Bah Humbug. On a terrible 6 game losing streak, the worst of the year. The unpredictable keeps happening even on games I'm not playing. The contrarian bettor is winning and the books. Boston College and Maryland have a scorefest! Idaho scores 61! Miami,OH should have won today, but easily covered vs. an SEC team. Navy's 3rd string QB plays way beyond expectations. Vandy sucks, but that's nothing new. Anyways, here's what I got for the next 2 days:
2* WSU-10 Minnesota's troubles are just so recent, and I am thinking that there is way too much drama going on behind the scenes there for them to concentrate on this bowl game. I actually think this is a bigger factor than the depletion of their secondary due to the suspensions. The coach might be a lame duck and the players might sense that, the 10 players might never return and they have friends on the team, the lingering of unfairness due to lack of due process(in their mind), the thought of transferring.... Wazzu is long overdue for a big performance in a bowl game, and I think this one means a lot. The Cougs have an underrated defense and a running game, both of which are nice along with their air attack. The news of Luke Falk returning for his senior year has to bring a positive vibe to recent practices
1* Wake Forest +12 Wake really has a comatose offense, but they seem to find a way to keep games close. This is a team who did get to keep their coach, and I think will play with a chip on their shoulder due to the Wakegate scandal. Wake's D is not as good as Temple's, but it is pretty decent considering the tougher schedule. They will totally concentrate on the Temple run game and dare Philip Walker to beat them. Temple lost HC Rhule and about to lose more coaches after the bowl game due to them joining Rhule in Baylor. The Temple players have to be thinking", You're leaving us for freaking Baylor and it's complete mess of a football program? Really?"
5* Utah -6 Kyle Whittingham is one of the better bowl prep coaches. He has a team that faded late, but with the time off they'll be reinvigorated. Utah is good enough on both sides of the ball, and on special teams, to make this game one-sided if Indiana is a little off their game- which I think they will. Their coach is fired after a successful season for player mistreatment, now coached by the DC, and I'm not sensing a lot of excitement there. Former coach Kevin Wilson created a culture of fear at Indiana according to some players, but I doubt all the players agree on this. Wilson also elevated their game so that they were competitive even against the best Big 10 teams. Indiana is also turnover prone so with the time off, and some rustiness, that could help a well-coached team like Utah cover this number.
4* WVU +3(-120) West Virginia is another team that faded late in the season, like Utah, but is very solid across the board. WVU has the kind of D that plays well in space and tackles well. Miami has a number of suspensions, but only one player is a major contributor. What it does say is that Miami still has disciplinary issues and at times they show it by being sloppy on the field. They're very young, and though talented, still make to many mistakes and commit too many penalties. With QB Brad Kaaya, WVU has to exert pressure on his pocket. His OL is none too good, and he gets rattled or looks hurried if the pressure is relentless. Besides he has a pro career to think about. WVU"s Justin Crawford has a huge game, and shows he's the best college RB no one knows much about.
2* WSU-10 Minnesota's troubles are just so recent, and I am thinking that there is way too much drama going on behind the scenes there for them to concentrate on this bowl game. I actually think this is a bigger factor than the depletion of their secondary due to the suspensions. The coach might be a lame duck and the players might sense that, the 10 players might never return and they have friends on the team, the lingering of unfairness due to lack of due process(in their mind), the thought of transferring.... Wazzu is long overdue for a big performance in a bowl game, and I think this one means a lot. The Cougs have an underrated defense and a running game, both of which are nice along with their air attack. The news of Luke Falk returning for his senior year has to bring a positive vibe to recent practices
1* Wake Forest +12 Wake really has a comatose offense, but they seem to find a way to keep games close. This is a team who did get to keep their coach, and I think will play with a chip on their shoulder due to the Wakegate scandal. Wake's D is not as good as Temple's, but it is pretty decent considering the tougher schedule. They will totally concentrate on the Temple run game and dare Philip Walker to beat them. Temple lost HC Rhule and about to lose more coaches after the bowl game due to them joining Rhule in Baylor. The Temple players have to be thinking", You're leaving us for freaking Baylor and it's complete mess of a football program? Really?"
5* Utah -6 Kyle Whittingham is one of the better bowl prep coaches. He has a team that faded late, but with the time off they'll be reinvigorated. Utah is good enough on both sides of the ball, and on special teams, to make this game one-sided if Indiana is a little off their game- which I think they will. Their coach is fired after a successful season for player mistreatment, now coached by the DC, and I'm not sensing a lot of excitement there. Former coach Kevin Wilson created a culture of fear at Indiana according to some players, but I doubt all the players agree on this. Wilson also elevated their game so that they were competitive even against the best Big 10 teams. Indiana is also turnover prone so with the time off, and some rustiness, that could help a well-coached team like Utah cover this number.
4* WVU +3(-120) West Virginia is another team that faded late in the season, like Utah, but is very solid across the board. WVU has the kind of D that plays well in space and tackles well. Miami has a number of suspensions, but only one player is a major contributor. What it does say is that Miami still has disciplinary issues and at times they show it by being sloppy on the field. They're very young, and though talented, still make to many mistakes and commit too many penalties. With QB Brad Kaaya, WVU has to exert pressure on his pocket. His OL is none too good, and he gets rattled or looks hurried if the pressure is relentless. Besides he has a pro career to think about. WVU"s Justin Crawford has a huge game, and shows he's the best college RB no one knows much about.
Two Utah fumbles in the 4th quarter killed that play. What a bad run… One for tomorrow I really like, but might be good fade material the way it's going.
7* Colorado -3 This game is kind of reset for Colorado. They had a great season, and lost 2 competitive games to USC and Michigan before getting beat badly by Washington in the PAC 12 championship. They kind of ran out of gas at that point. But this Colorado team has a very tough D, with a secondary that can handle OSU's offense. The vibe for Colorado is very positive, while Okie State is getting a sloppy seconds bowl (for them) and HC Gundy seems to be entertaining offers from other schools. Colorado QB Sefo Liafau is finally healed from his myriad of minor injuries, and I think he wills his team to victory here. If Colorado loses it won't be for lack of effort or enthusiasm.
7* Colorado -3 This game is kind of reset for Colorado. They had a great season, and lost 2 competitive games to USC and Michigan before getting beat badly by Washington in the PAC 12 championship. They kind of ran out of gas at that point. But this Colorado team has a very tough D, with a secondary that can handle OSU's offense. The vibe for Colorado is very positive, while Okie State is getting a sloppy seconds bowl (for them) and HC Gundy seems to be entertaining offers from other schools. Colorado QB Sefo Liafau is finally healed from his myriad of minor injuries, and I think he wills his team to victory here. If Colorado loses it won't be for lack of effort or enthusiasm.
At this point you have to look at conference match ups.
ACC was 4-1 ATS with some impressive covers going into the VT game, Arkansas's SEC was 1-2 with only cover a SU loss by South Carolina to an AA team.
Big 12 was 2-1 with two decisive covers when Ok St played Colorado, a Pac 12 team, 0-2 thus far.
It matters.
Not the only approach, but something to look at.
Tomorrow, TCU is not steady but The Big 12 is 3-1 ATS so far whereas Gerogia's SEC is 1-3.
ACC was 4-1 ATS with some impressive covers going into the VT game, Arkansas's SEC was 1-2 with only cover a SU loss by South Carolina to an AA team.
Big 12 was 2-1 with two decisive covers when Ok St played Colorado, a Pac 12 team, 0-2 thus far.
It matters.
Not the only approach, but something to look at.
Tomorrow, TCU is not steady but The Big 12 is 3-1 ATS so far whereas Gerogia's SEC is 1-3.
Did a lot better since I've stopped posting. Haven't totaled up the bowl losses on posted plays, but it's got to be in the 20s. Overall, still up for the season and these will likely be my last plays:
9* Clemson +6.5
1* Clemson ML +225
Watched both games Saturday closely, and I have to say that Alabama could have EASILY not covered there. Their defense once again saved them in the last 3 quarters, but the defensive TD and Scarborough's amazing run gave them the cover. Otherwise, QB Hurts looked really afraid to pass the ball. Hurts looked indecisive, his running lanes closed quickly, and I'm not sure he can complete much more than a 10 yard pass. Alabama had great field position all day, but rarely did anything except go backwards. Hurts is lucky he didn't have a couple of turnovers. Washington also made the mistake of not going max protection at times, and going deep or medium in their pass plays. What did they have to lose? The only way to beat this Alabama defense is with a QB more mobile than Jake Locker(who isn't too bad). Watson can not only pass well while moving, but he can also run himself for a decent gain- something Locker couldn't do very well. I think there is a good chance Clemson wins this game so I'll settle for the 6.5 instead paying -130 for the 1/2 point.
