Fh what would you guess the long term results would be at matchbook of simply taking the teams that have +108 vigs or higher, and betting those games straight across the board.
If only 45% hit, you would STILL be up. My guess is you would hit atleast 48%
After the dust settles do you think the team with a HIGH + vig is really less likely to cover?
If only 45% hit, you would STILL be up. My guess is you would hit atleast 48%
After the dust settles do you think the team with a HIGH + vig is really less likely to cover?
Not that easy,
why not?
one has to find the value overlays in relation to what other books are displaying.
maybe you SHOULD, but you wouldn't HAVE to.
I am not explaining this very well (imagine that).
If I simply went to matchbook, and took spread/teams where I got a high vig. (+108 or higher), I would in theory only need to win 45% of the time to end up ahead.
Do you think 45% or higher of the bets WOULD win?
I am not talking about laying off, or anything. Buy the HIGH vigs and hope to hit 45%.
Possible?
why not?
one has to find the value overlays in relation to what other books are displaying.
maybe you SHOULD, but you wouldn't HAVE to.
I am not explaining this very well (imagine that).
If I simply went to matchbook, and took spread/teams where I got a high vig. (+108 or higher), I would in theory only need to win 45% of the time to end up ahead.
Do you think 45% or higher of the bets WOULD win?
I am not talking about laying off, or anything. Buy the HIGH vigs and hope to hit 45%.
Possible?
I was kinda taking the 2% into account.
I guess I am looking at it this way. A high vig of +108 means the PUBLIC thinks the line is a little to high/low. Well first off WTF does the public know? But let's assume that in 52% of cases they are correct.... that STILL leaves 48% winners at a +106 (after the 2% commish).
I think a person could chug along at that rate....
I guess my question broken down into it's simplest form is this = Do you think that at least 45% of teams in all sports at matchbook cover the spread when the vig is 108 or higher?
I guess I am looking at it this way. A high vig of +108 means the PUBLIC thinks the line is a little to high/low. Well first off WTF does the public know? But let's assume that in 52% of cases they are correct.... that STILL leaves 48% winners at a +106 (after the 2% commish).
I think a person could chug along at that rate....
I guess my question broken down into it's simplest form is this = Do you think that at least 45% of teams in all sports at matchbook cover the spread when the vig is 108 or higher?
What the hell you guys doing? Can't you wait to a guy gets home and settles in before you talk about crap like this. You know I love this kind of stuff.
Boat,
Put your seatbelt on beacause the next hour will make the past 10 hours seem like a walk in the park. This is where it can interesting, espicially in college hoops.
Boat,
Put your seatbelt on beacause the next hour will make the past 10 hours seem like a walk in the park. This is where it can interesting, espicially in college hoops.
School me.
I love numbers......
Like I have stated, I have only been doing this for 6 weeks, and have gotten stupid lucky. No way in he11 that continues, and I know that.
I would rather learn how to chug along making 2-3% a week, then throwing darts at a board every week and watching everygame from the edge of my seat, hoping some freshman doesn't fruck up.
Ice what do you think of simply betting on +108 vigs or higher and wanting atleast 45% of the games to hit?
I love numbers......
Like I have stated, I have only been doing this for 6 weeks, and have gotten stupid lucky. No way in he11 that continues, and I know that.
I would rather learn how to chug along making 2-3% a week, then throwing darts at a board every week and watching everygame from the edge of my seat, hoping some freshman doesn't fruck up.
Ice what do you think of simply betting on +108 vigs or higher and wanting atleast 45% of the games to hit?
Fish,
embarassingly enough I still very rarely ever use Matchbook as most of hoops plays are middles. I used Mansion quite a bit for baseball to scalp and ALWAYS lost there and football seemed useless so I gave up on the exchanges except for the occasional few times I have made a bet at Matchbook on your reccomendation.
2 questions. Is Matchbook at all useful for middling hoops games because to me it seems like it is more a place to scalp as they will have the OLD number but just rearrange the juice on it not really helping middle oppurtunities and would you say the line moves their are slower than most top notch books?
I have investigated them quite a bit and realistically with the guarantee money you make scalping these lines at Matchbook,that are middles at other books it is probalbly better long term to just scalp, but that is hard to do that when you can hit 1 big middle and it looks so good on your bottom line but actually is really no better than 20 scalps at MB (hope you understood that).
embarassingly enough I still very rarely ever use Matchbook as most of hoops plays are middles. I used Mansion quite a bit for baseball to scalp and ALWAYS lost there and football seemed useless so I gave up on the exchanges except for the occasional few times I have made a bet at Matchbook on your reccomendation.
2 questions. Is Matchbook at all useful for middling hoops games because to me it seems like it is more a place to scalp as they will have the OLD number but just rearrange the juice on it not really helping middle oppurtunities and would you say the line moves their are slower than most top notch books?
I have investigated them quite a bit and realistically with the guarantee money you make scalping these lines at Matchbook,that are middles at other books it is probalbly better long term to just scalp, but that is hard to do that when you can hit 1 big middle and it looks so good on your bottom line but actually is really no better than 20 scalps at MB (hope you understood that).
My $ at matchbook is made via live betting.
I simply pick who I think will win......if the other team scores first, I JUMP for joy, cuz now right after the score i can buy at a REAL high vig midway thru the 1st qtr. If the team getting the kickoff starts driving, I sell it all back 3 min latter.
I simply pick who I think will win......if the other team scores first, I JUMP for joy, cuz now right after the score i can buy at a REAL high vig midway thru the 1st qtr. If the team getting the kickoff starts driving, I sell it all back 3 min latter.
hno:I would risk 21 dollars to have that bet, ALL DAY LONG..........
lose 21 dollars 5 times, win 100 4 times, and win 690 every once in a while.......
Gotta love it.
Palco you ever hear the story about the old bull and the young bull standing on a hill looking into a valley filled with cows?
lose 21 dollars 5 times, win 100 4 times, and win 690 every once in a while.......
Gotta love it.
Palco you ever hear the story about the old bull and the young bull standing on a hill looking into a valley filled with cows?
boatboatboat said:
I really truly love talking about this stuff (just ask anyone) but the problem is it is primetime right now (hour before games start) so give me a few hours as I am already WAY behind for the day.
My advice is find your niche/style on what KIND of gambler you want to be and then reserach on here, ask questions (and don't feel bad I did), than practice, practice ,practice. I have a job but I find/make time for this, around 4-5 hours a day and I am still learning everyday and most importantly I love it. Like Fish said "this is no get rich quick scheme" I EARN every dolllar I make.
I remember back a few years ago I was telling someone how fascinated I was with numbers and didn't really know what to do about it and then when I found out there were ways to make bets that were, mathmatically speaking "postitive expectation" bets and realized there was a different (right) way to gamble ,I knew I was onto something and I owe alot of what I have learned from Fishhhead and quite a few others here at the RX.
You words are well taken on my part.
I don't want to be the guy always looking for bonus programs at books, asking the paper boy what he thinks about the BIG GAME this weekend, trying to find some silly trend to jump on (4-1 ats when playing on tuesday, on the road).
I like this place.......
tons of info, if a person is willing to let someone who knows more then you, take the lead roll.
I don't want to be the guy always looking for bonus programs at books, asking the paper boy what he thinks about the BIG GAME this weekend, trying to find some silly trend to jump on (4-1 ats when playing on tuesday, on the road).
I like this place.......
tons of info, if a person is willing to let someone who knows more then you, take the lead roll.
