stanford Wong in his book "Sharp Sports Betting" that listed out the historical percentages of a favorite winning by a certain line. Does anyone know what it is for this scenario?

If you bet normal vig (-110) you are going to win $180 for every middle and you will lose $10 for every non-middle. You would have to win this middle once every 18 games or 5.6% of the time in order to make money in the long run.

The number 10 hits 6% in the NFL so going thru the 10 with -110 juice both sides is a profitable middle. Same goes for 3 (10% or so), 7, and 14 in NFL. But you are right reduced juice helps a ton on your bottom line.

 

[mj23]

The number 10 hits 6% in the NFL so going thru the 10 with -110 juice both sides is a profitable middle. Same goes for 3 (10% or so), 7, and 14 in NFL. But you are right reduced juice helps a ton on your bottom line.

3 in the NFL hits about 18% of the time.

 

[Iceman]

3 in the NFL hits about 18% of the time.

the chart I have is 11%. But mine is a push chart meaning 11% of the games that are lined at -3 hit at 3. Yours might be all games (dog or fav)

 

[mj23]

the chart I have is 11%. But mine is a push chart meaning 11% of the games that are lined at -3 hit at 3. Yours might be all games (dog or fav)

Im almost + it is some where between 17-18. How bout MD. tonight my best bet of day !!

 

[goodcall]

the chart I have is 11%. But mine is a push chart meaning 11% of the games that are lined at -3 hit at 3. Yours might be all games (dog or fav)

I have 14%:ughhh:

 

[Iceman]

Im almost + it is some where between 17-18. How bout MD. tonight my best bet of day !!

I have made a killing (mostly off locals and taking leads) that don't respect the 3 in the NFL. Probably my biggest moneymaker so far this year in NFL is when the game is -3 and my local has 3.5 or 4 (or vice versa). I just bet blindly with local and grab that valuable half point. It changes a whole bunch of losses to wins.

I have Maryland +5.5 so I am with you. :toast:

 

[Iceman]

actually a bet of -3 (-110) and +3.5 (-110) is profitable. Alot of people dont know that (NFL only).