Series info from Raymond
series info
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 22
Philadelphia at St. Louis (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Phillies’ have heated up (6-4, +$125), moving close to the Mets in the NL East race, and they are poised for a big weekend at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals continue to flounder well below .500, and they’ve been big money-burners in this ballpark (-$710). The Phillies have cleaned up against righthanders this year (27-17, +$745 with 5.6 runs per game) and the St. Louis rotation is currently devoid of southpaws. We expect to be using the visitor throughout the weekend, and we’ll only back off if the home team finds a lefty to send to the mound. BEST BET: Phillies vs. righthanders.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago W. Sox (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Inter-league play has not been going well for the beleaguered White Sox (only 3-9, -$610 so far). They’ve got the weakest hitting team in the majors (.231 team BA, averaging just 3.8 runs per game) so their prospects vs. their hometown rival are not promising, given the outstanding work by Cub starters in recent days (2.73 ERA last 10). The Cubs have excellent numbers vs. righthanders in road games (+$410 with 5.5 runs per game), and the White Sox starters they are likely to face this weekend have not looked very sharp in recent outings. BEST BET: Cubs vs. righthanders.
Minnesota at Florida (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Marlins have kept reasonably close to .500 and thanks to the N.Y. Mets’ recent woes, they aren’t in too bad shape as the first half of the season begins to wind down. The anticipated return of Josh Johnson to the rotation could be just what they need to put together a decent surge in the second half. But they have lost money here at Dolphin Stadium (-$565) so caution is advised. The Twins are within striking distance in the competitive AL Central, but they are still way down for the year (-$625) and none of their starters other than Santana has looked particularly sharp. BEST BET: None.
Cleveland at Washington (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Tribe has given back a substantial chunk of the profits they amassed in April & May, as they suffer through their worst downward spiral of the season (5-6, -$380 in their last 11 games). The Nationals, to everyone’s surprise, have emerged as the mot profitable team in the NL (+$1195), cashing in huge tickets over the past couple of weeks. They’ve done their best work at RFK vs. lefties (4.6 runs per game) and there is certainly no shortage of southpaws in the Indians’ rotation. BEST BET: Nationals vs. lefthanders.
Colorado at Toronto (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Rockies have moved over the .500 level and have proved to be a formidable opponent in these inter-league contests (7-5, +$375). They are poised for a big weekend at Rogers Centre vs. a Toronto team that could be overpriced in these contests. The Blue Jays have had a terrible time with righthanders this year (only 20-27, -$960 so far) and with Jeff Francis unlikely to take a turn, they’ll have their hands full with the Colorado starters. The Rockies, on the other hand, have dominated righthanders this year (+$1255), and the Toronto rotation is currently without a lefthander. Grab those prices on the road team. BEST BET: Rockies when righty meets righty.
L.A. Dodgers at Tampa Bay (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Devil Rays have a decent offense (.263 team BA) but James Shields won’t be on the mound this weekend, and he’s the only reason that this team’s league high team ERA (5.67) isn’t higher. Scott Kazmir is a capable hurler, but the Dodgers do their best work against lefthanders (14-5, +$760 with 5.2 runs per game) so the road team will be hard to pass up when he takes his turn. We’ll look for other spots where we can use this visitor, but LA’s road numbers vs. righthanders are not encouraging (-$505 with 3.6 runs per game) so caution is advised. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. Kazmir.
Oakland at N.Y. Mets (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Mets are lead in the NL East is rapidly evaporating (2-8, -$585 last 10 days with only 3.7 runs per game and a fat 7.05 ERA among starters), so they are hosting the Athletics at the worst possible time. Oakland has the best pitching staff in MLB right now (3.30 team ERA) and they’ve been solid on the road all year (18-14, +$600). The Mets have lost a bundle here at Shea Stadium (-$695) and when you consider that they’ll still be favored or at worst pick ‘em in these games, the visitor is pretty difficult to pass up. A good chance for Oakland to take 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Athletics in all games.
Detroit at Atlanta (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Tigers stumbled a bit towards the end of May, but they’ve gotten themselves back on track (6-4, +$125 last 10 days with 6.7 runs per game), and appear poised to topple the Indians from the top slot in the AL Central. They’ve done well against some tough inter-league opponents (8-4, +$325), and they’ve been a terrific value in road games thus far (21-15, +$680 with 6.0 runs per game). The Braves are losing money at Turner Field, and their numbers vs. lefthanders this year are just awful (14-18, -$600 with 3.8 runs per game). We’ll stick with the Detroit southpaws this weekend. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Braves.
Kansas City at Milwaukee (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Royals still have lots of weaknesses, but they’ve turned a nice profit in road games vs. righthanders (+$590) and could be a decent underdog value here at Miller Park. And with Chris Capuano now on the DL, they won’t be taking on any lefties unless the Brewers bring one up. Lay off anytime KC sends a southpaw to the mound (Brewers +$610 at home vs. lefties), otherwise the visitor looks like the way to go. BEST BET: Royals when righty meets righty.
Houston at Texas (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
They’ve got a pair of bad baseball teams in Texas in 2007 (Rangers only 26-43, -$1225 . . . Astros 30-39, -$1325) so it’s hard to get a decent read on this. Statistically, Houston looks like they should be doing much better (.255 team BA, 4.36 ERA, roughly average for the NL this year), but the Rangers are a complete disaster (.255 BA, 5.50 ERA, 2nd worst in the AL in both departments). If we see a price we like we’ll consider taking a shot with the visitor, but we prefer to wait until game day before we jump in. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Arizona (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Orioles were in 2nd place in the AL East not long ago, but they’ve fallen to the back of the pack (29-40, -$1345) and they’ll have a tough time here at Chase Field taking on a formidable Arizona squad. The home team is 18--9 (+$775) against righthanders in this ballpark and can improve those numbers, but watch out for Jeremy Guthrie (1.71 ERA in nine starts) if he happens to get a start. BEST BET: Diamondbacks vs. all righthanders except Guthrie.
Boston at San Diego (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Red Sox have posted very strong numbers vs. righties on the road this season (17-6, +$1290) so it will be interesting to see how they fare against the best pitching staff in baseball (SD 2.92) one that boasts some of the finest righthanders in MLB today. The Padres have lost money vs. righthanders here at Petco Park in night games (-$340 with 3.5 runs per game), so we’ll grab the short prices on the Bosox here. BEST BET: Red Sox when righty meets righty.
Cincinnati at Seattle (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Mariners have emerged as serious contenders in the competitive AL West, but their pitching has struggled in recent days (6.08 ERA among starters last 10) so caution is advised. We’d consider taking them if the Reds send a southpaw to the hill (Seattle 13-5, +$1095 vs. lefties this year), but that might not happen. The Reds have the worst record in the NL right now (27-43, -$1875) and there is nothing to recommend them here at Safeco. BEST BET: None.
Pittsburgh at L.A. Angels (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Pirates may not be in the same class as the first place Angels, but there might have been some opportunities to use them as underdogs if Maholm and Gorzelanny were going to be available (Angels -$120 vs. lefties at home with 4.4 runs per game vs. southpaws overall). But it appears likely that they’ll both miss this series, and given LA’s stellar performance vs. righthanders in this ballpark (19-5, +$1110), it’s worth it to take the home team in that situation at any price. BEST BET: Angels vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Yankees at San Francisco (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Yankees are the hottest team in baseball right now (9-1, +$730 last 10 days with 7.4 runs per game and a 3.87 ERA among starters), and while their overall numbers are still pretty bad, they are a lot better than they were. The Giants have dropped into last place in the NL West, and they’ve lost money vs. righthanders here at ATT PARk (-$545). We’ll take a shot with Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina, who have both looked very sharp in their most recent outings (1.72 & 1.98 ERA’s respectively) and who are slated to take turns in this series. BEST BET: Wang/Mussina.
Vegas Experts
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, June 22nd, 8:10 P.M. EDT
Phillies a .500 road team on the season, the Cards a sub-.500 team at home. PHILADELPHIA is 27-16 against the money line in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons and 52-34 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 3 seasons. MOYER is 106-46 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record). ST LOUIS is 11-19 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.
Play on: Philadelphia
Big Al's
3 Game Card
Minnesota
San Francisco
Tigers/Braves 'over' the total
Brandon Lang
10 DIME
Astros
Reds
Angels -1.5
5 DIME
Phillies
A's
Padres
The Wunderdog
Game: Oakland at N Y Mets (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Oakland +133
Hard to believe that the Mets are just 3-13 in their last 16 games, but the offense has failed them throughout the month of June. The Mets’ bats have produced more than three runs in just 4 of the last 16 games and that's what losing streaks are made of. It isn't just the offense, the Mets pitching has allowed four or more runs in 13 of the last 16 as well so it is easy to see why they are struggling to find the win column. The fact is that they have given up 6+ runs in 7 of the past 11 games. Oakland will come in having won 13 of their last 18, and kills LHP. They are currently among the best at 14-8, and they haven't been beating the soft LHP, they have beaten all the good ones. They average 5.3-runs per game (RPG) against LHP, which is over a run per game more than they do against RHP. They have taken down Santana, Lee, Sabathia, Pettitte, Bedard and Zito twice each. They managed 57 runs in those 8 games, against some of the top LHP in the league. Tom Glavine is eit!
her reaching the end, or is in a miserable slump. Glavine has been touched off for 36 hits in his last 22 innings, resulting in 21 earned runs and a struggling Mets’ pen has tacked on 12 more runs over the last 4 as well. Glavine has not had a game this season where he has struck-out more than five hitters - a career first, but also a sign his stuff and command is on the decline. We like the A's to get the win over the struggling Mets.
Hondo
10 units: Chicago Cubs
Gator
70% Situations
Play Under MLB road teams when the total is 9 to 9.5 and a team that has gone 15 straight games with one or less errors, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is >= 2.000 his last 5 starts.
(41-12 since 1997.) (77.4%)
PLAY: Kansas City / Milwaukee UNDER 9.5 (+100)
Dave Cokin
(911) LA Dodgers
(912) TAM Devil Rays
Take "(911) LA Dodgers"
Andy Sonnanstine has risen through the Tampa Bay farm system in a hurry, and he's been a big winner at each successive level. He's got the stuff to be a solid big leaguer as well, but right now he's going through some growing pains. Sonnanstine's breaking ball occasionally hangs in the center of the strike zone, and that's where he's gotten in trouble so far. The rookie is in tough here as he's facing Derek Lowe, who's hot right now and has owned the D-Rays throughout his career. Off a good series in Toronto, I like the Dodgers to open their weekend set in Tampa with a win as well.
Jim Feist
911) LA Dodgers
(912) TAM Devil Rays
Take "(911) LA Dodgers"
With injury problems to the rotation, LA starter Derek Lowe has stepped up, with a 2.28 ERA the last three starts. Tampa Bay is a small park, but Lowe throws a hard sinker, something that will help him here. He's also 9-3 with a 3.05 career ERA against the Devil Rays. Tampa Bay starter Andy Sonnanstine is one of several kids they've turned to to try and find a No. 3, 4, or 5 starter. He has a 7.11 ERA giving up 6 HRs in 19 innings. Play the Dodgers!
Mighty ! Quinn
Chicago Cubs
Friday Horse Racing Spot Selection
SPOT PLAYS
For Friday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (2nd) Aloma's Rose, 10-1
(4th) Twixt, 6-1
Belmont Park (1st) Emerging Spirit, 8-1
(7th) Blues Street, 3-1
Calder Race Course (4th) Genuine Diamond, 4-1
(10th) Majestic Flame, 6-1
Canterbury Park (1st) Sir Reddington, 6-1
(4th) Miswaki's Best, 5-1
Charles Town (3rd) Crown Barb, 7-2
(7th) Ministers Pic, 10-1
Churchill Downs (2nd) That's a Secret, 5-1
(9th) Nola Star, 7-2
Colonial Downs (3rd) Stonerun, 3-1
(7th) Matt Blanc (Ire), 6-1
Emerald Downs (1st) Simonis, 4-1
(5th) Our Singing Boy, 8-1
Evangeline Downs (3rd) Duclaw, 3-1
(6th) Brice's Rocket, 8-1
Finger Lakes (4th) Command Center, 3-1
(7th) Lake Isle Drive, 5-1
Hollywood Park (4th) Wizzen Mizzen, 3-1
(6th) Buck Basolo, 5-1
Indiana Downs (1st) Zanna, 9-2
(7th) Favorite Lily Ann, 4-1
Lone Star Park (4th) Abbey Court, 6-1
(7th) Rare Flyer, 9-2
Louisiana Downs (2nd) My Foriels On, 7-2
(8th) Prince Satchel, 8-1
Monmouth Park (1st) Sharp, 6-1
(5th) Flash of Victory, 4-1
Mountaineer (2nd) Classic Berti, 9-2
(6th) Mighty Fortress, 8-1
Northlands (1st) Miles From Dublin, 7-2
(8th) Mr Magic, 9-2
Penn National (6th) Wild Kipper, 7-2
(9th) Glow of Success, 9-2
Prairie Meadows (3rd) Bay Lover, 7-2
(6th) Queen Archie, 7-2
River Downs (1st) Byars Beware, 4-1
(3rd) Prayer Warrior, 8-1
Thistledown (2nd) Chrome, 4-1
(4th) Bear Trick, 8-1
Woodbine (5th) Jade's a Pleasure, 4-1
(9th) Mon Joli, 4-1
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Friday, June 22
RACE ONE
ITSALLGREEKTOU has been ascending the class ladder while winning her last two starts for Paul Aguirre. Her sharpness should allow her to win again despite the surface switch and move into allowance company. NEWPORT TOPPER was a close third to course specialist Charmin Dot over the Hollywood Park turf last time out. 'TOPPER should establish a good position early. CHARM M BROAD moves from turf to Cushion and from route to sprint. Her feather weight of 105 might allow her to make the early running.
RACE TWO
MARQZ MELODY lost narrowly as the favorite sprinting and now tries two turns for Michael Machowsky. 'MELODY's opposition is exceptionally weak tonight and she should earn that elusive diploma. VEILS DE FLEUR made a middle move before throwing in the towel under these conditions May 31. Solis stays with her and she should hold on better in this spot. QUEENOFTHEBRAHMS closed strongly, but way too late in her California debut. If she can stay in touch with the field early, she could register a mild surprise.
RACE THREE
CONCLAVE lost a tough decision in his first start for Jack Carava May 30 but should avenge that loss tonight. He scratched Wednesday in favor of this spot. HOLY LARK was claimed a week ago by Barry Abrams. He was a fair second that day and now elevates several floors into $32,000 company. TOM WEST swung out entering the stretch but lost his punch late. He's come back to work fast since that race and Talamo stays.
RACE FOUR
WIZZEN MIZZEN dueled from the inside, something not recommended for a first time starter, before tiring in deep stretch. The experience, switch to the outside post, and a bullet 6-panel work June 17 all add up to victory. STOP THE HUMOR has had several close calls in her nine races, but is still a maiden. She probably has far less improvement in her than the top choice. KATORI is the X-factor. A beginner by Dixie Union, KATORI has a top trainer (Doug O'Neill), top rider (Michael Baze) and the drills to have a say in the outcome.
RACE FIVE
The last time HOLLY'S GOLD competed at this class level, she came away with a daylight victory. Not that she hasn't been competitive against better, but this is her winning tag. CELTIC WAY double drops off a claim, rarely a good sign. When she's healthy, she's better than these. LESLIE LILL opened up a commanding lead for bug boy Tom Foley before giving it up late. Foley stays aboard and similar tactics will be used tonight.
RACE SIX
BRIAN THE BOLD telegraphed his talent with super effort first time out. The Paddy Gallagher raced greenly early, was last at the quarter pole, then made up almost 10 lengths in the stretch to just miss. His price will be much shorter than the 32-1 he went off last time. BUCK BASOLO showed surprising speed in his second start to finish a nose back of 'BRIAN. He'll be in the thick of the battle throughout. THE IVAN SHOW finished well in his first start in five months. This one made his first appearance in the San Miguel Stakes, indicating his connections are high on him.
RACE SEVEN
Six old pros, who have combined for 42 victories, do battle in tonight's feature. WIND WATER comes off a game victory in which he set brisk fractions then held off BROOKER for a half-length score. He can take down his 12th career win for the John Sadler, Corey Nakatani team. BROOKER was claimed out of his last start after coming up a tad short against 'WIND. Off his best race, he could turn the tables. AREYOUTALKINTOME is a former stakes winner who ventures into the claiming ranks. He's not what he once was, but can still be effective at this level.
RACE EIGHT
NEUTRALITY has blown a lot of chances (10), but this will be only her second start at the bottom. In her first, she closed strongly but fell a length short to Delphia. On sheer ability, NEUTRALITY finally hits paydirt tonight. HUNSLEY BUNSLEY seems the only runner capable of upsetting the favorite. She flashed improved zip last time and now adds blinkers and Espinoza. MAD DUCK appears to be the best of the others. She finished with interest after a sluggish start and now gets an equipment change.
Best Bet-MARQZ MELODY (2)
__________________
Belmont
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Storm Boot Gold (1st race)
First Race
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1. Storm Boot Gold 2. Drizzly 3. Emerging Spirit
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STORM BOOT GOLD launched a three-race winning streak here last year off a turf-to-dirt switch, and looks like the main speed as he drops sharply in class; chased Grade 1 winner Commentator lone dirt start of current form cycle. DRIZZLY was away nearly three months, but picked up right where he left off in terms of figures; consistent deep closer needs WOOD WINNER to take it to Storm Boot Gold early. EMERGING SPIRIT, with 20 seconds and thirds from 41 lifetime starts, is a likely candidate to round out exactas & trifectas.
Second Race
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1. Any Which Way 2. No Lemon 3. Poker God
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ANY WHICH WAY returned from a long layoff with two decent efforts earlier at the meet, notably May 26 comeback forcing an extremely fast pace; probably has to get the best of NO LEMON through the opening fractions. The latter showed improvement first time on dirt; lightly raced colt is drawn just inside the choice, and may be sent from the gate in an effort to maintain position. POKER GOD was close behind Any Which Way when he tried a dirt sprint following a pair of turf routes to begin career; has more speed than he showed, judging from 35.20 workout four days prior, and we might see more of it with blinkers on.
Third Race
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1. Moon's Halo 2. Bound Notebook 3. Aristocrat
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MOON'S HALO drops to available allowance condition after fading through final three-eighths of Grade 2 Churchill Downs Handicap on a drying out sealed track Ky. Derby day; three wins off workouts include both local starts, and a triple-digit Beyer in '07 comeback. BOUND NOTEBOOK comes off a figure of 102 earned in hard-fought decision over odds-on Rondo, who returned to win easily last week; regressed off a similar big-figure performance two back. ARISTOCRAT posted his lifetime top figure here last June when also freshened following an off-the-pace victory at Keeneland in April; took a long time to get through second-level ranks, however, and will find these even tougher to overtake.
Fourth Race
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1. Truth Or Dare 2. Renown 3. Chinsegut Bay
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TRUTH OR DARE reared at the break and spotted the field several lengths as the 8-5 choice in first local start, and recovered to miss second by only 1 1/2 lengths; trouble prone thus far, but stretching out to a mile may help. RENOWN shows several races that are good enough to contend, climaxed by two runner-up finishes earlier this month; stretch threat if he's got another bullet to fire making fourth start in 26 days. CHINSEGUT BAY comes off paired Beyers coinciding with removal of blinkers, a pattern that hints he may be set to improve; should benefit from initial run over this course.
Fifth Race
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1. Skypa 2. Hello Newman 3. First Grandson
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SKYPA moved closer to the leaders through a sharp second quarter in 22.20 seconds, engaged in a prolonged battle for command and settled for the runner-up spot in a game attempt first time over this track; gets an easier pace match-up where he may be able to dictate the tempo. HELLO NEWMAN rallied wide and finished evenly when a clear third behind Skypa second time out; gets off the rail for the first time, after a sharp blowout last week. FIRST GRANDSON would've been second had he not lugged in through stretch of debut on turf; pedigree and good recent workouts indicate he can improve on the main track for very good second-out trainer.
Sixth Race
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1. Special Format 2. Carrs and Stripes 3. Too Much Zip
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SPECIAL FORMAT moves a bit closer in, and stretches out a furlong, after racing wide and greenly in turf sprint from post 11 to begin career; need only improve marginally to rate the edge over CARRS AND STRIPES. The latter is still a maiden after 16 starts, but only her last two off a layoff came on turf, and she was second each time behind 8-5 Off Sweets and odds-on Prom Dance; hard to eliminate in this spot. TOO MUCH ZIP is on a bounce/rebound pattern; has some turf pedigree, and could be dangerous if she can reproduce May 20 comeback figure earned on main track.
Seventh Race
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1. Blazing Dynamo 2. Big Bold Place 3. Chestertown Slew
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Others have run faster figures than BLAZING DYNAMO, but has edged forward with every start, capped by a solid finish for maiden win on this course, and turned in his best workout five days ago; full brother to Blazing Fury (second in 1 1/2-mile Turf Classic) may be the one to appreciate 1 1/4 miles today. BIG BOLD PLACE comes off paired Beyer tops on this course earlier at the meet, the second one vs. Trippis Storm - who was winning third straight off switch to grass, and returned to run a bang-up second in N3X condition Wednesday; like the rest, he's a mystery at this trip. CHESTERTOWN SLEW set the pace to near midstretch of the 1 3/16-mile Saranac at 3, and had Beyered 95-92-91 on this course before he bled through Lasix last out; ensures an honest pace along with OF ALL TIMES and THE CUBAN HAWK.
Eighth Race
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1. Autobahn Girl 2. Mini Sermon 3. Drama Lady
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AUTOBAHN GIRL gets the benefit of the doubt for failing to fire in the Ky. Oaks, and prior to that was in against Acorn winner Cotton Blossom; had never been worse than second prior to that, including wins in all four starts at a mile - three of them around one turn. MINI SERMON was bumped at the break, recovered to duel through a sharp pace and drove clear for an impressive first-level allowance score six weeks ago, so she has had ample recovery time; also capable of rallying from off the pace. DRAMA LADY has moved forward each time out on the figures while stretching out a bit each time, and now turns back to a mile after two solid efforts on this track; nicely drawn outside in a short field.
Ninth Race
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1. Super Nationals 2. Fairway Drive 3. I'ma a Fax
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Top four aren't separated by much off their "A" races on grass. SUPER NATIONALS won this course & distance last year the only time he's dropped from statebred allowances to a restricted claimer; return from layoff in key race at Aqueduct was promising, followed by a regression setting pressured pace. FAIRWAY DRIVE also looks to rebound, after beating non-winners of two claimers with a lifetime best figure, and then stopping as the choice in a statebred allowance. I'MA A FAX is a 7-year-old eligible for non-winners of three lifetime, but nonetheless boasts the best last-out figure, earned in a tougher spot vs. open $35K runners. PULPITEER's last three grass numbers dating back to last July - 79, 80, 76 - indicate he'll be part of the cavalry charge through midstretch; back quickly after sprinting vs. open $35K types last week.
__________________
Calder
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
3 MOMMY'SSTAR, ridden by Rosie Homeister Jr., and trained my her mommy Rosemary Sr., drops a notch after finishing a willing third - beaten 1 1/4 lengths - in her 2-furlong $40K career debut on a sealed sloppy track. 6 BETTER WHIPP drops into the claiming ranks with Lasix added after apparently bleeding when finishing fourth vs. maiden special weight competition. Leading jock Manoel Cruz hops aboard. 7 LUNACAT, an already well-traveled daughter of Deputy Wild Cat drops, turns back, and receives Lasix, after trying 2 furlongs on the Polytrack at Woodbine in her career debut, 2 furlongs at Delaware on May 27, and 4 1/2 furlongs at Woodbine last out.
