Friday 9/1/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Pesos]

Post Bonus Plays / requests / comments/ trends and concerns here.

 

[Pesos]

WNBA

Seattle at Washington:
Should be a decent game here, with the Storm favored by 1.5 and the total is 160. My numbers have Washington winning 85-81. The Storm have a two-game lead for the final playoff spot and can get in there with a win tonight or losses by Chicago and Atlanta, who are both double-digit underdogs tonight. Washington needs a win to keep the No. 5 seed, which would have them hosting the No. 8 team in a one-game playoff. Will tab the over 160 for today’s first play.

San Antonio at New York:
The Liberty are in no danger of dropping the No. 4 seed and can catch up to Connecticut with a win and a Sun loss, although that isn’t necessarily a huge incentive. San Antonio is playing out the string and should finish with the worst record in the league. New York is favored by 13 and the total is 149, while I made it 80-69.

Chicago at Minnesota:
The Sky have been the most inconsistent team in the league, beating the likes of Minnesota and Connecticut handily and then losing to teams like Indiana and San Antonio. The Lynx need to win their two remaining games to clinch the No. 1 seed and Chicago won 100-76 the last time the two teams met. Minnesota is favored by 13.5 and the total is 164, while I made it 88-75.

Connecticut at Phoenix:
Both teams are in the playoffs and the Mercury have a bit more to play for, as they can host a one-game playoff if they hang on to the No. 6 seed or possibly catch Washington for the No. 5 spot depending what happens the next three days. Phoenix is favored by 1 with a total of 170 and I made Phoenix 84-83, so will take the under for today’s second play.

Atlanta at Los Angeles:
The Sparks are favored by 14 and the total is 159.5, while I made it 85-68 in favor of the home team. L.A. can catch up to Minnesota with a Lynx loss and the Sparks have the tie-breaker after taking two of three games this year.

 

[Pesos]

SEATTLE (14 - 18 ) at WASHINGTON (17 - 15) - 9/1/2017, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in road games when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1997.
SEATTLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against Eastern conference opponents this season.
SEATTLE is 75-105 ATS (-40.5 Units) in road games after a division game since 1997.
SEATTLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SEATTLE is 8-16 ATS (-9.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 308-368 ATS (-96.8 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against Western conference opponents this season.
WASHINGTON is 179-229 ATS (-72.9 Units) after a division game since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WASHINGTON is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (7 - 25) at NEW YORK (20 - 12) - 9/1/2017, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a division game this season.
NEW YORK is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games against Eastern conference opponents since 1997.
SAN ANTONIO is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
NEW YORK is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 4-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (12 - 20) at MINNESOTA (25 - 7) - 9/1/2017, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Friday this season.
CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games after a non-conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-3 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CONNECTICUT (21 - 11) at PHOENIX (16 - 16) - 9/1/2017, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
CONNECTICUT is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) against Western conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a division game this season.
CONNECTICUT is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
CONNECTICUT is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more this season.
CONNECTICUT is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 6-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 4-3 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (12 - 20) at LOS ANGELES (24 - 8 ) - 9/1/2017, 10:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a division game this season.
LOS ANGELES is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
LOS ANGELES is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 180-223 ATS (-65.3 Units) after scoring 75 points or more since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 41-66 ATS (-31.6 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-1 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 5-2 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Pesos]

SEATTLE vs. WASHINGTON
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle

SAN ANTONIO vs. NEW YORK
San Antonio is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games
New York is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
New York is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Antonio

CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

CONNECTICUT vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Connecticut's last 8 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Connecticut is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Phoenix's last 16 games when playing Connecticut

ATLANTA vs. LOS ANGELES
Atlanta is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Atlanta is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Los Angeles's last 11 games at home

 

[Pesos]

StatFox Super Situations

SAN ANTONIO at NEW YORK
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (SAN ANTONIO) in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-80%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or higher 53-28 since 1997. ( 65.4% | 0.0 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )

CONNECTICUT at PHOENIX
Play Against - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) off a road win against a division rival, in August or September games 70-33 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 33.7 units ) 10-4 this year. ( 71.4% | 5.6 units )

ATLANTA at LOS ANGELES
Play Against - Underdogs (ATLANTA) after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 70 points or more in 3 straight games 27-7 since 1997. ( 79.4% | 19.3 units ) 1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

 

[Pesos]

Current Standings:

Rank Team W L % GB Conf H A L10 Streak
#1 Minnesota Lynx - x25 7 0.781 - 13-3 13-2 12-5 5-5 W 1 <-- IN playoffs

#2 Los Angeles Sparks - x24 8 0.750 1 12-4 14-1 10-7 8-2 W 5 <-- IN playoffs

#3 Connecticut Sun - x21 11 0.656 4 10-6 12-5 9-6 8-2 W 1 <-- IN playoffs

#4 New York Liberty - x20 12 0.625 5 11-5 12-4 8-8 8-2 W 8 <-- IN playoffs

#5 Washington Mystics -x17 15 0.531 8 12-4 10-6 7-9 4-6 L 3 <-- IN playoffs

#6 Phoenix Mercury - x16 16 0.500 9 7-9 7-8 9-8 4-6 W 1 <-- IN playoffs

#7 Dallas Wings - x16 17 0.485 9.5 7-9 10-6 6-11 5-5 W 2 <-- IN playoffs

#8 Seattle Storm 14 18 0.438 11 8-8 10-7 4-11 4-6 L 2

#9 Chicago Sky 12 20 0.375 13 6-10 4-12 8-8 4-6 L 2

#10 Atlanta Dream 12 20 0.375 13 5-11 9-8 3-12 2-8 W 2

#11 Indiana Fever - o9 24 0.273 16.5 4-12 6-10 3-14 1-9 L 7 <-- OUT of playoffs

#12 San Antonio Stars -o7 25 0.219 18 1-15 6-11 1-14 4-6 L 3 <-- OUT of playoffs

 

[Pesos]

​College Football:

Eastern Michigan was 7-6 LY, after being 7-41 the previous four years; Eagles have a senior QB with 23 starts but its whole OL has only 26 starts returning. Since 2007, EMU is 3-10 vs spread as a home favorite- they’ve got 16 starters back overall. Charlotte is 5-6-1 as a road underdog, 2-5 in last seven non-league games. 49ers have a junior QB with seven starts, an OL with 47 returning starts. Charlotte has 12 starters back overall. Last two years, MAC teams are 10-3-1 vs spread when facing teams from C-USA.

Washington is +35 in turnovers in its last 41 games; their OL has 97 returning starts- since 2014, they’re 6-3 as a road favorite. Huskies have a junior QB with 26 starts. Washington does not have a Pac-12 game for three weeks. Rutgers is 4-6 vs spread in its last ten games as a home underdog; their OL has 42 returning starts. Scarlet Knights have two QB’s with some experience to choose from. Since 2013, Big 14 teams are 15-10-1 vs spread when playing Pac-12 teams.

Lane Kiffin makes his Florida Atlantic home debut against 15-point road favorite Navy, which is 5-1 vs spread in last six games as a road favorite. Middies have only 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense; their junior QB has two career starts. FAU has 17 starters back; their OL has 83 returning starts, Owls covered once in their last seven games as a home underdog. Kendall Briles is FAU’s offensive coordinator; Owls are going to throw the ball a lot.

Wisconsin has a soph QB (9 starts) but has an experienced OL with 4 starters back (90 career starts). Since 2014, Badgers are 8-10-1 vs spread as a home favorite- they’ve got 15 starters back overall. Utah State has only 10 starters back but their senior QB has 25 career starts. Aggies are 5-9 vs spread as road underdogs under Wells. USU has only ten starters back, five on both sides of the ball. Let four years, Big 14 teams are 12-9 vs spread when playing a team from the Mountain West.

 

[Pesos]

Friday's Tip Sheet

Washington @ Rutgers
As of Tuesday, most betting shops had Washington installed as a 27.5-point road favorite with a total of 52 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Huskies opened as 31-point ‘chalk’ at most books in late June, but the number was heavily adjusted Monday morning.

When these schools met last season in the opener at Husky Stadium, Washington raced out to a 48-3 third-quarter lead en route to a 48-13 spread-covering victory as a 25-point home ‘chalk.’ The 61 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 56-point total thanks to RU’s 10-yard TD run from Janarion Grant with 5:53 remaining. The Scarlet Knights committed three turnovers and allowed the Huskies to score a pair of touchdowns on special teams. UW’s Jake Browning completed 18-of-27 throws for 287 yards and three TDs with one interception. Dante Pettis had a 68-yard punt return for a score. Grant had nine catches for 56 yards in the losing effort. He combined for 160 all-purpose yards on 18 total touches.

Washington went 12-2 straight up and 7-7 against the spread last season. The Huskies made the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history, losing 24-7 to Alabama in the semifinals as 14-point underdogs at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta. They beat four ranked teams, including a 41-10 win as 7.5-point ‘chalk’ over Colorado at the Pac-12 Championship Game. Chris Petersen’s only other defeat came at home to Southern Cal by a 26-13 count. UW had notable scalps vs. Stanford (44-6), at Utah (31-24) and at Washington State (45-17).

Washington returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. With the exception of leading receiver John Ross, Petersen’s squad brings back all of its skill players on offense. Browning, a junior who has already started 26 games and garnered fourth-team All-American honors in 2016, completed 62.1 percent of his passes last year for 3,430 yards with a 43/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Pettis also returns after hauling in 53 receptions for 822 yards and 15 TDs. Junior RB Myles Gaskin earned first-team All Pac-12 honors by rushing for 1,373 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Gaskin also had 19 catches for 137 yards and one TD. Senior RB Lavon Coleman provided excellent depth, rushing for 852 yards and seven TDs with a 7.5 YPC average.

Washington’s defense gave up merely 17.7 points per game in 2016. This unit is led by two senior linebackers in Keishawn Bierria and Azeem Victor and a pair of junior defensive tackles, Greg Gaines and Vita Vea. There’s also a true sophomore safety in Taylor Rapp, who was a second-team Freshman All-American after recording 53 tackles and four interceptions. Bierria had 70 tackles, two sacks, three tackles for loss, and two passes broken up, while Victor produced 67 tackles and three TFL’s. Vea had 39 tackles, five sacks, 1.5 TFL’s, two PBU and two QB hurries, and Gaines tallied 35 tackles, 3.5 sacks and 4.5 TFL’s.

UW announced Monday a one-game suspension for Victor and a two-game suspension for reserve CB Austin Joyner, who had 10 tackles and one interception in 12 games as a freshman last year. Also, starting sophomore LB D.J. Beavers is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Beavers started four games in ’16, contributing 40 tackles, 0.5 TFL’s, one interception and one PBU.

Washington owns a 6-3 spread record in nine games as a road favorite during Petersen’s first three years at the school. The Huskies are just 2-3 versus the number in five games as double-digit road ‘chalk’ under Petersen. This is their biggest road favorite spot since Petersen took over.

Rutgers limped to a 2-10 SU record and a 4-8 ATS mark in its first season under head coach Chris Ash, who came to RU after two seasons of serving as co-DC at Ohio State under Urban Meyer. The Scarlet Knights got their only wins of ’16 at home over Howard (52-14) and New Mexico (37-28). They finished the year on a nine-game losing streak, dropping six of those nine (and seven total) by double-digit margins, including losses of 58-0 at Ohio State, 78-0 vs. Michigan, 49-0 at Michigan State and 39-0 vs. Penn State. RU was -2,010 net yards for the season with a minus-five turnover margin.

Rutgers brings back six starters on offense and eight on defense. The new starting QB is Kyle Bolin, a grad transfer from Louisville who was stuck on the bench behind last year’s Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar Jackson. In three years at U of L that included six starts under center, Bolin completed 58 percent of his passes for 2,104 yards with a 13/10 TD-INT ratio.

Grant is RU’s best player who went down with a season-ending injury in the fourth game last year. He is a three-time All-Big Ten selection as a return specialist. Before getting injured in ’16, he had already produced 20 catches for 210 yards. Also, Grant had rushed for 138 yards and three TDs on just 16 attempts for an 8.6 YPC average. He also had two TDs on special teams.

When Bolin isn’t targeting Grant, his next-favorite target will be sophomore Jawuan Harris, who had a team-high 39 receptions for 481 yards and three TDs in ’16. RU also returns its leading rusher in senior Robert Martin, who had 625 yards for two TDs with a 5.2 YPC average.

After RU’s offense averaged an abysmal 15.7 PPG last season, Ash hired former Minnesota and No. Illinois head coach Jerry Kill as his new offensive coordinator. This is the eighth different OC at RU in eight years.

RU’s defense surrendered 37.5 PPG in ’16. This unit brings back its top two tacklers, junior LB Trevor Morris (102, 1 sack) and junior LB Deonte Roberts (95, 1 INT).

 

[Pesos]

Utah State @ Wisconsin
As of Tuesday, most books had Wisconsin favored by 27.5 points with a total of 52. The Aggies were 35/1 on the money line at 5Dimes.eu (risk $100 to win $3,500).

Wisconsin finished ’16 with an 11-3 SU record and a stellar 10-3-1 ATS mark. The Badgers’ losses came against teams that were ranked second, fourth and eighth in the nation at the time. They covered the spread in losses at Michigan (14-7 as 10.5-point underdogs) and vs. Ohio State (30-23 in overtime as 10.5-point ‘dogs), and the other defeat came to Penn State (38-31) at the Big Ten Championship Game. Wisconsin had three victories over top-10 teams at the time they played, winning 30-6 at eighth-ranked Michigan State in Week 4. The Badgers also knocked off fifth-ranked LSU (16-14) in the season opener at Lambeau Field and beat seventh-ranked Nebraska 23-17 in overtime.

Wisconsin won a 24-16 decision over previously-undefeated and 12th-ranked Western Michigan at the Cotton Bowl, hooking up its backers as a 7.5-point favorite.

Paul Chryst’s team is 21-6 SU and 17-9-1 ATS since he took over for Gary Andersen in 2015. He was Wisconsin’s offensive coordinator from 2005-11 when the school set offensive records galore. Chryst was the head coach at Pitt from 2012-14, taking the Panthers to three bowl games while going 19-19.

Wisconsin owns a 5-4-1 spread record with one outright loss in nine games as a double-digit home favorite during Chryst’s tenure.

Wisconsin already lost All-American candidate Jack Cichy to a season-ending ACL tear a few weeks ago. In seven games before getting injured last season, Cichy had 60 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL’s, two PBU and three QB hurries. Now sophomore LB Zack Baun (foot) is out for the season. Baun had 15 tackles and 3.5 TFL’s last year. Reserve RB Taiwan Deal is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. Deal rushed 32 times for 164 yards last year, averaging 5.1 YPC.

