Holysmoke, that's a good analyis there but the key to look at is the "really close states" both ways. Of the 5 states they have within 2%, 3 of them are currently Bush states with 52 EV's whilst just 2 of them are Kerry states with 17 EV's.
All this map watching and state listing is overkill anyway. It's all up to Ohio and Fla. If Bush wins both, he wins. If he doesn't, he loses. Ohio and Florida, the rest is superfluous...
And that's why I believe Kerry is a solid value at +145. Kerry is a dog in both states, but like I said, he only needs one of them. If you believe tradesports and other statewide odds, Bush has roughly a 58-60% chance in Ohio and a 64-66% chance in Florida. But if he needs both, us gamblers know that is a parlay, and we know well how to calulate that. Even at 60% and 66%, his chance to win BOTH would only be 40%.
Meaning that the wrong team is the -150 favorite.