3-6-7
Race 2 -
7 BLUSHING BAVARIAN, third on the turf here vs. maiden special weight competition on May 19, returns to the lawn after finishing second vs. this caliber of competition in a race moved to a fast main track. 3 DARN SECRET will try the turf again after showing promise in her first journey around 2-turns when she rebounded from a slow start to finish second vs. $25K maidens at a mile on the main track. 4 MABEL SYRUP is stretching out a mile and a sixteenth again (8-0-2-2) after honing her speed when dueling for the lead and finishing second vs. $40K maidens in a 5-furlong turf sprint. 1 HARMONY FOUND gets some class relief after hitting the board in 1 of 5 previous turf races vs. tougher competition.
7-3-4-1
Race 3 -
4 KIN YI should be ready to score after bumping at the start and finishing second in her career debut at this level and distance. Note that trainer Wesley Ward has a strong 34% win average with horses making their second start. 5 HEAR ME should make her presence felt when dropping in for a tag after finishing third & second, respectively, at the distance vs. special weight competition. 7 INDY O. makes her Florida debut with Lasix added after trying 2 furlongs at Woodbine and Delaware before returning to Woodbine and failing to handle 4 1/2 furlongs when she apparently bled.
4-5-7
Race 4 -
8 KRISTALI, who beat this competition by 7-plus lengths on June 3, albeit in a race moved to the main track, returns to the turf (9-1-0-2) after rallying to come within a neck of winning the 12-furlong New York New York here on Belmont Day. 7 HANDSOME SMILE, a productive 15-5-2-0 on this course, hopes to return to the lawn after making a middle move and tiring to finish third behind Kristali and 5 BOGANGLES on June 3. The latter, 7 2-1-1 on the Calder sod, will try to close the gap on Kristali in her second race back from an almost 5-month layoff. 1 SPEED AND HEART, 4 for 10 in the money on the grass, returns after getting mugged at the start and eased in the New York New York.
8-7-5-1
Race 5 -
2 LADY CHARLEEN drops a notch on the maiden scale after recovering from a slow start to finish third behind next-out winner Arealhotlover (Race 2 - Sat.) in a $40K claimer at the distance. 7 R CHARLIE'S ANGEL, a daughter of Indian Charlie, shows 3 local workouts, including a sharp 3-furlong gate work on June 15, in preparation for her career debut. Trainer Wesley Ward, 28% with his 2-year-olds, adds Lasix for this event. 6 EMPRESS KAROLINA is a daughter of Yonaguska that has trained consistently in preparation for her career debut. Trainer Timmy Ritvo adds Lasix and Abel Castellano Jr. to the deal.
2-7-6
Race 6 -
3 OUR LITTLE BUCK should be ready to score at five-eighths of a mile after posting the best last-race speed figure (72) when beaten a neck vs. $16K "three-lifetime" claimers at 5 1/2 furlongs. 6 WESTERN PASTURES drops into this conditioned claimer in the first start since finishing second in a 'key' $16K optional claimer last July that produced next-out winners Cajulena, Sophie's Crown & Blinka's Baby. Trainer Mike McDonald, 3 for 7 (43%) with the longer than 180-day layoff, has apprentice Jermaine Bridgmohan handling the return. 5 GINNY FIZZ makes her first start since she walloped $10K "two-lifetime" claimers on Apr. 27 by 6 1/4 lengths. Leading trainer Kathleen O'Connell teams with leading jock Manoel Cruz.
3-6-5
Race 7 -
4 BRAVE TIGER, a half to Mecke Daughter, who was a Grade 1 winner in South America, debuts for trainer Norm Pointer, who has a 17% win average with his freshman runners. 7 SEAGULL MOON, a son of Migrating Moon, debuts for trainer Christos Gatis with Manoel Cruz named to ride. Tab the tote action for clues about this colt's chances to win at first asking. 5 BRIAN'S WONDER is a son of Three Wonders debuting for veteran trainer Vinnie Blengs with 5 local workouts showing. Mr. Blengs adds Lasix and hot jock Manny Aguilar for this assignment.
4-7-5
Race 8 -
2 ANGEL WINGS looked like she sprouted wings when she shipped in from Oaklawn Park to break her maiden at the $16K level by almost 13 lengths. Trainer Steve DiMauro has the daughter of Devil's Bag firing bullets for her first tussle vs. winners. 7 LAURAELISES SISTER, a 7-time winner here, moved to the Bill White barn via the claim after threatening to win at this level in three consecutive starts. Trainer White, 33% with new claims, tabs Elvis Trujillo to ride. 3 FOXY DATE is turning back to her best distance (7-2-2-0) after surrendering a late lead to finish second - a length in front of Lauraelises Sister - at 6 1/2 furlongs. Trainer Walter Rosas-Canessa lightens the impost with 5-pound apprentice Jermaine Bridgmohan.
2-7-3
Race 9 -
5 WINDY PRINCESS is turning back to 5 furlongs after showing speed and weakening late in a pair vs. similar at three-quarters of a mile. 6 JUSTTELLTHESTORY should be ready to fire a winning effort after recovering from a slow start to finish second in her career debut at this level and distance. 1 CRUISE TO THE MOON drops to the bottom after an eventful mission at the $16K level in which she steadied entering the turn and finished third. Trainer Tim Ritvo, who has two in the race (Dancing Kristal), has Rosemary Homeister atop the daughter of Weekend Cruise.
BEST BET: RACE 8 - ANGEL WINGS
LONG SHOT: RACE 4 - BLUE RIDGE GUY
5-6-1
__________________
Belmont
Today's Free Race: Belmont for Friday June 22, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Belmont
Belmont - Race #6 - Post: 5:32pm
Rating: 4
#1 TOO MUCH ZIP (ML=6/1)
#2 CARRS AND STRIPES (ML=9/2)
#9 SPECIAL FORMAT (ML=5/2)
#8 GIGGI'S BABY (ML=5/1)
TOO MUCH ZIP - The June 17th affair at Belmont was at a class level of (75). Dropping down in class drastically, so she should be in a good spot to take this race. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after her last outing, it generally means she's fit. A race on the grass, so breeding is key. This one has one of the best grass sire stats in the field. I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough outings since the layoff and should be fit. CARRS AND STRIPES - Rode this animal on May 25th and Coa is back again in the irons in today's contest. If you review the PP's for this horse, you'll see she has recorded the top speed figure at the distance and surface. A repeat performance in today's race and this horse has a superb chance to win. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be a very valuable selection factor. This thoroughbred is ranked at the top of the list in this bunch. SPECIAL FORMAT - You'll be generating profits right and left by turning your racing money onto this jockey/handler combination. I always like to see a filly getting Lasix for the second time. This one fits the bill. GIGGI'S BABY - A winning pct the likes of what Desormeaux and Hushion have achieved together is terrific. The fact that this filly is entered right back into a race so quickly means she's fit and ready. Sub-par effort last race out at Belmont was due to the off-going (she ran fourth). Have to do better right here in this race without a bad track.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 WICKED QUEEN (ML=6/1), #3 SIEMPRE VERDE (ML=8/1)
WICKED QUEEN - Showed very little in the last affair. Really can't expect any improvement today. SIEMPRE VERDE - This questionable contender ran a pedestrian speed figure last time out. She shouldn't run better and will probably lose in today's event running that number.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 TOO MUCH ZIP on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [2,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,2,9] with [1,2,9] with [1,2,6,8,9] with [1,2,6,8,9] Total Cost: $36
__________________
Belmont
R-3 #4 Moon's Halo[WP]
R-5 #4 Hello Newman[WPS]
R-7 # 9 Blues Street[WPS]
series info
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 22
Philadelphia at St. Louis (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Phillies’ have heated up (6-4, +$125), moving close to the Mets in the NL East race, and they are poised for a big weekend at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals continue to flounder well below .500, and they’ve been big money-burners in this ballpark (-$710). The Phillies have cleaned up against righthanders this year (27-17, +$745 with 5.6 runs per game) and the St. Louis rotation is currently devoid of southpaws. We expect to be using the visitor throughout the weekend, and we’ll only back off if the home team finds a lefty to send to the mound. BEST BET: Phillies vs. righthanders.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago W. Sox (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Inter-league play has not been going well for the beleaguered White Sox (only 3-9, -$610 so far). They’ve got the weakest hitting team in the majors (.231 team BA, averaging just 3.8 runs per game) so their prospects vs. their hometown rival are not promising, given the outstanding work by Cub starters in recent days (2.73 ERA last 10). The Cubs have excellent numbers vs. righthanders in road games (+$410 with 5.5 runs per game), and the White Sox starters they are likely to face this weekend have not looked very sharp in recent outings. BEST BET: Cubs vs. righthanders.
Minnesota at Florida (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Marlins have kept reasonably close to .500 and thanks to the N.Y. Mets’ recent woes, they aren’t in too bad shape as the first half of the season begins to wind down. The anticipated return of Josh Johnson to the rotation could be just what they need to put together a decent surge in the second half. But they have lost money here at Dolphin Stadium (-$565) so caution is advised. The Twins are within striking distance in the competitive AL Central, but they are still way down for the year (-$625) and none of their starters other than Santana has looked particularly sharp. BEST BET: None.
Cleveland at Washington (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Tribe has given back a substantial chunk of the profits they amassed in April & May, as they suffer through their worst downward spiral of the season (5-6, -$380 in their last 11 games). The Nationals, to everyone’s surprise, have emerged as the mot profitable team in the NL (+$1195), cashing in huge tickets over the past couple of weeks. They’ve done their best work at RFK vs. lefties (4.6 runs per game) and there is certainly no shortage of southpaws in the Indians’ rotation. BEST BET: Nationals vs. lefthanders.
Colorado at Toronto (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Rockies have moved over the .500 level and have proved to be a formidable opponent in these inter-league contests (7-5, +$375). They are poised for a big weekend at Rogers Centre vs. a Toronto team that could be overpriced in these contests. The Blue Jays have had a terrible time with righthanders this year (only 20-27, -$960 so far) and with Jeff Francis unlikely to take a turn, they’ll have their hands full with the Colorado starters. The Rockies, on the other hand, have dominated righthanders this year (+$1255), and the Toronto rotation is currently without a lefthander. Grab those prices on the road team. BEST BET: Rockies when righty meets righty.
L.A. Dodgers at Tampa Bay (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Devil Rays have a decent offense (.263 team BA) but James Shields won’t be on the mound this weekend, and he’s the only reason that this team’s league high team ERA (5.67) isn’t higher. Scott Kazmir is a capable hurler, but the Dodgers do their best work against lefthanders (14-5, +$760 with 5.2 runs per game) so the road team will be hard to pass up when he takes his turn. We’ll look for other spots where we can use this visitor, but LA’s road numbers vs. righthanders are not encouraging (-$505 with 3.6 runs per game) so caution is advised. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. Kazmir.
Oakland at N.Y. Mets (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Mets are lead in the NL East is rapidly evaporating (2-8, -$585 last 10 days with only 3.7 runs per game and a fat 7.05 ERA among starters), so they are hosting the Athletics at the worst possible time. Oakland has the best pitching staff in MLB right now (3.30 team ERA) and they’ve been solid on the road all year (18-14, +$600). The Mets have lost a bundle here at Shea Stadium (-$695) and when you consider that they’ll still be favored or at worst pick ‘em in these games, the visitor is pretty difficult to pass up. A good chance for Oakland to take 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Athletics in all games.
Detroit at Atlanta (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Tigers stumbled a bit towards the end of May, but they’ve gotten themselves back on track (6-4, +$125 last 10 days with 6.7 runs per game), and appear poised to topple the Indians from the top slot in the AL Central. They’ve done well against some tough inter-league opponents (8-4, +$325), and they’ve been a terrific value in road games thus far (21-15, +$680 with 6.0 runs per game). The Braves are losing money at Turner Field, and their numbers vs. lefthanders this year are just awful (14-18, -$600 with 3.8 runs per game). We’ll stick with the Detroit southpaws this weekend. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Braves.
Kansas City at Milwaukee (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Royals still have lots of weaknesses, but they’ve turned a nice profit in road games vs. righthanders (+$590) and could be a decent underdog value here at Miller Park. And with Chris Capuano now on the DL, they won’t be taking on any lefties unless the Brewers bring one up. Lay off anytime KC sends a southpaw to the mound (Brewers +$610 at home vs. lefties), otherwise the visitor looks like the way to go. BEST BET: Royals when righty meets righty.
Houston at Texas (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
They’ve got a pair of bad baseball teams in Texas in 2007 (Rangers only 26-43, -$1225 . . . Astros 30-39, -$1325) so it’s hard to get a decent read on this. Statistically, Houston looks like they should be doing much better (.255 team BA, 4.36 ERA, roughly average for the NL this year), but the Rangers are a complete disaster (.255 BA, 5.50 ERA, 2nd worst in the AL in both departments). If we see a price we like we’ll consider taking a shot with the visitor, but we prefer to wait until game day before we jump in. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Arizona (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Orioles were in 2nd place in the AL East not long ago, but they’ve fallen to the back of the pack (29-40, -$1345) and they’ll have a tough time here at Chase Field taking on a formidable Arizona squad. The home team is 18--9 (+$775) against righthanders in this ballpark and can improve those numbers, but watch out for Jeremy Guthrie (1.71 ERA in nine starts) if he happens to get a start. BEST BET: Diamondbacks vs. all righthanders except Guthrie.
Boston at San Diego (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Red Sox have posted very strong numbers vs. righties on the road this season (17-6, +$1290) so it will be interesting to see how they fare against the best pitching staff in baseball (SD 2.92) one that boasts some of the finest righthanders in MLB today. The Padres have lost money vs. righthanders here at Petco Park in night games (-$340 with 3.5 runs per game), so we’ll grab the short prices on the Bosox here. BEST BET: Red Sox when righty meets righty.
Cincinnati at Seattle (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Mariners have emerged as serious contenders in the competitive AL West, but their pitching has struggled in recent days (6.08 ERA among starters last 10) so caution is advised. We’d consider taking them if the Reds send a southpaw to the hill (Seattle 13-5, +$1095 vs. lefties this year), but that might not happen. The Reds have the worst record in the NL right now (27-43, -$1875) and there is nothing to recommend them here at Safeco. BEST BET: None.
Pittsburgh at L.A. Angels (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Pirates may not be in the same class as the first place Angels, but there might have been some opportunities to use them as underdogs if Maholm and Gorzelanny were going to be available (Angels -$120 vs. lefties at home with 4.4 runs per game vs. southpaws overall). But it appears likely that they’ll both miss this series, and given LA’s stellar performance vs. righthanders in this ballpark (19-5, +$1110), it’s worth it to take the home team in that situation at any price. BEST BET: Angels vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Yankees at San Francisco (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Yankees are the hottest team in baseball right now (9-1, +$730 last 10 days with 7.4 runs per game and a 3.87 ERA among starters), and while their overall numbers are still pretty bad, they are a lot better than they were. The Giants have dropped into last place in the NL West, and they’ve lost money vs. righthanders here at ATT PARk (-$545). We’ll take a shot with Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina, who have both looked very sharp in their most recent outings (1.72 & 1.98 ERA’s respectively) and who are slated to take turns in this series. BEST BET: Wang/Mussina.
Vegas Experts
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, June 22nd, 8:10 P.M. EDT
Phillies a .500 road team on the season, the Cards a sub-.500 team at home. PHILADELPHIA is 27-16 against the money line in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons and 52-34 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 3 seasons. MOYER is 106-46 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record). ST LOUIS is 11-19 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.
Play on: Philadelphia
Big Al's
3 Game Card
Minnesota
San Francisco
Tigers/Braves 'over' the total
Brandon Lang
10 DIME
Astros
Reds
Angels -1.5
5 DIME
Phillies
A's
Padres
The Wunderdog
Game: Oakland at N Y Mets (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Oakland +133
Hard to believe that the Mets are just 3-13 in their last 16 games, but the offense has failed them throughout the month of June. The Mets’ bats have produced more than three runs in just 4 of the last 16 games and that's what losing streaks are made of. It isn't just the offense, the Mets pitching has allowed four or more runs in 13 of the last 16 as well so it is easy to see why they are struggling to find the win column. The fact is that they have given up 6+ runs in 7 of the past 11 games. Oakland will come in having won 13 of their last 18, and kills LHP. They are currently among the best at 14-8, and they haven't been beating the soft LHP, they have beaten all the good ones. They average 5.3-runs per game (RPG) against LHP, which is over a run per game more than they do against RHP. They have taken down Santana, Lee, Sabathia, Pettitte, Bedard and Zito twice each. They managed 57 runs in those 8 games, against some of the top LHP in the league. Tom Glavine is eit!
her reaching the end, or is in a miserable slump. Glavine has been touched off for 36 hits in his last 22 innings, resulting in 21 earned runs and a struggling Mets’ pen has tacked on 12 more runs over the last 4 as well. Glavine has not had a game this season where he has struck-out more than five hitters - a career first, but also a sign his stuff and command is on the decline. We like the A's to get the win over the struggling Mets.
Hondo
10 units: Chicago Cubs
Gator
70% Situations
Play Under MLB road teams when the total is 9 to 9.5 and a team that has gone 15 straight games with one or less errors, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is >= 2.000 his last 5 starts.
(41-12 since 1997.) (77.4%)
PLAY: Kansas City / Milwaukee UNDER 9.5 (+100)
Dave Cokin
(911) LA Dodgers
(912) TAM Devil Rays
Take "(911) LA Dodgers"
Andy Sonnanstine has risen through the Tampa Bay farm system in a hurry, and he's been a big winner at each successive level. He's got the stuff to be a solid big leaguer as well, but right now he's going through some growing pains. Sonnanstine's breaking ball occasionally hangs in the center of the strike zone, and that's where he's gotten in trouble so far. The rookie is in tough here as he's facing Derek Lowe, who's hot right now and has owned the D-Rays throughout his career. Off a good series in Toronto, I like the Dodgers to open their weekend set in Tampa with a win as well.
Jim Feist
911) LA Dodgers
(912) TAM Devil Rays
Take "(911) LA Dodgers"
With injury problems to the rotation, LA starter Derek Lowe has stepped up, with a 2.28 ERA the last three starts. Tampa Bay is a small park, but Lowe throws a hard sinker, something that will help him here. He's also 9-3 with a 3.05 career ERA against the Devil Rays. Tampa Bay starter Andy Sonnanstine is one of several kids they've turned to to try and find a No. 3, 4, or 5 starter. He has a 7.11 ERA giving up 6 HRs in 19 innings. Play the Dodgers!
Mighty ! Quinn
Chicago Cubs
Friday Horse Racing Spot Selection
SPOT PLAYS
For Friday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (2nd) Aloma's Rose, 10-1
(4th) Twixt, 6-1
Belmont Park (1st) Emerging Spirit, 8-1
(7th) Blues Street, 3-1
Calder Race Course (4th) Genuine Diamond, 4-1
(10th) Majestic Flame, 6-1
Canterbury Park (1st) Sir Reddington, 6-1
(4th) Miswaki's Best, 5-1
Charles Town (3rd) Crown Barb, 7-2
(7th) Ministers Pic, 10-1
Churchill Downs (2nd) That's a Secret, 5-1
(9th) Nola Star, 7-2
Colonial Downs (3rd) Stonerun, 3-1
(7th) Matt Blanc (Ire), 6-1
Emerald Downs (1st) Simonis, 4-1
(5th) Our Singing Boy, 8-1
Evangeline Downs (3rd) Duclaw, 3-1
(6th) Brice's Rocket, 8-1
Finger Lakes (4th) Command Center, 3-1
(7th) Lake Isle Drive, 5-1
Hollywood Park (4th) Wizzen Mizzen, 3-1
(6th) Buck Basolo, 5-1
Indiana Downs (1st) Zanna, 9-2
(7th) Favorite Lily Ann, 4-1
Lone Star Park (4th) Abbey Court, 6-1
(7th) Rare Flyer, 9-2
Louisiana Downs (2nd) My Foriels On, 7-2
(8th) Prince Satchel, 8-1
Monmouth Park (1st) Sharp, 6-1
(5th) Flash of Victory, 4-1
Mountaineer (2nd) Classic Berti, 9-2
(6th) Mighty Fortress, 8-1
Northlands (1st) Miles From Dublin, 7-2
(8th) Mr Magic, 9-2
Penn National (6th) Wild Kipper, 7-2
(9th) Glow of Success, 9-2
Prairie Meadows (3rd) Bay Lover, 7-2
(6th) Queen Archie, 7-2
River Downs (1st) Byars Beware, 4-1
(3rd) Prayer Warrior, 8-1
Thistledown (2nd) Chrome, 4-1
(4th) Bear Trick, 8-1
Woodbine (5th) Jade's a Pleasure, 4-1
(9th) Mon Joli, 4-1
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Friday, June 22
RACE ONE
ITSALLGREEKTOU has been ascending the class ladder while winning her last two starts for Paul Aguirre. Her sharpness should allow her to win again despite the surface switch and move into allowance company. NEWPORT TOPPER was a close third to course specialist Charmin Dot over the Hollywood Park turf last time out. 'TOPPER should establish a good position early. CHARM M BROAD moves from turf to Cushion and from route to sprint. Her feather weight of 105 might allow her to make the early running.
RACE TWO
MARQZ MELODY lost narrowly as the favorite sprinting and now tries two turns for Michael Machowsky. 'MELODY's opposition is exceptionally weak tonight and she should earn that elusive diploma. VEILS DE FLEUR made a middle move before throwing in the towel under these conditions May 31. Solis stays with her and she should hold on better in this spot. QUEENOFTHEBRAHMS closed strongly, but way too late in her California debut. If she can stay in touch with the field early, she could register a mild surprise.
RACE THREE
CONCLAVE lost a tough decision in his first start for Jack Carava May 30 but should avenge that loss tonight. He scratched Wednesday in favor of this spot. HOLY LARK was claimed a week ago by Barry Abrams. He was a fair second that day and now elevates several floors into $32,000 company. TOM WEST swung out entering the stretch but lost his punch late. He's come back to work fast since that race and Talamo stays.
RACE FOUR
WIZZEN MIZZEN dueled from the inside, something not recommended for a first time starter, before tiring in deep stretch. The experience, switch to the outside post, and a bullet 6-panel work June 17 all add up to victory. STOP THE HUMOR has had several close calls in her nine races, but is still a maiden. She probably has far less improvement in her than the top choice. KATORI is the X-factor. A beginner by Dixie Union, KATORI has a top trainer (Doug O'Neill), top rider (Michael Baze) and the drills to have a say in the outcome.
RACE FIVE
The last time HOLLY'S GOLD competed at this class level, she came away with a daylight victory. Not that she hasn't been competitive against better, but this is her winning tag. CELTIC WAY double drops off a claim, rarely a good sign. When she's healthy, she's better than these. LESLIE LILL opened up a commanding lead for bug boy Tom Foley before giving it up late. Foley stays aboard and similar tactics will be used tonight.
RACE SIX
BRIAN THE BOLD telegraphed his talent with super effort first time out. The Paddy Gallagher raced greenly early, was last at the quarter pole, then made up almost 10 lengths in the stretch to just miss. His price will be much shorter than the 32-1 he went off last time. BUCK BASOLO showed surprising speed in his second start to finish a nose back of 'BRIAN. He'll be in the thick of the battle throughout. THE IVAN SHOW finished well in his first start in five months. This one made his first appearance in the San Miguel Stakes, indicating his connections are high on him.
RACE SEVEN
Six old pros, who have combined for 42 victories, do battle in tonight's feature. WIND WATER comes off a game victory in which he set brisk fractions then held off BROOKER for a half-length score. He can take down his 12th career win for the John Sadler, Corey Nakatani team. BROOKER was claimed out of his last start after coming up a tad short against 'WIND. Off his best race, he could turn the tables. AREYOUTALKINTOME is a former stakes winner who ventures into the claiming ranks. He's not what he once was, but can still be effective at this level.
RACE EIGHT
NEUTRALITY has blown a lot of chances (10), but this will be only her second start at the bottom. In her first, she closed strongly but fell a length short to Delphia. On sheer ability, NEUTRALITY finally hits paydirt tonight. HUNSLEY BUNSLEY seems the only runner capable of upsetting the favorite. She flashed improved zip last time and now adds blinkers and Espinoza. MAD DUCK appears to be the best of the others. She finished with interest after a sluggish start and now gets an equipment change.
Best Bet-MARQZ MELODY (2)
__________________
Belmont
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Storm Boot Gold (1st race)
First Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Storm Boot Gold 2. Drizzly 3. Emerging Spirit
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STORM BOOT GOLD launched a three-race winning streak here last year off a turf-to-dirt switch, and looks like the main speed as he drops sharply in class; chased Grade 1 winner Commentator lone dirt start of current form cycle. DRIZZLY was away nearly three months, but picked up right where he left off in terms of figures; consistent deep closer needs WOOD WINNER to take it to Storm Boot Gold early. EMERGING SPIRIT, with 20 seconds and thirds from 41 lifetime starts, is a likely candidate to round out exactas & trifectas.
Second Race
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1. Any Which Way 2. No Lemon 3. Poker God
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ANY WHICH WAY returned from a long layoff with two decent efforts earlier at the meet, notably May 26 comeback forcing an extremely fast pace; probably has to get the best of NO LEMON through the opening fractions. The latter showed improvement first time on dirt; lightly raced colt is drawn just inside the choice, and may be sent from the gate in an effort to maintain position. POKER GOD was close behind Any Which Way when he tried a dirt sprint following a pair of turf routes to begin career; has more speed than he showed, judging from 35.20 workout four days prior, and we might see more of it with blinkers on.
Third Race
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1. Moon's Halo 2. Bound Notebook 3. Aristocrat
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MOON'S HALO drops to available allowance condition after fading through final three-eighths of Grade 2 Churchill Downs Handicap on a drying out sealed track Ky. Derby day; three wins off workouts include both local starts, and a triple-digit Beyer in '07 comeback. BOUND NOTEBOOK comes off a figure of 102 earned in hard-fought decision over odds-on Rondo, who returned to win easily last week; regressed off a similar big-figure performance two back. ARISTOCRAT posted his lifetime top figure here last June when also freshened following an off-the-pace victory at Keeneland in April; took a long time to get through second-level ranks, however, and will find these even tougher to overtake.
Fourth Race
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1. Truth Or Dare 2. Renown 3. Chinsegut Bay
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TRUTH OR DARE reared at the break and spotted the field several lengths as the 8-5 choice in first local start, and recovered to miss second by only 1 1/2 lengths; trouble prone thus far, but stretching out to a mile may help. RENOWN shows several races that are good enough to contend, climaxed by two runner-up finishes earlier this month; stretch threat if he's got another bullet to fire making fourth start in 26 days. CHINSEGUT BAY comes off paired Beyers coinciding with removal of blinkers, a pattern that hints he may be set to improve; should benefit from initial run over this course.
Fifth Race
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1. Skypa 2. Hello Newman 3. First Grandson
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SKYPA moved closer to the leaders through a sharp second quarter in 22.20 seconds, engaged in a prolonged battle for command and settled for the runner-up spot in a game attempt first time over this track; gets an easier pace match-up where he may be able to dictate the tempo. HELLO NEWMAN rallied wide and finished evenly when a clear third behind Skypa second time out; gets off the rail for the first time, after a sharp blowout last week. FIRST GRANDSON would've been second had he not lugged in through stretch of debut on turf; pedigree and good recent workouts indicate he can improve on the main track for very good second-out trainer.
Sixth Race
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1. Special Format 2. Carrs and Stripes 3. Too Much Zip
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SPECIAL FORMAT moves a bit closer in, and stretches out a furlong, after racing wide and greenly in turf sprint from post 11 to begin career; need only improve marginally to rate the edge over CARRS AND STRIPES. The latter is still a maiden after 16 starts, but only her last two off a layoff came on turf, and she was second each time behind 8-5 Off Sweets and odds-on Prom Dance; hard to eliminate in this spot. TOO MUCH ZIP is on a bounce/rebound pattern; has some turf pedigree, and could be dangerous if she can reproduce May 20 comeback figure earned on main track.
Seventh Race
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1. Blazing Dynamo 2. Big Bold Place 3. Chestertown Slew
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Others have run faster figures than BLAZING DYNAMO, but has edged forward with every start, capped by a solid finish for maiden win on this course, and turned in his best workout five days ago; full brother to Blazing Fury (second in 1 1/2-mile Turf Classic) may be the one to appreciate 1 1/4 miles today. BIG BOLD PLACE comes off paired Beyer tops on this course earlier at the meet, the second one vs. Trippis Storm - who was winning third straight off switch to grass, and returned to run a bang-up second in N3X condition Wednesday; like the rest, he's a mystery at this trip. CHESTERTOWN SLEW set the pace to near midstretch of the 1 3/16-mile Saranac at 3, and had Beyered 95-92-91 on this course before he bled through Lasix last out; ensures an honest pace along with OF ALL TIMES and THE CUBAN HAWK.
Eighth Race
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1. Autobahn Girl 2. Mini Sermon 3. Drama Lady
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AUTOBAHN GIRL gets the benefit of the doubt for failing to fire in the Ky. Oaks, and prior to that was in against Acorn winner Cotton Blossom; had never been worse than second prior to that, including wins in all four starts at a mile - three of them around one turn. MINI SERMON was bumped at the break, recovered to duel through a sharp pace and drove clear for an impressive first-level allowance score six weeks ago, so she has had ample recovery time; also capable of rallying from off the pace. DRAMA LADY has moved forward each time out on the figures while stretching out a bit each time, and now turns back to a mile after two solid efforts on this track; nicely drawn outside in a short field.
Ninth Race
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1. Super Nationals 2. Fairway Drive 3. I'ma a Fax
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Top four aren't separated by much off their "A" races on grass. SUPER NATIONALS won this course & distance last year the only time he's dropped from statebred allowances to a restricted claimer; return from layoff in key race at Aqueduct was promising, followed by a regression setting pressured pace. FAIRWAY DRIVE also looks to rebound, after beating non-winners of two claimers with a lifetime best figure, and then stopping as the choice in a statebred allowance. I'MA A FAX is a 7-year-old eligible for non-winners of three lifetime, but nonetheless boasts the best last-out figure, earned in a tougher spot vs. open $35K runners. PULPITEER's last three grass numbers dating back to last July - 79, 80, 76 - indicate he'll be part of the cavalry charge through midstretch; back quickly after sprinting vs. open $35K types last week.
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Calder
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
3 MOMMY'SSTAR, ridden by Rosie Homeister Jr., and trained my her mommy Rosemary Sr., drops a notch after finishing a willing third - beaten 1 1/4 lengths - in her 2-furlong $40K career debut on a sealed sloppy track. 6 BETTER WHIPP drops into the claiming ranks with Lasix added after apparently bleeding when finishing fourth vs. maiden special weight competition. Leading jock Manoel Cruz hops aboard. 7 LUNACAT, an already well-traveled daughter of Deputy Wild Cat drops, turns back, and receives Lasix, after trying 2 furlongs on the Polytrack at Woodbine in her career debut, 2 furlongs at Delaware on May 27, and 4 1/2 furlongs at Woodbine last out.