Wisconsin returns eight starters on offense and six on defense. The defense gave up merely 15.6 PPG and had 34 sacks. This unit was led by rising junior LB T.J. Edwards, who produced 89 tackles, three sacks, 5.5 TFL’s, three interceptions, three QB hurries, two PBU and one forced fumble despite missing the first two games of the year. Senior safety D’Cota Dixon is another standout player, registering 60 tackles, four interceptions, four QB hurries, four PBU, one sack, 1.5 TFL’s, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery in ’16.

As a redshirt freshman last year, Alex Hornibrook started nine games at QB. The southpaw completed 58.6 percent of his passes for 1,262 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. The Badgers are hoping he can make a big jump in improvement in ’17. Hornibrook will have his two favorite targets back, senior WR Jazz Peavy and senior TE Troy Fumagalli, a second-team All Big-Ten pick last season. Peavy had 43 receptions for 635 yards and five TDs, while Fumagalli hauled in 47 catches for 580 yards and two TDs.

Utah State missed out on the postseason last season for the first time since 2010. The Aggies finished a second straight campaign with a losing record after winning 19 games in the first two years of Matt Wells’s tenure. They went 4-8 ATS in ’16, going 1-3 ATS in four outings as road underdogs. Utah State is 5-9 versus the number in 14 games as a road ‘dog on Wells’s watch.

Utah State brings back 10 of 22 starters, five on each side of the ball. The Aggies went winless in six road assignments last season, limping to an atrocious 1-5 spread record.

Utah State led 14-3 at intermission in its last trip to Camp Randall in 2012. However, when the Aggies missed a short field goal on the game’s final play, Wisconsin won a 16-14 decision despite never threatening to cover as a 14-point home favorite. During that banner campaign, Utah State finished 11-2 with its lone defeats coming at Wisconsin and at BYU by a 6-3 score.

Utah State senior QB Kent Myers has started 25 career games. He has a 31/14 TD-INT ratio in those three seasons, but he only had 10 TD passes and eight interceptions during 12 starts in 2016. Myers completed a career-low 58.0 percent of his passes for 2,389 yards. Myers rushed for 449 yards and six TDs last season. Myers has his favorite target back in the mix. Ron’quavion Tarver had 46 catches for 602 yards and three TDs. Tonny Lindsey also returns after rushing for a team-best 763 yards and six TDs with a 5.2 YPC average.

 

[Pesos]

Florida Atlantic
The Lane Kiffin Era in Boca Raton will get started Friday night when Florida Atlantic plays host to Navy at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU. As of Tuesday, most spots had the Midshipmen listed as a 10.5-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 68.5 points. The Owls were +300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300). Ken Niumatalolo’s squad went 9-5 both SU and ATS last year, ending the season on a three-game losing streak, including a 48-45 loss to La. Tech at the Armed Forces Bowl. The Middies took the cash, however, as seven-point underdogs against the Bulldogs. Navy brings back four starters on offense and eight on defense. FAU went 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS in ’16. The Owls return nine starters on offense and eight on defense. WR Kalib Woods “is not on our football team,” according to recent remarks from Kiffin. Woods was arrested for his part in a fight during the summer and charged with two felony battery counts, though his lawyers have made a motion to have the charges dismissed. Woods led FAU with 68 catches for 934 yards and one TD in ’16.

Colorado v Colorado State
Colorado and Colorado State will square off in Denver at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the Pac-12 Network. According to recent reports, this rivalry will move back to being play on campus rather than in the Mile High City after this encounter. One reason for this is CSU’s new stadium that opened last Saturday with the Rams thumping Oregon State by a 58-27 count as 3.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 85 combined points soared ‘over’ the 60-point total. Nick Stevens threw for 334 yards and three TDs compared to just one interception. Michael Gallup had 11 receptions for 134 yards, while Tre Thomas had a 44-yard pick-six as one of five turnovers forced by the CSU defense. CSU has lost back-to-back games to Colorado and three of the last four, including a 44-6 beatdown in ’16. Mike MacIntyre’s squad is coming off a breakout campaign, as it won the Pac-12 South and finished with a 10-4 record. The Buffaloes return nine starters on offense and three on defense. As of Tuesday, most spots had the Buffaloes favored by 5.5 points with a total of 66. The Rams were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

Charlotte @ Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan is a 14-point home favorite vs. Charlotte for Friday’s 6:30 p.m. Eastern kick of a non-televised affair. The total is 57 points, while the 49ers are +450 to win outright.

Boston College @ Northern Illinois
As of Tuesday, Boston College was favored by three (with some extra -115 or -120 juice) or 3.5 for its opener at Northern Illinois. The total was in the 51-52 range. These schools met at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill in ’15, with BC capturing a 17-14 victory. However, the Huskies covered the number as five-point road underdogs. BC went 7-6 both SU and ATS last season and returns eight starters on offense and seven on defense. Keep an eye on the Eagles’ senior DE Harold Landry, a fourth-team All-American last year when he had 51 tackles, 16 sacks, 5.5 TFL’s, seven forced fumbles, seven QB hurries, four PBU and one interception. The Eagles are 3-4 ATS as road favorites during Steve Addazio’s tenure. NIU won at least 11 games in five consecutive seasons from 2010-14, but it has gone 8-6 and 5-7 over the last two campaigns. The Huskies, who are 0-2 ATS as home ‘dogs on Rod Carey’s watch, bring back five starters on offense and seven on defense. They lost four one-possession games in ’16. This game will kick at 9:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network.

​Baylor
Baylor starting safeties Davion Hall and Henry Black have been injured since the start of training camp. Now sophomore CB Grayland Arnold is out for 6-8 weeks after undergoing surgery Sunday on his broken arm. In addition, senior DB Travon Blanchard has transferred to Texas A&M-Commerce and will play right away. In fact, he practiced with the FCS Lions this past Friday and will play this week vs. North Alabama. Blanchard was a second-team All Big-12 selection last year when he recorded 73 tackles, 7.5 TFL’s, 1.5 sacks, five PBU, one interception and one QB hurry. And finally, RB Terrence Williams is out indefinitely for undisclosed reasons. Williams rushed for 1,048 yards and 11 TDs in ’16, averaging 5.7 YPC. Fortunately for the Bears, they open with cupcake home games vs. Liberty and UTSA.

 

[Pesos]

Rutgers hosts Washington (statfox)

#8 Washington travels to New Jersey for a cupcake matchup start to their national title mission.

Head coach Chris Petersen’s third year at Washington was a rousing success, culminating in a CFP berth. Though the 24-7 semifinal loss to Alabama was a bitter end to the season, the Huskies have plenty of room for optimism this year. QB Jake Browning and RBs Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman are all elite talents who return behind a dominant offensive line. The defense has questions to answer in the secondary, but has one of the nation’s best front sevens. Rutgers is 1-16 in conference play as a Big Ten team, and is rarely competitive against power conference teams. Their pathetic 2016 season featured September wins over FCS Howard and New Mexico, followed by nine-straight losses by an average of 30.4 points to close the year. Becoming the laughing stock of Division I men’s athletics is a small price to pay for the TV money, and it appears it will be a long time until legitimate power conference football is being played in Piscataway. Former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill is the new RU offensive coordinator, inheriting a unit with some decent athletes, but poor QB options and a recent history of futility. The defense is equally poor. The secondary could be decent, but the linemen and linebackers will again be overwhelmed by most running attacks they face. In their only previous meeting, Washington torched Rutgers in Seattle to open the 2016 season, jumping out to a 48-0 lead and ultimately winning 48-13 and covering the 25-point line. Under Petersen, Washington is 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS as road favorites, though they failed to cover their last three games when favored by more than 20 (Portland St., Oregon St. Arizona St.) last season. Since 2014, Rutgers is 0-8 SU & ATS when an underdog of 20 or more.

Washington’s offense racked up 41.8 points per game (8th in the nation) last season, and breakout star QB Jake Browning (3,430 passing yards, 43 TD) is a true Heisman hopeful. The RB duo of Myles Gaskin (1,510 yards from scrimmage, 11 TD) and Lavon Coleman (852 rushing yards, 7 TD, 7.5 yards per carry) might be the best backfield rotation in the country. Coleman’s bruising power runs are a perfect complement to Gaskin’s speed and athleticism. The offensive line should once again be stellar, anchored by versatile C Coleman Shelton and First Team All Pac-12 OT Trey Adams, who is 6’8” and surprisingly nimble. The only concern on offense for the Huskies is at receiver after the departure of WR John Ross (1,150 yards, 17 TD). WR Dante Pettis (822 yards, 15 TD) is up to the task of being a No. 1 option, and pint-sized WR Chico McClatcher, a former tailback, is a speedster who does damage from anywhere in the formation. UW held opponents to just 17.7 points per game (8th in FBS) and 4.6 yards per play (4th) in 2016. The secondary allowed 5.7 yards per pass attempt (4th in FBS), but three Huskies DBs were drafted by the NFL in April (CBs Kevin King and Sidney Jones, and S Budda Baker). S Taylor Rapp (53 total tackles, 4 INT) was the Pac-12’s Freshman Defensive Player of the Year, but he’ll be surrounded by unproven teammates in 2017. The linebacking group will be a strength, particularly up the middle with LBs Azeem Victor (67 total tackles, 3 TFL in 10 games) and Keishawn Bierria (70 total tackles, 5 TFL, 5 fumble recoveries), who, respectively, were First and Second Team All-Pac-12 performers last season. 340-pound DT Vita Vea (5 sacks, 6.5 TFL), a potential first-round draft pick, anchors the stalwart defensive line.

Former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill takes over as coordinator for a Rutgers offense that finished last in yardage (282 yards per game) and second-to-last in points (15.7 points per game with four shutouts) last season. Gio Rescigno (889 passing yards, 5 passing TD, 5 INT, 2 rushing TD in 7 games) is the frontrunner to start at QB. WR Janarion Grant was limited to four games because of an ankle injury, but was granted an extra year of eligibility. He’s the best playmaker the Scarlet Knights have, with eight career return TD, and he’s an effective gadget player on offense, having tallied 348 yards from scrimmage and three TD in his four 2016 appearances. Leading receiver WR Jawuan Harris (39 receptions, 481 yards, 3 TD) also returns, and graduate transfer WR Damon Mitchell, who played QB, RB and WR at Arkansas, should add some life to the offense. Leading rusher RB Robert Martin (625 rushing yards, 2 TD) returns, as does RB Josh Hicks, who ran for 674 yards and four TD in 2015 before falling on the depth chart last season. RB Gus Edwards, a graduate transfer from Miami, is slated for an H-back role. A lot will be asked of inexperienced front-seven players this season after RU allowed 37.5 points per game last season (116th in FBS). DT Sebastian Joseph anchors the defensive line, and DE Kemoko Turay will see an increased role after showing promise as a backup last season. LB Tyreek Maddox-Williams was a solid contributor as a freshman last season, and LBs Trevor Morris (102 total tackles, 3.5 TFL) and Deonte Roberts (95 total tackles, 3 TFL) have experience. The secondary could be a strength, though teams may rarely need to throw against the Knights. Safeties Kiy Hester (6.5 TFL in 8 games) and Saquan Hampton (46 total tackles and 3 TFL in 7 games) will be effective if they can stay healthy, while CB Blessuan Austin (14 pass breakups) was probably Rutgers’ best defensive player in 2016.

 

[Pesos]

Game of the Day: Colorado State @ Colorado

Colorado State Rams at Colorado Buffaloes (-3.5, 66.5)
Fresh off one of the more surprising turnarounds of 2016, Colorado kicks off a new season Friday in its annual Rocky Mountain Showdown contest against Colorado State in Denver. The Rams, meanwhile, don’t look to be the 44-7 pushover they were a year ago in this matchup, having opened their season with a 58-27 thumping of the Pac-12’s Oregon State in Fort Collins on Saturday.

The Buffaloes jumped from 4-9 in 2015 to 10-4 a season ago, going 8-1 in conference play en route to the Pac-12 South Division title. The season, dubbed by the program as “The Rise,” didn’t exactly have a storybook ending, though, as Colorado was crushed by Washington 41-10 in the conference championship game and routed by Oklahoma State 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl. Entering 2017, the Buffaloes are predicted to finish fourth in South by conference media members, and coach Mike MacIntyre - winner of several 2016 national coach-of-the-year honors - says it’s on his team to quiet the "one-season wonder" chatter. “We have a lot to prove,” MacIntyre said last month during his Pac-12 Media Days news conference. “We’re still a team that people don’t believe in, and we’d like for people to believe in us. The only way you do that is put back-to-back (strong seasons) together, and that’s what we plan on doing.”

Line History:
Colorado opened as eight-point favorites and that number has been bet way down to -3.5. The total hit the betting boards at 66.5 and has yet to move. Follow the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Colorado State:
OL Ben Knox (Doubtful, undisclosed), LB Deonte Clyburn (Out For Season, Calf), WR E.J. Scott (Out For Season, Knee), S Braylin Scott (Out Indefinitely, Personal)

Colorado:
RB Kyle Evans (Probable, Hip), RB Donovan Lee (Out Indefinitely, Leg), WR Jaylon Jackson (Out For Season, Ankle), DB Anthony Julmisse (Out Indefinitely, Suspension)

ABOUT COLORADO (2016: 2016: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS, 5-9 O/U):
Sophomore quarterback Steven Montez has the difficult task of replacing the school's all-time passing yards leader, Sefo Liufau, after throwing for 1,017 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions in 10 games (three starts) last season. He’ll have plenty of help with the Buffaloes returning their top four wide receivers, four starting offensive linemen and second-team All-Pac 12 tailback Phillip Lindsay, but there are questions on defense as Colorado must replace eight starters, including a trio of NFL draft picks in the secondary.

ABOUT COLORADO STATE (2016: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U):
The Rams opened their new and sold-out on-campus stadium in style Saturday, outscoring the visiting Beavers 34-7 in the second half. Quarterback Nick Stevens threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns, the ground game produced 191 yards and three TDs and the defense forced five turnovers, which directly led to 27 of the Rams’ 57 points. Wide receiver Michael Gallup got a good start after his preseason All-Mountain West Conference First Team recognition, hauling in 11 passes for 134 yards to post his sixth straight 100-yard receiving performance dating to last season.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games in September.
* Under is 8-2 in Buffaloes last 10 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.

CONSENSUS:

The home chalk Buffaloes are picking up 61 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 62 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[Pesos]

CHARLOTTE (4 - 8) at E MICHIGAN (7 - 6) - 9/1/2017, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
E MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

WASHINGTON (12 - 2) at RUTGERS (2 - 10) - 9/1/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RUTGERS is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NAVY (9 - 5) at FLA ATLANTIC (3 - 9) - 9/1/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 160-119 ATS (+29.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 160-119 ATS (+29.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 77-39 ATS (+34.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 77-39 ATS (+34.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against Conference USA opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 71-40 ATS (+27.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 77-42 ATS (+30.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

UTAH ST (3 - 9) at WISCONSIN (11 - 3) - 9/1/2017, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BOSTON COLLEGE (7 - 6) at N ILLINOIS (5 - 7) - 9/1/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-0 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

COLORADO ST (7 - 6) vs. COLORADO (10 - 4) - 9/1/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-0 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Pesos]

FORDHAM vs. ARMY
Fordham is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
Fordham is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Army is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Army is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home

CHARLOTTE vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 7 games
Charlotte is 6-13-3 ATS in its last 22 games
Eastern Michigan is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Eastern Michigan's last 11 games

CEN. CONNECTICUT ST vs. SYRACUSE
Syracuse is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Syracuse's last 7 games

COLORADO STATE vs. COLORADO
Colorado State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado State's last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado's last 10 games
Colorado is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

NAVY vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Navy's last 10 games
Navy is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Florida Atlantic is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida Atlantic's last 6 games at home

WASHINGTON vs. RUTGERS
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Rutgers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Rutgers is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home

UTAH STATE vs. WISCONSIN
Utah State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 5 games
Wisconsin is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Boston College is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Boston College is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games at home
Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

 

[Pesos]

MLB

National League
Braves @ Cubs
Foltynewicz is 0-4, 11.12 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Braves are 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-6

Lackey is 0-1, 10.24 in his last two starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five. Cubs are 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-15-2

Atlanta is 5-4 in its last nine road games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 road games. Cubs won five of last six games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

Reds @ Pirates
Castillo is 0-2, 1.59 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Reds scored total of 3 runs in his last three starts; they’re 2-4 in his road starts. Reds’ first 5-inning record with him: 4-8-1

Cole is 2-0, 3.95 in his last four starts (over 3-1). He is 1-0, 2.08 in two starts vs Cincy this season. Pirates are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-6

Cincinnati is 4-6 in its last ten games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Reds are 9-14 in road series openers. Pirates are 3-7 in last ten games; four of their last five games stayed under the total. Bucs are 9-12 in home series openers.

Phillies @ Marlins
Pivetta is 1-2, 12.53 in his last five starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. he is 1-1, 12.15 against Miami this year. Phillies are 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-2

Peters is making his MLB debut here; he is 6-2, 1.97 in nine AA starts this season. He was 3-0, 1.99 in four AA starts LY, his only experience above A ball.

Phillies are 3-5 in last eight road games (over 5-3). Marlins lost their last four games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Nationals @ Brewers
Roark is 2-1, 4.01 in his last four starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Washington is 8-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9-2

Nelson is 1-1, 8.31 in his last four starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Brewers are 6-1 in his last seven home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-14-2

Washington won four of its last five games; six of their last seven games went over. Milwaukee won six of their last seven home games; eight of their last 11 games stayed under.

Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Walker is 1-0, 0.75 in his last two starts; under is 6-4 in his last 10 starts. He is 1-1, 3.86 in three starts vs Colorado this season. Arizona is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-4

Freeland is 0-1, 5.09 in his last three starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Colorado is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-9-1

Arizona won nine of last ten games; over is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Diamondbacks are 12-9 in road series openers. Colorado lost four of last five home games; their last four games stayed under. Rockies are 16-5 in home series openers.

Dodgers @ Padres
Kershaw’s last start was July 23; he is 5-0, 0.71 in his last six starts. Under is 5-4 in his road starts. He is 2-0, 1.88 vs San Diego this year. Dodgers are 8-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-2-3

Lamet is 4-1, 2.63 in his last seven starts (under 5-2). San Diego is 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-1

Dodgers lost five games in row for first time this year; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. San Diego is 11-6 in its last 17 home games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight. Padres are 13-9 in home series openers.

Cardinals @ Giants
Flaherty is making his MLB debut; he was 7-2, 2.74 in 15 AAA starts this season.

Stratton is 2-1, 0.96 in his last three starts (under 3-2). Giants won both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-1

Cardinals lost four of last seven games; over is 4-2 in their last six. Giants lost six of their last seven games; nine of their last 11 games overall stayed under.

American League

Indians @ Tigers
Clevinger is 2-0, 2.08 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Indians are 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-3

Carrasco is 3-1, 2.36 in his last four starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight. Indians are 10-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-7-1

Farmer is 0-2, 13.94 in his last three starts (under 3-2). Tigers are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Boyd is 0-3, 11.00 in his last four starts; over is 6-2-2 in his last 10 starts. Detroit is 2-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-4

2nd DH is three days for Cleveland; Indians won their last seven games- three of their last four games went over. Tribe is 12-11 in road series openers, winning last four. Detroit lost five of last seven home games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 11 home games. Tigers are 1-6 in last seven home series openers.

Boston @ New York
Fister is 3-2, 3.41 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1). Boston is 2-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6

Gray is 2-0, 2.07 in two home starts for New York; home side won all five of his NY starts (under 4-1). New York’s first 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Red Sox won five of last seven road games; five of their last six games stayed under. New York lost three of its last four games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 home games.

Blue Jays @ Orioles
Biagini is 0-3, 9.42 in his last three starts (under 8-4). Toronto is 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7

Gausman is 5-2, 2.26 in his last eight starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Orioles are 8-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-14

Toronto lost nine of last 12 games; under is 5-3 in their last eight. Orioles won eight of last ten games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games.

Angels @ Rangers
Skaggs is 0-3, 5.26 in his last five starts (under 6-3-1). Angels are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-6-2

Hamels is 4-1, 3.24 in his last five starts; over is 8-4-1 in his last 13 starts. Texas is 5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-1-2

Angels won four of last five games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Halos are 9-12 in road series openers. Texas lost four of last six games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Rangers are 12-9 in home series openers.

Royals @ Twins
Hammel is 1-2, 4.80 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Royals are 2-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-6

Gee is 1-1, 4.50 in two starts this season (over 2-0), both of which were on road. Minnesota’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Royals lost six of last seven games (over 4-2-1). KC is 9-12 in road series openers. Minnesota won its last four games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games. Twins 12-10 in home series openers.

Rays @ White Sox
Snell is 2-0, 2.39 in his last four starts; under is 8-2 in his last 11. Tampa Bay is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-2

Lopez is 1-1, 6.97 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Home side won both his starts. Chicago’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Rays won five of last seven games; under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 road games. Tampa Bay is 14-7 in road series openers. Chicago lost four of last five games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. White Sox won their last five home series openers.

A’s @ Mariners
Manaea is 1-3, 11.72 in his last five starts; over is 8-1 in his last nine starts. Oakland is 5-7 inches road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10-5

Gallardo is 0-3, 8.44 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Seattle is 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-3

A’s lost seven of last nine road games, six of last seven road series openers. Four of their last five games went over. Seattle lost its last five games; over is 3-1 in their last four. Mariners are 1-7 in last eight home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Atl-Chi: Foltynewicz 13-12 (0-4 last 4); Lackey 15-9
Cin-Pitt: Castillo 5-8; Cole 16-11
Phil-Mia: Pivetta 6-14; Peters 0-0
Wsh-Mil: Roark 15-9; Nelson 15-12
Az-Colo: Walker 12-10; Freeland 15-9
LA-SD: Kershaw 19-2; Lamet 9-7
StL-SF: Flaherty 0-0; Stratton 3-2

American League
Clev-Det: Clevinger 10-7 Carrasco 18-8; Farmer 3-2 Boyd 8-11
Tor-Balt: Biagini 4-8; Gausman 14-14
Bos-NY: Fister 4-5; Gray 2-3
LA-Tex: Skaggs 5-5; Hamels 10-7
KC-MIn: Hammel 8-18; Gee 1-1
TB-Chi: Snell 7-10; Lopez 1-1
A’s-Sea: Manaea 11-13; Gallardo 7-14

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Atl-Chi: Foltynewicz 4-25; Lackey 13-24
Cin-Pitt: Castillo 2-13; Cole 9-27
Phil-Mia: Pivetta 8-20; Peters 0-0
Wsh-Mil: Roark 9-24; Nelson 5-27
Az-Colo: Walker 6-22; Freeland 6-24
LA-SD: Kershaw 4-21; Lamet 5-16
StL-SF: Flaherty 0-0; Stratton 1-5

American League
Clev-Det: Clevinger 2-17 Carrasco 6-26; Farmer 2-5 Boyd 7-19
Tor-Balt: Biagini 5-12; Gausman 8-28
Bos-NY: Fister 4-9; Gray 3-21
LA-Tex: Skaggs 2-6-2; Hamels 7-17
KC-MIn: Hammel 4-26; Gee 0-2
TB-Chi: Snell 4-17; Lopez 0-2
A’s-Sea: Manaea 9-24; Gallardo 11-21

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 76-55 AL, favorites +$103
AL @ NL– 71-65 NL, favorites +$164
Total: 141-126 AL, favorites +$267

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 65-65-3
AL @ NL: Over 71-59-7
Total: Over 136-124-10

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 8/31/17
Ariz 25-26-16……37-21–11……..62-47
Atl 25-32-9……23-35-7………..48-67
Cubs 30-30-7…….32-21-13………62-51
Reds 21-37-7……..26-36–7……….47-73
Colo 34-27-6…….35-26-4………..69-53
LA 30-22-12…….41-20-7……….71-42
Miami 28-32-8…….33-23-9………61-55
Milw 33-24-9…….33-27-8……….65-51
Mets 31-32-3……..25-36-6……….56-68
Philly 16-38-14……26-31-8……….42-69
Pitt 30-32-6…….26-28-11………57-60
St. Louis 27-29-8……35-24-9…………62-53
SD 20-39-8……..32-26–8……….52-65
SF 14-45-9……..27-29-11……….41-74
Wash 39-21-6……32-27-8………….71-48

Orioles 27-33-5……..30-32-6………57-65
Boston 29-30-10………30-33-2…….59-32
White Sox 21-37-10………24-36–4……..45-72
Cleveland 37-23-7……..31-24-8………68-47
Detroit 26-34-9…….27-29-8……..53-63
Astros 32-25-9……..41-24-4……..73-49
KC 24-30-9……..27-28-12…….51-58
Angels 25-31-8………29-27-13……..54-58
Twins 37-19-10………30-31-8……..66-49
NYY 28-36-6……….34-26-4…..…62-62
A’s 24-34-7……..28-30-11……..52-64
Seattle 26-35-9……..34-22-9………60-57
TB 34-24-10……..36-21-8……..70-45
Texas 32-25-11……..32-24-8……..64-49
Toronto 25-36-4……..27-31-10……..52-67


%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 8/31/17)
Ariz 20-65……..25-67………..45
Atl 15-65……….18-66……….33
Cubs 18-67……..25-66………..43
Reds 24-65……..26-69………50
Colo 17-67……..24-65..……..41
LA 18-64……..24-67..……..42
Miami 29-68……..23-65………52
Milw 22-66……26-69…..…..48
Mets 30-66……..22-67……….52
Philly 16-68……..20-66……….36
Pitt 20-68……..21-66……….41
StL 14-65……..21-67………..35
SD 23-67……….20-65……….43
SF 15-69……….20-67……….35
Wash 25-66……..26-67……….51

Orioles 15-66……..22-69……….37
Boston 20-69……..14-65……….34
White Sox 21-68……16-64………..37
Clev 18-67……..21-65……….39
Detroit 16-68…….26-64………42
Astros 20-67……..26-67……….46
KC 16-64……..13-69……….29
Angels 23-66……..20-70……….43
Twins 15-64……..16-68……….31
NYY 16-69……..17-64……….33
A’s 15-65……..26-69………41
Seattle 21-70…….22-66………43
TB 20-68……..23-67……….43
Texas 26-69……..27-64………53
Toronto 22-65……..19-71………41

 

[Pesos]

Betting Picks & Tips

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-130); Total: 7.5
The Reds and Pirates are the first game on the board with any betting interest, as the two afternoon games feature lopsided lines. It will be Luis Castillo against Gerrit Cole in this tilt, as the Reds look to get another start or two out of the promising 24-year-old. Barring a total disaster, Castillo will cross the 160-inning mark in this start for the first time in his career. He’s already set a new high in innings pitched with 157.2 innings of work. A lot of pitchers fall into this group at this point in the season, so we’re constantly looking for those spots where fatigue is a factor.

Given the recent performances for Castillo, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Castillo has a 3.26/3.98/3.65 pitcher slash in his 77.1 innings at the big league level. He’s allowed three runs in his last three starts and has 24 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. I don’t see anything to be worried about. We’re not seeing an increase in fly balls, a drop in command, or a drop in control. He looks fit as a fiddle right now, so he’s definitely a guy worthy of consideration.

Gerrit Cole seems to have pushed through a bit of a dead arm period for him. He has a 3.99 ERA with a 4.18 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP. He’s worked 167 innings this year after being limited to 124 innings last year. His K rate is up and his walk rate is down, which are both good developments, but his command profile has taken a significant hit this season. Cole had a 6.8 percent HR/FB% last season and had never had one higher than 9.4 percent before this season’s 16.3 percent. Prior to throwing seven shutout against the Reds last time out, Cole had allowed 15 runs over his previous four starts, including six home runs. The strikeout numbers were still there, though, so he seems healthy to me. It was just a matter of running into some command problems. With a guy that was limited last season after throwing 200 innings in 2015, Cole will want to finish as strong as possible. That means he won’t throw away any of these starts at the back end of the season.

I’m looking for a low-scoring game here. PNC Park has been playing smaller of late, but the weather is getting much cooler in the Rust Belt. Cole’s SLG% against is 42 points lower at home than it is on the road and he’s allowed just 10 of his 27 HR at PNC Park. He’s shaved 88 points off of his SLG% against in the second half, so he’s getting better in that regard.

Give me the under tonight.


Los Angeles at Texas (-110); Total: 10.5
You have to wonder if the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim get a little bit of a shot in the arm today in Texas. The Angels were one of the more active teams at the waiver deal by grabbing Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips. You have to give this team and this front office a lot of credit. For a while, this team has basically been Mike Trout and a collection of average or below average players. Andrelton Simmons’s offensive breakout has turned him into a superstar with his plus-plus defense. Beyond that, this was a team that needed help. The fact that the Angels are in the Wild Card race is surprising to me, but here they are and they got markedly better yesterday.

Now, they’ll face a hated rival in the Texas Rangers. Texas opened a -135 favorite at Bookmaker, a -115 favorite at Pinnacle, and the preferred side remains the Angels, who are road chalk at some books. Tyler Skaggs is up against Cole Hamels in this matchup.

I really like this spot for the Angels. Confidence is high in that clubhouse right now. They endured a Mike Trout DL stint to stay afloat and are now right in the thick of the postseason chase. They’ve added at the waiver deadline with what could end up being a significant financial commitment if Justin Upton decides not to opt out. I’m not a huge Mike Scioscia fan because I’m not an old school guy, but Scioscia tends to have the respect of his players, so things are going well in that regard. I also like Skaggs. The southpaw has made 10 starts at the MLB level this season with a 4.25/4.17/4.24 pitcher slash. He’s coming back from Tommy John, which is no easy task and he’s never really been healthy for prolonged periods of time throughout his career. I am buying his upside. I’m a bit concerned about the lack of strikeouts in his recent starts, but I think the command profile is decent and he’s done a pretty good job of limiting walks.

The Rangers rank 19th in wOBA against LHP with a .313 mark and have an 89 wRC+ with a very friendly park factor at home, so their numbers are not great in this split.

Cole Hamels has a 3.78 ERA with a 4.68 FIP and a 4.89 xFIP on the season. The Angels got much, much better against lefties yesterday. We’ll see if Brandon Phillips is able to make it, but Justin Upton has a .477 wOBA in 117 PA against southpaws this season. This is an Angels team that was dead last in wOBA against lefties at .285. Phillips hasn’t shown much power against lefties, but he puts a lot of balls in play and has a .303 batting average in that split.

I’m not a big believer in the new Cole Hamels, who can’t strike anybody out. Hamels has just 67 strikeouts in 109.2 innings of work. He’s been very fortunate with a .240 BABIP against. That has started to turn a little bit in recent outings with nine hits allowed in 4.1 against Oakland and eight hits allowed in six against the Tigers. There’s very little to like about this BABIP-dependent profile.

I’ll take the Angels tonight. This is a rejuvenated team and the Rangers return home with a lot of other things taking away their focus.


Washington at Milwaukee (-140); Total: 9
A pretty significant line movement is the story in the Washington vs. Milwaukee game, as Jimmy Nelson and the host Brewers have been pumped up about 30 cents in the market from the Bookmaker open. Pinnacle opened closer to where the number currently is. The market really does not like Tanner Roark. Roark is my boy, but I’ve been wrong about him this season, to say the least.

It isn’t entirely my fault, though. Roark owns a 65.6 percent LOB%, which is among the lowest LOB% marks for qualified pitchers. He has a 4.63 ERA with a 4.21 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP as a result. All of his other peripherals fall into the average range, but his LOB% does not and he hasn’t been able to get out of enough jams to see some positive regression in that metric. Quietly, though, Roark hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last five starts and that’s enough to give the Nationals and their strong offense a chance. In fact, Roark has only allowed more than three runs once since June 25. He’s actually 5-3 in that span, though win-loss record means nothing. It’s just a sign that his team has been a decent bet in his starts as the Nats are 6-3 in those nine starts. He has a 3.79 ERA with a 4.06 FIP and a 4.13 xFIP over his last nine starts and one relief appearance. I don’t think people realize how he has improved, even with a LOB% still below 69 percent in that span.

Jimmy Nelson shows some signs of positive regression, hence the line move. He has a 3.75 ERA with a 3.11 FIP and a 3.17 xFIP. Nelson is having a career year from a strikeout standpoint with 181 in 163.1 innings of work. He’s also induced a few more ground balls this season. There’s a lot to like about this profile, especially because he’s cut his walk rate by 4.4 percent this season. He’s allowed 10 runs over his last 18 innings of work and that comes on the heels of allowing 10 runs in 3.2 innings to Cincinnati on August 11. It’s possible that he may be starting to wear down a little bit, though the strikeout numbers are still there. The command is waning a bit.

I think I’m looking to take a shot with the road team here. Roark is an undervalued commodity right now as far as I’m concerned and the Nationals rank third in baseball in wOBA against RHP, so this is a tough matchup for any right-hander.


Kansas City (-115) at Minnesota; Total: 9
A huge series kicks off in the Twin Cities with a pitching matchup that makes you wonder how these two teams are in contention for a playoff spot. Jason Hammel will go for the Royals and Dillon Gee will go for the Twins. Hammel has been the sharp side in this one with a 4.76 ERA, a 4.48 FIP, and a 5.00 xFIP on the year in 149.1 innings of work.

Nobody seems interested to back Dillon Gee, who has a 3.53 ERA in three starts and seven relief outings, but he also has a 4.95 FIP and a 4.66 xFIP. He has allowed seven home runs in just 35.2 innings of work. Gee made one spot start for Texas back on June 6 and has made back-to-back starts for the Twins, with five runs allowed on nine hits in 10 innings of work. He does have a 9/1 K/BB ratio, so that’s solid.

This one of those matchups I don’t like to wager on. I’m basically betting on which guy will suck less and a lot of that ends up being BABIP-dependent. I understand the move, given that Hammel is a bit more proven and we can project his performance with a little more confidence than Gee, but I’m not interested.


Arizona (-110) at Colorado; Total: 12
Taijuan Walker has taken on a little bit of money for this one, as the Diamondbacks visit Coors Field. Kyle Freeland will be on the other side for Colorado, hence the move, since he is a guy that the advanced metrics do not think highly of at all. Walker does show some modest signs of regression with a 3.55 ERA, a 4.14 FIP, and a 4.44 xFIP, so I’m a little bit surprised to see the market taking a position on him at Coors Field.

Walker is having a fine season, but he has allowed 10 of his 15 home runs over his last 50.1 innings of work. He has a 3.93 ERA with a 5.12 FIP and a 4.64 xFIP in that span. His 76.9 percent LOB% has spared him further damage. He has a higher batting average against and a higher OBP against on the road, but has a 3.03 ERA compared to a 4.11 ERA at home, with a SLG% difference of 24 points. It’s simply a LOB% thing and a BABIP thing. His road BABIP is more normal than his home BABIP, so I’d actually be looking for some home regression at some point. I’m not thrilled with the idea of backing Walker here.

Kyle Freeland has a 3.81 ERA with a 4.66 FIP and a 4.64 xFIP on the season, so I can see why the markets aren’t buying his stock. He’s an extreme ground ball guy with a knack for inducing weak ground ball contact. That’s why he’s been able to carry a .291 BABIP against and a 77.6 percent LOB%. He’s mixed in a few more strikeouts as the season has gone along, but his BABIP has steadily rose. Still, he keeps his team in games and that’s all you can ask for at Coors Field.

The Diamondbacks are fourth in wOBA against righties, but 22nd in wOBA against lefties. I think there’s a smoke and mirrors element about this offense and you can see that in the season-long splits with RISP, where the Diamondbacks still have a .311 BABIP. They were leading the league for a while, but have regressed over the last couple of months.

I know Arizona is and has been the better team this season, but there are some factors that have me leaning towards the Rockies. Not the least of which is that the Diamondbacks just swept the Dodgers. They’re up 3.5 on the Rockies in the NL Wild Card. There’s a little bit of a “fat and happy” sense with this team coming into this series I believe. The Rockies are only 2.5 up on the Brewers, so desperation is setting in a little bit. I think their backs are far closer to the wall than the Diamondbacks, so I’m looking to buy the Rockies tonight and in this series.


