Yea, you can bet every college football game on the board or close to it for $100.00 a pop just because you think you're getting the sharper number, but how about the dude who bets the max on the moneylines? What are the chances his 2 touchdown favorite team loses? Slim to none would be my guess. The risk isnt worth it but to some it is. So the gambler who risks $10,000 to win $3,000 see's the profit more then the risk. Instead of betting the lines, he just bets the better team.
looking at some older numbers here is something to chew on.
between 1981-2000 a study was done where it was found that bettors underestimated the home team. Home teams won by a margin of 3.03 points when the average number that home teams were predicted to win by was 2.67. It gets even worse in the last four weeks of the season where home teams were favored on average only 2.40 points but won on average 4.46 points. In the playoffs home underdogs actually won straight up 14 of 18 times.
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between 1981-1996 there was a paper put out stating that playing the home team in a national focus, specifically MNF and the playoffs produced a winning percentage of 59.2% and if they were a home underdog it was 65.6%
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<CENTER>NFL Bettor Tendencies in Tournament 2001-2002
(19,201 Bet) <TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#000000 width="59%" bgColor=#ffff99 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD></TD><TD width=110># of Bets</TD><TD width=110>Win %</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Favorite</TD><TD align=middle width=110>6,741</TD><TD align=middle width=110>49.1%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Visiting Underdog</TD><TD align=middle width=110>5,270</TD><TD align=middle width=110>50.4%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Visiting Favorite</TD><TD align=middle width=110>4,904</TD><TD align=middle width=110>47.8%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Underdog</TD><TD align=middle width=110>2,286</TD><TD align=middle width=110>57.7%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
basically the above supports the public tendencies, something else to think about. This was conducted using about 200 bettors in a NFL betting tourney. although this was only one season the author, Levit, goes on to claim, in his full paper, that these results are consistent with the last 20 years. He says the reason is obviuosly the bookmakers know the bias and exploit it.
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THE "UNDER" IN THE NFL 1979-2000 (4,589 Games) <TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#000000 width="59%" bgColor=#ffff99 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD></TD><TD width=110>"Under" Win %</TD></TR><TR><TD>All games (average pre-game total = 40.3)</TD><TD align=middle width=110>51.0%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Games with pre-game total of 45.5 or higher</TD><TD align=middle width=110>55.1%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Games with pre-game total of 46.5 or higher</TD><TD align=middle width=110>57.0%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Games with pre-game total of 47.5 or higher</TD><TD align=middle width=110>58.7%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
betting the under in all games right off the bat gives you a percentage higher then 50%, that in itself is an edge. people love rooting for a score, this is another tendency I was able to take advantage of last year when the dogs were getting their asses kicked.
-----------------------------------
bonuses, contest, shopping for lines and juice, money managment, it is all said over and over again, but it obviously cannot be said enough, because day after day people make the same decisions that have cost them in the past. OH YEAH IF MOST PEOPLE MAKE MISTAKES TIME AFTER TIME, I SAY FADE THEM. Fading the public is what all this above means to me, or else any of what I posted above would not be above 52% time after time, books would get alot sharper if the above was actually helping bettors out.
some of what I wrote above was taken from sportsinsights.com.
between 1981-2000 a study was done where it was found that bettors underestimated the home team. Home teams won by a margin of 3.03 points when the average number that home teams were predicted to win by was 2.67. It gets even worse in the last four weeks of the season where home teams were favored on average only 2.40 points but won on average 4.46 points. In the playoffs home underdogs actually won straight up 14 of 18 times.
----------------------------------------
between 1981-1996 there was a paper put out stating that playing the home team in a national focus, specifically MNF and the playoffs produced a winning percentage of 59.2% and if they were a home underdog it was 65.6%
-----------------------------------------
<CENTER>NFL Bettor Tendencies in Tournament 2001-2002
(19,201 Bet) <TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#000000 width="59%" bgColor=#ffff99 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD></TD><TD width=110># of Bets</TD><TD width=110>Win %</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Favorite</TD><TD align=middle width=110>6,741</TD><TD align=middle width=110>49.1%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Visiting Underdog</TD><TD align=middle width=110>5,270</TD><TD align=middle width=110>50.4%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Visiting Favorite</TD><TD align=middle width=110>4,904</TD><TD align=middle width=110>47.8%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Underdog</TD><TD align=middle width=110>2,286</TD><TD align=middle width=110>57.7%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
basically the above supports the public tendencies, something else to think about. This was conducted using about 200 bettors in a NFL betting tourney. although this was only one season the author, Levit, goes on to claim, in his full paper, that these results are consistent with the last 20 years. He says the reason is obviuosly the bookmakers know the bias and exploit it.
------------------------------------------
THE "UNDER" IN THE NFL 1979-2000 (4,589 Games) <TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#000000 width="59%" bgColor=#ffff99 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD></TD><TD width=110>"Under" Win %</TD></TR><TR><TD>All games (average pre-game total = 40.3)</TD><TD align=middle width=110>51.0%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Games with pre-game total of 45.5 or higher</TD><TD align=middle width=110>55.1%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Games with pre-game total of 46.5 or higher</TD><TD align=middle width=110>57.0%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Games with pre-game total of 47.5 or higher</TD><TD align=middle width=110>58.7%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
betting the under in all games right off the bat gives you a percentage higher then 50%, that in itself is an edge. people love rooting for a score, this is another tendency I was able to take advantage of last year when the dogs were getting their asses kicked.