3* Auburn +3 Based on what I'm seeing in this bowl season, high flying offenses are NOT picking up where they left off in the regular season. Also, it seems that top NFL draft prospects are either not playing or not playing well in many cases(playing to not get injured?)- like Dede Westbrook and Baker Mayfield. Auburn has nothing to lose here and I expect they'll be super aggressive defensively. Just looking at this paltry spread of only 3 against the best offense arguably in college ball tells me that the books expect Auburn to either win or keep it close. Auburn should be able to gouge the Sooner defense running the ball, and Sean White is in my opinion a bit underrated as a passer. Malzahn finally has enough of an offense to scheme for something unpredictable and creative.
9* Clemson +6.5
1* Clemson ML +225
Watched both games Saturday closely, and I have to say that Alabama could have EASILY not covered there. Their defense once again saved them in the last 3 quarters, but the defensive TD and Scarborough's amazing run gave them the cover. Otherwise, QB Hurts looked really afraid to pass the ball. Hurts looked indecisive, his running lanes closed quickly, and I'm not sure he can complete much more than a 10 yard pass. Alabama had great field position all day, but rarely did anything except go backwards. Hurts is lucky he didn't have a couple of turnovers. Washington also made the mistake of not going max protection at times, and going deep or medium in their pass plays. What did they have to lose? The only way to beat this Alabama defense is with a QB more mobile than Jake Locker(who isn't too bad). Watson can not only pass well while moving, but he can also run himself for a decent gain- something Locker couldn't do very well. I think there is a good chance Clemson wins this game so I'll settle for the 6.5 instead paying -130 for the 1/2 point.
3* Auburn +3 Based on what I'm seeing in this bowl season, high flying offenses are NOT picking up where they left off in the regular season. Also, it seems that top NFL draft prospects are either not playing or not playing well in many cases(playing to not get injured?)- like Dede Westbrook and Baker Mayfield. Auburn has nothing to lose here and I expect they'll be super aggressive defensively. Just looking at this paltry spread of only 3 against the best offense arguably in college ball tells me that the books expect Auburn to either win or keep it close. Auburn should be able to gouge the Sooner defense running the ball, and Sean White is in my opinion a bit underrated as a passer. Malzahn finally has enough of an offense to scheme for something unpredictable and creative.
1* WMU +8.5 This play is for a little more than a 1*. WMU has the kind of offense that can likely score on anybody not named Alabama. Wisconsin will likely win this game because of their ability to limit WMU's offense, but I don't think they'll be altogether successful. Wisconsin is also the kind of large favorite that has a hard time covering these kinds of games because of their own conservative play calling and QB mediocrity. The WMU QB(Terrell) and top WR(Davis) are both good enough to star in the Big 10. Wisconsin's defense showed some vulnerability vs. Penn State's pass happy offense in their 2nd half of the Big 10 CG.
1* Iowa +3 Florida is loaded with defensive NFL talent, but many of them are either not playing or playing hurt. Florida plays offense with a sieve for an OL, and a running game that has been awful for 2-3 years now. Iowa played well at the end of the season, and is more like last year's team now more than ever. I'll take the team with the much better running game.
Lean: Penn State +7 Too much love for USC especially considering how bad the PAC 12 has been this bowl season. Could be that they are a bit overrated due to their schedule. Penn State showed a lot in their CG 2nd half, and with a thin USC DL, they can put up the points. I do like Sam Darnold's game a lot, but he is a freshman. USC has not played well in bowl games when the competition has been good. Not playing Fresno here.
1* Iowa +3 Florida is loaded with defensive NFL talent, but many of them are either not playing or playing hurt. Florida plays offense with a sieve for an OL, and a running game that has been awful for 2-3 years now. Iowa played well at the end of the season, and is more like last year's team now more than ever. I'll take the team with the much better running game.
Lean: Penn State +7 Too much love for USC especially considering how bad the PAC 12 has been this bowl season. Could be that they are a bit overrated due to their schedule. Penn State showed a lot in their CG 2nd half, and with a thin USC DL, they can put up the points. I do like Sam Darnold's game a lot, but he is a freshman. USC has not played well in bowl games when the competition has been good. Not playing Fresno here.