Oakland at Seattle (-115); Total: 9.5
I’m taking the A’s tonight. I was a bit surprised to see that American League teams were interested in Mike Leake and the money remaining on that contract. Leake, who has never pitched in the AL, has a 4.21 ERA with a 4.21 FIP and a 4.00 xFIP this season. He’s very reliant on BABIP-luck and has carried some good LOB% in his career at times. Over the last two seasons, he hasn’t. Health has been a factor, as Leake had a battle with shingles last year that zapped some of his strength.

To me, this move looks a lot like the Tigers signing Jordan Zimmermann. It’s a profile that can work in the NL, where the pitcher hits and there are more elements of small ball and things of that sort. I don’t think it will translate to the American League as well. Leake has a 15.8 percent K%. If we sort qualified AL pitchers by lowest K%, we see Andrew Cashner, who is luckboxing his way to a 3.30 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and a 5.21 xFIP. Martin Perez has a 14.2 percent K% and a 4.89 ERA. Miguel Gonzalez has a 4.31/4.56/5.55 slash with a 14.5 percent K%. Jordan Zmmermann has a 6.08 ERA. Alex Cobb, Michael Fulmer, and Jason Vargas are the only ones with an ERA under 4.00 among the 12 lowest K% pitchers in the AL. I don’t see it as a sustainable profile for the Junior Circuit. I think Leake is in for a rude awakening. Also, for a pitcher that has openly talked about having a hard time maintaining his strength between starts, a trade to the Pacific Northwest this late in the year that uproots his family and puts a strain on his body clock is not a great move in my mind.

I like Sean Manaea a lot. He has struggled, with a 4.55/4.10/4.46 pitcher slash. The A’s are awful. But look at the line on this game. That should tell you what you need to know about how Leake is rated as an AL pitcher.

I’m on the visitors today.


St. Louis (-110) at San Francisco; Total: 8.5
Jack Flaherty will make his Major League debut at AT&T Park on Friday night for the St. Louis Cardinals in the spot previously occupied by Mike Leake. The Giants will counter with Johnny Cueto.

Flaherty had a 2.74 ERA with a 4.10 FIP and a 4.07 xFIP in 15 starts at Triple-A. He had a 1.42/2.31/2.94 in 10 starts at Double-A. So, this is a kid that has been making a rapid rise up the ranks and is only 21 years old. On the season, he’s got a 147/35 K/BB ratio and he has allowed 12 home runs, with 10 of those coming in Triple-A. It’s an interesting profile to say the least, as a big right-hander that doesn’t have a lot of mileage on his arm. He was predominantly a third baseman in high school, but started pitching during his junior year. As a senior, he had a breakout season and that was that. He’s carried some impressive pop up rates in the minor leagues, so he either mixes pitches really well or has some rise to that fastball that makes guys hit the bottom of the ball. It seems like AT&T Park would be a good fit for Flaherty.

One of the most intriguing stories of the rest of the season was supposed to be Johnny Cueto. Cueto has an opt out in his contract, but he’s been limited to 115.2 innings this season and hasn’t pitched well. He has a 4.59 ERA with a 4.65 FIP and a 4.42 xFIP. HE won’t get $21M per on the open market, so he’s better off riding this thing out. It seemed like Cueto wanted to exercise that option, but forearm troubles and bad pitching haven’t helped his cause. The Giants are also an awful defensive team.

This will be Cueto’s first MLB start since July 14, so that’s usually a stay away or fade spot for me. I have no interest in backing pitchers that are coming off the DL. He made a rehab start on July 31 and they shut him down. He pitched at Triple-A and worked three scoreless on August 22, but then gave up eight runs on nine hits in 3.2 innings in a High-A start on August 27.

I understand the line move and I’ll be looking to back the Cardinals, even with the long trip west.

 

[Pesos]

Trend Report

CLEVELAND vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Detroit's last 12 games at home
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

ATLANTA vs. CHI CUBS
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games at home

TORONTO vs. BALTIMORE
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Baltimore's last 21 games when playing Toronto

CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 18 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

BOSTON vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games
NY Yankees are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Boston

PHILADELPHIA vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

CLEVELAND vs. DETROIT
Cleveland 4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Cleveland 11-2-1 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games ,when playing Cleveland
Detroit is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,when playing at home against Cleveland

LA ANGELS vs. TEXAS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing Texas
LA Angels are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Texas
Texas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games at home

NY METS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games on the road
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets

KANSAS CITY vs. MINNESOTA
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Minnesota is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

TAMPA BAY vs. CHI WHITE SOX
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games

WASHINGTON vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Washington

ARIZONA vs. COLORADO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 10 games when playing Arizona

OAKLAND vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

LA DODGERS vs. SAN DIEGO
LA Dodgers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games when playing San Diego
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Dodgers

ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
San Francisco is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis

 

[Pesos]

Umpire Assignments

Atlanta at Chi. Cubs
Umpire Trends - Fieldin Culbreth

Home team is 5-0 in Culbreths last 5 Friday games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 games with Culbreth behind home plate.
Home team is 12-2 in Culbreths last 14 games behind home plate vs. Chicago.
Home team is 14-3 in Culbreths last 17 Friday games behind home plate.
Under is 7-2 in Culbreths last 9 Friday games behind home plate.
Home team is 8-3 in Culbreths last 11 games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
Home team is 37-14 in Culbreths last 51 games behind home plate.
Over is 5-2-2 in Culbreths last 9 games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.

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Toronto at Baltimore
Umpire Trends - Pat Hoberg

Over is 6-0 in Hobergs last 6 Friday games behind home plate.
Road team is 4-1 in Hobergs last 5 games behind home plate.
Over is 9-4-1 in Hobergs last 14 games behind home plate.

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Boston at NY Yankees
Umpire Trends - Tripp Gibson III

Road team is 4-0 in Gibson IIIs last 4 games behind home plate.
Road team is 5-2 in Gibson IIIs last 7 games behind home plate vs. Boston.
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Gibson III behind home plate.

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Philadelphia at Miami
Umpire Trends - Dan Iassogna

Home team is 4-0 in Iassognas last 4 Friday games behind home plate.
Home team is 6-0 in Iassognas last 6 games behind home plate vs. Miami.
Home team is 4-0 in Iassognas last 4 Friday games behind home plate vs. Philadelphia.
Over is 4-1 in Iassognas last 5 Friday games behind home plate.
Under is 24-8-1 in Iassognas last 33 games behind home plate vs. Miami.
Home team is 38-18 in Iassognas last 56 games behind home plate.
Phillies are 4-10 in their last 14 games with Iassogna behind home plate.
Marlins are 6-23 in their last 29 games with Iassogna behind home plate.
Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 Friday games with Iassogna behind home plate.

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Washington at Milwaukee
Umpire Trends - Mark Ripperger

Road team is 6-0 in Rippergers last 6 games behind home plate vs. Washington.
Under is 4-1-1 in Rippergers last 6 games behind home plate.
Over is 4-1-1 in Rippergers last 6 games behind home plate vs. Washington.
Under is 6-2 in Rippergers last 8 games behind home plate vs. Milwaukee.
Road team is 5-2 in Rippergers last 7 games behind home plate.
Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 games with Ripperger behind home plate.

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St. Louis at San Francisco
Umpire Trends - Tom Woodring

Over is 3-0-1 in Woodrings last 4 games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
Over is 6-1 in Woodrings last 7 games behind home plate.
Home team is 11-5 in Woodrings last 16 games behind home plate.
Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 games with Woodring behind home plate.

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[Pesos]

Alex Smart; CFB

Navy -12.5

 

[Pesos]

Doc's Sports ; CFB

Rutgers +27.5