-----------------------------------
bonuses, contest, shopping for lines and juice, money managment, it is all said over and over again, but it obviously cannot be said enough, because day after day people make the same decisions that have cost them in the past. OH YEAH IF MOST PEOPLE MAKE MISTAKES TIME AFTER TIME, I SAY FADE THEM. Fading the public is what all this above means to me, or else any of what I posted above would not be above 52% time after time, books would get alot sharper if the above was actually helping bettors out.
some of what I wrote above was taken from sportsinsights.com.
Apologies if this one has been mentioned already:
Football 2nd Half betting:
Heavy underdog is out-playing, leading heavy fave-- usually lines are put up favoring the so-far outplayed team to adjust & come back...& the tendency on the part of the bettor is to want to come back w/ a hedge; but the better profit play is to double up on the underdog to continue its dominating play.
Football 2nd Half betting:
Heavy underdog is out-playing, leading heavy fave-- usually lines are put up favoring the so-far outplayed team to adjust & come back...& the tendency on the part of the bettor is to want to come back w/ a hedge; but the better profit play is to double up on the underdog to continue its dominating play.
charleslanger said:
You can apply this to basketball also. Last night was a perfect example of this.
La Sparks were 10.5 favorites against Silver Stars. They were down by 12 at the half and bookies posted up a -9 for the 2nd half line. They lose the game by 20 something points. It was like stealing candy from a baby.
wtf - question about post from Insiders....
<<#1 Play with Sleepy Locals that DONT have the Don Best Screen, no matter how small they might be. This has worked for many years for me.
Always have people looking for New outs, that are NOT sharp>>
I'm sorry, I am still somewhat of a novice. I do speak good english, and am somewhat versed on the phrases used in sports betting. But I BASICALLY DO NOT UNDERSTAND A SINGLE THING IN THIS POST. can someone help ?
<<
#1 Play with Sleepy Locals that DONT have the Don Best Screen, no matter how small they might be. This has worked for many years for me.
Always have people looking for New outs, that are NOT sharp>>
:drink:
<<#1 Play with Sleepy Locals that DONT have the Don Best Screen, no matter how small they might be. This has worked for many years for me.
Always have people looking for New outs, that are NOT sharp>>
I'm sorry, I am still somewhat of a novice. I do speak good english, and am somewhat versed on the phrases used in sports betting. But I BASICALLY DO NOT UNDERSTAND A SINGLE THING IN THIS POST. can someone help ?
<<
#1 Play with Sleepy Locals that DONT have the Don Best Screen, no matter how small they might be. This has worked for many years for me.
Always have people looking for New outs, that are NOT sharp>>
:drink: 
old_school23 said:<<#1 Play with Sleepy Locals that DONT have the Don Best Screen, no matter how small they might be. This has worked for many years for me.
Always have people looking for New outs, that are NOT sharp>>
I'm sorry, I am still somewhat of a novice. I do speak good english, and am somewhat versed on the phrases used in sports betting. But I BASICALLY DO NOT UNDERSTAND A SINGLE THING IN THIS POST. can someone help ?
<<
#1 Play with Sleepy Locals that DONT have the Don Best Screen, no matter how small they might be. This has worked for many years for me.
Always have people looking for New outs, that are NOT sharp>>
Play with local bookies who are slow to move the lines compared to offshore books and sharp locals. Make sure these books do not have the Don Best Screen (which shows real-time line movements by offshore books) no matter how small they might be. Always have people looking for new bookies who are slow to adjust their lines.
:howdy:
<TABLE class=tborder id=post2998388 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>wildemu<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_2998388", true); </SCRIPT>
I'm the best the NBA has to offer
Join Date: Jan 2005
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Posts: 1,356
</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_2998388><!-- icon and title -->
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by charleslanger
Football 2nd Half betting:
Heavy underdog is out-playing, leading heavy fave-- usually lines are put up favoring the so-far outplayed team to adjust & come back...& the tendency on the part of the bettor is to want to come back w/ a hedge; but the better profit play is to double up on the underdog to continue its dominating play.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
You can apply this to basketball also. Last night was a perfect example of this.
La Sparks were 10.5 favorites against Silver Stars. They were down by 12 at the half and bookies posted up a -9 for the 2nd half line. They lose the game by 20 something points. It was like stealing candy from a baby.
<!-- / message --></TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt2>
</TD><TD class=alt1 align=right><!-- controls --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Thank you:toast:
I'm the best the NBA has to offer
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Jersey
Posts: 1,356
</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_2998388><!-- icon and title -->
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by charleslanger
Football 2nd Half betting:
Heavy underdog is out-playing, leading heavy fave-- usually lines are put up favoring the so-far outplayed team to adjust & come back...& the tendency on the part of the bettor is to want to come back w/ a hedge; but the better profit play is to double up on the underdog to continue its dominating play.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
You can apply this to basketball also. Last night was a perfect example of this.
La Sparks were 10.5 favorites against Silver Stars. They were down by 12 at the half and bookies posted up a -9 for the 2nd half line. They lose the game by 20 something points. It was like stealing candy from a baby.
<!-- / message --></TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt2>
</TD><TD class=alt1 align=right><!-- controls --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Thank you:toast:
