In the NCAA it is almost NO factor whatsoever.
Posted this the other day over at the other placeFirst things first.
It (my NCAA football database) has 15331 games in it.
Secondly, "pushes" on 3--- 33 since 1980. THAT is amazing. Totals games closing -3 636. So obviously the 3 isn't as big a number in college as it is in the NFL. Only 636 of 15331 games closed on it. So what we see is that 33/636 is a 5.2% push rate. Pretty insignificant.
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5.2% push rate make it worth just about a dime, if andonly if you couldn't have gotten -2.5 or +3.5 somewhere else or at another time.
That is the more important part of this argument. Of the 65 games that closed -3 and pushed -3 that I cite, 31 of them were widely available at other numbers during the week, or at differing books. Granted with some increased vig both ways, but they were still available.
I have to think this question in in direct relation to the Bears/Panthers game this week. Where you can get Car -2.5 -114, or you can buy them to -3 +105 (now) maybe they were +110, but I highly doubt it.
That is Pinnacle's split, so if they are only charging 19 cents to do it, I know for a fact that me saying it is worth 12-14 is a lot more accurate than saying it is worth 23 cents. Pinnacle isn't going to give you a chance to do something and pay LESS than they think it is worth, they always overcharge for it.
But the debate wioth that line makes it all moot, since all my numbers and results are based on games that CLOSE -3, not 2.5 games that land on 3. I CAN do that if you want, but since people don't really care about actual data, and only what sounds right, I won't bother unless someone wants to see it.
Posted this the other day over at the other placeFirst things first.
It (my NCAA football database) has 15331 games in it.
Secondly, "pushes" on 3--- 33 since 1980. THAT is amazing. Totals games closing -3 636. So obviously the 3 isn't as big a number in college as it is in the NFL. Only 636 of 15331 games closed on it. So what we see is that 33/636 is a 5.2% push rate. Pretty insignificant.
...
5.2% push rate make it worth just about a dime, if andonly if you couldn't have gotten -2.5 or +3.5 somewhere else or at another time.
That is the more important part of this argument. Of the 65 games that closed -3 and pushed -3 that I cite, 31 of them were widely available at other numbers during the week, or at differing books. Granted with some increased vig both ways, but they were still available.
I have to think this question in in direct relation to the Bears/Panthers game this week. Where you can get Car -2.5 -114, or you can buy them to -3 +105 (now) maybe they were +110, but I highly doubt it.
That is Pinnacle's split, so if they are only charging 19 cents to do it, I know for a fact that me saying it is worth 12-14 is a lot more accurate than saying it is worth 23 cents. Pinnacle isn't going to give you a chance to do something and pay LESS than they think it is worth, they always overcharge for it.
But the debate wioth that line makes it all moot, since all my numbers and results are based on games that CLOSE -3, not 2.5 games that land on 3. I CAN do that if you want, but since people don't really care about actual data, and only what sounds right, I won't bother unless someone wants to see it.