So am I anti-life? What ridiculous sayings these all are. A 3 week old fetus is just that, nothing more. WHo is anyone to tell a woman what she is supposed to do with her body. By the way, exactly how would you stop abortions even if it was illegal? Women would simply get them in shady places and run the risk of death. Where there is a will there's a way.
Let's look at it this way....for those of you who agree with me that it comes down to Ohio and Florida, with Bush needing both to win. In order for -150 to be the "correct odds" of Bush winning, Bush would need to be around -340 in both Ohio and Florida -- a 77% chance of winning each. The markets say otherwise, and most rational observers would say otherwise.
But the reason why , I think, the line does not accurately reflect this is we have bettors who are not necessarily sharp odds people who are plunking down dollars on this. The average square would see two items that have a 2 out of 3 chance to happen and he would think there is greater than a 50% chance that both will happen. Of course us sharps know he is wrong.
I think sharps are on Kerry.
But the reason why , I think, the line does not accurately reflect this is we have bettors who are not necessarily sharp odds people who are plunking down dollars on this. The average square would see two items that have a 2 out of 3 chance to happen and he would think there is greater than a 50% chance that both will happen. Of course us sharps know he is wrong.
I think sharps are on Kerry.
abortion is a personal choice? personal to who...the baby being murdered? oh you mean a personal choice for the woman choosing to kill her baby. ok...gotcha.
tell me, why is scott peterson being charged with two murders? his wife had not given birth to the child at the time of the murder...is it because he chose to kill the child rather than laci choosing to kill the child? what if she wasn't 8 months pregnant...what if she was 5 months pregnant? then does scott peterson get charged with two murders? one and a half murders?
by the way, post all the predictions you want...bush wins and it won't be close.
tell me, why is scott peterson being charged with two murders? his wife had not given birth to the child at the time of the murder...is it because he chose to kill the child rather than laci choosing to kill the child? what if she wasn't 8 months pregnant...what if she was 5 months pregnant? then does scott peterson get charged with two murders? one and a half murders?
by the way, post all the predictions you want...bush wins and it won't be close.
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The site electoral-vote.com is not a very accurate one, period. They have numerous mistakes on it. Nevada is definitely going to go for Bush, they have it for Kerry. Florida is a toss-up, and they have it for Kerry. Wisconsin is also a tossup and they have it for Kerry. It really does come down to just a few key states. If Bush wins Ohio and Florida it's over. I thought all along Kerry had to win Florida to have a shot, and now it is close enough to make people think it is possible.
If you want a more accurate site try realpolitics.com - they are definitely pro Bush but they have the accurate polls if you look at their electoral college map and right now they have it Bush 227 Kerry 220 with toss up states Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, NM, and Me.
You can then go to their battleground states and see the up to date polls. Things change everyday, but it looks like the key states will be Ohio and Flordia, plus Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico. Even though they list Penn as a tossup I think Kerry wins it and I think Bush wins Florida. If Kerry wins Ohio then this is going to be extremely close and Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico will decide this.
Just another site for anyone interested to compare and track things, just in case you are interested.
Bill
If you want a more accurate site try realpolitics.com - they are definitely pro Bush but they have the accurate polls if you look at their electoral college map and right now they have it Bush 227 Kerry 220 with toss up states Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, NM, and Me.
You can then go to their battleground states and see the up to date polls. Things change everyday, but it looks like the key states will be Ohio and Flordia, plus Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico. Even though they list Penn as a tossup I think Kerry wins it and I think Bush wins Florida. If Kerry wins Ohio then this is going to be extremely close and Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico will decide this.
Just another site for anyone interested to compare and track things, just in case you are interested.
Bill
Personal to the mother for who's cooperation the potential baby requires. I know of no other situation in the law that requires somebody to take such substantial action to sustain the life of another. If you told me I had to do something for 9 months that would completely change my life and require unbelievably special attention in order for you to live....I would have pause and I certainly would ot appreciate being forced to do it.blue edwards said:
Personally, I've come to the conclusion that it is not right for men to decide this issue since it is so personal and peculiar to women only.
By the way, another favorite site of mine to check is Republican driven, but they try and be as objective as possible...
www.realclearpolitics.com
www.realclearpolitics.com
what are all of these pro bush sites going to say after they lose? theyre hurting their own businesses worth with their own femininistic emotions. like a bunch of irrational whores with their legs spread open. too freakn funny. go stare at some more stained glass with pics of rob funk on it cuz youre bored with big mans words losers
D2Bets
interesting points.
Can I counter that I dont think that the winner of Ohio and the winner of Florida are independent events.
IF a huge group of people slightly go for Bush on Nov 2nd in Ohio its very probable that a huge group will slightly go for Bush in Florida on Nov 2nd.
In other words the same forces that nudge it one way or the other will work the same on both states.
Let me say it this way, there is a 75% chance the same guy wins both states. ITs not like your calculations of independent events.
If you could parlay Ohio and Florida at a sportsbook that would be a great bet. Bet them both ways, one parlay Bush one KErry.
Any sprotsbooks out there allowing any loose parlays on this election?
interesting points.
Can I counter that I dont think that the winner of Ohio and the winner of Florida are independent events.
IF a huge group of people slightly go for Bush on Nov 2nd in Ohio its very probable that a huge group will slightly go for Bush in Florida on Nov 2nd.
In other words the same forces that nudge it one way or the other will work the same on both states.
Let me say it this way, there is a 75% chance the same guy wins both states. ITs not like your calculations of independent events.
If you could parlay Ohio and Florida at a sportsbook that would be a great bet. Bet them both ways, one parlay Bush one KErry.
Any sprotsbooks out there allowing any loose parlays on this election?
Good post trytrytry.
Nice post, there is definitely some non-independence between th two. However, the states are somewhat different type situations, geographically and demographically, and if you believe both will be extremely close then it is not hard to see how they could get split. But you make a good point. Still, if you can bet Bush -150 overall or Bush -150 Ohio I cannot imagien why not to just bet Ohio between those, unless you really believe Bush can lose Ohio and still win.
blue,
There would be a little more dicsussion than that, but I absolutely would respect her choice since it's not me carrying the child. And I certainly would not want THE GOVERNMENT telling her what to do and what not to do, under the threat of arrest.
Nice post, there is definitely some non-independence between th two. However, the states are somewhat different type situations, geographically and demographically, and if you believe both will be extremely close then it is not hard to see how they could get split. But you make a good point. Still, if you can bet Bush -150 overall or Bush -150 Ohio I cannot imagien why not to just bet Ohio between those, unless you really believe Bush can lose Ohio and still win.
blue,
There would be a little more dicsussion than that, but I absolutely would respect her choice since it's not me carrying the child. And I certainly would not want THE GOVERNMENT telling her what to do and what not to do, under the threat of arrest.
d2, can you really honestly tell me that if she chose to "abort" a pregnancy that you wanted that you wouldn't feel she took your son/daughter? maybe you have a different kind of marriage but, i would think that a scenario like the one in my example that ends in an abortion would result in a divorce or at the very least, deep feelings of animosity between the two parents.D2bets said:
