looking at some older numbers here is something to chew on.
between 1981-2000 a study was done where it was found that bettors underestimated the home team. Home teams won by a margin of 3.03 points when the average number that home teams were predicted to win by was 2.67. It gets even worse in the last four weeks of the season where home teams were favored on average only 2.40 points but won on average 4.46 points. In the playoffs home underdogs actually won straight up 14 of 18 times.
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between 1981-1996 there was a paper put out stating that playing the home team in a national focus, specifically MNF and the playoffs produced a winning percentage of 59.2% and if they were a home underdog it was 65.6%
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<CENTER>NFL Bettor Tendencies in Tournament 2001-2002
(19,201 Bet) <TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#000000 width="59%" bgColor=#ffff99 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD></TD><TD width=110># of Bets</TD><TD width=110>Win %</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Favorite</TD><TD align=middle width=110>6,741</TD><TD align=middle width=110>49.1%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Visiting Underdog</TD><TD align=middle width=110>5,270</TD><TD align=middle width=110>50.4%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Visiting Favorite</TD><TD align=middle width=110>4,904</TD><TD align=middle width=110>47.8%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Underdog</TD><TD align=middle width=110>2,286</TD><TD align=middle width=110>57.7%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
basically the above supports the public tendencies, something else to think about. This was conducted using about 200 bettors in a NFL betting tourney. although this was only one season the author, Levit, goes on to claim, in his full paper, that these results are consistent with the last 20 years. He says the reason is obviuosly the bookmakers know the bias and exploit it.
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THE "UNDER" IN THE NFL 1979-2000 (4,589 Games) <TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#000000 width="59%" bgColor=#ffff99 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD></TD><TD width=110>"Under" Win %</TD></TR><TR><TD>All games (average pre-game total = 40.3)</TD><TD align=middle width=110>51.0%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Games with pre-game total of 45.5 or higher</TD><TD align=middle width=110>55.1%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Games with pre-game total of 46.5 or higher</TD><TD align=middle width=110>57.0%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Games with pre-game total of 47.5 or higher</TD><TD align=middle width=110>58.7%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
betting the under in all games right off the bat gives you a percentage higher then 50%, that in itself is an edge. people love rooting for a score, this is another tendency I was able to take advantage of last year when the dogs were getting their asses kicked.
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bonuses, contest, shopping for lines and juice, money managment, it is all said over and over again, but it obviously cannot be said enough, because day after day people make the same decisions that have cost them in the past. OH YEAH IF MOST PEOPLE MAKE MISTAKES TIME AFTER TIME, I SAY FADE THEM. Fading the public is what all this above means to me, or else any of what I posted above would not be above 52% time after time, books would get alot sharper if the above was actually helping bettors out.
some of what I wrote above was taken from sportsinsights.com.