3-6-7
Race 2 -
7 BLUSHING BAVARIAN, third on the turf here vs. maiden special weight competition on May 19, returns to the lawn after finishing second vs. this caliber of competition in a race moved to a fast main track. 3 DARN SECRET will try the turf again after showing promise in her first journey around 2-turns when she rebounded from a slow start to finish second vs. $25K maidens at a mile on the main track. 4 MABEL SYRUP is stretching out a mile and a sixteenth again (8-0-2-2) after honing her speed when dueling for the lead and finishing second vs. $40K maidens in a 5-furlong turf sprint. 1 HARMONY FOUND gets some class relief after hitting the board in 1 of 5 previous turf races vs. tougher competition.
7-3-4-1
Race 3 -
4 KIN YI should be ready to score after bumping at the start and finishing second in her career debut at this level and distance. Note that trainer Wesley Ward has a strong 34% win average with horses making their second start. 5 HEAR ME should make her presence felt when dropping in for a tag after finishing third & second, respectively, at the distance vs. special weight competition. 7 INDY O. makes her Florida debut with Lasix added after trying 2 furlongs at Woodbine and Delaware before returning to Woodbine and failing to handle 4 1/2 furlongs when she apparently bled.
4-5-7
Race 4 -
8 KRISTALI, who beat this competition by 7-plus lengths on June 3, albeit in a race moved to the main track, returns to the turf (9-1-0-2) after rallying to come within a neck of winning the 12-furlong New York New York here on Belmont Day. 7 HANDSOME SMILE, a productive 15-5-2-0 on this course, hopes to return to the lawn after making a middle move and tiring to finish third behind Kristali and 5 BOGANGLES on June 3. The latter, 7 2-1-1 on the Calder sod, will try to close the gap on Kristali in her second race back from an almost 5-month layoff. 1 SPEED AND HEART, 4 for 10 in the money on the grass, returns after getting mugged at the start and eased in the New York New York.
8-7-5-1
Race 5 -
2 LADY CHARLEEN drops a notch on the maiden scale after recovering from a slow start to finish third behind next-out winner Arealhotlover (Race 2 - Sat.) in a $40K claimer at the distance. 7 R CHARLIE'S ANGEL, a daughter of Indian Charlie, shows 3 local workouts, including a sharp 3-furlong gate work on June 15, in preparation for her career debut. Trainer Wesley Ward, 28% with his 2-year-olds, adds Lasix for this event. 6 EMPRESS KAROLINA is a daughter of Yonaguska that has trained consistently in preparation for her career debut. Trainer Timmy Ritvo adds Lasix and Abel Castellano Jr. to the deal.
2-7-6
Race 6 -
3 OUR LITTLE BUCK should be ready to score at five-eighths of a mile after posting the best last-race speed figure (72) when beaten a neck vs. $16K "three-lifetime" claimers at 5 1/2 furlongs. 6 WESTERN PASTURES drops into this conditioned claimer in the first start since finishing second in a 'key' $16K optional claimer last July that produced next-out winners Cajulena, Sophie's Crown & Blinka's Baby. Trainer Mike McDonald, 3 for 7 (43%) with the longer than 180-day layoff, has apprentice Jermaine Bridgmohan handling the return. 5 GINNY FIZZ makes her first start since she walloped $10K "two-lifetime" claimers on Apr. 27 by 6 1/4 lengths. Leading trainer Kathleen O'Connell teams with leading jock Manoel Cruz.
3-6-5
Race 7 -
4 BRAVE TIGER, a half to Mecke Daughter, who was a Grade 1 winner in South America, debuts for trainer Norm Pointer, who has a 17% win average with his freshman runners. 7 SEAGULL MOON, a son of Migrating Moon, debuts for trainer Christos Gatis with Manoel Cruz named to ride. Tab the tote action for clues about this colt's chances to win at first asking. 5 BRIAN'S WONDER is a son of Three Wonders debuting for veteran trainer Vinnie Blengs with 5 local workouts showing. Mr. Blengs adds Lasix and hot jock Manny Aguilar for this assignment.
4-7-5
Race 8 -
2 ANGEL WINGS looked like she sprouted wings when she shipped in from Oaklawn Park to break her maiden at the $16K level by almost 13 lengths. Trainer Steve DiMauro has the daughter of Devil's Bag firing bullets for her first tussle vs. winners. 7 LAURAELISES SISTER, a 7-time winner here, moved to the Bill White barn via the claim after threatening to win at this level in three consecutive starts. Trainer White, 33% with new claims, tabs Elvis Trujillo to ride. 3 FOXY DATE is turning back to her best distance (7-2-2-0) after surrendering a late lead to finish second - a length in front of Lauraelises Sister - at 6 1/2 furlongs. Trainer Walter Rosas-Canessa lightens the impost with 5-pound apprentice Jermaine Bridgmohan.
2-7-3
Race 9 -
5 WINDY PRINCESS is turning back to 5 furlongs after showing speed and weakening late in a pair vs. similar at three-quarters of a mile. 6 JUSTTELLTHESTORY should be ready to fire a winning effort after recovering from a slow start to finish second in her career debut at this level and distance. 1 CRUISE TO THE MOON drops to the bottom after an eventful mission at the $16K level in which she steadied entering the turn and finished third. Trainer Tim Ritvo, who has two in the race (Dancing Kristal), has Rosemary Homeister atop the daughter of Weekend Cruise.
BEST BET: RACE 8 - ANGEL WINGS
LONG SHOT: RACE 4 - BLUE RIDGE GUY
5-6-1
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Belmont
Today's Free Race: Belmont for Friday June 22, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Belmont
Belmont - Race #6 - Post: 5:32pm
Rating: 4
#1 TOO MUCH ZIP (ML=6/1)
#2 CARRS AND STRIPES (ML=9/2)
#9 SPECIAL FORMAT (ML=5/2)
#8 GIGGI'S BABY (ML=5/1)
TOO MUCH ZIP - The June 17th affair at Belmont was at a class level of (75). Dropping down in class drastically, so she should be in a good spot to take this race. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after her last outing, it generally means she's fit. A race on the grass, so breeding is key. This one has one of the best grass sire stats in the field. I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough outings since the layoff and should be fit. CARRS AND STRIPES - Rode this animal on May 25th and Coa is back again in the irons in today's contest. If you review the PP's for this horse, you'll see she has recorded the top speed figure at the distance and surface. A repeat performance in today's race and this horse has a superb chance to win. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be a very valuable selection factor. This thoroughbred is ranked at the top of the list in this bunch. SPECIAL FORMAT - You'll be generating profits right and left by turning your racing money onto this jockey/handler combination. I always like to see a filly getting Lasix for the second time. This one fits the bill. GIGGI'S BABY - A winning pct the likes of what Desormeaux and Hushion have achieved together is terrific. The fact that this filly is entered right back into a race so quickly means she's fit and ready. Sub-par effort last race out at Belmont was due to the off-going (she ran fourth). Have to do better right here in this race without a bad track.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 WICKED QUEEN (ML=6/1), #3 SIEMPRE VERDE (ML=8/1)
WICKED QUEEN - Showed very little in the last affair. Really can't expect any improvement today. SIEMPRE VERDE - This questionable contender ran a pedestrian speed figure last time out. She shouldn't run better and will probably lose in today's event running that number.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 TOO MUCH ZIP on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [2,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,2,9] with [1,2,9] with [1,2,6,8,9] with [1,2,6,8,9] Total Cost: $36
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Belmont
R-3 #4 Moon's Halo[WP]
R-5 #4 Hello Newman[WPS]
R-7 # 9 Blues Street[WPS]