Al DeMarco
Friday's Play 10 Dime - BOSTON RED SOX
Note - For the first 5 minutes this play was posted, above it said "atlanta" but CLEARLY if you read any sentence of the analysis below - which was posted simultaneously with the pick - you clearly realized the play was on boston because I didn't say one good thing about the braves tonight.
And that is why I always post both together because occasionally typos will occur but I know when you read the analysis, it always dispels all doubts.
Josh Beckett bounced back quickly from a poor effort at Philadelphia on June 14 in which he was tagged for 11 hits and seven runs (six earned) in six innings by firing a five-hit shutout against Atlanta at home last Saturday, a game in which he fanned seven and walked none, needing just 94 pitches to go the distance. Tonight he faces the Braves again, this time on the road, as Boston looks to improve to 11-4 behind its ace righthander.
Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens absorbed a no-decision in his Fenway Park start last Sunday, allowing eight hits and five runs (two earned) in 6.1 innings of work, but the game marked the fourth straight outing the Braves have lost with the righthander on the mound. And Jurrjens has actually pitched better on the road this year (3-2 with a 2.44 ERA in eight starts) than at home (2-3 with a 3.43 ERA in seven starts). Those numbers might seem comparable, and the earned run averages are both outstanding in this era of offense, but a more telling statistic is the number of baserunners he's allowed: 55 in 48 road innings versus 57 in 39.1 home innings. That alone tells you why his home ERA is nearly a full run higher.
Boston had its four-game winning streak snapped with last night's home loss to Washington, a game the Red Sox were out of after the first-inning in John Smoltz's debut. A team that struggled mightily on the road earlier this season has actually played well in its infrequent excursions from Fenway of late, taking two-of-three at Philadelphia and sweeping a three-game series at Detroit. In all, Boston is on a 6-1 roll on the road.
Considering Beckett is 5-0 with a 0.45 ERA in his last six starts against the Braves, this price it too good to pass up. And two of Atlanta's top hitters, Chipper Jones (5-for-28) and Brian McCann (3-for-14), have struggled against the Red Sox hurler in previous meetings. Then again, Beckett has been tough on everyone of late as his ERA is 1.44 in his last six starts.
The Red Sox have won 16 of their last 22 and they've lost two in a row just once in that stretch. I'm betting against a repeat performance tonight as they bounce back from last night's home loss with a win against the Braves, whom they've beaten in 10 of the last 13 meetings. And Atlanta enters tonight's contest mired in an 11-18 skid with an overworked bullpen that was called on to work 12 innings in consecutive loses the past two nights against the Yankees
hno:
