I am taking under 9 in Boston Wednesday. It is a scary bet knowing that Boston and Texas scored 22 Tuesday with Boston almost doubling up the game total. I believe that Tuesday game was just one of those games where everything goes the hitters way. Ogando had a biceps tendinitis injury but according to his team doctors he is ready to pitch Wednesday after being on the DL for more than 2 weeks. He is bringing his 4-2 record and ERA of 3.08 into this game. His ERA is 2.52 in his last 13 starts. John Lackey is having a time of his life right now, with only 3 earned runs allowed in last 3 starts (19 innings) and 3 straight quality starts at home allowing 2 earned runs in 20 innings. Under 9 is my play.
Hudson is really struggling on the road this season, especially in last 5 starts (0-4, team record 0-5) as he allowed 26 er in 24.2 IP (era of 9.50). As for Greinke, he is struggling everywhere as of late, allowing 13 er in 13.1 ip in last 3 starts (era close to 9.00). However, these two are seasoned vets and I expect them to get back on track soon, or at least to pitch well in games like this marquee matchup, played in a pitcher friendly ballpark. Hudson is coming into this game after his best start of the season, when he allowed 1 er and got into the 8th inning for only the 2nd time time this season. Last season he was 3-2, with era of 4.60 thru May and then went 3-1 in June allowing 6 er in 28 innings of work (era of 1.93). As for Greinke, he had two rough starts against Milwaukee and LAA but then went to Colorado and pitched well for 4 innings. He ended up allowing 4 runs in that game but at least he got into the 6th inning in that hitter friendly ballpark. Two of his worst three starts this season came in two of the most hitter friendly ballparks in MLB (Milwaukee and Colorado). He is 2-0 at home this season with era of 2.87. Atlanta is making a trip across the country after their longest home stretch so far this season (8 games) and LA is probably tired after playing divisional & in-state rivals with no rest in last 10 days. I expect a 3-2 type of game here in a series that saw 7 unders in last 8 meetings.
Under 7
Under 7
My only non winner during this streak (push) came when I picked an over, so be cautious if following because I am going with my 2nd over now.
San Diego and Colorado just barely went over the total yesterday, combining for 22 hits. However, half of those 22 hits (11) were extra base hits, and that is telling me that ball is flying well right now in Colorado. Only one home run in that game, allowed by a reliever, but that number should go up if these two teams keep on hitting the ball hard. Volquez and De La Rosa can dominate at times but they have some shaky numbers against their Friday opposition. Volquez allowed 15 er in 14 ip in last 3 starts against Colorado, and he allowed 1 HR against Colorado in each one of last 6 starts against Rockies. De La Rosa is pitching really well lately but he allowed 25 er in 31.2 ip in last 6 home starts against the Padres. He still won last 5 home starts against San Diego because his offense scored 49 runs in those 5 games. De La Rosa allowed 0 home runs in last 6 starts overall but he allowed 5 home runs in last 5 against SD. San Diego pen pitched 32.1 innings in last 7 Padres games. Colorado scored 10 runs in last 11.1 innings against opponent relievers. Colorado should be able to score early and often against SD, hopefully the Padres will contribute too.The SD/COL series started the 2013 season with 3 unders and just over 8.5 rpg but the over is now 3-1 in last 4 with 10 rpg scored. Over 10.
San Diego and Colorado just barely went over the total yesterday, combining for 22 hits. However, half of those 22 hits (11) were extra base hits, and that is telling me that ball is flying well right now in Colorado. Only one home run in that game, allowed by a reliever, but that number should go up if these two teams keep on hitting the ball hard. Volquez and De La Rosa can dominate at times but they have some shaky numbers against their Friday opposition. Volquez allowed 15 er in 14 ip in last 3 starts against Colorado, and he allowed 1 HR against Colorado in each one of last 6 starts against Rockies. De La Rosa is pitching really well lately but he allowed 25 er in 31.2 ip in last 6 home starts against the Padres. He still won last 5 home starts against San Diego because his offense scored 49 runs in those 5 games. De La Rosa allowed 0 home runs in last 6 starts overall but he allowed 5 home runs in last 5 against SD. San Diego pen pitched 32.1 innings in last 7 Padres games. Colorado scored 10 runs in last 11.1 innings against opponent relievers. Colorado should be able to score early and often against SD, hopefully the Padres will contribute too.The SD/COL series started the 2013 season with 3 unders and just over 8.5 rpg but the over is now 3-1 in last 4 with 10 rpg scored. Over 10.
Hellickson has had some mixed results against the orioles. He dominated them 20 days ago up until the 8th inning when thy chased him out of game with a late surge. It was a crazy game with 22 runs scored and those are not happening all that often. Baltimore is cold offensively now with only 4 runs scored in last 2 games, with no home runs in those games and only 2 hits yesterday. Tampa isn't any hotter with only 8 runs in last 4 games. They will face Gausman, a youngster who had a solid game the last time we saw him. He was highly anticipated but failed to deliver in his first two starts. The Orioles management was patient with him and he delivered in his third start. Barksdale is the HPU in this game and he is an UNDER pitcher despite his OU record that stands at 7-5 this season. His OU record in previous three seasons was 35-52, so I expect his numbers to go down as the season goes on.
UNDER 8.5
UNDER 8.5
